Aim

Hey guys, I'm aiming to reach Supernova Elite by 28th November next month. I should have posted this earlier as the real goal started from August 15th, when I had ~130K VPPs...

Since then it's been a heavy grind and a rollercoaster, and there's still a long way to go. I'm currently sitting on ~689K VPPs so have a month and a bit to make the other 311k. My pace this month has been good with 203K VPPs so far, but the variance has been enormous and it's a real balancing act between maximizing VPPs and avoiding terminal variance.

How

From here on in I'm going to have to keep the pace really intense, and that will inevitably mean more high variance approaches. The grind has consisted pretty much every SNG from HU all the way up to a couple 180 mans, but the bulk has focused on 6-max, 9-man, 10-man and 18-man. I really do want to try and incorporate some element of variance busting, as I do not have an unlimited bankroll and don't want to have added stress on top of the huge workload! For example, I coach and stake two guys for SNE as well, so i have to be even more responsible with my own BRM to ensure they will always have ample for their pursuits. I think the quickest way a goal will be destroyed is by neglecting worst-case outcomes, two spring to mind:

1) Assuming you will be able to make "x" pace everyday from the start til the end - instead I think you need to create a buffer % always.

2) Assuming you will make "x" profit overall with an average profit of "x" per game. Especially for SNE grinds, most of the profit comes from rakeback, and a huge chunk of that comes in the form of the final $20k bonus and WCOOP ME ticket, so without thinking about the non-linear payout of the rewards, you could actually go bust by accident if worst does come to worst.

In terms of this chase, that means if I need 8xxx VPPs/day, I'm gonna make myself certain I need 9k/day. If I can make more on any particular day, it's important to maximize that chance. If I think on a certain grind plan I can run $3-6k below EV in a day, I'm going to play a certain amount of lower-variance games (e.g. high volume lower buy-in) to compensate. Problem is, the more variance busting, the less VPPs and visa-versa. It's a real pain in the ass!

Why

I graduated from college midway through the year which had made Supernova Elite difficult for the last couple years. I wasn't even planning on going for it since it seemed nearly impossible, but after having an awesome time at UKIPT Edinburgh and chatting to some guys about it, I decided it HAD to be done. For me personally the biggest reward comes next year with the SNE incentives in terms of FPP rate and discounts for live events etc. With that in mind, I'm not that upset if my profit after rakeback is way lower than it would have been had I not gone on a 40-60 tabling path to get there!

I'll update how things are going pretty often and answer questions. Thanks for looking!

Good luck dude, subscribed this thread.

Good luck sir

I have no doubt that you will manage it

Gl broski, are you still mixing in $30 hypers at beginning/end of seshes? I think that's what mcc2005 told me you were doing

Good luck, looks to be tough but I'm sure you can do it!

Thanks guys! Josh, yeah they're really hard games to mix, I was doing that sometimes but now I just bust a short heavy set of them when I feel like it, or sometimes to start the day when volume is bad elsewhere anyway. Adding them at start and finish was a neat way to add a few extra VPPs, but now that I have to reg a zillion times for different tourns in the lobby, simultaneously doing that and also judging when to stop registering for them it's probably too cumbersome at this point! GL for your challenge also man, looks like you're tearing it up

Do you have enough FPPs to get that Porsche? Can't wait to get mine, yeah baby!

Thanks for the answer, appreciate it. I can definitely see where it'll be super hard to mix in all those game types together, which is going to lead to my next (and I think final question). You're one of the few who successfully mix game types (from a STT point of view, aka different types of 6mans, 9 mans, Fifty50's, 18s+ as well) on PS right now, and I've also had success doing that on Merge...what would you suggest is the 2nd easiest and also most profitable game to mix in with hypers.

I'm asking because I'll need to have something to mix in with my non primetime sessions as the $30 hypers don't load quick enough at non peak times. I'll be mixing in MTT's as well, have always done that on Merge and plan to do the same on PS. I was thinking in terms of best game to add....
1. turbo 6m
2. turbo 18m
3. turbo 18m with 45s/180s added (im not sure i want to play 45s/180s at all even tho i am a former 180er)
4. turbo/non turbo 9m (whatever loads as it seems 9m volume is way down)
5. Fifty50 (never have played one before so not even sure this is a good idea at all but in terms of learning the game, is it super hard?)

Sorry for the questions , appreciate your answers though.

Thx and gl today!

screenname?

its a big ole secret

Haha I wish!! Maybe next year, they look unreal

Good question, and no worries enjoy answering them! I think it's a bit of a double-edged sword, you need other games to maintain volume, but because traffic is bad the best games won't fill. In my opinion 6-max is the hardest game to mix (apart from HUSNG normal speed lol), simply because of the greater amount of post-flop play and clicks required. So as a rule of thumb, the easiest games to mix will have the least postflop play. Also if they are games with less different stages and dynamic changes which you don't have to keep an eye on, that makes it easier too. So for that reason I find games such as HU, 6-max and 180 mans hard to mix, and games such as 50/50s and 18-mans far easier to mix. I think you can get enough action up to $60 level on either of those to top up your usual games at those times. 50/50s aren't particularly hard to learn as such, but involve awareness of what is happening all the time and can't just play mindlessly (your hypers will be a much more unconscious mindset involved).

Hope this helps!

Sorry forgot to make that clear. I play under the same name as my 2p2 name, ILS007.

Ran pretty great yesterday, one of the few times in the last 6 weeks but im grateful!! Made just over 8k VPPs so a touch under pace, but Mondays are always below pace after long Sunday grinds and worse traffic. Woke up early today accidentally set my alarm 30 mins too early so feel like poop, but on the plus side didn't accidentally wake up 3 hours late which often happens.

I realized I never mentioned why the 28th November, seems pretty random and exact. Reason is I'm flying off at the end of November to Dubai and then onwards for a month of travelling, it would probably be possible to make a few VPPs over that time if desperate, but kinda defeats the purpose of going away in the first place.

Thx for another detailed response, I guess I was thinking differently than you do, but I'm glad I asked because now I realize my way of thinking might have been silly. I was thinking of just mixing 6max in as then I wouldn't get confused on bubbles and I wouldn't have to learn ICM spots for different games, but I definitely agree that adding games that have less postflop play will most likely be beneficial.

I might have to play/study fifty50's quite a bit during November and December of 2011, and then possibly make them my secondary game, if not, I can probably just add 18s and be fine.

Thanks again for the answer . Gl today

Got completely butchered today, but made just shy of 10K VPPs which is pretty much the aim. Expecting Thursdays and Saturdays to be problematic for pace since one is a coaching evening and the other is also a half-day. Assuming that Monday also tends to be pretty bad for volume, hitting my average VPP/day goal on the other days of the week is actually the bare minimum and not necessarily great. On the other hand, towards the end of the chase if there's a bit extra pace to be made, I'm sure 6th gear can be found to finish off the job. Cashed the 700K VPP milestone to ease the pain! Anyways, no pain no gain so I guess I'm gaining a ton haha

This made me lol, variance is absolutely symmetrical I promise!! Quite freaky how similar they are in opposing directions:

Monday




Tuesday




Predictions on Wednesday?

Supposed to be two images there no idea why they aren't showing

Did you use imageshack to post them? If so, just take the direct link, then hit the yellow "insert image" icon here on 2p2 and then paste the link in and it'll show up.

Gl today if you're grinding!

+2972

Goodluck.

GL Mate hope you get there so you can have a real holiday!

I don't mean any disrespect when I say this because you're clearly a better than I am, but is it worth losing all the profit you have made currently?

The reason I ask and only because I looked at your SS graph and you are on a huuuuuge downswing (maybe too many tables though?) but over the course of the last 10k games you have lost half your profits from 80k down to 40k..still very impressive profit by the way and I'm not trying to sound a dick when I say it but by the time you reach SNE (I'm sure you will by the looks of it) will the monies from SNE outweigh the the losses you are incurring at the tables?

Do you think this is just a downswing or is it because you're playing to many tables? It just seems quite a sharp dip yet previously you had a nice steady upward graph.

Good luck either way mate...I just wonder sometimes if it is worth it when people lose a ton at the tables.

Thx for the tip, using Flickr just double checked the direct link for them and gave that a shot, still didn't seem to work so tryin with imageshack now. Tyty

Would be nice! Ty

Haha thanks, real holiday is the word, and I'm talking about a one-year holiday Tbh after doing SNE like this every future year is probably gonna feel like vacation anyway, even including SNE chasing at one year pace.

Hey mate, no offense taken it's actually a really good question. I'm sure a ton of people have sharkscoped me/other heavy grinders and gone damn, what on earth is he doing he's losing all his moneys!!

I guess the first main thing is that after rakeback profit is still quite reasonable, I haven't checked for a little while but probably somewhere in the $35k ballpark for the grinding I've done from mid-August to now. I had a period of 8 days in September with no main internet so it's equivalent to around 2 months of grinding in total, albeit insane grinding. I would have hoped for around double this amount of profit, but that brings me on to the next point...

Initially I ran on a complete heater, made ~$30k in the first two weeks. My EV was WAY below that, but ever since those two weeks I've ran enormously under EV, to a point where I'm now hugely below expectation. I think the images I've posted from my last two days are the perfect metaphor for what to accept as an SNG grinder. A couple of other variances have dented my profit: bricking 3 Step 6s (played terribly on two of them but still shocked I scored $0 them them!!), and bricking/FT bubbling a number of $109 small MTT turbos and all of WCOOP. The one MTT I scored in was the Weekly $215 HU but overall lost a fair chunk on all of that. Also, when I was grinding quite hard on the high stakes SNGs, I won quite a sizeable amount through battle of the planets which is a nice extra when you get it.

So overall I would figure the value of this type of grinding perhaps in the ballpark of $30k/month, but it will be completely erratic as to how much is made on any one month. Also your point about number of tables is completely true, that's dented my expectation considerably. As I mentioned in my OP, the value of SNE isn't only the pretty big $100-130k rewards in the year it is achieved, but the future value of SNE for the following year. I figure next year my effective rakeback could be 75-80%, between the highest FPP earnings rate, up to 25% SNE discount on live event packages, and a few other benefits that come with it. I'll be able to coast to SNE next year hopefully, with the luxury of game selection, focused number of tables, and time off, all of which will help ensure I don't sacrifice so much pre-rb profit to get to SNE.

One key reason why I was really motivated to put in the hard graft now is because it could make next year awesome, and offer a great foundation for the years after that. If one imagines this like a job which pays a flat hourly rate, but where you don't actually get the money until "x" period of time (equivalent to hitting 1Mil VPPs), then it's clear that working really hard over this short space of time should win me free time for next year. My goal is to be able to do lots of travelling next year with my better half, see some great places, experience some awesome things and pursue more things that appeal to the two of us. I see this as a bit of a sacrifice to open up the opportunity for that. There's not many jobs where you can continue working just by keeping a laptop in your rucksack.

Last but maybe most important of all, this is a fantastic training for my life overall, particularly professional life. If I can dedicate 8-12 hours everyday for a period of 3 months to reach this goal, I'll truly know that I can achieve almost any other goal requiring hard work, planning, organization and a level head. Even for SNE next year, this now will make that feel really easy. I believe that anything that can push your boundaries (without being too nuts) builds your character as an individual, and you are the biggest asset you possess. My biggest current ambition in poker is to apply for Team Pokerstars Online, and doing something in an unorthodox and difficult way should enhance my exposure and increase the possibility of making that a reality. Sucking up to as many people as possible should help too

On a less TL;DR sidenote, I think imagining negative variance as something which wins you "character points" is a really useful outlook to use. The one thing that pushes me to the real limit will always be variance, everything else such as using my head to think, using my finger to click, those aren't really pushing me much. So the one thing that is guaranteed to push my development the most, is my enemy - variance. If I embrace my enemy he'll be my biggest resource.

Hope this helps!

gl sir!

i miss everyone's accents

i might not miss getting up at 6:30 on tuesdays though.

haha sure he won't be the only one!

Got completely butchered again today. 1/4 million chips below EV in last 5 days, pretty much as bad as it can get, and that includes a ~+$6500 day w/rb in that 5-day period!! Pretty mind boggling stuff especially with the amount of volume I'm putting in, gotta just keep at it. Made nearly 9.6k vpps today tho so pace is solid.