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04-16-2018 , 05:39 AM
#1
handofdoom
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stranger
Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 2
Hello!

I was wondering if it is ever correct play to call here? And why is that?


I had a bit steamy Sunday session and this was last tourney of the night.

$109 6 max turbo, 32/230ish left(30itm) and it has been hand for a hand for a while now.

Blinds 12.5k/25k and two small stacks had 125k

I have 350k in BB and SB 800k stack shove again. Very loose player. I have A7o. I know that yeah I prolly should wait until those 2 shorts bust. And its better to shove than call. But I know this guy will move any 2 here. After all I am not after min cash and Need to FT to make some profit.



Thanks
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04-16-2018 , 10:51 AM
#2
insomniuh's Avatar
insomniuh
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Call.
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04-16-2018 , 11:01 AM
#3
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poloplaya1414
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972
I call here too, but idk it might be a mistake.
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04-16-2018 , 11:19 AM
#4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
I call here too, but idk it might be a mistake.
6-Max Turbo structure makes this a call. 9 Handed Turbo I can find a fold with 2 from bubble. 9 Handed Regular structure you can lay this down comfortably and wait for a better spot.
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04-16-2018 , 11:27 AM
#5
3for3poker
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,505
If he really is any two, this is a snap call (58.3% equity). If Villain has been abusing the bubble, then it is fine.

Why do you feel you need to make FT to make profit? Is it because the rest of your day was minus, this is a leak. Each tournament should be played in isolation. If you feel 'steamy' because of the rest of your day, don't play. Don't even think about playing.
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04-16-2018 , 01:49 PM
#6
handofdoom
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stranger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
If he really is any two, this is a snap call (58.3% equity). If Villain has been abusing the bubble, then it is fine.

Why do you feel you need to make FT to make profit? Is it because the rest of your day was minus, this is a leak. Each tournament should be played in isolation. If you feel 'steamy' because of the rest of your day, don't play. Don't even think about playing.
Yeah I know it's a leak but I don't play that often. And when I play I try to rather hit bigger score than take sure min cash. If you get my point. Yes got steamy because bad beats in earlier tournaments. Was only supposed to play Sunday major+1-2 side events but ended up playing too many turbos after all the bad beats. Maybe this is the reason I don't play too often

Thanks for the answers everyone! Helped a lot!
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04-16-2018 , 02:49 PM
#7
3for3poker
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old hand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handofdoom
Yeah I know it's a leak but I don't play that often. And when I play I try to rather hit bigger score than take sure min cash. If you get my point. Yes got steamy because bad beats in earlier tournaments. Was only supposed to play Sunday major+1-2 side events but ended up playing too many turbos after all the bad beats. Maybe this is the reason I don't play too often

Thanks for the answers everyone! Helped a lot!
Playing for big scores is correct. If you know about your leaks, that is fine. It is still not a 'great' spot, but the kind you need to take (and win) to go far.
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04-18-2018 , 03:32 AM
#8
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MTTLivePro
Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941
58-42 is an icm call?
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04-18-2018 , 04:22 AM
#9
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grinder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
58-42 is an icm call?
I'm not sure but I lean towards no. I think it might also have to do with how stacks are distributed, i.e. if calling here and doubling us up gets us a top 3 stack calling is much more attractive than if we just move up into a spot that also mincashes.
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04-18-2018 , 05:24 PM
#10
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poloplaya1414
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old hand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts
I'm not sure but I lean towards no. I think it might also have to do with how stacks are distributed, i.e. if calling here and doubling us up gets us a top 3 stack calling is much more attractive than if we just move up into a spot that also mincashes.
I'm pretty sure it is. It depends on the avg stack for the tournament and the payout structure, but I'm pretty sure ICM pressure at the stone bubble isn't >1.2
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04-18-2018 , 05:55 PM
#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
I'm pretty sure it is. It depends on the avg stack for the tournament and the payout structure, but I'm pretty sure ICM pressure at the stone bubble isn't >1.2
I think its much more drastic than 1.2.

Basically is (.58)(EV of our stack when we double) > (EV of our current stack)? I'm not that sure, and as you said it depends on payout structures and all that - plus the 58% equity only comes from when sb is shoving ATC, and I'm not sure a random villain is.
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04-18-2018 , 06:14 PM
#12
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poloplaya1414
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old hand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts
I think its much more drastic than 1.2.

Basically is (.58)(EV of our stack when we double) > (EV of our current stack)? I'm not that sure, and as you said it depends on payout structures and all that - plus the 58% equity only comes from when sb is shoving ATC, and I'm not sure a random villain is.
I did some research, and found this:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ctors-1504943/

The 180-man Sng probably has a somewhat similar payout to this.

I found another source saying that bubble factor around the stone mtt bubble was usually like 1.4.

So I guess we need like 65% equity to call here. So basically AJ+/77+ if villain truly has any 2 cards.
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04-18-2018 , 06:34 PM
#13
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JSkelts
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grinder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
I did some research, and found this:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ctors-1504943/

The 180-man Sng probably has a somewhat similar payout to this.

I found another source saying that bubble factor around the stone mtt bubble was usually like 1.4.

So I guess we need like 65% equity to call here. So basically AJ+/77+ if villain truly has any 2 cards.

Wow - its crazy that the range is that tight, I probably would have thought something like A9s+ max.

Also on the thread you linked, I don't quite follow here "The book suggests dividing our (chip) pot odds by the bubble factor to get the ($) tournament odds e.g. to make a call." If in our example there are no antes then we're getting 325/700 = 46.4%. So I divide that by 1.4 and thats the equity we need? Or is it 1 - (46.4/1.4)?
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04-18-2018 , 11:26 PM
#14
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poloplaya1414
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old hand
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To make a call, we need 1.4 * the break even chip equity, I believe
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04-19-2018 , 08:42 AM
#15
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nomalice
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,653
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
If he really is any two, this is a snap call (58.3% equity). If Villain has been abusing the bubble, then it is fine.

Why do you feel you need to make FT to make profit? Is it because the rest of your day was minus, this is a leak. Each tournament should be played in isolation. If you feel 'steamy' because of the rest of your day, don't play. Don't even think about playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver
58-42 is an icm call?
We have more edge here since villain pbb isn't shoving top of the range, he's most likely raise calling AJs 99 or smt like that. We're more likely having around 62% but again it's pretty close
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