05-11-2005 , 04:52 AM
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They aren't ignoring the hard numbers. The numbers tell you that there is a 95% chance that he is a winner. Lots of people play the 30/60, he seems to be a lottery winner, that 5% one. Even if you put his stats into 99% or 99.99% confidence intervals the argument is still valid.
Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely.

When you start asserting that he's a lottery winner, the question then becomes:

"How do we know that James isn't the lottery winner?"

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
Because James can look in his database and see himself outplaying this guy hand after hand?

Because James' stats are generally in alignment with the vast majority of winning poker players?

Because James has undoubtedly maintained his success far longer than 100k hands?

Shall I continue?
If you like. Of course, the only difference is how big the lottery is. Maybe James is the one in a billion (or trilion, etc...) luck bucket?

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
05-11-2005 , 04:55 AM
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Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely.
Could you expand on this? I would like to learn.
05-11-2005 , 05:00 AM
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They aren't ignoring the hard numbers. The numbers tell you that there is a 95% chance that he is a winner. Lots of people play the 30/60, he seems to be a lottery winner, that 5% one. Even if you put his stats into 99% or 99.99% confidence intervals the argument is still valid.
Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely.

When you start asserting that he's a lottery winner, the question then becomes:

"How do we know that James isn't the lottery winner?"

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
Because James can look in his database and see himself outplaying this guy hand after hand?

Because James' stats are generally in alignment with the vast majority of winning poker players?

Because James has undoubtedly maintained his success far longer than 100k hands?

Shall I continue?
If you like. Of course, the only difference is how big the lottery is. Maybe James is the one in a billion (or trilion, etc...) luck bucket?

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
Lets add to James hand total the hand totals of 10 or 20 other top notch 2+2ers who share similar stats and winrates. Average of say 500,000 hands apiece, will give us 5 million hands.

I think you are going to need to come up with a number bigger than trillion.
05-11-2005 , 05:02 AM
Can we get his real SD/100. All the calculations in this thread have been based on estimates and assumptions for it.
05-11-2005 , 05:06 AM
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Math is hard. The numbers don't say there's a 95% chance he's a winner. They say something else entirely.
Could you expand on this? I would like to learn.
There are essentially two numbers to consider, the win rate and variance. Of course, JV hasn't actually supplied the variance, so even the basic results are a bit tenuous. UprightCreature posted some very basic numbers which say that getting DERB's results over that stretch for a break even player is maybe a one in a million event.

Now consider the fact that DERB is not alone in these achievements. We aren't talking about some guy that just got lucky.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
05-11-2005 , 05:09 AM
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Maybe James is the one in a billion (or trilion, etc...) luck bucket?

Lets add to James hand total the hand totals of 10 or 20 other top notch 2+2ers who share similar stats and winrates. Average of say 500,000 hands apiece, will give us 5 million hands.

I think you are going to need to come up with a number bigger than trillion.
Please note the well placed "etc" in my post.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
05-11-2005 , 05:22 AM
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Now consider the fact that DERB is not alone in these achievements. We aren't talking about some guy that just got lucky.
Usually before one considers a certain fact they are presented with some sort of evidence that what they are being told is indeed a fact and not some worthless BS being spouted by some clown on an internet forum.
05-11-2005 , 05:26 AM
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Now consider the fact that DERB is not alone in these achievements. We aren't talking about some guy that just got lucky.
Usually before one considers a certain fact they are presented with some sort of evidence that what they are being told is indeed a fact and not some worthless BS being spouted by some clown on an internet forum.
At last we agree! That's been my point all along. Of course, the difficult part here is determining exactly which BS is worthless, and which isn't.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com
05-11-2005 , 08:58 AM
Fair enough. Finally a post that makes a sense.
05-11-2005 , 09:59 AM
I want to watch this guy play and "work his magic". What's his PP screename???
05-11-2005 , 10:07 AM
Please don't do this. Prock, you are trying to get these guys all worked up.
05-11-2005 , 10:08 AM
I am going to take a shot in the dark here. I think it is........... DERB !!!!!!!!!
05-11-2005 , 10:22 AM
99.99% confidence;

SD/100 Lower Bound Upper Bound
20 0.04 5.14
21 -0.09 5.26
22 -0.22 5.39
23 -0.34 5.52
24 -0.47 5.65
25 -0.6 5.77

I think with his numbers the lotto argument is very valid, even if you tweak his SD and confidence a few points either way.
05-11-2005 , 10:24 AM
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I am going to take a shot in the dark here. I think it is........... DERB !!!!!!!!!
05-11-2005 , 03:03 PM
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Even considering how high his BB/100 is?

I just learned about confidence intervals in a class. I should be able to figure this out. Im gonna try anyways.

edit-ok nm its already been done, i think this is what you are talking about anyways.

Confidence intervals don't correctly predict the likelihood of this player being a winner, since this player was chosen because of the abnormality of his winrate.
05-11-2005 , 03:49 PM
05-11-2005 , 03:56 PM
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Confidence intervals don't correctly predict the likelihood of this player being a winner, since this player was chosen because of the abnormality of his winrate.
Finally, someone who gets it.
05-11-2005 , 04:17 PM
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PS - calling Andrew stupid is silly, he clearly is not and makes your position look weak.
Hmm, you must have missed this thread... DERB
I offer no opinion on DERB, the arguments being presented on whether DERB is a lottery winner or a quirky but winning player, or the persons involved in the discussion.

I only offer the opinion that this is the best post on 2+2 in quite some time.
05-11-2005 , 04:19 PM
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And what you don't understand is that I'm saying I understand how unlikely it is, according to the math, that he is not actually playing a winning style. That is the whole point of the discussion.
James I'm still surprised you don't believe there some form of cheating here with DERB's style.

Lawrence
05-11-2005 , 04:46 PM
Um, his party SN isn't DERB. I know this for two reasons.

1. If it was DERB, everyone in this forum wouldn't be all secretive about who this person was. I mean look at what they say.."Are we talking about the same player?? I've seen him too! Blah blah blah". If his name was DERB, they'd just say "Yeah, I see DERB win all the time"

2. I tried adding DERB to my buddylist on PP and the ID doesn't exist.

I win.

What's his PP sn?
05-11-2005 , 05:08 PM
You can't kill it indeed.

Is it just possible his approach could be a winning one?
05-11-2005 , 05:23 PM
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Um, his party SN isn't DERB. I know this for two reasons.

1. If it was DERB, everyone in this forum wouldn't be all secretive about who this person was. I mean look at what they say.."Are we talking about the same player?? I've seen him too! Blah blah blah". If his name was DERB, they'd just say "Yeah, I see DERB win all the time"

2. I tried adding DERB to my buddylist on PP and the ID doesn't exist.

I win.

What's his PP sn?
It's great you went through all that deductive reasoning, but maybe you should have read the original post in the thread where he says DERB stands for "don't ever run bad."
05-11-2005 , 05:48 PM
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Even considering how high his BB/100 is?

I just learned about confidence intervals in a class. I should be able to figure this out. Im gonna try anyways.

edit-ok nm its already been done, i think this is what you are talking about anyways.

Confidence intervals don't correctly predict the likelihood of this player being a winner, since this player was chosen because of the abnormality of his winrate.
We are not talking confidence interval between a population of players, but confidence interval for a 100K sample of hands where each member is 100 hands!!!!!!!!!!!!
05-11-2005 , 05:51 PM
I was at a 30/60 table this morning and 3 people were joking about DERB (hittting 4 of a kind?) at another table.
05-11-2005 , 05:53 PM
Thanks for telling me what DERB stands for. I'm still asking for his PP screename.

m