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Old 05-03-2005, 02:34 AM   #26
mmcd
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Re: DERB

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I think you'll find that he extracts a lot postflop when he is ahead or sucks out and loses if not minimum then far less when he is behind and doesn't suck out . Also look for his winrate when raising the turn! I'm pretty sure it'll be something like 70%.

FYP
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:35 AM   #27
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Re: DERB

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I think you'll find that he extracts a lot postflop when he is ahead and looses if not minimum then far less when he is behind. Also look for his winrate when raising the turn! I'm pretty sure it'll be something like 70%.
Are you kidding me? Dude will raise and three-bet the turn with middle pair. Probably the lightest three-betting regular in the game. But as I've said many times about this player, I'm sure he makes a lot of money against people who are unable or unwilling to properly adjust to him.
-James
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:37 AM   #28
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Re: DERB

Mathematical anomaly more than likely. I'm on a downswing that would make most players puke. Cannot win, and I play very tight/solid poker. Just as a strong player can run atrociously bad for an extended period of time, a LAG/maniac can run exceptionally good for an extended period of time.

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Old 05-03-2005, 02:39 AM   #29
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Re: DERB

It's funny how these discussions always seem to turn into an ego thing. I don't know if it has occured to anybody that this guy might be good, but just using another strategy than the standard 2+2 TAG. I think we should await Cypher's analysis an see if we can learn something!
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:39 AM   #30
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Re: DERB

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Mathematical anomaly more than likely. I'm on a downswing that would make most players puke. Cannot win, and I play very tight/solid poker. Just as a strong player can run atrociously bad for an extended period of time, a LAG/maniac can run exceptionally good for an extended period of time.

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how many hands is your downswing?? i bet its like 1/10th of the time this guy has "run" this well.

-Barron
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:41 AM   #31
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Re: DERB

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It's funny how these discussions always seem to turn into an ego thing. I don't know if it has occured to anybody that this guy might be good, but just using another strategy than the standard 2+2 TAG. I think we should await Cypher's analysis an see if we can learn something!
why do you think i wanna do this...

if you would have asked me 1yr ago if a guy who plays 30% of his hands (or vol puts $ in pot) can win i'd say no...

but now maybe we can see wtf in gods name is going on b/c its not only happeneing, and he's not only winning, but he's the biggest winner period.

-Barron
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:49 AM   #32
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Re: DERB

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But as I've said many times about this player, I'm sure he makes a lot of money against people who are unable or unwilling to properly adjust to him.
This is likely very correct. An important sideeffect is that good players will often be forced out of the pot and leave him with the guys who are dumb enough to play back at him with little or nothing. There is probably a lot of iso raises behind this guy preventing others from entering the pot and when the raising wars start postflop you'll often have to let go of an otherwise decent draw. My point is that even if you win money from this guy when you are in a hand with him, he can still put a dent in your EV by keeping you out of pots that would have been profitable for you.
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:51 AM   #33
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Re: DERB

I'm sorry Cypher, I wasn't refering to you. My response was meant for mmcd and James.
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Old 05-03-2005, 02:58 AM   #34
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Re: DERB

Any results from the data yet?
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:06 AM   #35
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Re: DERB

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Any results from the data yet?
LOL bite me!!!!!!!!

when i wrote papers for the dept of labor it took me 4 months out of the 8 months to organize, correctly set up variables and constrcut models...

this is clearly easier and the data is fiarly easy to wade through once i get it into columns and the variables are constructed but i still need to put thought into the analysis...if i gave you something now you should question the efficacy of my methods.

-Barron
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:09 AM   #36
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Re: DERB

exploitative strategies, this Thread might be of interest. Particularly Granny and Angelinas (Izmet's) replies.
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:09 AM   #37
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Re: DERB

Seriously. Stop making it sound like those stats are tenable. Let me say it again 30 17 2.0

His turn raise win rate sucks for sure.
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:10 AM   #38
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Re: DERB

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Seriously. Stop making it sound like those stats are tenable. Let me say it again 30 17 2.0

His turn raise win rate sucks for sure.
Are you suggesting that he pulls the 3BB/100 out of his ass?
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:12 AM   #39
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Re: DERB

He can't win and thats a guarantee.
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:13 AM   #40
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Re: DERB

Absolutely. He is a horrible player. Probably running really well.

The real question is: are you suggesting he is actually good? He is so bad it's not even a question. Maybe you have not seen him play.
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:18 AM   #41
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Re: DERB

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Absolutely. He is a horrible player. Probably running really well.

The real question is: are you suggesting he is actually good? He is so bad it's not even a question. Maybe you have not seen him play.
No I haven't seen him play, so I can't really judge. All I can say is that I have run in to similar players (at least it sounds similar) that where consistant winners. And I'm not ready to write a statistically proven big winner over many hands off as a fluke, just because he dosn't subscribe to 2+2 dogma. I would rather see if there is anything to learn from him...

Read the thread I posted above. And if you don't know who Angelina is, ask David or Mason.
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Old 05-03-2005, 03:27 AM   #42
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Re: DERB

You're right, my downswing has not been nearly as long as this nutbars hot run. I'm not 100% sure of who you are talking about either so I can't really voice my opinions on his play. Is it impossible that he is just running sickly lucky? Using team play/hand sharing? Is he sucking off the CEO of partypoker to have his underdogs hold up more often? All I know is there are a LOT of players who seem to be doing very well for extended periods of time who have no right winning whatsoever. Sick game sometimes.

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Old 05-03-2005, 03:54 AM   #43
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Re: DERB

I was playing with Angelina when there were 2 games on Paradise. She's very tight and very aggressive. This player plays twice as many hands.

And these stats are filtered for 7+, not shorthanded.

I like your ideas in the dongbang thread. I know that story fairly well. I know a friend that has played with him live. I believe he busted in the stars 1-2 game though. Don't have enough experience to comment.

The mistake players including myself make is that they see players playing too many hands preflop and they assume they are raising turns light, when they may not be at all.
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Old 05-03-2005, 04:22 AM   #44
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Re: DERB

If you can't get Excel to do what you want, if you send me a sample of the data and what you are trying to do with it, I can write something up in Perl to convert it to comma separated or something like that.
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Old 05-03-2005, 04:33 AM   #45
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Re: DERB

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If you can't get Excel to do what you want, if you send me a sample of the data and what you are trying to do with it, I can write something up in Perl to convert it to comma separated or something like that.
awesome! PM me your email address

-Barron
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Old 05-03-2005, 05:16 AM   #46
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A DERB hand *DELETED*

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Old 05-03-2005, 05:18 AM   #47
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Re: A DERB hand

he river g00t.
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Old 05-03-2005, 05:31 AM   #48
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Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*

Why the delete?

- Jags
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Old 05-03-2005, 05:36 AM   #49
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AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.

I can't believe that people on 2+2 would basically accuse another player of cheating, just because they don't subscribe to all 2+2 theories as Rigoletto points out, and the player happens to win some money playing poker. There have been no hands posted to question his play (to show either collusion or playing with a bot), and no evidence of any type to indicate anything dishonest.

I'm not going to post on 2+2 anymore. I'm sure I will have occasion to see 2+2ers online and playing poker, and will communicate that way. I will still host my PP 15-30 prvt table for those who want to play and shoot the bull.

I've just had enough of certain posters and a general arrogant atmosphere on 2+2 that I can live without. Perhaps I am part of the cause, and for that I am sorry.

I wish you all the best, and thank you for all the good times, poker insight, and laughs.

TSP
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Old 05-03-2005, 05:48 AM   #50
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Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.

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I can't believe that people on 2+2 would basically accuse another player of cheating, just because they don't subscribe to all 2+2 theories as Rigoletto points out, and the player happens to win some money playing poker. There have been no hands posted to question his play (to show either collusion or playing with a bot), and no evidence of any type to indicate anything dishonest.

I'm not going to post on 2+2 anymore. I'm sure I will have occasion to see 2+2ers online and playing poker, and will communicate that way. I will still host my PP 15-30 prvt table for those who want to play and shoot the bull.

I've just had enough of certain posters and a general arrogant atmosphere on 2+2 that I can live without. Perhaps I am part of the cause, and for that I am sorry.

I wish you all the best, and thank you for all the good times, poker insight, and laughs.

TSP
dude, nobody is saying for sure he's cheating.

the only reason i want to analyze the play is to see if we can actually learn from this guy. makes sense when somebody single handedly shatters your comfy little reality by playing 2x the # of hands you play and winning more/100 hands.

however, it also makes sense that since it (may turn out to be) so unlikely that there may be another explanation...it may be cheating...but thats not the same as somebody saying, "he's cheating, thats it."

im curious to learn how he does so damn well over so many hands.
-Barron
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