60+ Runners
45 left
Blinds 300/600 50 ante
10K starting stack

Folds to cutoff who is young TAG, nothing out of line so far. Raises to 1300. 15K stack.
The button is young TAG regular. Raises to 3500. 18K stack
Hero is older guy in SB w QQ and 14K stack.

Thought about two lines. Flat, see flop assuming original raiser doesn't go crazy, then decide next step. If original raiser shoves, then evaluate based on what button does. Or, Shove w 20+BB.

Any thoughts about cautious vs aggressive approach at this point? Fast structure. Need to get chips. Hate putting 1/4 of my stack in then folding, but the dynamic to stay in the game vs getting lots of chips comes up all the time. Obviously never folding. Am I missing something? Thoughts? Thanks.

I see jam . We have perfect stack for jam. What to expect from 25bb stack
call is basically faceuphand jjqq-

Jam over cutoff open/button 3-bet. The cutoff should be relatively wide and a conservative range for the button to 3-bet would be TT-AA, AK and AQs. Against that range we're something like 53%.

Obviously we're sometimes going to run into monsters but we can't play one of the strongest hands in our range passively, especially when we're relatively short and nowhere near a ticket.

Standard aipf

assuming that there are 6-7 tickets to win this is a very std jam, actually pretty happy to get it in. so unless this mtt has the sickest overlay ever with 43 or so tickets to win this is a jam all day.

never call, shove or fold

given the tiny % of structure (non shove) 3-bets we see in these sats, i'm wouldn't hate on a tight fold with reads if you think V2 is strongly weighted to KK+.

however, if V2 has any potential light 3! range or would value raise JJ/AK or worse to 3500 here, then it's a jam. not a fist pump though.

i'd never call. the bits you're missing are (i) jamming pre almost doubles your stack without showdown which is the gilt-edged approach to winning sats (ii) your image will be super strong on a cold 4bet from a 50+ veteran holding a coffee and talking about grandkids - so you fold out all the Ax Kx stuff you're worried about, including AK from V1 and possibly even from V2. and if they have KK+ in an accurate range that includes JJ/AK and wider then so-be-it you go broke on a cooler, but you would have done that on J-flops anyway

I'm jamming.

Given CO's range should be somewhat wide, BTN can be raising with AJ+/99+. It would be great to get BTN to fold AJ/AQ

Also, while unlikely, V1 could lay down AK which would be a major victory. And V1 could lay down a PP which would increase our chances of winning.

pretty much this