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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 09-14-2018, 06:49 PM   #1
stas_kl11
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100 euro night on stars huge pot

Hi! Have very strange hand to discuss. What will you do? Opponent - very good regular, mid stage of the tournament Night on Stars (pokesrstars.es).
what should i do on the turn? Why is he showing so much?

PokerStars - 400/800 Ante 100 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 17.8 BB (VPIP: 21.71, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 130)
SB: 56.79 BB (VPIP: 24.24, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BB: 94.17 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 137)
UTG: 30.77 BB (VPIP: 25.19, PFR: 14.62, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 132)
UTG+1: 43.66 BB (VPIP: 27.62, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 7.84, Hands: 105)
MP: 31.73 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 52)
Hero (MP+1): 81.14 BB
CO: 11.54 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.11 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 8.5 BB, Hero calls 6.39 BB

Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 9 4 5
BB bets 12.4 BB, Hero calls 12.4 BB

Turn: (43.29 BB, 2 players) 8
BB bets 73.15 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:35 PM   #2
underdeveloped
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Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

This is a pretty annoying spot - head says call, heart says fold.

I think not enough people 3-bet bluff from bb and normally when u see this 3-bet bet rip line from villain he's just going to have aces and kings almost all of the time. However, BB can still bluff with this line or even have JJ for worse value (this kinda feels like a stretch tho).

Bottom line is I'm not really sure about this spot. I think in general the gto strat is too call but I think you can fold exploitatively fold the turn vs this line from villain.

Interested to see what better players than me have to say for sure tho.
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:52 PM   #3
stas_kl11
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Angry Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by underdeveloped View Post
This is a pretty annoying spot - head says call, heart says fold.

I think not enough people 3-bet bluff from bb and normally when u see this 3-bet bet rip line from villain he's just going to have aces and kings almost all of the time. However, BB can still bluff with this line or even have JJ for worse value (this kinda feels like a stretch tho).

Bottom line is I'm not really sure about this spot. I think in general the gto strat is too call but I think you can fold exploitatively fold the turn vs this line from villain.

Interested to see what better players than me have to say for sure tho.
He could have AK of diamonds but i don't know, probably should be easy fold... I had phat stack, no reason to make close call, also it was 30 people to the money. Satelited for this tourney so quite big money for me.
To be honest, first time i am seeing this line: 3/4 on flop and overbet shove on the turn, was very confused. I don't know if this line is profitable? Should be if good player uses this but man, i would fold everything except 2 pair, sets, and AA, KK and maybe QQ but it not sure. Looks like he owned me very much, i was just snap call without thinking, what a stupid play by me...
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Old 09-14-2018, 09:35 PM   #4
oldsilver
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Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

I'd have AA and KK in range for V, plus some of his light 3-bet range will connect strongly with that board (A5dd 67dd 78dd). In addition, V will have some frequency of TT JJ A9s AKdd and air.

I'd look to previous hands for some evidence this line is biased to A5dd type holdings, but fold in a vacuum. There just seems no way to discount AA-KK.
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Old 09-15-2018, 12:18 AM   #5
jl121
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Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

Your stats? Have you been nitting it up pre due to the stakes being out of your comfort zone?

You beat {TT, JJ}, you lose to {99, KK, AA}.

I'm assuming he's never seen you before--meaning he's putting you on a pretty strong range here when you open the pot in a position that isn't CO, BTN, or SB.

Don't think he has {Ad5d}, I believe that hand plays much better as a defend than it does as a light 3-bet vs your (assumed) tight open range.

In fact--and maybe I'm biased bc I know your hand--but it's pretty easy to put you on this exact hand, maybe you can be a little weaker like {JJ} or {TT} are in your range I guess but in any case your range is almost all overpairs here. I don't expect a really good reg to try bluffing or semibluffing unknowns (also assuming villain doesn't know you) with overpair-heavy ranges. For that reason, I don't think he shows up w/ {AdKd, AdQd, etc.} often here either, nor {TT} or {JJ} because the balance of overpairs in your range are better than {TT} or {JJ}.

To me looks more like he knows you're going to call it off w/ this exact hand and he wants that to happen now in case a 3rd diamond or 4-to-a-straight or an ace or king peels OTR thus killing his action. Much easier to get stacks in w/ his {AA, KK} OTT than OTR given how the board has run out thus far.

It's a really good bet by villain IMO. I'd fold. I mean getting it in here wouldn't be crazy because, yeah, you do win sometimes, but not often--it's not an ideal spot to get your stack in.
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Old 09-15-2018, 06:10 AM   #6
stas_kl11
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Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by jl121 View Post
Your stats? Have you been nitting it up pre due to the stakes being out of your comfort zone?

You beat {TT, JJ}, you lose to {99, KK, AA}.

I'm assuming he's never seen you before--meaning he's putting you on a pretty strong range here when you open the pot in a position that isn't CO, BTN, or SB.

Don't think he has {Ad5d}, I believe that hand plays much better as a defend than it does as a light 3-bet vs your (assumed) tight open range.

In fact--and maybe I'm biased bc I know your hand--but it's pretty easy to put you on this exact hand, maybe you can be a little weaker like {JJ} or {TT} are in your range I guess but in any case your range is almost all overpairs here. I don't expect a really good reg to try bluffing or semibluffing unknowns (also assuming villain doesn't know you) with overpair-heavy ranges. For that reason, I don't think he shows up w/ {AdKd, AdQd, etc.} often here either, nor {TT} or {JJ} because the balance of overpairs in your range are better than {TT} or {JJ}.

To me looks more like he knows you're going to call it off w/ this exact hand and he wants that to happen now in case a 3rd diamond or 4-to-a-straight or an ace or king peels OTR thus killing his action. Much easier to get stacks in w/ his {AA, KK} OTT than OTR given how the board has run out thus far.

It's a really good bet by villain IMO. I'd fold. I mean getting it in here wouldn't be crazy because, yeah, you do win sometimes, but not often--it's not an ideal spot to get your stack in.
I had 3rd place in this tourney couple of month ago, i am a regular player so its not out of my comfort zone. Just play a lil bit lower stakes. I haven't been niting, played like normal tournament.
i sam him earlier 3beting QQ on bb the same sizing agains 45 bb stack. He seen me before for sure, we played before.

So u think its an easy fold? Maybe, after a big bet on the flop i should have something here...
Yeah agree he played very good and yeah seems like he knows what i have here.
so u think AK he will not 3bet and play this way?
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Old 09-15-2018, 01:04 PM   #7
jl121
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Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by stas_kl11 View Post
I had 3rd place in this tourney couple of month ago, i am a regular player so its not out of my comfort zone. Just play a lil bit lower stakes. I haven't been niting, played like normal tournament.
i sam him earlier 3beting QQ on bb the same sizing agains 45 bb stack. He seen me before for sure, we played before.

So u think its an easy fold? Maybe, after a big bet on the flop i should have something here...
Yeah agree he played very good and yeah seems like he knows what i have here.
so u think AK he will not 3bet and play this way?
The more history you guys have the more semibluffs are in his range IMO. Vs an unknown I dont think a sicko is ever bluffing to try to get them to lay down an overpair on this board. It seems every time they always convince themselves "He has AK" and they call w/ their {QQ} or whatever. Hence why I think he's heavily weighted towards value. Even moreso if the guy with {QQ} isnt a nit or isnt out of their comfort zone--ovrrpairs just almost always end up calling it off here. Dont think its +EV to play {AdKd} this was if youre always gettting looked up OTT with 30% equity.

And NFD+2 over combos are just a small sliver of his range, not to mention they still have 12-15 outs. Vs his range youre just not in great shape. But hey, he sounds like a sicko so who knows
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Old 09-15-2018, 04:38 PM   #8
stas_kl11
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Re: 100 euro night on stars huge pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by jl121 View Post
The more history you guys have the more semibluffs are in his range IMO. Vs an unknown I dont think a sicko is ever bluffing to try to get them to lay down an overpair on this board. It seems every time they always convince themselves "He has AK" and they call w/ their {QQ} or whatever. Hence why I think he's heavily weighted towards value. Even moreso if the guy with {QQ} isnt a nit or isnt out of their comfort zone--ovrrpairs just almost always end up calling it off here. Dont think its +EV to play {AdKd} this was if youre always gettting looked up OTT with 30% equity.

And NFD+2 over combos are just a small sliver of his range, not to mention they still have 12-15 outs. Vs his range youre just not in great shape. But hey, he sounds like a sicko so who knows
Understand, probably u r right, even if he has some AK and JJ, TT, against the range i am not in good shape. It's very tricky spot, i was not so good to fold here but after analysis i think its clear fold. Just 1st time i am facing spot like this (playing regularly for 4 years). Feeling bad to punt such phat stack instead of just folding... Hope next time i ll not make such mistake. Wish i could revind time lol
thx for answers


KK u 4 bet pre or just call and call shove?
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