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Old 05-05-2005, 03:01 PM   #151
TimM
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

Preflop: is with , .

Flop: (1.50 SB)

This is not possible.

What was the PF action? I assume raise, call, call, with 6 SB on the flop.
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Old 05-05-2005, 03:02 PM   #152
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

I didn't notice he only had backdoor on the flop. I don't like the flop call but I also don't think it's a horrible play.
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Old 05-05-2005, 03:05 PM   #153
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

Quote:
Preflop: is with , .

Flop: (1.50 SB)

This is not possible.

What was the PF action? I assume raise, call, call, with 6 SB on the flop.
Of course it's possible. Limp, complete, check.
-James
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Old 05-05-2005, 03:08 PM   #154
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

Quote:
Quote:
Preflop: is with , .

Flop: (1.50 SB)

This is not possible.

What was the PF action? I assume raise, call, call, with 6 SB on the flop.
Of course it's possible. Limp, complete, check.
-James
That's 3 SB, unless some players are all in (obviously not based on post-flop). Converter is broken.
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Old 05-05-2005, 03:15 PM   #155
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Preflop: is with , .

Flop: (1.50 SB)

This is not possible.

What was the PF action? I assume raise, call, call, with 6 SB on the flop.
Of course it's possible. Limp, complete, check.
-James
That's 3 SB, unless some players are all in (obviously not based on post-flop). Converter is broken.
Oh I was assuming it was 1.5 BB. My fault.
-James
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Old 05-05-2005, 03:37 PM   #156
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

I wish I could run one-tenth as good.

The luckiest player in the world--he'll be in GA within a couple of years.
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Old 05-05-2005, 04:41 PM   #157
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

Quote:
This hand is entirely unremarkable. I think DERB played it well.
sarcasm meter?
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Old 05-05-2005, 04:50 PM   #158
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Re: DERB

Quote:
He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware? That same day he called 2 bets cold in his BB in a 3 way pot with QTo against a 3 bettor who only raised 10 percent of his hands and the original raiser who raises 12. Could even Ray Zee churn a profit with QTo in this scenario, much less someone who pays off in the most obvious laydown situations? The simple answer is no, of course not.
No one is arguing that he plays every hand in a +EV way, only that he is (maybe) a winning player overall.

You don't have to line up on one side or the other here, it isn't necessarily that he made this play with AJ for metagame reasons if he really is a 3bb/100 player, or that he automatically sucks because he had a 0% chance of winning this hand. It's certainly possible that he wins despite horrible leaks. His win rate doesn't have to be 3bb/100 or something in the negative. It's possible that the guy is somewhere close to break even.
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Old 05-05-2005, 05:07 PM   #159
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Re: DERB

Quote:
Not when you have expert knowledge that he doesn't play to a 3bb/100h.
I have no idea if he is a winning player, but his numbers suggest it's very likely he is. That's all I'm saying.

You guys are saying he's bad, very bad...more like a -3BB/100 hands players, OK. But the numbers suggest that it's very unlikely he is as bad as a break even player.

So we have to at least consider the idea that is more likely he is a winning player.
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Old 05-05-2005, 05:10 PM   #160
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Re: DERB

Quote:
Over the course of a year, it is overwhelmingly likely that one of them would run extremely well. It is very possible that DERB is that one guy.
But running well for a -3BB/100 hand guy is breaking even, breaking even for 100k hands puts them in the top 1% of lucky players. This guy is way off the charts.

It's possible he is a very bad player, running very well, it's also very unlikely, that's all I'm saying.
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Old 05-05-2005, 05:18 PM   #161
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Re: DERB

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The data is not lying, it's just misleading you. I'm sure you've played high plenty of times. So have I! I am not appealing to J_V's authority - I have logged 5 figures worth of hands against this player also and can tell you that the amount that he loses to decent players far exceeds the amount he wins from players that are overly tight(in terms of expectation and not results). Several players who have actually logged hands with this player are saying that he makes extremely fundamental mistakes but you are just saying "it's impossible for this player to just be running well!!!" You must concede that it is at least possible that someone could run this well while not playing a +EV style. That much seems obvious. And if it is possible - why can't this player be the one who is? 5 players have come forth who are big winners in this game and others saying that they are sure he is a loser, but you stand firm in your position in spite of never having logged a hand with him.

He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware? That same day he called 2 bets cold in his BB in a 3 way pot with QTo against a 3 bettor who only raised 10 percent of his hands and the original raiser who raises 12. Could even Ray Zee churn a profit with QTo in this scenario, much less someone who pays off in the most obvious laydown situations? The simple answer is no, of course not. But you can continue to spout of inane claims like "I know several people who win at high limits who play 1/3 of their hands." Cool, so let's see your log of their last 100,000 hands with these stats and we can start thinking that this is more than an anamoly. The simple fact is you can't provide this. You have some anecdotal evidence that is likely from live play - which means you don't even know how many hands they play or what they actually win or lose. I just have no clue how you can argue so vehemently about something with which you have no experience.
-James
I think this sums it up nicely
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Old 05-05-2005, 05:42 PM   #162
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Re: DERB

Some stats, using J_V's original numbers:

Quote:
Don't ever run bad. Party 30/60 player:

{{Hands 73,824 - VIP 30 - R 17 - NF 21 - ag 2.0
Total winnings: $114,281

Routinely 3 bets small pocket pairs from bb, caps certainly dominated hands.

Fishy?
This results in:
BB/100: 2.58

If we assume that:

(1) DERB has std deviation of 2 BB per game (which I believe is reasonably conservative - the std deviation I have experienced in full-ring 15/30 is 1.74 BB per game);

(2) He is a breakeven player (ie, expected win rate is 0 BB/100)

Then with a confidence of 99.7% (3 std dev), his win rate over 73,824 hands will fall between -2.22 and +2.22 BB/100.

I will let you draw your own conclusions from this.
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Old 05-05-2005, 10:44 PM   #163
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Re: DERB

I went through some DERB hands on my tracker today. I didn't find a lot of hands where he played particularly poorly postflop, although there certainly were a few where better players could have made a laydown. But tight laydowns on the turn aren't exactly the way to win on partypoker (also I'm only looking at hands where I see his cards, so I'm not seeing spots where he did make a laydown) But his preflop standards are atrocious. I have many hands where he cold calls early raises with KJo, QJo, and Axs. He simply will not fold QJo preflop.
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Old 05-05-2005, 11:22 PM   #164
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Re: DERB

I'm surprised no one has suggest the possibility that this player loses money w/ the awful plays that everyone has mentioned, but is still a winning player in this game, at perhaps .5 BB / 100 or something. Although I haven't palyed with him, this seems like the most mathematically likely scenario.

Edit: I shouldn't have really said no one suggested the possibility. It justs seems to have been overlooked in many posts.
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Old 05-06-2005, 12:07 AM   #165
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Re: DERB

Very plausible. However, I believe that the possibility of highly sophisticated team play cannot be ignored. I would humbly suggest that this forum needs to seriously and methodically address this question.

I don't even know where to start, but here's a a few questions I'm interested in:

(1) Over what time period has DERB accumulated these winnings?

(2) What players are in the pot when DERB makes unusual preflop decisions, and what do their stats say about them?

Not sure where these questions lead, or even if they are the right questions to ask. As such, I'm interested in any good info on team play that others can point me to. I have yet to review the Russ Georgiev web site - is there any value to doing so?

Thanks.
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Old 05-06-2005, 12:12 AM   #166
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Re: DERB Acts a fool

Sorry, I didn't proofread my post. I never post observed hand histories, I guess bison's hand converter doesn't like them. Here is the HH with manual modifications:

***** Hand History for Game 1977402981 *****
$30/$60 Hold'em - Saturday, April 30, 14:30:06 EDT 2005
Table Beauty & the Beast (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: SB ( $1111 )
Seat 6: DERB ( $3301.5 )
Seat 4: Button ( $1530 )
Seat 8: ( $1698 )
Seat 9: ( $961 )
Seat 1: ( $1772.7 )
Seat 3: ( $1740 )
Seat 7: ( $3006 )
Seat 10 $4814 )
Seat 2: ( $214.5 )
SB posts small blind [$15].
DERB posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
6 Players fold.
Button raises [$60].
SB calls [$45].
DERB calls [$30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, Ah, 7s ]
SB checks.
DERB checks.
Button bets [$30].
SB calls [$30].
DERB calls [$30].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
SB checks.
DERB checks.
Button bets [$60].
SB folds.
DERB calls [$60].
** Dealing River ** [ Qd ]
DERB bets [$60].
Button calls [$60].
DERB shows [ 6s, Qs ] a pair of queens.
Button doesn't show [ Ks, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
DERB wins $507 from the main pot with a pair of queens.
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Old 05-06-2005, 12:23 AM   #167
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Re: DERB

Quote:
Very plausible. However, I believe that the possibility of highly sophisticated team play cannot be ignored. I would humbly suggest that this forum needs to seriously and methodically address this question.

I don't even know where to start, but here's a a few questions I'm interested in:

(1) Over what time period has DERB accumulated these winnings?

(2) What players are in the pot when DERB makes unusual preflop decisions, and what do their stats say about them?

Not sure where these questions lead, or even if they are the right questions to ask. As such, I'm interested in any good info on team play that others can point me to. I have yet to review the Russ Georgiev web site - is there any value to doing so?

Thanks.
He makes these moves indescriminately. He will make them on the most seasoned regulars who never fold to him to unknowns to weak tights.
-Jaames
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Old 05-06-2005, 12:50 AM   #168
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Re: DERB

Show me the data to support this statement.
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Old 05-06-2005, 01:20 AM   #169
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Re: DERB

Quote:
Show me the data to support this statement.
Why does he need data? It's not enough that he plays a lot of hands with him and watches how he plays?
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Old 05-06-2005, 01:21 AM   #170
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Re: DERB

I don't know if this was mentioned already but are there any other players with similarly out of line stats? They dont have to be as extreme.
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Old 05-06-2005, 01:38 AM   #171
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Re: DERB

Quote:
Show me the data to support this statement.
You think I am going to dig through my database to prove this to you? Surely, I have better things to do than that. How about this: I have played 5 figures worth of hands with him and called him down in innumerable bluffing situations and picked him off with as little as ace high, but he still tries them against me. This is the evidence I offer you, Detective Fat Tony, take it or leave it.
-James
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Old 05-06-2005, 01:53 AM   #172
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Re: DERB

He doesn't need to show me the data - if his experience is good enough for him, that's fine. However, with all due respect, I remain unconvinced unless I can see the data for myself. Otherwise, it might be fair for others to label me a dolt.

I'm interesting in exploring the issue, but this can only be done when we use the data to seperate the facts from the opinions.
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Old 05-06-2005, 02:06 AM   #173
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Re: DERB

You have better things to do with your time - I can respect that. However, if I (or anyone else) are going to draw valid conclusions from what you (or anyone else) say in this chain, then what you offer is not enough. No disrespect intended.

I think one of two things are going on: either a person can win with 30% VPIP, or there's something fishy going on. (The statistics say that this is probably more than just luck.) Either way, I want to know the facts.
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Old 05-06-2005, 02:16 AM   #174
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Re: DERB

Quote:
either a person can win with 30% VPIP
I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing that it is impossible to win with a 30% VPIP. In fact, I think almost any of the well respected posters in this forum would still be winners if they were forced to get their vpip up to 30%.

This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw
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Old 05-06-2005, 02:30 AM   #175
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Re: DERB

Quote:
This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw
I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.
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