So, this hand was the first of many I feel I totally ****ed up on my way to bubbling this 36 man six max. Up until this point, I felt I played great - nice TAG style without overly complicating things, and generally just grinding away. Pays top 6 (first like 1200, min cash like 150)

Currently we are 3 handed (the other table has 4 people), and we've been on this bubble for a good 30 minutes. A couple of levels prior, the V in question was moved to our table with triple the average stack and is just entering the pot almost 100% of the hands playing like a total maniac and running like god cutting the field down from 12 to 7 largely on his own. A few hands prior I had 3 bet him with AK out of the BB, he flatted in the SB with A5of, and he check jammed a K 10 5 flop doubling me up for a pretty significant size pot. OTH....

Blinds 400/800 Ante(100 ish? can't recall exactly)

Hero (BB) 38K
A4

V (BTN) ~ all the chips (115Kish)

V opens to 1800, SB folds, Hero calls

(so maybe my first mistake as I normally would mix this into my 3 betting range but we are in the BB, he's been flatting almost all 3 bets, and I don't want to inflate the pot out of position) - welcome thoughts - his range is literally ATC's in my mind except maybe, totally ridiculous hands lik 72 off or 93 off etc- but even hands like J2 suited+ 105 suited -any ace, any pair, any high card suited or unsuited etc

Flop (4100 ish)

543

Hero Checks, V bets 1500, Hero Calls (I think this is best option as played but please let me know)

Turn (7100)

8

Hero checks, V bets 3000, Hero Calls

River (13K)

9

Hero Checks, V bets 7000, Hero?

Given V's described range why are you not 3-betting pre? You say he's gonna call all 3-bets. But what more can you want since you are way ahead of an ATC range? Then you definitely get to take the intiative on this flop. If he tries to take it away, I think you get it in.

As played, I think I x/c all the way down. His described range can easily have a 5, 8 or 9 (or 67) but has way more air.

Thanks. I totally agree. I don't know why i didn't 3 bet. As played, I played it exactly as you describe.

I think flatting pre is better. Do we want to 3bet bluff vs a villain that is super sticky?

Flop - standard defend.

Turn - if you decide to call the turn then you gotta be prepared to call down on lots of rivers coz you know that there is a good chance to getting barreled. I do not know what the correct play is but I would personally fold the turn because I feel very uncomfortable calling down vs villains that can have any two and jeopardize my tournament life especially in such an advance stage. Surely, if villains is super aggro and spewy, you can screw him up in another hand where you will have much easier call down.

he sounds like a maniac so I probably wouldn't 3 bet this out of position. Flop is fine and like the poster above said you either call turn/call river or fold turn. If he's a barreling maniac then obviously just go call call - it's obvious you have a pair at this point and he's still betting. It's high variance and some portion of the time you'll run into better, but if he's just firing away like a maniac it's a real easy call down

Your goal is to take him to value town with the huge implied odds he is giving, due to icm I don’t think 3bet is good.

3 bet would be terrible , in a heavy ICM spot bloating the pot out of position vs a villain who is unlikely to ever fold

River is tricky , we have a very reasonable bluff catcher but our risk premium is high.
If we call and are wrong we still have a very manageable 30big blinds and I imagine the described Villain blasts off on this run out a lot. Decision is fairly whatever and this is unlikely to be the pivotal hand in your demise.

lots of good advice and feedback. thanks guys

This is always going to be a tough spot for you to realize your equity. My sim showed your exact hand has 62% equity on the flop, but only realizes 44%. That is without considering ICM.

Since Villain is so wide, he can have a ton of bluffs; any 6x or 7x make for appealing bluffs since he blocks the nuts. The runout is such that Villain can go for value VERY wide. In theory we are supposed to call/call, then river is zero ev. This happens a lot with marginal bluff catchers. If Villain is overbluffing river as a 3 barrel, which I expect he is, you can just close your eyes and call...

Looking at PIOs river range for Villain, he has very few give ups. He isn't supposed to be betting his unimproved 5x; the weakest hand he bets for value is 66.

One important factor you didn't mention is where you stand relative to the other stacks. This is important on the bubble.

That is why I recommend 3-bet pre. You are so far ahead of his range that you should take away the initiative, and fire on all flops you reasonably connect with. I think that reverses the tree -- if he shoves on this flop, I'd just get it in. The only alternative is to fold pre, which seems so weak/exploitable.

flatting pre is fine, i'm pretty sure (IIRC) that you were like 2nd in chips so 3-betting seems like ICM suicide on the bubble here.

Think your line is fine, would just fold river. Sucks but I think you have to.

Min cash is $150 in a $100 entry, I'm not too worried about ICM here.

I'd probably just fold turn. You can have better hands in the BB.

Yes, ICM does matter. It's the difference between $0 and $150. You can not care, but that doesn't make it right.

I'm not saying ICM does not matter, I'm saying that in this structure, the extra cEV and chance to position myself for a top 3 is worth missing a min cash due to variance. If we are ranging V correctly, we are miles ahead of his range pre-flop and should 3! and take the initiative. Otherwise, we likely find ourselves in the situation of H, OOP with a marginal hand against an ultra-laggy V.

If you 3 bet you still have a marginal hand out of position , except the SPR is more uncomfortable and the 'ultra laggy V' will see a bigger pot and be more incentivised to blast you off post flop.

But I think we bet that flop (and all flops we have a piece of) and get it in much more comfortably if V moves on the flop.

by 3 betting this you are praying the villain don't 4 bet you with his value hands along with a bunch of crap, which he can afford to do so.

The chip ev you gain by 3betting isn't worth the ICM tax you impose on yourself.

This was the other complication, I was 2nd or 3rd in chips with such a healthy stack, I felt like I should just let it go but it was constant and we were short after for almost an hour (3 handed) waiting for the final six. Not ideal with the two biggest stacks etc.