I recently completed this sponsored examination of bunching effect with aces by writing custom Python code, i.e. if it is limped to you on the button how much more likely are the blinds to have an ace than usual (due to card removal effect), if anyone would have limped with any ace? The effects were surprisingly strong, someone could hardly believe it, writing "I'm afraid these numbers sound completely wrong." Well, it's an audited simulation so that is what the results show. Among the most interesting results:

• If we have KK in such a situation where it is folded to us on the button but anyone would have limped any ace, then one of the blinds will have an ace 37.148% of the time rather than 29.129% of the time as per usual.
• When we have AA ourselves, we are also more likely to make a set by the river under such conditions: usually it is 19.110% of the time but under such conditions it is 24.938% of the time
• the same holds true for any ace. When we hold Ax on the button on such conditions, we will see an ace by the river 34.846% of the time rather than 27.346% of the time as per normal.

These were interesting and very strong results that can help us make better decisions at high VPIP loose tables where players limp any Ace.

I would be interested in expanding the simulation to look at the opposite case. Instead of everyone folding, I'd like to examine the case where several players have a pocket pair, and whether that makes it more likely for players left to act to have a pocket pair as well, and if so, how strong the effect is.

I have heard rumors of such an effect, but I am not sure how strong it is. The reason for the effect is that once someone has a pocket pair, there are only 2 of that suit left, making it more likely that another player will have two cards from one of the suits without the removal; they are slightly more likely to have cards from the suits that didn't have a pocket pair than from the suits that did and by extension, for each player that has a pocket pair, the players left to act are more likely to have a pocket pair themselves.

Is this a strong effect? Can it be strong enough to affect our decision-making in these situations? Using a version of the simulation I already developed, I would like to do an exhaustive simulation in order to see the strength of this effect if indeed it exists.

I will set up the simulation as I see fit and post the results. By sponsoring me in any amount ($5-$20) you can have help advance poker research as well as potentially gain valuable information about the players still left to act.

Please let me know if you are interested in being a small sponsor for this area of research.

https://www.holdemresources.net/blog...ching-effects/

just throwing a great post of this effect into this thread, in case you havn't read it yet

Thanks for the link, I read it! Did you see any articles about the "pocket pairs" effect which I'd like to investigate (each pocket pair makes it more likely for other players to have a pocket pair)? I am not sure how strong the effect is, I have only heard of it anecdotally, but I certainly have seen a lot of hands with three or four players all with a pocket pair! It is what I would like to explore with my next simulation if I can get a sponsor.