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Old 01-07-2020, 10:04 PM   #426
YugiohPro
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

I'm quite fluey at the moment (wash your hands boys and girls!) so I'm trying to finish up these articles so I can move on to 2020. Hopefully will bang these out within the next few days although I already feel my medication kicking in and getting drowsy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by belthazorrrrr View Post
Do you know why stars still have 9 handed boredom and not everything 8 handed or less? Do you think there is a chance they will change this? Why there is no 215$ bounty builder on peak hours? Why there are not more turbo bounty builders?
The 9-max to 8-max change is more to a lack of time. And I've never been sold that 8-max makes that much more of a difference. But I'm predisposed to hate on 8-max on Stars because I hate how it looks compared to other sites.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3 View Post
very good write ups.

In my opinion though Stars doesn't care much about having large daily guarantees across their vanilla non series MTTs. They are tailoring their product towards attracting deposits but also leading the herd to their higher raked lower edge games(spins,etc) or no edge games(casino, etc). They run more frequent series, special Sunday Events, etc to draw in these deposits and appeal to their recreational crowd but overall they have very little interest in having a grand schedule of large daily guarantees.

The reason seems obvious as they do not tailor their model at all towards a winning player and by having a schedule that would incorporate more of these events on a daily basis they would also be attracting alot more winning regulars to their site. These events are some of the last standing highest ROI per game left for a stronger winning regular on their network and while they also return a higher profit on these games by raising the guarantees, so do the winning regulars.

Stars doesn't want in my opinion to have games in which winning regulars can also have a large ROI but is forced to keep these games to keep up with the industry and draw in the deposits. During the week though when much fewer recreational players are playing and have much less free time in their daily schedule Stars is fine in limiting their offerings and appeal to their lower edge, higher raked, faster formats.
Thanks for your thoughtful posts in this thread and others.

You know for a while there I was wondering if they were deliberately punting on their MTT schedule. But after giving it some thought I refuse to believe that's the case. It's much more likely that they're just out of time and don't have time to give it the attention it deserves. Why do I think this? I'll elaborate when I continue my writings but I think the key is that Luke originally made this schedule with the best of efforts/intentions. It's suboptimal now because of the passage of time and industry changes.

There are a number of rebuttals to your theory as well:

1) Poker companies don't think in terms of ROI/game attainable for players. Sure it can be in the back of their minds when they're making price increases but I've never seen that metric referenced and it seems spiteful.
2) Also this "they would be attracting alot more winning regulars to their site." Every winning regular already plays on Stars. Stars is synonymous with online poker. It's not like there's 10,000 regulars right now boycotting Stars who would show up if the Big $22 doubled in prize pool.
3) MTT players tend to just like playing MTTs. It's not like withered guarantees are just going to make MTT players move to spins and zoom. Maybe a small percentage.
4) They aren't doing a very noticeable job of cross-selling sports betting and casino. Most of this is probably just due to PIO's noble refusal to move their players in these -ev directions.
5) While big series like WCOOP do see increased deposits and rec participation, I'd guess they've hit diminishing returns by this point due to how often they are running series. And outside of the big ones, the garden variety KO Series/High Rollers/etc probably don't move the needle that much with deposits
6) They were adding money to High Roller satellites which are very non-rec friendly. I think high stakes market share is still a big deal for them. And if they had more time they would want to rake more from regulars
7) Series tournaments would actually be a very roundabout way of achieving these goals because series tournaments have the biggest prize pools so people who win these tournaments are the most likely to cash out

Having said that I do think your post is quite good and there have been many times over the past years where I did secretly wonder if there was a conspiracy at the top to just punt MTTs due to how much more rake per dollar Zoom and Spins generate.
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Old 01-14-2020, 07:52 AM   #427
YugiohPro
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

For PokerStars: Constructive Changes I’d like to See in 2020 or the Future Continued

With Winter Series closing I think it's a pretty good time to write this post. I haven't seen the overlay data but just from my light perspective I think the team did another great job with Winter Series and the .ES Winter Series was smashing as well.

I'm going to try to keep this post a bit shorter (lol) but let's continue with some changes I'd like to see from Stars that will help them and us. I decided to add the chances of these changing and focus on the ones that are actually possible to change.

1. Revisit the Overlay policy (discussed previously and very unlikely)

2. Payouts (very unlikely)

Just going to write quickly about this one because it's the very top brass that sets the pay table policies and all of the financial stuff so we don't really have an ability to influence here.

Here are my problems with the payout policy:

1) They objectively impair game quality for everyone but the winner

The payouts are rigged to make a higher first price which is assumed to be more attractive to participants (I agree with this). The rigging makes the payouts structurally unsound due to the artificial boost to 1st. This is a bit oversimplified but it makes it so everyone but the winner and the mincashers make less. There are no "winning moments" outside of this.

2) The potential ruinous effects from this impaired game quality aren't easy to track

If you take a dump in a nearby lake every day, you won't notice the difference in water quality. Maybe 2 years down the road you will realize the water is brown and poop infested.

At Stars, it's very difficult to get year on year comparisons since markets are always shifting and real world events like the World Cup are coming along. So if you make unpopular changes, it's almost fair to say that you'll never actually know the ramifications of them.

3) The gains from this policy aren't easy to track

This part is going to go too deep in to my NDA so I'll keep it light. But let's just quote cnuey and say operators are more interested in steering players to games like Zoom because they get to keep more of the rake. The problem with MTTS for operators is people just bink the big prize and then cash out instead of putting it into play. These modified payouts (which I wasn't involved with) would ostensibly lead to more cash spread out leading to less of these hits. But then rigging first to pay similar to before basically defeats the purpose of that. So effectively you're making a shady change and then also being a coward about it by trying to create the appearance of a similar top prize but hurting almost every other participant to achieve this.

The end result is a murky policy with clear deleterious effects and uncertain gain.
************************************************** *******************

Ok let's move into ideas that are actually implementable by operations that can actually make a tangible difference in revenue. More revenue for Stars means less bad changes for the players.

3. The Main Schedule needs some Love (under our control and very fixable)

This is the area where Luke and I didn't see the most eye to eye and I have regrets about how I communicated things. In my quest to share what I think are objectively correct changes, I think I should have phrased my suggestions with more tact. It can look overly critical to Luke if I'm just blasting the schedule left and right. But for the record I think he did a very good job with the schedule when it first came out (one issue being too much 6-Max) with quite a few great innovations including tiered Early/Late editions. I think the problems with the schedule come from the passage of time and the changing of the market (to where every operator is throwing out their best birds every day and Party is a very strong #2).

Luke also has a very harmonious idea of the schedule with selective usage of tags including Red (for Big/Hot/BB), Blue (Majors), and such. He was hesitant to add more and diminish the value of what's already there. I don't necessarily agree with this and found a few spots where majors would be great, particular an Asian-themed major at peak Asian hours and such.

Interestingly enough, my idea for phase 2 of the main schedule changes has already been implemented separately by the team. I'm talking about the $33 Bounty Builder on Demands which have been a fantastic change for the schedule. My idea was always this:

A. General Plan of Action

1) Cut poor tournaments: If you can't outperform an on demand, you're out.

2) Move all of this volume to a consistent flow of on-demands: The $33 was a great start. I would want all of my bread and butter on-demands clearly visible in the main lobby at the top. Maybe a $33, a $7, a $16.50, and throw in a Hyper on Demand as well (more on that later).

3) Concentrate liquidity into tournaments with as large a prize pool as you can realistically sustain, even if they use re-entry. The interesting thing about tournament guarantees is they almost function linearly in the sense that $10k in additional guarantees from the Big $55 works the same for revenue (almost) as $10k from a $22. So a Big $55 100k can almost be viewed the same as 10 separate $11 10k's. Although the Big $55 has way more to one winner, which is bad, and less revenue because it's raked less than an $11. But you get what I mean.

4) Add a Hyper Major slot at :45 with big prize pools

Let's use a sample hour to see what this looks like and some of my notes. This is actually pretty similar to the process I sent feedback to Luke/MJ and others. If I leave a tournament out it's fine where it's at.



Big $2.20- Let's change this to $10k and start with unlimited re-entry for now. We're not losing much to try this out.
Big $55- Either $50k or $100k. $15k is just a joke for the largest poker site. I'll use re-entry here to create a safety net.
$530 Daily 500- I might make this a faster structure. This tournament has been terrible for its time slot but HRC tournaments generally belong in their own category. This one needs a rework for sure though maybe a lower buy-in. But definitely a bigger guarantee at least $50k and if can't sustain this then it just needs to go.

$5.50 Hyper- Useless filler
$22 3K- Useless filler

$16.50 HU Zoom TKO- Shoutout to James he kind of invented this format. I think this peak slot is the wrong time for this tournament and I'd rather move these to their own on demand tab or not run them at peak here.

$7.50 Time- It's fine but I'd move Time to their own tab and remove all of them from the main schedule. I have some respect for Time after looking at the data. I also think more can be done with the idea of Time.

Hot $109- Make this $50k or $100k. Use re-entry if needed.
Hot $3.30- Make this $10k. Again with re-entry.

$44 4K PKO- Trash
$4.40 1.5K- Trash

BB $7.50- $20k for a $7.50 is fine. Try $50k see what happens.
New BB with $100k gtd- Can be $82, $320, or whatever you want. I suggested this 50 times and used the first Bounty Builder Series schedule to show that appetite for a Bounty Builder is ravenous at this time slot. Here's the list of high stakes Bounty Builders and their placements:

BB 215 at 16:30 CET (too early and a waste of a premium tournament)
BB 530 at 18:30 (perfect)
BB 109 at 19:30 (perfect)
BB 162 at 02:30 (way too late and a waste of a premium tournament slot)

Peak hours are from 19:30 to 21:30 so you're just punting extremely hard by not including more high stakes Bounty Builders at these times. I would estimate this lack of change at the $7.50 BB slot has cost PokerStars easily hundreds of thousands in revenue. Possibly more.

$1.10 Cap- Trash
$215 Fat Tuesday- Don't like this one. Don't like how Tue/Thur only have the fats and at this random half hour mark. It's out and I'd rather add a different major somewhere.
$2.2 Hyper- Mostly trash but we'll talk about Hypers later
$55 Hyper- We'll talk about Hypers later
$11 Zoom- Absolute trash
$33 6M PKO Turbo- Fine-ish but we can do more here
$3.30 6M 1K- Absolute trash

So out of 22 tournaments I'm keeping 6, adding 1, and doing more with the :45 slot. And then I'm just super inflating their guarantees as an experiment and moving all of the fluff action to on demands of which there are plenty.

If the site can sustain larger guarantees than the pathetic current $15k's and $18k's, it will be making much more revenue from tournaments in the long run.

B. Looking at the Schedule Hour by Hour to find Revenue Sources

I ran this multiple times by Luke and didn't get much movement on it. If you look at total guarantees per hour, the schedule follows a pretty consistent flow where it spikes near peak and then gradually lowers. Some hour to hour changes are noticeably drastic though and it was in studying sections like this that I came up with a suggestion like making the Pacific Rim a daily tournament (which has pumped tournamament revenue in that hour by a large %).

Going down the schedule in this manner, you can see where the weak spots are and where more adjustments are needed. For example there is a 6 hr gap between the Late Editions and the Pacific Rims. And then a 5 hour gap between those and the Early Editions. And the Daily Pacific Rims weren't even around until we changed it so that would be an 11 hr gap! Add more tournaments where they're needed.

4. Let's Talk about Re-Entry (Changeable but controlled from the very top)

I really dislike Stars's policy about re-entry and in general I find Stars to be very demeaning/disrespectful of lower stakes compared to high stakes ($100+). You see this in the way that the predatory pay tables are only used for <$100 and the asinine re-entry policy is also only used for <$500's mostly.

In Winter Series it was very tilting to bust the $50-215's super quick, bust the $500-$1k's later, and then see that I'm freely allowed to re-enter the $1k's 2 more times but completely blocked off from re-entering the super juicy lower and midstakes ones. The fact is Stars is leaving a ton of tournament revenue on the table by not allowing re-entry in the lower games and increasing guarantees. There's one explanation that makes sense for this:

In the old days where Stars/Party were competing to keep series guarantees up year by year, it made sense to leave some pumps "in the tuck" so you could use them in the future to continue the appearance of momentum. This is similar to how companies aren't incentivized to always perform well because they need to save some for future earnings periods. It's yet another reason public companies have bullshit incentives though.

However now it looks like Party has pulled out of this competition and there's really no reason to hold yourself back from oodles and oodles of low to mid revenue any more. Policies on re-entry will change from person to person but it's pretty clear the world has changed now with companies like GG/WPN making huge prize pools with unlimited re-entry. Any "purity of the game" arguments for not allowing re-entry are completely thrown out the window when you're spamming 2 re-entries on every HS competition. It's like a slap in the face.

This inconsistent re-entry policy is costing Stars a lot of money while the getting is good. And it makes minimal sense to begin with due to the example set at High Stakes. Why not just stay consistent throughout? You're not winning some moral battle just because you're blocking everyone from re-entering multiple times in a $55. Just add re-entry and double the prize pool. Your earnings will thank you I promise.

Do it for the regular schedule as well. The world has spoken on re-entry. I don't like it either but it's just the reality of the world now. And if you want to stick to pure as snow no-rentry policies then put your money where your mouth is and do the same for the highest stakes. Stars has so many examples of this kind of cowardly double-move and it's because the company is a spineless public entity now. Be a man (or woman). Do the right thing.

5. HYPERS (Very Changeable pls Luke)

Last section. So I think all sites are leaving a lot of money on the table due to poor schedule flow planning but I think this bodes doubly true for PokerStars because PokerStars has the largest liquidity to sustain hypers. Also hypers are quite awkward on other sites but quite smooth/consistent on Stars and almost work as their own format with 6-Max and bigger antes.

Hypers have historically been very popular in all formats. The reason for this is pretty simple. Recs like to 1 table and they like faster games. They don't have time to sit for 13 hours all the time. And then grinders love hypers because hypers form the glue for both starting and closing sessions. There are so so so many times I'm finishing up a session and don't have the energy/attention to devote to more turbos that will take 2-3 hours. But hypers? Sign me up baby.

I think Hypers provide a tremendous amount of incremental revenue to PokerStars. Incremental revenue, or additional revenue from additional quantity, is the best kind of revenue because it simply adds to the pool. You can bet your sweet ass there are hundreds of players out there per day who don't want to invest in a normal or turbo but want to play a hyper, either at the start or end or even middle of sessions.

And because other sites are pretty bad at Hyper structures, Hypers are a great USP (unique selling proposition for Stars). Let's take a look at the schedule and see a possible change:



So after the Hot 109 at 21:15 CET we see a real lack of high stakes turbos that regulars might want to end their sessions with. We see this address with the $1,050 Daily Cooldown at 23:00 but again it's downright insulting how much respect Stars pays to high stakes players but none to mid or low. A 3-tiered $11/$109/$1,050 would be fantastic here as evidenced by the Cooldown on Sundays.

Triple Threat is fine but around here I see some problems as the EU market starts the end of peak and the gradual shutdown toward the Americas and other markets.

23:05/00:35: Unfocused $109 Hypers that have been doing pretty solid holding at ~$10k prize pool
23:10: $22 10K Turbo that has held at $10k consistently. This suggests people do want that gambling degen format to close their session
00:00: $530 Daily Supersonic. Again a tournament that should be tiered at $5.50/$55 and disrespectful to non-HS customers. Very successful tournament
00:15: $215 Hot. Very meh guarantee

End-EU peak tournaments:

$16.50 Hyper/$22 Hyper/$16.50 PKO Hyper/$44 Hyper: These have all been pretty successful tournaments despite running 2 per hour with no branding and being unfocused
01:45 $82 6-Max Turbo PKO: Again, a very successful tournament. And a bit of a degen format

So all of this, along with my existing knowledge, suggests to me that Stars would hit way more revenue if they focused their hyper offering. I'm talking about:

1) Remove every existing hyper from the schedule. Every one.
2) Add a :45 Hyper Major every hour with much bigger guarantees than existing Hypers. Use re-entry if needed
3) Add on demand hypers at certain buy-in levels ($2, $11, etc) to cover the gaps
4) Add even faster hypers (10bb push or fold I was experimenting with) at the very end of peak EU and other time zones. Use lower pricing on these

And suddenly you can see instead of two $109 Hypers with 8k-10k, maybe you can sustain a $109 with 25k. Maybe you can even sustain a $109 with 50k if you have some courage and put the investment down in the community. Instead of $16.50/$22/$16.50/$44 with a total of 19.5K in guarantees, you could easily do $20k on the $22 alone and then another $20k on the $16.50 PKO and suddenly make double the revenue, I suspect a large part of that incremental.

TLDR:

1. Remove a lot to concentrate liquidity and reduce clutter
2. Add on demands to fill the gaps
3. Buff prize pools significantly
4. Re-think re-entry
5. Optimize and maximize Hypers
6. Satellites

I forgot to talk about #6 but it's way too long and that would take too long. I would remove a ton of satellites though and possibly switch to a generic satellite model that awards way more seats. But all of the other sites doing this seem to be getting hosed.

I think these changes would add a lot of tournament revenue to PokerStars leading to a brighter future for us all. This is way too long so I'm just going to shut down here but I would love to hear your comments and suggestions on this.
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Old 01-14-2020, 08:35 AM   #428
Bosse_Arrav
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

great post! I agree on most of the topics. They should push the guarantees.
For micro and lowstake players its difficult to get the grind going in the mornings...

SNG's don't run that often, so it is not easy to have 9+ tables active in the morning.
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Old 01-14-2020, 08:22 PM   #429
cneuy3
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by YugiohPro View Post
The problem with MTTS for operators is people just bink the big prize and then cash out instead of putting it into play. These modified payouts (which I wasn't involved with) would ostensibly lead to more cash spread out leading to less of these hits. But then rigging first to pay similar to before basically defeats the purpose of that. So effectively you're making a shady change and then also being a coward about it by trying to create the appearance of a similar top prize but hurting almost every other participant to achieve this.
PokerStar's solved this problem with these payout structures. If they just spread the cash out more the non depositing winning players would still realize their expectation much easier than the current structures and be cashing out on a more frequent basis. This structure as you said hurts everyone aside from the min cashers and the person getting 1st.

It's not a problem for them to pay out 1st disproportionately high because recreational(depositing) players rarely get 1st place in a tournament and winning players have just had their variance increased a ton by the introduction of this structure. So while it may appear they are just dangling the carrot in front of less observant players I think there is even more to it than that in this case.

You make alot of other good points that I might come back and comment on. I think STars really does have a good understanding of the online landscape though and what they are trying to achieve with it. Whether it's good long term or not is another question and in alot of cases I think the answer is clearly "No", at least in some particular formats, but it's their plan of action.
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Old 01-15-2020, 02:56 AM   #430
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

just to add a little bit more....

Quote:
Originally Posted by YugiohPro View Post
I really dislike Stars's policy about re-entry and in general I find Stars to be very demeaning/disrespectful of lower stakes compared to high stakes ($100+). You see this in the way that the predatory pay tables are only used for <$100 and the asinine re-entry policy is also only used for <$500's mostly.
I think they are trying to dissuade stronger winning players from entering these lower to mid stake games to protect in a way their low $ depositors which make up a large % of the overall deposits. They are attempting to give these players a better shot or playing experience if they choose to play MTTs.

They would rather the grinders move up stakes or just leave altogether. Low to mid stakes are filled with grinders and stable players, etc.

As for higher stakes, they do not protect their recreationals as much because these players have the option to play their lower to mid stake games online. They are choosing to play the higher staked games. The low $ depositors do not have a choice.

Really like you ideas on improving the schedule and especially the stuff about experimenting with more on demands replacing withered tournaments, added hypers, timed tournaments, and even some faster structures. Problem is Stars will probably rake them too high but I like an idea of playing some sort of timed tournament where at the end up of a certain time period stacks are maybe forced all in, in some way, until you have a final table and it plays out from there. I don't like the idea of having it be everyone all in as I think that would lead to a ton of variance for all. maybe better minds could come up with a format in MTTs similar to Spin and Go MAX that adds a bit of variance and fun to the equation and cuts down on overall time which I think alot of recreational player's might enjoy. The key point mainly being that it gives them more "winning moments" which they get much less often in the current environment outside of winning some KO's in PKO's.
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Old 01-15-2020, 09:07 AM   #431
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

yes. but casino
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Old 01-15-2020, 02:38 PM   #432
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

A New Period

Winter Series ended anti-climatically. After going to my grandma's house I came back from the train station and caught one of the worst flus of my life. I'm still recovering but not at full energy. Was basically unable to play the last week. Gutted it out for a final Sunday, made some runs including cashing the $530 Main Event but ran out of energy near the end and played a bit poorly.

I've restructured my deal with my backer/coach and he's going to keep my action in $100+ events for this upcoming year.

*furious checks to confirm series are done*

With the series stuff mostly done it's time to get back on that meat and potatos/bread-and-butter grind. These are the fine margins where the winning years are made so I'm happy to leave the world of $500-$1K shot taking and try to get some value before the next series is released.

Epiphany 1: Endgames matter

I had a recent epiphany. It's dumb as fk for me to just now realize this after so long in the game but better late than never. I've realized that I don't put enough focus into end games. I'm always trying to load another hyper or $33 on-demand at the end of sessions to pad the hourly. So I'll be 18 left or 27 left in some withered $55 5k or $55 8k and not realize that if you're 18 left playing for a $5k prize pool that's like $277+ in equity which is 9x+ the worth of a new $33 on-demand.

So going forward when I'm in these types of situations I'm going to stop loading all but the highest stakes and PKO type stuff. Save those registrations for later and really try to laser in to close. These players in these endgames are hitting me with their best shots and I'm mostly just auto piloting.

I'm going to track my finish distributions and FT performances over the next weeks and see how it goes. I think my distributions were quite solid in 2019 but I want to even try targetting like an average finish place of 3.00 as opposed to high 3's/4/or even 5.
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Old 01-15-2020, 10:35 PM   #433
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Day 1 of Pure Heart Grind

evbb: 2.33
bb/100: 7.87

EV was in the tank for most of the day today but I ended up coming back a bit. Finish distributions were less than ideal. Got a 7th, an 8th, and finished 2nd in the Big $55. It's pretty positive to have a somewhat meh session, bust all the HS stuff mostly, and still grab a profit. Very encouraging stuff.

Also managed a 10th in the $530 Sonic (missed the 10th-9th jump despite taking my sweet time near ITM) for my first cash in that god forsaken bird. I feel pretty great about my hyper game/results. It'd be nice to just bink the $530 to provide some padding but it's fine.

And then I got a 25/2263 in a big Winamax Series $100e for a decent cash. First would have been 13k + bounties.

In my 7th place I ran into a pretty interesting ICM spot I will model. And in my 8th place ($55 Monsoon on 888) I ran into a reg/mutant type who decided to go full ******. I could feel he was super horny to S&M the table with his timings/etc. Bit unfortunate we got caught in the gooey crossfire with these hands.

1) Sure I'll PIO this one with ICM. There's some chance his line is good. It's annoying though when you know someone is being silly but you're probably not good on the river anyways because they're doing a combination of mashing buttons on flop/turn and then not bluffing enough on river. Considered shoving river but doesn't seem right with this hand.

Pacific Poker - 17500/35000 Ante 4375 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG+1): 73.18 BB
MP: 49.53 BB
MP+1: 23.99 BB
CO: 16.81 BB
BTN: 12.34 BB
SB: 88.74 BB
BB: 34.12 BB
UTG: 24.16 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) Q 4 6
SB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, SB raises to 6.42 BB, Hero calls 4.42 BB

Turn: (18.84 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 7.16 BB, Hero calls 7.16 BB

River: (33.16 BB, 2 players) 5
SB bets 12.64 BB, Hero calls 12.64 BB

SB shows 5 5 (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 54%, Flop 13%, Turn 11%)
Hero mucks A Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 46%, Flop 87%, Turn 89%)
SB wins 58.44 BB

2. So after that 55 hand and same villain. I don't think you're "supposed" to do this with JJ for reasons like what happened but I could tell he wanted it. Bit unfortunate to run into this combo though and lose the flip with this stack set up. It's just a shame his 4b is just dumpstering a lot of money against population.

Pacific Poker - 20000/40000 Ante 5000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 38.03 BB
SB: 46.4 BB
BB: 20.56 BB
UTG: 14.27 BB
UTG+1: 10.36 BB
MP: 100.46 BB
MP+1: 28.1 BB
CO: 24.32 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, MP raises to 100.34 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 31.9 BB and is all-in

Flop: (78.3 BB, 2 players) K Q 6

Turn: (78.3 BB, 2 players) K

River: (78.3 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows J J (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 56%, Flop 11%, Turn 0%)
MP shows Q K (Full House, Kings full of Queens)
(Pre 44%, Flop 89%, Turn 100%)
MP wins 78.3 BB
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Old 01-15-2020, 11:49 PM   #434
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Ran the AQ vs 55 hand on PIO with ICM. I wanted to leave the door open on his play because I didn't think it's completely awful or anything, just a bit spicy. It looks like I have a high frequency bet. PIO never chooses the XR, turn barrel, or river barrel lines but they are all close enough in EV where you can kind of see what a frisky FTer would be trying to do.

I bet like 67% of the time choosing the small sizing.
Flop XR with the 5c5x reasonably close enough in EV
Turn always choosing his smaller sizing but now the barrel is lagging behind checking by a decent margin.
And then river again clear checking but EV of small bet is reasonably close.

In sum though if you're taking the non-PIO option on every street, and knowing the way these dolts give up a lot on river, you're starting to play with fire. I was actually calling river on blanks pending sizing. We'll never know if he would have kept firing without hitting the 5.

Yes I am a bit salty about this one. Both this hand and the JJ vs KQ hand he's just bathing himself in thick fluids and daring me to set my EV on fire as well. Next time!
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Old 01-16-2020, 01:38 AM   #435
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Interesting.

Btw, I've been thinking more and more in the past few weeks about how much hidden value there might be, when EVs run fairly close together across a variety of different lines, in intentionally taking the same type of (SLIGHTLY) less +EV line, in order to establish a fake playing style that your opponents notice about you, to then exploit for a much larger amount of EV later on than you'd have gotten a chance to exploit had you taken the perfect EV line every time. I feel like that might end up becoming "poker 2.0" in the post-solver era to some degree. Setting up fake divergences from the top solver lines in order to set up longer term exploits or something like that. And being really good at knowing just how much EV you are giving up (i.e. only picking spots where you're hardly giving any up, where EVs run pretty close) and how much you'll get to exploit in the aftermath to more than make up for it.
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Old 01-16-2020, 06:02 PM   #436
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Hi sir!

"evbb: 2.33
bb/100: 7.87"

What does those figures mean? Are they moore accurate then ROI?
Also do you know if you can find them on hm3?

Cheers!
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Old 01-16-2020, 08:28 PM   #437
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Hi Silver you can find them easily on hm3/pt4/h2n

bb/100 means how many big blinds you're winning per 100 hands.
my "ev bb" is shorthand for ev bb/100 which is something a database can track. It adjusts for luck in all-ins so it's more accurate than bb/100.
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Old 01-16-2020, 10:01 PM   #438
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Day 2 of Pure Heart Grind

evbb: 11.38
bb/100: 21.83

Managed to find a 1st place in my only FT of the day. Won the $215 Octopus on 888 for $4000 and a nice score that put me in the black. Don't have any cool hands of note. Was playing against a pretty wild whale who was switching between 2x and 3x erratically. Once he busted it ended up pretty standard all around.

I've been simming a lot of BvB ICM ranges recently. This was the subject of my first RIO video (live now) and I'll continue exploring it. I think I punted a few spots actually BvB but I will have to study them and see. I was IP with a pretty big chip lead 3-handed in the Octopus and made some "frisky" jams over limps with combos that are probably punts. I guess this means discipline continues to be an issue

Other highlights were a 9th place in a $109 hyper where I made a pretty thin jam on button with 69cc (possibly bad) and got punished. And then 25th or something in the $33 Builder/60k. Those fields are so huge and the structure gets a bit poor so you need to run quite well. Luck didn't hold at the end.

FTS of this "challenge"
8th $55 Monsoon
7th $88
1st $215 Octopus
2nd Big $55

Just made it to day 2 of this 250e 125K on Stars.ES. Managed to lose with AA twice to end up short. Pretty brutal in high stakes PKOs. Was trying to punt the rest off so I don't have to come back for day 2 but looks like I'll have 10bb to try to spin tomorrow.

1. This was the second spot with AA. Button is a recreational running hot. I got quite unlucky to lose but also quite lucky with this river. Plan was to jam river. When the T hit on the river I think I'm pretty boned. Even then I would have considered heroing river actually but the BB called as well. BB's flop call and turn call are god awful unless he plans on bluffing river (which he didn't).

I didn't even notice SB was all-in despite 2 tabling. Was for a small bounty though.


PokerStars - 1500/3000 Ante 375 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 15.12 BB
UTG+1: 15.94 BB
MP: 29.31 BB
CO: 25.77 BB
BTN: 63.22 BB
SB: 1.11 BB
BB: 62.03 BB

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 0.49 BB and is all-in, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.86 BB, 4 players) T 4 4
BB checks, Hero bets 1.97 BB, BTN calls 1.97 BB, BB calls 1.97 BB

Turn: (13.76 BB, 4 players) 4
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (13.76 BB, 4 players) T
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 18 BB, BB calls 18 BB, fold

BTN shows 4 A (Four of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 21%, Flop 89%, Turn 100%)
SB mucks 3 3 (Full House, Fours full of Tens)
(Pre 31%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%)
BB mucks J K (Full House, Fours full of Tens)
(Pre 47%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
BTN wins 49.76 BB
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Old 01-17-2020, 04:36 AM   #439
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Was reading over a few things before going to bed that made my blood boil a bit. Time for two rants. Also I just want to say I'm writing this as someone who is sun running hypers this year with 39% ROI in <$215 Hypers on Stars. But my career ROI is 10% in these games.

1) Stake Kings Pure Boosted Filth

Was reading up on Stake Kings and took a browse through the pros selling and I find it absolutely outrageous. Found three main pros below. Want to state before going in that I had a lot of respect for these players and think they're reasonably tough opponents/winning players.

dragonwarior breakeven/marginal since 2017

65% markup on daily BB $44
50% markup on daily Marathon
25% markup on $82 hyper
34% markup on Hot $82
35% markup on $33 hyper
32% markup on BBHR
45-50% markup on Party $55's
38% markup on Big 109
32% markup on $215 Last Chance Hyper Satellite to Fast Friday

This guy is on 0.6% ROI in his last 33,588 games. Some of these markups are absolutely outrageous and downright predatory. These are all daily tournaments with mostly 100-200 players (capping max rois) with withered guarantees and the markups are set higher than some of the max attainable ROIs possible.

ImDaNuts stuck infi from his peak binked a few scores

38% markup on $44 Turbo PKO 6K Guaranteed
32% Big 109
30% BBHR
25% on 80 player $109 Hypers
29% and 45% on Late Regged $215 and $44 BB

Same deal with this guy. His plays aren't as outrageous as dragonwarior but they're in the same ballpark. And it hurts me to blast this guy because I was a big fan of him for a while and I cheer for all the old school American p5 regs as the Europeans have pretty much taken over the game. #HulkHogan music

Easterdamnz Twitch streamer doing quite well recently. I enjoy his stream/highlights

Think Easter is probably the best player of this bunch and he's been doing pretty well lately. But he's putting up $530 BBHR's at 33%, the Sunday BBHR at 40%, the $1K Warmup at 15%, and the $530 Supersonics at 20%. Ran a filter for 39 cream of the crop elite regulars at <100 player $530 Hypers and they're running at -3.8% ROI over 1562 games. Easter's total ROI even while doing quite well this year is 12.4%. And he's charging more than that or double for the highest stakes on the schedule?

I've had a lot of discussions with a lot of smart people about the marketplace and markup. I've heard arguments from people saying it's fine and you should charge what the market will bear/it's a free country/etc. That's fine I respect your opinion but I'm going to call bullshit on that. I remember back in the day I was coaching jamiestaples and we were getting friendly. And then he told me about his plan to pump the marketplace for way more markup than he knew he was worth because it's a free market. And then he came to Vegas to visit and went on a hooker binge. And then next time I saw him he was soaking up Twitch + selling action at 50%.

I think evil is a spectrum and charging this kind of markup, mostly to recreational/casual buyers who don't know they're getting fleeced, is walking towards the dark side. I remember courtiebee would message me on Skype asking me what I thought about different markups for different events. I see she is selling some action still and her markup is on the more reasonable side (sub 20%). This is because she has integrity and is not scum. SHOUTOUT to the professional streamers like Fintan/Spraggy/tonkaaaa/Buehlero/PAV/Egption etc who aren't doing this kind of bullshit. tonkaaaa was at the top of the mountain and could have been ****ing over people left and right just like this for outrageous markups but he actually decided to hang up the jersey and now he's playing super high stakes and seems to be bossing it up.

I get what the first two guys are doing. They don't want to find a backer so they want to just trade off their name and fleece the public to finance their marginal grind. And Easter is being less scummy IMO but he's a streamer and wants to cash in on that and subsidize his buy-ins. Sure that's fine. So charge 10%. Charge something reasonably in the spectrum of fair. Where you can conceivably argue that the action you're selling could be +ev in the right circumstance.

This isn't it. This post might lose me some popularity but someone has to call people out on their bullshit. And sure I'll do it. Because to me there's actually a clear through line that links this kind of markup scamming with bot rings, cheating in home games, rigging dice games, stealing from people, etc. And if you want them to support you as a streamer that's what donations/tips/subs are for. I'd wager easily 80%+ of investors don't understand what the max attainable ROI is and what a fair markup looks like, especially if they're being driven over from Twitch or YouTube or whatever. Also I'd happy crossbook against these scummers and their outrageous lines.
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Old 01-17-2020, 05:01 AM   #440
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2) PokerStars and 30% Progressive KO's

Think I've done an objective job of giving props to Stars.com when due. All of the series they've run have rolled out flawlessly and I was actually contemplating writing a post about how the difference in execution between .COM and .FRESPT is evident in the margins (like structures/late registration cut offs/schedule planning etc).

But I was reading through the MTT Feedback Thread and noticed recently they are trialing 30% PKO's. I saw them in the lobby and just glossed over them until reading the thread. It didn't hit me since I don't play them that 30% PKO's actually reduce money from the top prize and spread the payouts more. I'm trying to envision the process that led them to trial this and here's what I came up with:

1) 30% Progressive means more of the money is spread out and removed from the pool. Only 30% of the KO amounts are added to each player's heads so this means everyone in the top finishes will win less. This is a form of increasing rake efficiency by spreading out the payouts. Rake efficiency? Smells like a directive from up top.

2) There's a long list of problems with PokerStars right now, mostly due to a lack of time. Some things they could address with more time: moving everything to 8-Max uniformly. Fixing payout structures (not the new pay tables but actual bugs/flaws with super small fields/high stakes etc. Just saw a $1k warmup with a $50k prize pool paying $20k to 1st?!. Paying 1st and 2nd place equally in PKO's.

You know Stars started a lot of things that are industry standard. And now that other teams (Party/Winamax/etc) are all uniting around the pay PKO 1-2 the same, Stars is resisting it even though it's a great idea. And this has made Stars into the best site for tournaments with the worst rakeback, benefits, support (lately), and payouts that are way way way too top-heavy. Paying 1-2 the same in PKO's would go a long way toward mitigating this and benefit Stars by lowering the massive sum that 1st place takes away.

I always thought the reason PKO's aren't paying 1-2 the same on Stars was due to a lack of time. While it's pretty easy to script a 30% PKO tournament and change the name I refuse to believe Luke and the team chose to prioritize this silly project on their own. I think it came from up top because maybe Business Analysts decided to run some numbers and decided 30% was a neat little test to try to claw rake back from the MTT pool a little more, a little harder. There's no rational way that testing this kind of 30% structure would take precedence over things like updating the main schedule and series planning. Maybe I'm wrong though.

I think the 30% PKO is a terrible idea:

1) Baseline PKO mechanics are already convoluted enough. People debate how many chips the first KO is worth. I mean Stars had to change the entire way the PKO amounts were displayed midway through the process. Even now I doubt a single casual player actually understands the mechanics of how the PKOs work. They just see money in the middle and go for it. I've seen dozens of examples of recs spewing for min bounties super deep in tournaments. It's actually a wonder to me that recreationals are so drawn to them when the way they are surfaced to the customer just makes my head hurt.

2) We've now reached a kind of "standard environment" where all sites show the amount you can win from a knockout on the table. And it's 50%. And players don't really track or calculate how much is being added to their bounty but we all just kind of trust the math and it works. Because 50% is the simplest it can be.

3) So what happens if you add this 30% test to the environment? Well now this equilibrium of standard cooperation across all sites (towards a unified theory of clean PKO surfacing to customers) gets messed up. And we'd be even more unified if Stars, the industry leader, would just help themselves by paying 1-2 the same.

4) There's a common theme with a lot of decisions Stars makes. The two recurring ones seem to be: 1) Try to have your cake and eat it too with dishonesty. 2) Make penny-rich short-sighted decisions with no clear gain at the expense of better big picture changes. This is a clear case of #2 for me.

Do you know what boosts rake more than nickel and dime changing 50% PKO multipliers to 30% (which just confuses everyone). How about.. you implement actual ways to generate more rake? Some of the ideas I listed previously would have a much bigger impact on revenue than this. Add more majors/tournaments to hours that need them. How about that? Play with some more hypers. Why aren't you running more Hyper PKO's at peak? Try a hyper on demand. Why not? It's better than 30% test PKO, that's for sure. 30% PKO isn't even a net positive in any way. It's just a net negative due to player confusion and will have a minimal impact on revenue. What are you going to do? Try to change Bounty Builders to 30% later too? Sounds like a joke.

30% test PKO has to be one of the worst ideas I've seen in a while. Maybe since Unfold. The industry has finally settled on 50% PKO as the standard and you're mixing it up at the expense of actually improving your product. Here's a list of changes that would make more revenue than this:

1) Better main schedule
2) More re-entry in the right places
3) Efficient structures. mement_mori just mentioned another stalling ring of Japanese players this time in the $109 late editions.
4) Pay 1+2 the same in PKO's

I think you could send the analysts into more productive directions.

Last edited by YugiohPro; 01-17-2020 at 05:08 AM.
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Old 01-17-2020, 05:17 AM   #441
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

How much is SK share?

Schoonbaert guy sells PLO KO's for 1.6....
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Old 01-17-2020, 05:28 AM   #442
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Yeah I wasn't too sure on that one since I don't play PLO myself and don't know what the max attainable ROI's are. That one seemed outrageous as well.

Just want to say one last thing about the markups. I'm all for free market etc even though poker players constantly disappoint me with their short-sightedness and selfishness (see pros loling at giraf's noble boycott and registering anyways). I had a lot to say about the HS boycott but I just bit my tongue because of NDA. I've actually talked to quite a few HS regulars this past year who absolute slay the games but were in contact with Luke and trying to keep the overall health of poker in mind. Very commendable.

I will say that the boycott was a golden opportunity, and one of the few opportunities left in the current climate, for poker pros to actually exercise some leverage. It's a shame it blew up but I respect the effort and all of the guys who sat out.

All I'm asking for is can you just scale it down a bit to slight knavery instead of outright gross larceny. Like maybe tone it down by 10-15% to feed your family. You don't have to feed your butler too with your markups.
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Old 01-17-2020, 05:56 AM   #443
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Also it's possible that the rant about the 30% PKO is making a mountain out of a molehill. I will happily insert foot in mouth (not for the last time) if they were just testing something small or running some parameters and it's not some big conspiracy to rake more. I've just been conditioned to expect the worst with all of the pay table changes and all
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Old 01-17-2020, 06:39 AM   #444
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by YugiohPro View Post
3) Efficient structures. mement_mori just mentioned another stalling ring of Japanese players this time in the $109 late editions.
I'd like to read more about this as I play the late schedule quite often(assuming you mean asian mornings) and while I'm playing on other sites I've never seen so much stalling as I see in some of the tournaments on PokerStars during this time frame. The structure certainly encourages it to a point but possibly even more so if you are doing it within a circle of other friendly accounts.

btw, calling Stars tournaments top heavy isn't really fair. They are as flat as ironing board aside from the first place bump which is still a lower percentage of the overall prizepool compared to yester-years.
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Old 01-17-2020, 07:18 AM   #445
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by YugiohPro View Post
2) PokerStars and 30% Progressive KO's

30% test PKO has to be one of the worst ideas I've seen in a while. Maybe since Unfold. The industry has finally settled on 50%
...

originally i wrote something different, i completely missed what this 30 means in practice. a thought it was 60% bounty pool (and 0.3bi minbounty), 40% freezout pool and it seemed very logical. i played a couple tourney without even looking at the structure tab, meh.

Last edited by enzet; 01-17-2020 at 07:47 AM.
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Old 01-17-2020, 10:46 AM   #446
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Really enjoying the write-ups especially regarding the mark-up. Agree with pretty much all you've said in those regards. Please tell me the Staples hooker binge was a real thing though...
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Old 01-17-2020, 11:49 AM   #447
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Love the calling people out , confused by the throwing in the hooker dig at Staples though?
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Old 01-17-2020, 12:57 PM   #448
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Been following for a while as I play same games as you mostly. Jaime staples thing had me chuckle keep it up!
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Old 01-17-2020, 03:08 PM   #449
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3 View Post
I'd like to read more about this as I play the late schedule quite often(assuming you mean asian mornings) and while I'm playing on other sites I've never seen so much stalling as I see in some of the tournaments on PokerStars during this time frame. The structure certainly encourages it to a point but possibly even more so if you are doing it within a circle of other friendly accounts.

btw, calling Stars tournaments top heavy isn't really fair. They are as flat as ironing board aside from the first place bump which is still a lower percentage of the overall prizepool compared to yester-years.
Hey cneuy, I only read the post from mement. Not aware of what's actually going on or seen it myself. I do know there were some stalling issues during my time there. At the time I saw it as another sign of lack of focus on game integrity compared to churning rake.

Don't agree with your second statement. I'm pretty sure PKOS end up paying much more on Stars at all buy-in ranges due to 1st/2nd. Most of this discussion has been about PKOs so I think they're definitely more top heavy. And then the other point was about the $1K Warmup that appears to have paid 40% of the prize pool to 1st place. I haven't seen that except on the sites known for being super top heavy like old FTP/WPN, if that. 40% is extraordinarily high. Scope said it was 51 entries (so 51k) but I could have even misread that.

And then this could just be an issue of semantics for non-PKO tournaments sub <$100. I haven't looked at the payout comparisons but if you're flattening everything but then also giving 1st a similar payout, even if the absolute number is less than yester-years I think it becomes even more "top heavy" in my book.

Quote:
Originally Posted by enzet View Post
...

originally i wrote something different, i completely missed what this 30 means in practice. a thought it was 60% bounty pool (and 0.3bi minbounty), 40% freezout pool and it seemed very logical. i played a couple tourney without even looking at the structure tab, meh.
I think I did this as well though I didn't give it that much thought. It's just kind of confusing. Who would see a tournament that says 30% PKO Test Structure and then say sure let's play that, 50% wasn't doing it for me?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutledge Smitty View Post
Really enjoying the write-ups especially regarding the mark-up. Agree with pretty much all you've said in those regards. Please tell me the Staples hooker binge was a real thing though...
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbalerv View Post
Love the calling people out , confused by the throwing in the hooker dig at Staples though?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanabal18 View Post
Been following for a while as I play same games as you mostly. Jaime staples thing had me chuckle keep it up!
Only true stories on this blog. Kanabal are you congreg/kanabal on 888? I find you to be an unusually tough regular and remember this name for that reason. Keep up the grind!
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Old 01-17-2020, 03:18 PM   #450
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Re: YugiohPro: There and Back Again (MTT Discussion Thread)

Two quick things I've noticed yesterday that I really like from Stars BTW to "balance my range."

1) I was logging in to .ES from my wife's laptop to check my Day 2 start time. Because I was logging in from a new device they automatically set me up with a new PIN sent to my e-mail address before I was able to log in. Amazing security feature I was impressed.

2) The new UFC promotion with the chests leading to HP damage. I don't know how much money I will make from this but I found it very, very cool and engaging.
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