Blinds are 200/400 with 50 ante. Hero has about 32K. Table is super soft with a bunch of amateurs and hero has been playing pretty tight solid poker not showing down too many hands or getting out of line. Hadn’t 3bet much at the table.

A splashy player opens from MP to 1100. This player was pounding beers, acting obnoxiously and making a big show about how drunk he was but if you really paid attentiom, you’d see he was playing pretty straightforward ABC poker.

I 3bet from CO with AhQh to 3500 and get cold-called by Villain in BTN. Everyone else including drunk guy folds.

Villain is a Team Winamax pro. Not sure of his name but he seemed strong and had been playing reasonably tight solid poker as well.

About 9K in the flop and 29K behind now. Villain covers.

Flop comes 7d6h5h. Action goes check check.

Turn is Tc. Check check.

River is Ac. I bet half pot.

Line check?

fyp...he may just have a high tolerance (if he folds anything here.)

given the tendency for hands like 88;99 and JJ to probe turn, you may actually be against AK here a pretty high % of the time. Not that you should check but given how capped you are, a good villain can have a pretty easy value raise with AK.

I have no idea if any Winamax Pros are any good but there also is a chance that vill can turn 88 or 99 into a bluff and c/r river.

These spots are kinda rare but it might be > as part of an overall strat to stab turn here at some freq. Most villain's are capped after checking 2x + folds out AK and gets some more $ in there if we hit a heart otr. We can still have overpairs if we assume that Winamax guy could widen his cold-calling range (to include 77 and 88) in order to get into a pot with drunk/drunk-acting guy.

^^^we are OOP here just to be clear

Gotta bet the tron

Sorry got positions confused...my bad...delayed cbet turn at some freq...otr vill is much more capped than u and heavily weighted to AK, so betting wAQ becomes a little thinner too.

what do we think villain’s preflop range is here. Do we think it’s weighted more towards hands that aren’t quite strong enough to 4bet like AK/JJ? Or do we think he’s more likely to 4bet those hands and cold call when he’s trapping with AA? Or do we think he just cold calls his entire premium range here?

How much AK he has here vs. high pocket pairs has huge implications on how we play this IMO.

need his stack size but in gen most MTT pros won't cold4ball AK here (80bbs eff) with no read/hist live. So i'd give him almost every combo of AK, along with 77*-JJ and maybe 75% of QQ...i don't see him ever tarping AA with the fish possibly coming in too.

*std coldcall range should be 99-JJ/most QQ;AK but with drunk/drunk-acting guy vill could expand and add a couple more PPs. Obv if drunk/drunk-acting guy can get outta line pre then vill has to be much tighter.

I would really lean towards blocking the river for ~30% and decide/prob fold vs a raise...don't really like c/c at all since we are sure he's capped but uncertain about this range in gen. Not saying 50% is a big sizing here but given the action, i don't think that's the optimal sizing.

^^^ villain had me covered by a bit but not a lot. Guessing he was between 35-40k

Isn’t the fish being in the pot more of a reason to slow play KK+?

And as for 4betting AK. He has to know that my 3bet range is a bit wider than usual to try to isolate the fish so I think there’s def value in 4betting AK.

That’s why I thought that villain’s range might be more weighted towards high pocket pairs but maybe I’m leveling myself.

Range seems to be JJ AA AQ mid pp. I think we need to bet our equity otf and quite possibly ott since we still have fold equity a decent amount of the time (probably only calling with AA I suspect.... )

Also what is lofod?

Little one for one drop

Seems kinda pointless to debate/put so much emphasis on our preflop reads...this is a very narrow-range spot pre for any vill who has a clue. There's a lot of information right in front of you
(actions on flop+turn should carry way more weight than any preflop read.) Makes close to zero sense to not bet any made hand in pos ott. TT and overpairs need to get value and they also need some protection.

The wider ur range is pre, the more protection he needs (since ur 3bet bluffs should mostly be sooted and should check the fl op.) Anything is possible obv...but if he shows up with TT-AA here he's misplayed the hand really badly.

To not bet the flop seems totally bonkers I mean I guess fearing a check raise and the pot getting out of control was the thought behind it, overall the hand played fine after the check on the turn I would have gone for a bet.

I disagree. I think our strat for this hand changes a ton based on what we think villains range here is.

Yes, the decision to bet on river is trivial after villain checks back both streets, but the decisions on flop and turn are heavily debatable based on what we think villains range is imo

We’re OOP here. In either case. The reason we check is because our range does really poorly on this flop.

I think I like a turn bet, a lot of the cold calling range here is gonna be pairs and suited broadways. I'd expect most pairs to bet flop for value/protection so when he x it back it feels like we have the best hand the majority of the time.

I think not C-betting flop is a big mistake, you have a ton of equity. You are also favorite to win hand if opponent has a 88-JJ over pair. Since this is a huge pot preflop, it's important to maximize fold equity and try and take it down immediately.

I think best line is to Cbet flop 5.5k and plan to get it all in if he raises us. If he flats, plan to shove on all turn cards.

The only reason I can think of not to bet the flop is the fear of getting all the money in. lets look at the math if he raises you all in on flop:

Assuming you Cbet 5.5k (out of your 29k remaing stack) into a pot of 9k and he raises you all in.

you are getting 1.9:1 pot odds (23.5k to win 43.5k), ~35%

you can run a program of your equity vs his range but I think the most probable candidate for villain in this line is over pairs, 88-JJ (lets say weaker flush draws combos cancel out trip combos and eliminate two pair hands 3b preflop cold calling range).

If he has an overpair, we have 15 Outs, ~55-60% equity.

Having a 20-25% edge (especially vs a pro?) is too good of an opportunity to pass up on.

On this runout, doesn't V bet his 88-JJ/QQ somewhere? His turn check should actually shrink his holdings. I can see betting turn sometimes, but checking also has merit given our exact hand here.

did you intend to b/f river? If so, how strongly did you consider check/calling? I struggle with this decision on polarizing rivers.