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Is it variance or what? Is it variance or what?

05-12-2014 , 12:51 PM
Tpirahna, Zzeigler, Debilne_Ucho……..all this year -£150k ….read on other forums they are star and best so how i learn from these guys…..if they loser too how anyone win ?:confused :
05-12-2014 , 05:17 PM
limit holdem is a game with very small edges these days, especially at those very high stakes where almost everyone is very good and are just chasing around a few fish.

and shorthanded limit holdem is a game with very high variance already.

so, small edges + high variance = very reasonable for good players to lose over sample sizes of 50k, 100k, 200k hands, or whatever people are at so far this year.

the long run is very long in limit holdem so it's always a bit hard to tell if previous solid winners were running above expectation or not. but if guys had nice winrates over millions of hands, and are breaking even/losing this year in a much smaller sample, i'd think sample size/variance would be a main factor, and so could game quality/winrate.
05-12-2014 , 06:54 PM
where do you see them all down this much?
05-12-2014 , 08:34 PM
http://www.highstakesdb.com

Zzeigler YTD -$85k (5k hands)
Tpirahna YTD -$21k (9k hands)
Debilne_Ucho YTD -$37k (25k hands)

Bigbadbabar good answer - thank you - I see now not all players same variance bad - ZZeigler bad year bad year and then bad year - always bad year….Tpirahna have good year and year but 2014 not so good. Debilne_Ucho have good year, good year and then lose all of previous years good in 2014 - maybe tilty bad.

Maybe they play much at not so high limit and have +ev but why take +ev from other and give on small edge + high variance game …is insane mans mad !!!
05-12-2014 , 10:06 PM
i think maybe that website only tracks very high stakes games (perhaps above a certain stake), or has very incomplete info.

i know for example tpirahna puts his results on his blog. if you google 'tpirahna blog' you can find it easily. and he has way more hands than 9k this year. most of these guys are playing a wide range of stakes.
05-13-2014 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar
i think maybe that website only tracks very high stakes games (perhaps above a certain stake), or has very incomplete info.

i know for example tpirahna puts his results on his blog. if you google 'tpirahna blog' you can find it easily. and he has way more hands than 9k this year. most of these guys are playing a wide range of stakes.
These players are pounding the tables too, limit is a game you put in the hours to over come variance. In the long rung, good play pays off but as some have said, these days limit games are getting really tough!
05-13-2014 , 12:58 PM
Sweet level op
05-13-2014 , 01:15 PM
Here's tpirahna's blog. He says he's up overall, but running/playing/doing terrible at high stakes. OP's HSDB numbers look like 100/200+. 22K sample = yawn, though I'm sure it is painful to be the guy doing it. He's up $overall and almost 1/4 of the way to SNE, so what is that in RB$? Almost $40k? Horrible year so far (his words were "In terms of money won, it's my worst start to a year in nine years as a pro") and he's up over $40k in poker + RB.

Assuming OP is legit asking, at least tpirahna is still making reasonable bank. No idea about the other 2 guy's checking balances, but I assume they're OK as well. Poker being a tough way to make money this year? I'd assume that as a given.
05-13-2014 , 05:59 PM
I am a regular reader of his blog and it is a fascinating insight to how one of the best limit players in the world (IMO) is still subject to all the human factors there are in being a pro poker player. Its not just a case of "I've got great at this game and thats it" - things are constantly changing - the games getting tougher, players are still subject to variance and as BigBadBabar said the edges are very small. The OP is only seeing a small fraction of what these guys are playing though as the majority are multi tabling multiple stakes......so Im not crying too much for them ...yet!

Isn't their a biblical story about laying up corn in the great years so that when the fallow years hit there is enough to see people through - Im sure these guys are sitting on the profits from the much better years and who knows what the future holds. Maybe the US will "see the light" and the ban lifted and a hoards of new US players will come back on line?

As for learning from them - the guys mentioned and a load more who regularly play the PS High Limit games still have a huge amount you can learn from.

Anyone know of any other blogs that any of the HS Limit players have?
05-15-2014 , 09:12 PM
HSDB only track 100/200+. The variance in these games are insane you are battle 4 other really good player and one recreational but decent player. Plus you have to be on your computer 24/7 and have all tables open and be ready in 5 sec to sit down once the one guy sit. And it not a guarantee that it will last more then a few mins. This is what I dream of once I reach the top.
05-16-2014 , 06:49 PM
HSDB only tracks 50/100 and above for limit games, so what you are seeing, as others have alluded to, is mostly stake variance.

They may very well be crushing the 10, 15, and 30 games they probably get most of their volume at, but haven't fared as well in HS tracked games over a small sample.

Plus, as DJ mentioned, the highest stakes games are 4 other pros and an aggressive rec who probably has at least one advantage (not caring about the money as much).

It's not like these guys are out there Breyfogling . . .

      
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