Quote:
Originally Posted by Shortfuse
Didn't read much past the fact that you have 99 and 10bb. Don't be results oriented it's simply a shove and nothing else.
I had a little more than 10. I was doing fine chipping up stealing in spots went from 10bb to the 12.5BB when i was dealt 99. I can accept this is still a shove. But I should’ve prefaced I’ve final tabled 200ish field $1050 buyins and $500+ buyins when pokerstars was common in the states in 2000-2006. I’ve read Harrington, super system, etc. most every book you can think of on poker and poker statistics. When I wasn’t having wild fluctuations on my bankroll with the $500+ buyins, I was playing $2-$11 mega fields just to keep from losing too fast on a bad run because even with bankroll management in mind the flutcutations were significant. I’ve placed first often in these snall stakes in fields as large as 2000+. So I’m not talking basic shove the mid to high pair on the 10bb a la Harrington. What I mean was my gut sense told me if I raised 2-2.2x BB with my 12-15ish stake I was wondering what people with a lot of experience in the 109 buyin felt would be a repop range, flat call range and what frequency and if there were an opportunity to squeeze some minute amount of additional ev there with a 2x-2.2x B.B. bet rather than a shove. My gut sense tells me yes. Regardless of not being results oriented—I think the contemporaneous analysis suggests the possibility of higher ev not shove-botting here without analysis. You missed the reason why that is sound to not think purely from results but on contemporaneous probabilities— because you have perfect information you didn’t have beforehand and should base analysis on information known at the time, otherwise suffer from what financial analysts call hindsight bias. I get that— my day job is equity analysis for a billion+ fund. I have 2 professional financial charters of the highest reputation which I cannot mention here and knowledge of grad-level stats and skills training apply them (anova, regression, inference, experimental design, behavioral finance , bayes theorem and applications including to poker, sas, r, etc.)
What I was hoping for in coming here was getting the razor thin extra ev from the people experienced in these buyins who have observed the success rates of the smaller min to 2.2xbb bets (when they might be appropriate) when the blinds are between 10x to 20x and separately at these parameters when you’re dealt a borderline hand mid position and you’re not trying to tj cloutier into the bubble. My feeling was the play at these stakes at least at bol was so tight I wouldn’t get repopped most the time without 88-AA to AK by similar sized or larger stacks maybe which tells me There being more situations where you’re dominated 80/20 than the 20/80, and a coin flip vs Ak that there’s some ev there in folding against a nitty table calculating combinations and expected value. That’s all— I noticed from observation at the 12-25ish B.B. there are people seemingly doing slightly better with the min bet or 2.2bb bet at these blinds at these stakes which was the info I was fishing for— the diff between great and excellent. Again if someone with a deep experiential knowledge of this particular stake tells me shoving is proper here I’ll be convinced.
Last edited by koalachampion; 11-29-2017 at 03:48 AM.