So it’s level 4 of a 1100 person MTT.
Early in day 1.
Average chip stack is about 22,000. Everyone at my table has 10K-20K tho. Except me. And the BB.
Hero stack is 70K
Bb stack is 100K
300/500(500 Bb ante)
Hero CO AKss opens to 1.5k. Bb 3bets to 4.5k Hero calls.
(9.8) Flop AJ5hhc
4k call.
(17.8) Turn Qc
X x
(17.8) Riv 6c
X x
You need to get at least two bets in here. I like a 40-50% turn bet on a double fd board and then re-eval otr, possibly can go for another small vbet on a total blank.
XB turn and bet riv 60% is ok too.
So it’s level 4 of a 1100 person MTT.
Early in day 1.
Average chip stack is about 22,000. Everyone at my table has 10K-20K tho. Except me. And the BB.
Hero stack is 70K
Bb stack is 100K
300/500(500 Bb ante)
Hero CO AKss opens to 1.5k. Bb 3bets to 4.5k Hero calls.
(9.8) Flop AJ5hhc
4k call.
(17.8) Turn Qc
X x
(17.8) Riv 6c
X x
Hmm I think betting river here atleast no? Even the turn can be bet. Not sure why you would check turn and river here? I’m fine with checking back turn to pot control however river is a slam dunk bet when villian checks. I think I’m betting like 6-10k on river and folding to a big raise. Agree with Ralphwaldo also about bet turn and re-eval river
Think we can 4-bet pre to 11-12K-ish a good percentage of the time, but flatting is fine too.
On flop did you bet or call BB c-bet? If we call BB c-bet and turn is checked to us I think betting turn is probably mandatory as villain should continue with all of their 2p+ hands. Maybe we're slightly more cautious if villain checks flop because KT/QJ/QQ/AQ are all plausible hands for villain to 3-bet BB at some frequency, check flop with and then look to c/r turn. (maybe AQ mostly bets flop though)
Do think if we're checking turn and it checks to us on the river we have to bet.
Either way, this is a clear two-street hand at a minimum.
So in a cash game I agree this is 100% a 2 street hand. My default there would be to bet the turn and check back the riv.
Here however there were 2 factors that lead me to play so cautiously. First off we’re in a very good position at the table. Everyone has an M of 10-20 except me and the other deep stack. We have M > 60. As long as we don’t lose our stack here, we will be able to continue to abuse the short stacks.
If I get check/raises big or all in at any point here I will have to make an extremely difficult decision.
2nd. On checking the turn specifically it caps my range as I would expect my opponent to expect me to always bet 2 pair+ ott for value/protection.
I think it is possible that this would induce a big bluff on the river from him. (Although I’m not sure if he even has any 0 SDV hands in his range at that point hmmm)
One thing you may not be considering is that your 70k stack isn't really worth a ton yet, since it's so early in the tourney. If you set yourself up for a cooler, whatever, you still have to play poker against the big stacks at this stage of the MTT. So yeah what others said, I would go for one more bet.
You should be betting the river. Yes, you will get checkraised/bluffed off it some very small % of the time. Do you think this player is the player that is going to make a play like this when they are in a very good spot in the tournament?
I think given that a heart draw missed, you should bet something like 12K and maybe you get called with Ax. Or even something like KQ. By not betting in this spot you are giving up too much equity.