RE: The lotto winner comment.

Exactly. Read this post if you are a non-believer.

a 2+2 lottery winner

We don't see the guys with these numbers who come in with 10k and go bust. Most of them go bust at 2/4. Some people have the roll and get lucky, that's poker guys.
-James

i've only played very little, and done datamining at 30/60, but i'm pretty sure that i know guy you're talking about. i have a few databases with him on it, and he's been running VERY GOOD on all of them.

I don't like to believe that there is a lot of cheating going on at Party, but I have to admit that this guys' stats are a little bit suspicious. And if I was looking to support the assumption that he is in fact colluding, then there's a decent amount of evidence in his stats:

-He has a very high W$WSF, esp for somebody with such a high VPIP. of course this could be sign of running well, but it seems strange that he's close to the same % in all 3 of my DB's.

-He has a stange combination of REALLY high Went to showdown, and folded to river bet. Of course, this could just mean that he's got very good reads on players, and folds a lot when he knows he's beat on the end... but the thing that I find more convincing is that his W$SD when just calling on the river is pretty damn low. so this would go against the theory that he just folds when he knows he's beat.

-his W$@SD after bet/raised turn is very low... suggesting he could be in a raising war with somebody else, trying to push other players out.

I'm not saying that this is at all conclusive, but it does seem that if somebody were colluding, they would have stats similar to this guys. if he's in there with another guy betting/raising to knock the other players out on the flop and turn, then he'd have very high Aggr factors, and very high W$WSF which he does. Also, many on here are talking about how much he "draws out", and if he were doin colluding, then of course when they run into somebody with a real hand who can withstand all the betting/raising, the pot will have gotten so big that he'll need to continue and draw to his miracle card. also, his W$@SD when calling a river bet would be low, since he'll have a really big pot with great odds to try and call for one bet, even though his when folded to river bet is high, since only the one with the better hand (him or his partner) would need to call a bet at the end.

41.65%

mine is 41.98...

sick i tell you, sick.

-Barron

i have his W$WSF at about 42

42 is absurd. thats more than mine at 6max.

I just wanted to check Nate's BB/100 calcs based on the stats:

BB/100 = (.753 * VPIP) - (.0102 * (VPIP^2)) + (.435 * W$SD) + (.658 * W$WSF) - 56.12

His comes out to about 6.4457BB/100

Pretty silly, although I don't know what the outcome of Nate's formula was!

My W$WSF in the 30/60 is 44.7 with a W$SD just over 52, although I've been running well in that game myself. Your W$WSF should be pretty high in this game since so many pots are contested 2- and 3-handed.

ok so its a conditional probability if you break it down in 10k # of hands up to 100K...

what is the pr(winning at a rate of 3bb/100 given DERB's stats)=Pr(Derb) for A=10k hands. B=next 10khands. up to J=last 10k hands.

so the Pr(Derb|{A-J}) is what we're lookin for...and i'll tell ya thats definately lottery winner style probability.

-Barron

well now i see where i need to improve abit...maybe i'll move to the HUSH forum for a while...either that or stop being your slot machine.

44% is real good nate....im at 41.98.

-Barron

I'm at like 40% in full-handed 15/30 games so I'm sure it will come down some.

One thing is that I basically never open-limp in the 30, which should result in a higher W$WSF.

I have had a long discussion with my 18 year old son about the differences between geeks, nerds and dorks.

Based upon that, Barron you are a geek not a dork. For what it's worth, being a geek is way, way better than being a dork.

so i should stop limping 77 UTG? ... and 55 when the game looks good...you raise 77 that far outa position?

its too good to fold and i like limpers...i need to adjust pf strategy for this game i think so im ALWAYS raising utg, apparantly...

what about JTs (i limp 100% with it in the 15 game but only do so when the game doesn't look totally aggressive now...but then again, i dont lrr enough so limping should be inherently bad)

-Barron

I have no fundamental problem with open-raising 77 or JTs from anywhere on the table depending on the usual things.

James,
I feel it's more likely that Poker Paul had forged his database results by purging his losing sessions, which is very easy to do in PT. He may not have been the "lottery winner" that his winrate would suggest he was.

I tend to believe him because he came back a few weeks later complaining about 280 bb downswing, which seemed pretty honest. Obviously there is no way to tell for sure.
-James

I'd say the chances of him colluding are very low. He's not raising anyone out of pots with a partner because nearly every pot is 2 handed on the turn and the party 30/60 community would notice this very fast since there are only 6 tables. Everyone just plays together too much to get away with that.

He really just goes to war on the turn. He'll check behind a ton of rivers.

Also, so people know, W$WSF is around 10% higher for people in the 30/60 game since less people see each flop.

Lastly, I have a bit over 30k hands with him and he's about a 1.8 BB/100 winner on it. He's gonna have to run real good to get it up to 3.

Very lastly, I think socuties knows him or has at least spoken with him and undoubtably knows more about him then me. If anyone knows if he posts to 2+2 have him chime in.

-f

Apparently this is not how teams collude. See my other post in this thread for a link to articles on this topic.

-Brad

Yes, good teams collude by denying others proper odds through folding when teammate is ahead. But him playing 30% of hands doesn't fit with that. Also I was more specifically replying to someone who thought he might be pumping it with a partner.

-f

Ok, well I really don't know what a "proper" colluding team does, but if this is the case then never mind what I was saying.

Is a close to 50% folding to river bet very high in that game, or do people not bluff as much on the end? that still seemed to me like the strangest of his stats, esp combined with a high went to showdown, and a low wonSD% when called river bet. Maybe these are just the types of numbers that are normal with that high a VPIP and aggression levels though, i don't know?

anyways, you guys are probably right about how it woudl be tough to cheat in a game like that with so many "regulars". At the same time it would be tougher for Party to prove too much, since being at the same table with certain players all the time doesn't prove anything with only 6 games going. esp if you had several different accounts on different skins and switched off between them, it woudln't be that hard for a sophisticated colluder to slip under the radar i would think.

I do aggree with others that he's probably just running REALLY, REALLY hot, but just out of curiousity, what type of PT numbers would one have if they were colluding with other players?

If I could see 2 others hands I wouldn't need to collude in the traditional way! I would always be a couple of seats closer to the button then everyone else.
If I am in the hijack seat and I am colluding with the button and SB I would have a huge advantage with my starting requirements which would result in very high Preflop #'s. I could basically start allot looser then everyone else with a huge advantage. I would appear to be a cannon b/c of my starting requirements but basically I would be 2 spots better then it appears.
This would be the perfect way to collude in a tight game like 30-60 Party.
Hogger

I've noticed that playing opponents in this VPIP range is very difficult because, unlike your typical 2+2 TAG, I have trouble putting them on hands. I will have to check but I recall checking some 15/30 stats a while back and while most players with a >25 vpip are losers, some of the biggest winners were between 28 and 35. By contrast, supertights (<18) were sometime good winners and sometime slight losers (never big losers). I firmly believe that your avg player (like me) cannot win with such a high VPIP, but I also believe that it is more likely that the best player in the world has a much higher vpip than the typical 2+2er.

very good point.
also, two 2+2ers say that they have 75k + hands on him and these aren't likely ALL the exact sames hands in both databases. if the overlap is 75% then he is winning his "streak" is more like 100k + hands.

If he were colluding with one or two others, wouldn't there be one or two others whose stats also stick out like a sore thumb in that game?

Not if you were smart about it!
Or maybe the most likely scenario he has hacked into a few players computers and can see their hole cards and he doesn't extract extra bets when he is in a hand with them to go undetected but does improve his position tons when they do not have a hand.
All I am saying is his stats and winrate are what I would expect if I could see 1 or 2 hands that act after me in a tight game!
Improving my position every round by a notch would be huge!

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe even more hands