1100 HPT GG COLO

Blinds are 800/1600/1600bba

Hero has AdKs 96,400
Villian1 50s white male rec 92,000 ... polo and golf cap
Villain2 70s male rec 120,000 ...
Hero 2p2 dude been playing very aggressive and built my stack from 50ish to where it's at without showdown since dinner break.... by isoing this super soft table and making moves post flop.

I come from the mindset that I never do something without a plan for reaction. Example... bet fold. Check call... etc. That said ... this was a tough spot for me given action and plan...

Villian1 UTG limps, villain2 UTG2 limps... folds to me in CO ... I make it 6300 ... they both call.

Flop 21,300 three ways:
AhTd5d
Check. Check. I bet 12300 ... They both call.

Turn 45,900
8d
Check. Check. Hero?

What's your plan for here on out and why?

Check and play poker on the river
Getting jammed on here with so much equity sucks

More likely to get black AK here


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The 70 yo weak tight player is not overcalling that flop without two pair or better. They both expected you to continue betting on turn... Check and hit that last diamond but i would not call the river leadout bet unless you improve.

I think I would check turn and hope to improve on river. Seems like your hand isn’t good based on description of Villians as older men. I don’t think someone is peeling jqo etc here on flop. Check turn and play poker on river like other poster said.

Not sure what you are called by that is worse on turn. I think we can go for value on river when check to though.

As for pre, I feel you can go bigger on sizing. Maybe like 7k. I would rather player AK heads up and I see nothing wrong with bloating the pot pre here against weak players that open limp. 6300 seems fine though.

Turn b/f for 33% pot is the best exploitative play.

While it's true V has mostly flushes and 2pr if and when he x/j turn, he also should be x/j KdQx-, KxQd-, KdJx-,... type hands as a bluff to balance his x/j range. V should also be folding some AX to a barrel,

I think in practice V's don't x/r enough draws (they don't have enough bluffs in their x/j range) and they call too often with AX, therefore their x/c ranges tend to be exploitably weak and their x/j ranges tend to be exploitably strong.


Therefore, we wanna barrel turn with this combo and fold to a raise because doing so allows us to extract additional EV compared to equilibrium (we're getting paid off by more AX than we ought to and we don't have to deal with x/j as often as we ought to). We fold because even with our redraw, if V severely underraises as a bluff we still can't profitably call it off. But extracting immediately from worse AX and also from KdQx, KxQd, KdJx, KxJd, QdJx, QxJd more than makes up for having to exploitatively fold turn to a x/j

Pre too small, flop too big, barreling this hand and shoving river.

I like betting again here. We likely have the most equity now and still can have the best hand as well! Limp-calling ranges tend to be more AK - AT live. While Eggs gave a more detailed answer, simply put OMC will keep calling hands we beat and will only raise with ??? I doubt either will raise with a K hi flush since they could be beat by the A hi flush.

Keep extracting.

Now, this gets really interesting when you bet, V1 calls, and V2 jams . . .

First, the pot size you have on the turn is off. If you bet 12,300 and they both call. Then the pot should be 22,900 preflop and 36,900 on the turn = 59,800

3 handed turn is a check with your stack size and the current pot size. I mean, I am sure that we can construct a range where we are ahead. But realistically, how often are you going to be looking at AJ/AQ for both players? It's possible, but it's more likely that one of them has a flush or set.

I think the problem is that what happens if you bet 15K - 20K and get a call then the other player shoves? Now the pot is so massive that you are getting the odds to call.

I think the best play here is to check the turn and hope to hit a diamond, call a smallish bet/decide or make a small value bet of 15K.

The problem with this is that I think you will be pot committed.

If you bet the turn for 20K (33%), and villain shoves over you (say villain 2). Then the pot is now will now be 159,600 and you will have 57,800 left. So almost pot committed.

But then there is the times where villain has AxQd or A5 or something that is not a flush or set and you should have called because you have the odds. Basically, it's not a clear fold if they shove.

We have ~24% equity against V's likely shoving range (70% flushes against which we have 7 outs, 20% 2 pair against which we have ~12 outs, 10% of the time we're crushing him because he has KdQx or something like that (and that's a generous amount of bluffs here)).


So we're definitely not pot committed, it's somewhat close for 33% (getting 2.8:1 needing closer to 3.1:1), and it's certainly not close to being pot committed if we bet even smaller (like 25%).

If you change the assumption to having him shove more bluffs or more thinner value like 2pr, then it becomes less of a clear b/f.

I like eggs analysis but if a diamond comes I think a V will pay you off on the river bc

1. The won't believe you checked turn w the Ad bc they think you are overly aggressive.
2. They expected to c/r you on the turn and may lead out river regardless bc they missed their opportunity to raise you.
3. It looks like a bluff bc you are last to act on the button.

Phat is correct that if v2 jams you probably have to call it off on the turn if you bet 18-20ish. They gave you a free card, i would still take it...

Thanks Phats yes you had the correct pot size of 59,8 ... Sorry for messing that up.

So now if we bet ... 23500... villain1 instantly shoves... villain2 releases reluctantly... Hero?


So ott if we check behind and the river bricks with 3s... villain1 open shoves... villain2 slowly reluctantly releases... Hero?

So I think I would most likely fold. Unless you have some read that says this guy is going to turn a hand like AJ/AQ/Ax into a bluff or is a maniac and has KQ. Which I think is unlikely and especially into 2 opponents. Given what we know, and the way you have described the players, I don't see what the player can have in this spot that you can beat. For me this is a sigh fold.

Since V1 open limped and has been passive until now, I fold without tanking too long. As Eggs said, OMC don't bluff enough.

This

Interesting post. Cheers

What are your suggested sizing? Thanks.

The at5 rainbow plays mostly 1/3 as highest ev sizing

No it isn't. Super easy hand to play where we have the best of it every street. Hint don't stop betting when you're near the top of your range and have the best draws/blockers/hand

9k pre

As played 8k flop

You made it 6300 to go into a pot of 7200 before your action, giving V1 2.8 odds on a wide range, including hands likely to limp with 55+, A10o, A10s, AJ, QJ, maybe Q10 if feeling really friskey and V2 3.8 to call. They both check and you make it 12300, again giving them 2.8 and 3.8 to call respectively and they did. Two overs and D draw to the 66-99 callers would probably make them fold, so both of them check calling is hinting at a set not wanting to get it all in yet, D/straight draw w maybe KQd. All this, I would check the turn and see if you can get the nuts on the river or two pair and see how they come out being out of position.

No

I like to xb here and play a river IP.

While we have nf blocker there is a still a chance either V can have a flush. Betting and getting raised here is a disaster when we can play some pot control ott and call any river lead.

If its checked to us otr then we can go for value, by checking turn our range looks weaker and we might get value from a wider range because of this

Pretty big assumptions there,how do you know he is weak tight?There are a ton of worst hands he can call flop with

2nd Limper, calls raise pre flop
2nd to act checks, over calls bet on flop
2nd to act checks turn
Board is a,10, 8, 5 with three diamonds and he has both players covered.
Sigh folds turn or river to v1 shove (I don't think outcome has actually been revealed)

Seems pretty weak tight to me, what hands do you put him on here that makes sense?