Preflop: is with , .

Flop: (1.50 SB)

This is not possible.

What was the PF action? I assume raise, call, call, with 6 SB on the flop.

I didn't notice he only had backdoor on the flop. I don't like the flop call but I also don't think it's a horrible play.

Of course it's possible. Limp, complete, check.
-James

That's 3 SB, unless some players are all in (obviously not based on post-flop). Converter is broken.

Oh I was assuming it was 1.5 BB. My fault.
-James

I wish I could run one-tenth as good.

The luckiest player in the world--he'll be in GA within a couple of years.

sarcasm meter?

No one is arguing that he plays every hand in a +EV way, only that he is (maybe) a winning player overall.

You don't have to line up on one side or the other here, it isn't necessarily that he made this play with AJ for metagame reasons if he really is a 3bb/100 player, or that he automatically sucks because he had a 0% chance of winning this hand. It's certainly possible that he wins despite horrible leaks. His win rate doesn't have to be 3bb/100 or something in the negative. It's possible that the guy is somewhere close to break even.

I have no idea if he is a winning player, but his numbers suggest it's very likely he is. That's all I'm saying.

You guys are saying he's bad, very bad...more like a -3BB/100 hands players, OK. But the numbers suggest that it's very unlikely he is as bad as a break even player.

So we have to at least consider the idea that is more likely he is a winning player.

But running well for a -3BB/100 hand guy is breaking even, breaking even for 100k hands puts them in the top 1% of lucky players. This guy is way off the charts.

It's possible he is a very bad player, running very well, it's also very unlikely, that's all I'm saying.

I think this sums it up nicely

Some stats, using J_V's original numbers:

This results in:
BB/100: 2.58

If we assume that:

(1) DERB has std deviation of 2 BB per game (which I believe is reasonably conservative - the std deviation I have experienced in full-ring 15/30 is 1.74 BB per game);

(2) He is a breakeven player (ie, expected win rate is 0 BB/100)

Then with a confidence of 99.7% (3 std dev), his win rate over 73,824 hands will fall between -2.22 and +2.22 BB/100.

I will let you draw your own conclusions from this.

I went through some DERB hands on my tracker today. I didn't find a lot of hands where he played particularly poorly postflop, although there certainly were a few where better players could have made a laydown. But tight laydowns on the turn aren't exactly the way to win on partypoker (also I'm only looking at hands where I see his cards, so I'm not seeing spots where he did make a laydown) But his preflop standards are atrocious. I have many hands where he cold calls early raises with KJo, QJo, and Axs. He simply will not fold QJo preflop.

I'm surprised no one has suggest the possibility that this player loses money w/ the awful plays that everyone has mentioned, but is still a winning player in this game, at perhaps .5 BB / 100 or something. Although I haven't palyed with him, this seems like the most mathematically likely scenario.

Edit: I shouldn't have really said no one suggested the possibility. It justs seems to have been overlooked in many posts.

Very plausible. However, I believe that the possibility of highly sophisticated team play cannot be ignored. I would humbly suggest that this forum needs to seriously and methodically address this question.

I don't even know where to start, but here's a a few questions I'm interested in:

(1) Over what time period has DERB accumulated these winnings?

(2) What players are in the pot when DERB makes unusual preflop decisions, and what do their stats say about them?

Not sure where these questions lead, or even if they are the right questions to ask. As such, I'm interested in any good info on team play that others can point me to. I have yet to review the Russ Georgiev web site - is there any value to doing so?

Thanks.

Sorry, I didn't proofread my post. I never post observed hand histories, I guess bison's hand converter doesn't like them. Here is the HH with manual modifications:

***** Hand History for Game 1977402981 *****
$30/$60 Hold'em - Saturday, April 30, 14:30:06 EDT 2005
Table Beauty & the Beast (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: SB ( $1111 )
Seat 6: DERB ( $3301.5 )
Seat 4: Button ( $1530 )
Seat 8: ( $1698 )
Seat 9: ( $961 )
Seat 1: ( $1772.7 )
Seat 3: ( $1740 )
Seat 7: ( $3006 )
Seat 10 $4814 )
Seat 2: ( $214.5 )
SB posts small blind [$15].
DERB posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
6 Players fold.
Button raises [$60].
SB calls [$45].
DERB calls [$30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, Ah, 7s ]
SB checks.
DERB checks.
Button bets [$30].
SB calls [$30].
DERB calls [$30].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
SB checks.
DERB checks.
Button bets [$60].
SB folds.
DERB calls [$60].
** Dealing River ** [ Qd ]
DERB bets [$60].
Button calls [$60].
DERB shows [ 6s, Qs ] a pair of queens.
Button doesn't show [ Ks, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
DERB wins $507 from the main pot with a pair of queens.

He makes these moves indescriminately. He will make them on the most seasoned regulars who never fold to him to unknowns to weak tights.
-Jaames

Show me the data to support this statement.

Why does he need data? It's not enough that he plays a lot of hands with him and watches how he plays?

I don't know if this was mentioned already but are there any other players with similarly out of line stats? They dont have to be as extreme.

You think I am going to dig through my database to prove this to you? Surely, I have better things to do than that. How about this: I have played 5 figures worth of hands with him and called him down in innumerable bluffing situations and picked him off with as little as ace high, but he still tries them against me. This is the evidence I offer you, Detective Fat Tony, take it or leave it.
-James

He doesn't need to show me the data - if his experience is good enough for him, that's fine. However, with all due respect, I remain unconvinced unless I can see the data for myself. Otherwise, it might be fair for others to label me a dolt.

I'm interesting in exploring the issue, but this can only be done when we use the data to seperate the facts from the opinions.

You have better things to do with your time - I can respect that. However, if I (or anyone else) are going to draw valid conclusions from what you (or anyone else) say in this chain, then what you offer is not enough. No disrespect intended.

I think one of two things are going on: either a person can win with 30% VPIP, or there's something fishy going on. (The statistics say that this is probably more than just luck.) Either way, I want to know the facts.

I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing that it is impossible to win with a 30% VPIP. In fact, I think almost any of the well respected posters in this forum would still be winners if they were forced to get their vpip up to 30%.

This would make a GREAT proposition bet btw

I think a great prop bet about VPIP would be to see who could have the highest VPIP and win the most in whatever limit over whatever ammount.

Anyways, I find this entire thread hilarious. Keep it up well respected mid-high posters! I'm having a blast watching you all get your panties in a bunch.