Hi ... it's Party Poker $109 Sunday Main Event, 142 players left out of 982, places 121-136 get paid $230 prize money, i.e. more than double the buy-in

Stakes don't really matter for the evaluation of the spot ... I have 9BB left. It may be obvious to observant players that I'm trying to stall, even though I don't use the time bank, I time down 20 seconds each hand, just before time bank would activate. Then again, even some very big stacks take surprisingly long in their decisions. My stalling may or may not widen villains ranges here, pure speculation.

Chip-wise, I am perhaps in 130ish position out of the 142 remaining players. It folds to Villain in the SB who has 29BB (27/24/13 over 82 hands), he shoves.

As mentioned, I have 9 big blinds; I am in BB with 77.

Call or fold?

Depends how important cashing is for you. He’s expecting you to fold in the bubble so his range is very wide, but even if he turns over J8os, it’s still pretty much a coin-flip. I would just fold, cash and then I have my buy-in for another two tournaments.

Well, that's what I meant with "Stakes don't really matter for the evaluation of the spot" ... please don't evaluate it from that perspective, rather from a rational, "EV" point of view ...

icmizer.com

i mean what is your question, obv its a +EV call

I don't think ICMizer gives an answer here. Without this specific bubble situation, 77 with 9bb BB vs SB shove is a clear call all day, unless I artificially decide to assume a ridiculously tight SB shoving range, but if anything, it's probably rather more wide than "optimal" (i.e. given only stack sizes).

The question comes from the specific bubble situation, plus the fact that the lowest payout was more than double the buy-in (although 6 players before the bubble, with only perhaps a dozen or so players in the whole tournament with less chips than me, is still different than at the exact bubble, in which case I believe folding almost certainly must be the right play).

You ninja-edited

It's not about being a +EV call, but about the best choice in this specific (almost) bubble spot ...

Snap call. Play to win. You don’t make money in mtts hoping to min cashing. Sure you flip a lot and may be crushed, but 22-66 isn’t shoving here to realize equity? Per Jennifear above charts with 10% antes, sb can shove 75% and be ev+ play.

Sb should be shoving super wide here. Call and hope you hold. Idk about you but I like winning mtts. A min cash is not where a profit is made.

Would you still be of the same opinion at the exact bubble, i.e. pretty much a guaranteed min-cash when folding, but when calling, often flipping or ahead maybe 70% (sometimes behind, too, obv)? Because the call (which will lose a significant percentage) would need to make enough chips to give a "good enough" chance to jump up the payladder sufficiently above min-cash in order to take the risk of a zero-payout ...

...so, agian, if this was at the exact bubble: still snap call or fold?

It’s a call yeah but 55 is a fold

I don’t really agree with the mentality “u play to win” ....you play to get the best possible return on your investment and keep your sanity , particularly if grinding a lot

I always regret calling and losing in this situation so I’ve learnt to fold. My calling range here is probably AA or KK. It means I’m exploitable with a short stack on the bubble, but since I’m not made of money I’d rather cash.

Jeepers folding anything between 99-QQ is just throwing away money

Sure, understood. Nevertheless, the question is not meant as a poll on personal preferences, rather: which decision would - as objectivity as possible - be „best“.

Formulated in a different way, the question is: when folding, I have a very high chance to receive $230 (though not „certain“ at all yet, being one of the shortest stacks and with 6 players more having to bust) . Calling will have my result at 0 some percentage of the time. Does the chance to double up give me on average more than those „almost sure“ $230 so that a call is better than a foldin this specific situation? I think the question is not trivial.

Further away from the bubble, say 12 players instead of 6, it’s a trivially easy call. At the exact bubble, with one player more to bust, I would be pretty sure it‘s a fold, as then the min-cash would be virtually guaranteed and even a doubled-up stack of 18bb would have to give certainty then to finish (on average) so much better than min-cash to make a 0-payout worth the risk. Not trivial imho

If it’s the stone bubble and you are say 95%< to cash, yea prolly a fold. I feel people need to think rationally on how money is made playing mtts. I feel taking small edges are big late in mtts. I would much rather have a lower itm% and win mtts more often vs the other case as money is generally top heavy in mtts and min cashes aren’t going to make a big bump on the long run roi.

For example I watched a video on YouTube (don’t have link) going over math in mtts. Shaun Deeb (a sick online mtt reg back in the day) had a lower itm % but has a great top 3%. You have to realize high finishes are where the money is. A spot like this, I think you are likely to be pretty ahead of shove range of sb. You can run it in a calculator but I’m loving this call against someone that should
Be shoving very wide. If I’m sb here, I’m shoving kx, qx, j4+ here.

Also you win this hand, going into the cash portion of mtt, you now have fold equity and can jam over raises with the ability to make your opponent fold pre without showdown. No good player is going to open raise and fold to a <9bb stack due to math.

This mentality is super flawed. If you are putting in solid volume along with solid play, the wins will come. 77 is ahead of a random 60-75% shoving range in this spot from the small blind. I would love to run it against a hand like k6 or qx in this spot.

Clearly ahead, nobody ever doubted that. For instance, about 60% vs. a 65% range. Which means, 40% of the time I lose.

Again, the more extreme example: with only one player left - the 60% chance of a double-up then needs to make enough expected profit to outweigh the 40% risk of losing a pretty much guaranteed $230. You are still ahead, just as much as in the "original" example - but at the very bubble, would you still call with 77?

If you had to wait for 1-2 players to be knocked out and say 2-3 players had 2-3 bbs I would prolly fold. With 6 left , so much can happen. 130/142 isn’t a lock for a cash. Are you folding ak to a standard open at a full ring table with a 9bb stack? I would just plop it in and hope you hold.

For example, in a live tourny I had maybe 30bbs with 19 left and 18 paid. Min cash was 200-250 maybe and top spot paid 3-4K maybe (not sure exact figure) but I was part of 2 players that said no to paying the bubble. I lost a big hand to
Be knocked down to 6 bbs after calling an all in river shove with top pair on a spot a solid reg is super polarized and prolly bluffing/ has nutty hand on river. I got knocked out 19th and got ridiculed for not agreeing to pay bubble. I lold at other players and told them I play to win and 200 dollars isn’t going to get me
Satisfication. I feel if you wanna be a boss mtter, you have to play to win and not worry about the min cash. Sure it’s great to get some $ but we play for final tables and the top heavy payouts. If someone is playing to min cash, there is no way they are playing optimally (unless a player is gtn to be knocked out in next 2-3 hands with bubble burst, play your spots and play to win all the chips).

I prolly feel this way bc I was backed when I played online and put in some solid volume so min cashes didn’t really mean anything to me. Mtt $ is made in the long run and a few big scores will make your roi and profit. I’m just a fan of not being iffy on bubble spots if you aren’t actually right at the bubble.

The decision to shove in this spot (with a pretty tight range) is an easier one because of fold equity. Just as it is an easier decision if in the given spot, I had been the SB and would shove with 9bb into the big blind who can still fold then, and if called, I‘ll be all right often enough ...

It‘s not about the 200$ ... the „EV“ answer should be the same if it was a 1$ buy-in or if some generous friend decided to stake me for a $100k high roller. Of course, in reality this will have an influence, but I‘m only interested in the „rationally best decision“ here. On the exact bubble, I‘m pretty sure it’s a „rational“ fold; in the spot at hand, I feel like it „should“ be a call, which is what I did (same reasoning: „don’t wanna play for min-cash“), but I am not entirely sure if those perhaps 40% equity make it the „correct“ move.

Surviving is more important than doubling up here for sure. But this isn't a 50/50 spot.

~ 60% chance of doubling up at this point is going to be better than folding, and maybe then having to pass up more spots to get to a mincash.

If this was direct bubble then I'd be more inclined to fold.

Really confused as to why there are so many words in this thread. This post is all that's needed. Guessing OP called and got sucked out on and is trying to rationalize a way out.

Correct.

Wrong. I want to learn. See what others think of this spot and hopefully make the best decision in a similar spot in the future. Which, again, does not seem trivial, as otherwise there wouldn't be such a mix of opinions.

Also, again: it's not about the stakes or "how much the money is worth to me".
That post referred to ICMizer. I used to have a subscrption and correct me if I'm wrong: I don't remember ever being able to use it on the bubble of a tournament, with still 142 players remaining.

What then, do you think, would be the correct choice if it were the exact bubble? Still "easy +EV call"?

It obv is about the stakes or the cash or whatever crap you're spewing. Everyone gave you the answer it's a very +ev call.

answered in true 2+2 fashion ...

OP - in all seriousness, would you have posted this hand had you called and won? The trolling you received is actually pretty mild given the trivial answer to your posted question.

I have no doubt to fold here even +EV to call. Even a T9o shove by SB here, it is still a coin flip. Let's say you double up by calling here, 18bbs are no difference getting ITM with 9bbs but if sucked out on coin flip now, you got nothing. But a fold here guarantee a buyin. So which is more +EV to you?

no