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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-15-2018, 02:25 PM   #1
loololollo
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$100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

blinds, 1.2k/2.4k, hero (35bbs) min clicks in LJ,
hj flats (40bbs),
button flats (65bbs),
bb flats (25bbs),
hero has AdAc,
flop KcJd10d,
bb checks, hero checks, HJ+1 checks, Btn bets 7k into 23k(ish),
bb flats w/30k behind,
hero raises to 30k w/25k left,
hj+1 folds,
btn who covers flats,
bb folds,
Kd on the turn,
hero ships...


thoughts??

SPOILER FOR RESULT
Spoiler:
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Old 05-15-2018, 03:48 PM   #2
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

I think if I'm going to check-raise here, I'll just overshove the pot. If it folds out worse, so be it, but it also can get a call from sticky Kx who think you're shoving AdXd on a semi-bluff. I don't think check-raising without committing your stack really serves much of a purpose. I would rather just bet the flop than to check-raise to your sizing.

I don't think the Kd is the right card to be shoving the turn with. You hold the Ad and unless you think the BTN floated a random Q, then most of his flatting range is going to include a K here, and you have 0 fold equity vs. a K with your remaining stack size.
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Old 05-16-2018, 09:36 AM   #3
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

My original intention was to c/c flop but once btn bet it so small and bb called I felt that I had to raise, I think you're right in shoving would have been a better option.

What's your thoughts on the turn? Can we really check/fold w/25k left and the pot already being around 85k?

When I c/r'd flop I was going to shove any turn, unforunately it's a bad turn, but it does counterfeit J10 maybe.... we also pick up a lot of outs.
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Old 05-16-2018, 09:49 AM   #4
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

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Originally Posted by loololollo View Post
What's your thoughts on the turn? Can we really check/fold w/25k left and the pot already being around 85k?
I don't think a shove by V on that turn card is ever a bluff (especially considering you hold the Ad). Like literally 0% bluffs. If you include Kx including full houses, made flushes and made straights. You need 18% equity to call and I'm not even sure you have that much.

You have 25% vs. KQ if he showed it to you face-up but when you weigh in full houses, flushes and straights I don't think you have the equity anymore.

In a cash game it's probably a marginal call, but in a tournament I think this is an easy fold. 10BBs remaining isn't optimal but I've seen people run it up with a lot worse.
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Old 05-16-2018, 11:24 AM   #5
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

I would never c/r to half the chips I have remaining unless its the river and I am trying to get a call. Any bet that is over 33% of effective stack is essentially a pot committing bet. Better to maximize your fold equity and c/r shove.

If you are behind it makes little difference because you are committed to shoving the turn anyway.

OTF why not bet 12,000 to 15,000 and shove any safe turn with a pot sized bet? I think this would be a hard hand to get away from on the turn when the 2nd K comes. But at least you give yourself a chance...
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Old 05-16-2018, 12:07 PM   #6
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

Maybe I am resulting, but I don't like my chances when 4 people see such a wet flop, and I have one pair. True, there won't be many sets, but plenty of 2 pair, and pair plus draws that, while we are ahead of, aren't doing great against.
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Old 05-16-2018, 12:37 PM   #7
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

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I would never c/r to half the chips I have remaining unless its the river and I am trying to get a call. Any bet that is over 33% of effective stack is essentially a pot committing bet. Better to maximize your fold equity and c/r shove.

If you are behind it makes little difference because you are committed to shoving the turn anyway.

OTF why not bet 12,000 to 15,000 and shove any safe turn with a pot sized bet? I think this would be a hard hand to get away from on the turn when the 2nd K comes. But at least you give yourself a chance...
Yeah, I think your right, in c/shoving flop would have been better

OTF my thought process was that it's a crappy board so I'll try excersice some pot control because there's not too many bad turns for me. After the action I thought it'd make more sense to raise, in retrospect I think shoving would have been better.

Still open to the idea of betting flop big / shoving most turns but I'm unsure if this is the most +ev play 4 handed
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Old 05-16-2018, 12:38 PM   #8
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

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Originally Posted by 3for3poker View Post
Maybe I am resulting, but I don't like my chances when 4 people see such a wet flop, and I have one pair. True, there won't be many sets, but plenty of 2 pair, and pair plus draws that, while we are ahead of, aren't doing great against.
What's your line?
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Old 05-17-2018, 01:31 PM   #9
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

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Originally Posted by loololollo View Post
What's your line?
I don't like the min-raise pre because that let too many people come along for the ride.

As played, I could actually have gotten away from the aces there, especially when the second K hit the board on the turn. Maybe my results-oriented view is too nittish, but I've been in that position with enough times to be able to lay it down. Yes, you picked up the draw to a royal as well as the nut-flush or straight, but at that moment, with that many people having seen the flop, there is nothing you were realistically ahead of with just one pair.
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Old 05-17-2018, 02:11 PM   #10
3for3poker
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

I think I'd just check call flop. Easier to see from here, but this is just a horrible flop for us. Even the Ad is a mixed blessing, it means we are blocking nut flush draws, so more likely we are behind.
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Old 05-17-2018, 05:32 PM   #11
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

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Originally Posted by 3for3poker View Post
I think I'd just check call flop. Easier to see from here, but this is just a horrible flop for us. Even the Ad is a mixed blessing, it means we are blocking nut flush draws, so more likely we are behind.
Yeah ok thanks, and then plan on blank turns? Are we just going with it but not loving it?
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Old 05-17-2018, 06:03 PM   #12
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

I think we should just cbet. I don't think our hand is strong enough to go for a x/raise, and if we get raised, we can safely fold.
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Old 05-18-2018, 09:40 AM   #13
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

I think people are being too results oriented. Its a $100 live tournament. People do Dumb stuff.

The turn card is kind of sucky because any flush is now beating you and any King is beating you. But you are forgetting that the villain can have other hands and now you have a redraw.

I don't really think you can fold this hand given the pot size. I could see it playing out differently if you bet 3 or 4 BBs on the flop and check the turn and see what happens.
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Old 05-18-2018, 10:09 AM   #14
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

Thanks for the opinions / advice everyone, pretty much the answers I was hoping for, so that's a good sign
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Old 05-18-2018, 10:39 AM   #15
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

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Originally Posted by PhatPots View Post
I think people are being too results oriented. Its a $100 live tournament. People do Dumb stuff.

The turn card is kind of sucky because any flush is now beating you and any King is beating you. But you are forgetting that the villain can have other hands and now you have a redraw.

I don't really think you can fold this hand given the pot size. I could see it playing out differently if you bet 3 or 4 BBs on the flop and check the turn and see what happens.
This.
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Old 05-19-2018, 03:54 AM   #16
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

Moar pre. Flat flop. Smallish pot for a small hand You have an ass load of better hands to raise than AA. KK JJ TT AQ KJ JT Q9ss.
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Old 05-19-2018, 04:54 PM   #17
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

Don't think pre is that big of a deal, although I just hate min raises in general.

Flop is awkward. I think in a $100 live tournament my inclination would be to get stacks in at this SPR, even on this board. Really the only question is how best to get our stack in, and I lean towards c-betting ~15K with the intention of calling off the vast majority of the time. At these stakes players will do all sorts of weird things with weak flush draws and pair+draw hands.

I think when we check-raise it's less likely our opponents will make a mistake.
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Old 05-22-2018, 06:49 AM   #18
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

c/r def the worst option. Just cbet.
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Old 05-24-2018, 12:41 AM   #19
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

cbet all day what is going on here
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Old 05-24-2018, 02:55 PM   #20
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

Quote:
thoughts??
On the turn there's straights, flush, trips, boats possible with holdings that the bb could easily have and have played that way. When all is said and done you have 'only' 2 pair on a super-scary board. OK, you pretty much pot comitted yourself on the flop...then again: why not shove instead of reraise the flop? there's really not many good cards for you on the turn/river to play this while being fairly confident that your AA are still good.

Any A, K, Q, J, T, 9 or any diamond either kills your action or has you in dire straits of having the second best hand. There's also no card that improves your hand (an ace on the turn or river would be downright horrible in this spot)

Shove flop and you might get called by an OESD or a flush draw and go in ahead (even if you're up against two pair you stand a decent chance of making a better 2 pair)
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Old 05-25-2018, 05:06 AM   #21
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Re: $100 Live, mid/late stages, horrible spot for A's

limp/3! pre

oh wait, i'm playing cash 5-5-10nl
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