Quote:
Originally Posted by daisytom
So lets break this down...
Preflop you can generally make it a little bigger to discourage frequent BB defense. This will likely depend whom is in BB. So your standard 2x to 2.6x is alright.
Flop, we have to figure what villain defends and donk leads with... he prob defends all Ax Kx Q8-KQ, 22-66, some SCs (but this is player dependant). After assigning a range we have to figure what hands donk lead and if we find that favorable. He probably is NOT donk leading AdXx, KdXx, medium flushes... so maybe he has a small diamond blocker or Ax Kx (weak kickers, no diamond).
You start hand with 31bbs, you have 29bbs on flop and position. If you define ranges and are willing to fold when you're beat, then I would take a different line because you're taking the top of your range and turning it into a flip (higher variance). When you jam you're only going to get called by made flush, big flush draw, and sometimes sets.
You have position, so I like two other options as well... call and evaluate turn (often having villain betting their worse hand into you on turns), or raising small enough to build a pot vs all their draws... then make decisions on turn.
Shoving flop nets you +3bbs if not called. If called you risk the effective stack.
If you call and fold turn, you lose -3bbs. You call, and the continue on missed turns, you gain ~ +6bbs
If you raise flop and they shove (you fold) you lose ~ -5bb. If you raise flop and they call (miss flop), you gain ~ +8bb (if they get stubborn or do something stupid here like bluff you gain much more as you probably shouldnt be committing 1/3 of stack and folding if you did your initial assessment correctly.)
Im on my cell phone and these figures are approximately. The jam is good if villain is a whale that will call off KxTd. If not, I prefer taking it to the streets.
