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When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance

11-15-2016 , 01:34 AM
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...38/index2.html

That post above will give you an idea of where my poker mind was about 18 months ago. (I almost play exclusively Bovada/Ignition 6max 25/50/100NL zoom during this time period). I like to write on here from time to time because it's anonymous and I know I can come back here to look at my own posts to see what I was thinking at the time.

So a year and a half ago I was still struggling with understanding on-line poker variance and the current state of poker in general (the fact that after 10 years of playing poker I'm still at the very bottom rung). And in fact earlier this year in 2016, still struggling with understanding (believing) poker variance. It's hard (ok, it's impossible) for rec player (me) to watch guys fold, fold, fold, fold, fold like a tagbot and then suddenly shove PF with 93o and hit 99932 board for a pot that is 4 buy-ins. It's hard to believe the whole thing isn't rigged when you watch 30, then 50, then 100 BI's disappear, when your poker tracker stats tell you that you're getting your money in good.

But then I went and played a couple hundred hours of the local 2-20 spread limit game and saw hand after hand after hand of the same thing. In fact I got crushed at the local 2-20 spread limit. You are guaranteed to see a showdown at this level of a game and you are guaranteed to be disgusted with some of the hands that beat you. The forums will tell you that you should crush loose games like this but the same 10 guys have been playing this local game for almost 4 years now and I think they know just know how to tag team on the occasional rec player that shows up. (whether it's on purpose or not, they've just been playing together the same game way too long). Every session for me ends the same, losing a $500 pot on a runner-runner gutshot straight draw where the villain was 4-betting and 5-betting each street.

So after awhile I jumped back on Bovada (6max NL zoom) and went and got my ass kicked some mores at 25NL and 50NL and 100NL. Getting my money in when it was good, but getting my stack wiped out over and over and over again on beats. However in my strategy I was getting it all in on the flop and my edge was always small, say in the range of 51-70% to win. At this point I was willing to accept variance, but my conclusion at this point was also that poker is just all luck.

Anyway, I went and read and read and read some more in the forums. I only have 50,000 lifetime hands in poker tracker which everyone will tell you is hardly even a sample size. The experienced guys just kept re-iterating that you need a million hands before you think you've started to see it all. And I read another article by a statistician that said that some people are simply mathematically lucky and others simply unlucky. And another article that says maybe only 1 in 8 players are actually making money.

So then I read more articles that say you should 3-bet more preflop and that you should continuation bet most of the time post flop. So I did that like crazy. The blinds that I picked up bluffing gave me more ammo to set mine and I could work up to 2BI's, but eventually I would 3-bet PF and then bluff post flop and get into situations where I would end up spewing my whole 2BI stack anyway. At this point my stack was large enough that set miners were targeting me, and autobluffing flop and turn is a great way to pay off set miners.

So then I learned to get out of the way when cbet bluff fails but then I ended up back in the same situation where variance (and it turns out, poor play) was causing me to lose my BI every time. I would buy in for 100BB full, scrap my way up to 200-300BB, then get crushed by another deep stack villan who would 3 or 4-bet to 20-30BB with hands like 85o. I wasn't paying off the set miners as often, but now I was paying off the devious villain mastermands who somehow knew how to 3 and 4bet their **** offsuit small gapped cards when it was going to hit.

So I read more and more articles from guys who said go ahead and go crazy with 4-bet or even 5-bet preflop if you feel like it to try to at least punish these players when they miss. I couldn't bring myself to do it, I kept playing tight poker, building up to 2-3 BI's in a round and then spewing my stack to the mastermind who would 3 and 4bet 20, 30 or even 40bb with 74o, T8o, etc. etc. These guys would c-bet and continuation 3 and 4 bet with gut shot draws or runner runner flush draws etc. etc.

Somewheres in here I actually got poker tracker installed and gathering hands, but still wasn't really using it other than to look at the big shiny loss graph.

I also started observing cash games to watch other players get crushed in the same manner (villain semi bluffing his way into a runner runner something for big pots). At this point my main game leak was dumping whole stacks to sharks on runner runner draws, or dumping deep stacks on tilt (i.e. dumping a deep stack to a set miner with no real reason to be calling in the first place). Mind you this is at 25NL and 50NL and 100NL which is mostly ABC poker, with some sharkies that get deep stacked to collect off the bigger fish like me. At 100NL we regularly see sharks leaving the table with 5-6BI's for a day's work. In any case, to keep playing, I need to plug this leak.

I read articles that if you suck and can't play, you should just tighten up your game. I tried that but then AKo would get crushed, AQo would get crushed, KK would get crushed, AA would get crushed, etc. etc. I was playing tight preflop but getting crushed by random wide ranges post flop due to lousy play on my part.

So I decided to play outright nit, only playing AA through 77 (literally folding all else), playing 66 through 22 for 1BB only, turbo folding any time I didn't flop a set (set mining). I never raised, and only called 3bb or maybe 4bb bets when preflop on big hands. The long stretches while waiting for flopped sets (something like 1 in every 120 hands) costs a lot of money at a 6 max table. I would slow play those sets when I hit them, but never get paid, villain would always fold on turn.

So, I kept playing nit but started raising like an idiot right on any flop where I hit a set. A surprising thing happened. Fish starting calling (or 3 or 4 or 5 betting, or even shoving all-in) with their backdoor runner runner draws. The same fish who, if I slow played and bet on the turn would fold, were now tripping over each other to shove their chips in on a long shot hand. And especially those villains who would bet with 86o and hit their runner-runners on the river, with a set mining strategy I am often hitting a full boat and getting paid (when they think they've sucked out and must've thought I was holding AKo or AA).

Lately for deep stack I either go all out nit (playing only AA-TT with set mining strategy) or I go crazy devious villain (going 3 or 4-bet with gapped suited like 86s against certain opponents). I'm not making money at a deep stack but not losing it either. Will have to keep working at deep stack and probably pick up some theory books or something. But at least now I am regularly getting paid.

So at this point I am finally looking into the poker tracker. What a depressing thing to finally do :-). Looking at poker tracker, major leaks leading to a -12bb/100 over 50,000 hands:

-overplaying JJ. (No ****, JJ is my most -EV hand. Literally.)
-tilt shoves when mad at variance. (Gee is that a surprise)
-playing lots of trash and playing trash hands badly. (this is just a good way to lose money)
-playing scared/weak on weak hands and then not folding when villains hit their draws (KQo is my fifth most -EV hand)
-spewing when villain raises like crazy and hits crazy **** (backdoor 4-card flush / runner runner gut / etc. etc.)
-over playing pocket pairs in general (you don't got at least top pair? get the hell out of the hand in most situations). Especially 22-77 are -EV for me.
-playing long sessions, building up 2-3BI's at a table, then spewing to that shifty sharkey supervillain

AA and QQ (I hit lots of QQ sets it seems) are my most +EV hands. AKo surprisingly is profitable. KQs is profitable. KQo is very very bad for me. 88 through AA are profitable. And no surprise AA is still the most +EV of all.

Now there are deeper strategy things that I completely suck at, but based on looking over 50,000 hands in poker tracker, I have some ABC poker holes that need closed first before I can go read a strategy book. Once I play a tight game and make better folds, then I can look at 3 and 4-bet preflop, lots of c-betting, etc. My game is too passive/weak right now, that in itself is a leak, but I can't read well enough to get too aggressive yet.

Man, poker is complicated. lol Well, I'm not giving up yet. I have a goal of -8bb/100 over the next 50,000 hands. And from 100,000 to 200,000 hands I have an ultimate goal of 0bb/100 for that range.

That means that for 100NL I have lost about 60BI's. I don't mind getting my ass kicked at this level (I'm a rec player with money to burn) and I eventually settled on a BR of around 250BI's. (No that was not my initial bankroll. My initial bankroll was 1BI.. then 2BI's... ). My options at this point are to burn through 250BI bankroll at 100NL and quit poker, or learn how to break even. I am not interested in ABC at 25NL or 50NL. Not exciting enough! (Again this is coming from a rec player with a good paying day job and side business, not coming from someone who wants to be a poker pro for a living!).

Unfortunately Ignition has corrupt hand histories so I am missing the last 5,000-6,000 hands or so. If I can get those corrupt hands, I'll post my big ol' losing chart. Normally I'd be too ashamed to post a losing chart, but **** it, maybe if more of us would post losing charts, less people would go and think they are going to become poker pros. I do not want to share my hand histories with anyone because there are way too many leaks to count at this point!

And hell, maybe one major leak is not admitting that I suck at poker.

Last edited by stamina; 11-15-2016 at 01:38 AM. Reason: Oh yeah, poker tracker will show you that you're wrong :-)
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 01:50 AM
Bovada 100NL zoom 6max hold 'em.



-5.69BB/100 over 30,000 hands. My 100NL zoom stats aren't as bad. (Well it's still bad but not -12bb bad).

I also played some micro stakes for awhile, will have to see where I landed at lower stakes. I have played mostly 100NL zoom on Bovada so I was curious how that graph looked by itself. Next up will be stakes at 50NL or below.

Last edited by stamina; 11-15-2016 at 01:56 AM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 01:55 AM
All NL hold 'em that was 50NL or less. (Everything from $0.01/$0.02 to $0.25/$0.50)



Oh lordy! -23.67BB/100 over 10,000 hands.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 02:04 AM
Oh... the missing chart is 1,400 hands at 2NL through 10NL. Hmmm going on tilt and then going up 5 or 10 levels is not a good idea. -73.76BB/100 over 1,400 hands at various levels from 200NL to 1000NL. I can't post that one it's just embarassing.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 02:30 AM
The 100NL Bovada zoom probably best represents my current playing style.

I also have another 10,000 hands at America's Card room at 50NL, 100NL and 200NL but they are 10,000 of the worst hands you have ever seen. Mostly stuff like this hand below. Hard to watch now:


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.55, PFR: 22.26, 3Bet Preflop: 8.44, Hands: 899)
BTN: 102.7 BB (VPIP: 34.85, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 67)
SB: 103.75 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 18.02, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 116)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, Hero posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 7c 7d
Hero checks, fold, fold, SB raises to 5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4 BB

Flop : (11 BB, 2 players) 5c 2c 4h
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (11 BB, 2 players) 8d
SB bets 5.23 BB, Hero calls 5.23 BB

River : (21.45 BB, 2 players) Ks
SB bets 10.19 BB, Hero raises to 43 BB, SB calls 32.81 BB

SB shows Ad Kd (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 48%, Flop 34%, Turn 23%)

Hero shows 7c 7d (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 53%, Flop 66%, Turn 77%)

SB wins 105.95 BB
0.12 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.



and this!



Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $4 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 133.88 BB (VPIP: 32.43, PFR: 21.62, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 37)
CO: 159.29 BB (VPIP: 23.72, PFR: 20.16, 3Bet Preflop: 3.06, Hands: 259)
BTN: 88.11 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.01, 3Bet Preflop: 12.24, Hands: 120)
Hero (SB): 103.12 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6c 8s
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold

Flop : (6 BB, 2 players) 9c 7d Jh
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.85 BB, Hero calls 2.85 BB

Turn : (11.7 BB, 2 players) 4c
Hero checks, UTG checks

River : (11.7 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero bets 5.6 BB, UTG raises to 28 BB, Hero calls 22.4 BB

UTG shows Ac Tc (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 0%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

UTG wins 67.2 BB
0.06 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 02:31 AM
Good lord looking at some of the worst hands is very painful.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
But then I went and played a couple hundred hours of the local 2-20 spread limit game and saw hand after hand after hand of the same thing. In fact I got crushed at the local 2-20 spread limit. You are guaranteed to see a showdown at this level of a game and you are guaranteed to be disgusted with some of the hands that beat you. The forums will tell you that you should crush loose games like this but the same 10 guys have been playing this local game for almost 4 years now and I think they know just know how to tag team on the occasional rec player that shows up. (whether it's on purpose or not, they've just been playing together the same game way too long). Every session for me ends the same, losing a $500 pot on a runner-runner gutshot straight draw where the villain was 4-betting and 5-betting each street.
If you decide to go back and play 2-20 spread limit, the Small Stakes Limit forum would be a good place to visit. Guys in the Casino Arizona gang play spread limit, and we used to have a smaller spread in Colorado. It might be the game with a potential high win rate (bb/hr) for an expert -- the blinds are small, the math says you can play a lot of hands in spots, and you aren't actually punished for domination like in a big bet game. If your opponents make $20 mistakes later in the hand, you're investing $2 to see them do it.

Two things. Start with the bold part about disgusting hands. You should celebrate playing bad players. You (or I) might be a bad player. Especially in a small stakes live game, people aren't all motivated by profit. If Bob can make $200/hour as a lawyer, does Bob care if his casino EV is $6/hr or -$20/hour? If he'd wanted to make money, he'd have stayed in the office. The whole entitlement tilt part of "disgusting hands" is bad all around. It makes you sad. It makes you want to win pots, even if you have to spew shove to do it. If you were a pro, every time someone makes a bad play you'd be happy and every time someone made an expert one you'd be sad. Mostly you'd just grind your hours for your hourly, because poker stuff happens.

It is possible that there is rampant collusion in your local game, it just isn't likely. It could be there is one player at the table (the rake) that can't be beaten. If your colluders are 4 way capping every street with gutshot draws, the game can be crushed for a huge hourly. If the guy with 74s is capping every street because the button has AA, then you never had the best hand and you probably can't beat them. You see the 8 high straight he rivered, but you were always behind the overpair and didn't realize you were drawing near dead.

If you want to learn limit (and near limit) games, come join us in SSLHE.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
River : (21.45 BB, 2 players) Ks
SB bets 10.19 BB, Hero raises to 43 BB, SB calls 32.81 BB
I'm not a NL player, but it is hard to pass on this. You talked about working on your game and not being able to win. Here's a clue. I think you played some previous streets too passively, but some real NL player can riddle that out. I think you just punted off 1/3 a stack here, out of frustration. Assuming you didn't and this was a poker play...

You bet or raise on the river because worse hands will call, for value. You can do so as a bluff. One of the worst sins in poker is to make a bet exactly structured so all worse hands will fold and all better hands will call or re-raise. You put in an extra 33BB that would either win you nothing extra or would be lost almost all the time. +0/-33, assign probabilities as you like.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Bovada 100NL zoom 6max hold 'em.
These stakes are well beyond the scope of the Beginners Forum. You do realize you are playing against good, professional level players?

Are the stakes correct in those two hands you posted? $2NL and $4NL? So you're just playing any random stake?

What stakes have you actually beat for a statistically significant sample size? Any?
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
These stakes are well beyond the scope of the Beginners Forum. You do realize you are playing against good, professional level players?
Yes indeed. I posted in beginner forum based on my skill level (not on skill level of opponents) but I certainly am not married to any one particular forum over another.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
Are the stakes correct in those two hands you posted? $2NL and $4NL? So you're just playing any random stake?
Yes they are correct. I have 1,400 hands (-73BB/100) at random stakes 200NL and above that never should have happened. This post is more of a diary post and post mortem of my first 50,000 hands of on-line poker. To be honest I have to admit those hands did happen (and of course recognize they should not have ever been played).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
What stakes have you actually beat for a statistically significant sample size? Any?
None! I have absolutely never beat any stakes of poker on-line. This was sort of a diary diarrhea post to get all my awful incorrect thinking down on paper.

Sort of a break you down so you can build yourself up sort of thing. So feel free to criticise and berate me lol :-). Lots and lots of wrong thinking and truly horrific actions on my part in my first 50,000 hands.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 05:06 PM
DougL absolutely great post on that particular hand. That was not a poker play on my part, just terrible gambly autopilot tilt play. These kinda of plays highly contribute to negative winrates.

Now that I have verbal diarrhead... lol. I have only really learned one valuable thing in 18 months and 50,000 hands:

-It's not rigged. It's just poker! (was very hard one for me to digest!)

But, I really needed to accept this in order to really commit to improving my game. As well as just flat out looking at how truly awful my first 50,000 were.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 05:57 PM
On the bright side: you're probably a much better player now than you were at hand one.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 06:11 PM
That is yet to be determined lol! I will probably turn this into one of those monthly diary type posts. Will see if I actually apply what I have learned on the next 50,000 hands. I am currently waiting for Ignition to fix their corrupt hand history problem before I play again. I need those hands.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 06:15 PM
If you turn the thread into a diary it's almost surely gonna get locked by a mod unless you ask them to move it to the poker goals and challenges forum.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-15-2016 , 07:31 PM
Ok that is good to know. Wondering if nuking (deleting) or closing (locking) this thread the way to go? This one is ending up rather pointless (not useful) from a forum community perspective?

I think what I meant to tell other players is that it is not rigged. Sometimes you can flip a coin and it lands heads 15 or 20 times in a row. Could have saved 2 pages and just said that, then opened a new thread under goals.

Probably this needs moved to goals forum.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-16-2016 , 04:20 AM
All right for the purposes of analysis, we'll use the 30,000 or so hands of 100NL Bovada Zoom 6max. This best represents my style of play (for what it's worth).



We will start with the overall basics recommended in the beginner's thread (#30 how to use poker tracker).

1. Preflop aggression - look for "PF Raise %" divided by the "Vol. Put $ In Pot." in each position. Less than 0.5 is considered not aggressive enough, but too high represents looseness.

BTN 0.72
CO 0.72
MP 0.76
EP 0.77
BB 0.32
SB 0.45

Analysis: Not sure, but it seems like we are overly aggressive in middle position compared to late position. This would probably a symptom of either too much cold calling in late position or just being overly aggressive in general.

2. Positional awareness. Check VPIP by position. Button VPIP should be 50% larger than UTG VPIP or greater.

BTN 21.25
CO 18.55
MP 18.94
EP 17.95
BB 23.04
SB 17.78

Analysis: This is not a good curve. We need to put more money into pots in late position (and/or less money into pots in early position).

3. Stealing. Check Att. to steal blinds is at least 20%, preferrably 30%. Check Chance to Steal and Raised and check the BB/100 for this stat. (I couldn't figure this out so I filtered by "Attempted Steal" and "Raised Steal". It seems the guide is written for PT3 but PT4 is vastly different and I can't find definitions for some of these things in Configure->Statistics.)

Att. to steal (overall): 18.29
"Attempted Steal" or "Raised Steal" winrate: 70.46BB/100

Analysis: Attempts to steal percentage is lower than recommended, but I'm confused as to what I'm looking for on winrate for steals.

4. Defending the blinds. For all SB and BB hands combined, check that the BB/Hand is above -0.375. "A BB/Hand of about -0.375 would indicate that you were no better off putting money into the pot than if you had folded." Also check "If you click on "Filters..." again and go under "Steal Attempted Against Your Blind" and click on "Steal Attempted." (couldn't find this in PT4).

SB and BB winrate: -0.3546/hand
Steal Attempted Against Your Blind / Steal Attempted winrate: ?

Analysis: Having same problem as 3 trying to understand how to run this report in PT4 (tutorial seems to be written for PT3, and PT4 is vastly different beast).

5. Heads-up play. Check your winrate when only 2 players see the flop. Also check your winrate with "pre-flop raise" set to "no raise". Again I can't find this in PT4 so I did a filter for "2 players on flop" and "Called Preflop Any Call"

Heads-up winrate: -20.13BB/100
Heads-up winrate with no raise: -93.72BB/100

Analysis: You suck heads-up and you suck worse when you are not the aggressor pre-flop. And I can tell you from my personal experience that one of my biggest leaks is weak pre-flop play (which in itself, coupled with weak post-flop play, leads you into all sorts of losing scenarios).

6. Multiway pots. Check 3 to 6 players, and check 3 to 6 players with "Called Preflop Any Call".

Multi-way winrate: -10.12BB/100
Multi-way winrate no raise: -18.68BB/100

Analysis: You suck less at multi-way pots, but you still suck more when you are not the aggressor.

7. Pocket pairs. Check VPIP with pocket pairs (should be extremely high, below 85% would be very bad). PFR% should be 1/3 to 1/2 of the VPIP%. Check winrate on AA through 88 for major leaks.

VPIP% with pocket pairs: 96.07%
PFR% with pocket pairs: 50.57%
Winrate of 77 through 22: 32.85BB/100
Winrate of AA through 88: 308.69BB/100

Analysis: VPIP is good (you are playing pocket pairs) but PFR% may be too high. Check further to see if you are raising too much with 22 through 77.

8. Suited connectors. No suggestion other than check to see if you have a positive winrate, if not, you are not playing these hands correctly.

Winrate for suited connectors: 52.48BB/100
VPIP% for suited connectors: 61.47%

Analysis: No comment.

9. Unsuited connectors. Same as above, except VPIP% needs to be less for unsuited connectors.

Winrate for unsuited connectors: -14.63BB/100
VPIP% for unsuited connectors: 23.50%

Analysis: You are playing unsuited connectors badly. (KQo is a very unprofitable hand for me.) When excluding KQo, winrate is -4.14BB/100. Your unsuited connector play is bad but it's extra bad with KQo.

10. Postflop aggression. I couldn't figure out PT4 on this one. Punting for now.

11. Check-raising. Ditto, PT4 setup too complicated, will keep working at it or look for pre-canned reports on PT4 website. (Honestly PT4 is not a well documented thing... PT3 documentation is fantastic).


Summary:

1. You should be cautious of being overly aggressive in middle position.
2. You need to see a bigger difference in VPIP when UTG vs OTB. This means more money in position and/or less money out of position.
3. You could probably steal more but there is a good beginner's thread on redlines. Your 18% is probably o.k. for now as you have bigger leaks in your game to fix. If you do want to increase stealing be sure to do more research on reading situations. Try to figure out how to run the correct PT4 report.
4. You make slightly more money in SB/BB than if you were just to outright fold all SB and BB hands. Try to figure out how to run the correct PT4 report and keep an eye on this statistic if you adjust your strategy in BB and SB positions.
5. Your heads-up play is abysmal. You are absolutely being crushed heads-up when you limp/are not the aggressor. Any change to strategy would be good here, even simple fixed strategy such as "fold or raise more preflop, limp less preflop" would help. You are either not folding when you know you are beat, and/or you are playing super weak heads-up and inviting more beats to rain down.
6. Your multi-way could be a lot better, and you are doing poorly when you are not the aggressor. See #5. Feel free to jump in multi-way pots until you figure out how to play heads up.
7. No comment.
8. No comment.
9. Your unsuited play is awful, especially with KQo. After analyzing you found KQo is your worst -EV hand. Work on your KQo post flop play and reads! When villain hits his turn or river card (runner runner flush, set on turn or river, over pair on river, etc.) you are paying the villain. Learn how to read when a villain has caught his draw and pay him off less times.
10. Learn more about PT4 and revisit this one.
11. Learn more about PT4 and revisit this one.

Other notes. I also analyzed my worst losing hands, and it turns out that I spew constantly when deep stacked, and then consequently go on tilt. For example lots of hands where I am 4BI's and holding AA or KK ($400 at the 100NL table) and villains are hitting sets on turn and river, hitting runner runner flush draws, etc. You do sometimes pay villains on flopped sets but you lose a lot more money on the dirty hands (runner runner flush, runner runner gutter, etc.), all specifically when you are deep stacked. Until you have time to learn how to play deep stacks, when you get up 2-4BI's at a table, just cash out and come back in at 1BI.


If anyone knows of a good PT4 tutorial thread, let me have at it. I'm strugging on some of this reporting.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-16-2016 , 07:32 AM
It is time for you to stop playing 100nl and 200nl. As CMAR mentioned, those levels are filled with top notch pros. You need to move down to 2nl to get started. If that is too "boring" for you to play, then you have a much bigger problem than just poker.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-16-2016 , 11:04 AM
Didn't look closely, but it seems like you're limping (or cold calling) in all positions and that you play about the same hands UTG as you do on the BTN. This means you don't have a preflop strategy or starting hand chart. You probably couldn't beat a soft live game playing like this, so modern online NL100 or NL200 means you'll never have a chance.

Learning poker.
  • Preflop strategy, hand chart with a few notes on how to deal with other player actions
  • Postflop when to be aggressive, when to call, and most importantly giving up early on losing hands
  • more basic strategy...
Preflop is fairly straightforward, especially in tight online games. You don't have to figure out which hands play well after 4 limps because you're either first in raising or dealing with an open raise.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-16-2016 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
It is time for you to stop playing 100nl and 200nl. As CMAR mentioned, those levels are filled with top notch pros. You need to move down to 2nl to get started. If that is too "boring" for you to play, then you have a much bigger problem than just poker.
I am not interested in making a living playing poker, at all. I am a pure rec player here to have fun. As far as I am concerned a player can learn at any stakes except for the following caveats, which do not apply to me.

If you are playing as a profession or have a limited BR then you must go down in limits to survive.

But if one is willing to budget 250BI as a hobby... I will get years of pleasure playing hold 'em or my money vs. some more expensive toys that are just sitting in a shop collecting dust.

Long story short I am here for leisure and I like the competition. Hell, I enjoy getting beat by good players!
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-16-2016 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
Didn't look closely, but it seems like you're limping (or cold calling) in all positions and that you play about the same hands UTG as you do on the BTN. This means you don't have a preflop strategy or starting hand chart. You probably couldn't beat a soft live game playing like this, so modern online NL100 or NL200 means you'll never have a chance.

Learning poker.
  • Preflop strategy, hand chart with a few notes on how to deal with other player actions
  • Postflop when to be aggressive, when to call, and most importantly giving up early on losing hands
  • more basic strategy...
Preflop is fairly straightforward, especially in tight online games. You don't have to figure out which hands play well after 4 limps because you're either first in raising or dealing with an open raise.
I agree with all of this. Thanks for taking the time to write. Am anxious to continue with some recent adjustments, and spot check these PT4 stats again after each session.

Need Ignition to fix their broken hand histories. I'm back to other hobbies until they get it fixed. I don't like playing without logging. :-(
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-17-2016 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
As far as I am concerned a player can learn at any stakes except for the following caveats, which do not apply to me.
I want to learn how to play basketball.

Which will teach me faster:

Playing in a rec league against a bunch of guys who are about as good to slightly better than me.

Playing in NBA games where I'm not going to be a factor in any of the play and am never even going to touch the ball.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
Hell, I enjoy getting beat by good players!
I hope so because that's all that's going to happen for a very long time.



Last edited by Cry Me A River; 11-17-2016 at 11:35 PM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 07:38 PM
Oops messed something up. Will re-post when I get it fixed.

Last edited by stamina; 11-20-2016 at 07:49 PM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 07:50 PM
I accidentally was pulling old hands. This update included old sessions already covered. Need to update real quick. Sorry didn't see you post DougL, I would not have deleted my post if I had known someone just read it. Sorry about that.

But yes, no analysis of the posted tilt hands required, they were all just emotional tilts. (Not making a "play". Just angry) Have to post the tilt hands so I can see them. Will update my post shortly.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 07:50 PM
This thread is in the wrong forum, it's a diary of a someone splashing around in stakes they don't belong at, as opposed to a beginner engaged in improving their game.

Thanks for contributing to the poker economy OP but this should be in PG&C or somewhere else.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 07:58 PM
You're right. I don't mod here, or I'd be willing to move it. Stamina, you need a Poker Goals and Challenges thread or a blog (on the blog forum). That way, it makes total sense to keep a running list of big beats, tilt hands, etc. Strategy forums are for strategy posts, not "Have to post the tilt hands so I can see them."
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 08:12 PM
Ok, quick spot check after only 1,500 hands at 100NL 6max zoom. Will spot check some statistics real quick, post my best and worst hands of the day. Chart:



1. Preflop aggression

Previous/Current
BTN 0.72 / 0.79
CO 0.72 / 0.72
MP 0.76 / 0.71
EP 0.77 / 0.48
BB 0.32 / 0.28
SB 0.45 / 0.58

Analysis: Statistically speaking it looks the same, maybe we can say we have have been playing less aggressive in early position. Would have to do a separate analysis on SB/BB, I am skipping those statistics for now.

2. Positional awareness.

Previous/Current
BTN 21.25 / 18.97
CO 18.55 / 17.90
MP 18.94 / 14.40
EP 17.95 / 11.39
BB 23.04 / 18.40
SB 17.78 / 11.65

Analysis: The position awareness chart is looking better than before.


Notable session hands:

Hand #1: During playing this my gut said villain has aces. People turn over all sorts of hands in 100NL Zoom but my read was more towards Aces which means based on Villain's stack size this was a bad call pre-flop. You could just say I got what I deserved with this beat. Flop play was a bit of slow play giving a free look for the flush draw. Against a short stack you don't want to give a free card here. In deep vs. deep stack you might give a free card if you are making a play.

Now on the flip side if I had not spiked my K I was ready to make the fold, but still, a bad play.


PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 42.32 BB (VPIP: 26.05, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 4.32, Hands: 34,028)
BTN: 121.48 BB (VPIP: 30.31, PFR: 19.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 36,087)
SB: 88.85 BB (VPIP: 30.04, PFR: 13.24, 3Bet Preflop: 5.25, Hands: 36,000)
BB: 336.72 BB (VPIP: 29.32, PFR: 6.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.31, Hands: 36,204)
Hero (UTG): 216.66 BB
MP: 349.59 BB (VPIP: 23.54, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 3.50, Hands: 34,416)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 5.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 17.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 12 BB

Flop: (36 BB, 2 players) 6 3 K
SB bets 36 BB, Hero calls 36 BB

Turn: (108 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 35.35 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 35.35 BB

River: (178.7 BB, 2 players) A

SB shows A A (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows K K (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 18%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
SB wins 175.7 BB



Hand #2: This hand is straight up emotional tilt after losing with that KK hand. This hand was a few orbits after the Hand #1 above.

PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 48.5 BB (VPIP: 21.99, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 5.58, Hands: 34,573)
MP: 103.15 BB (VPIP: 23.54, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 34,421)
CO: 157.22 BB (VPIP: 26.05, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 4.32, Hands: 34,032)
BTN: 175.45 BB (VPIP: 30.31, PFR: 19.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 36,092)
Hero (SB): 164.7 BB
BB: 160.2 BB (VPIP: 29.32, PFR: 6.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.31, Hands: 36,208)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 6 7 4
Hero bets 7 BB, BTN raises to 17 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

Turn: (41 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 41 BB, BTN raises to 155.45 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 120 BB


Hand #3: Tilt. You are in early position with not much vs. a short stack. Short stacks at Zoom typically will not shove without a strong hand. So basically you are flushing money down the toilet with this play as there's not much you can hit where you'll get paid vs the range you expect on a short stack (AJo through AA, small pocket pairs, broadway when limping). Also this is a bad hand and a bad position to be making any sort of play. I would normally only call 3BB or less if this is a multi-way pot where everybody is limping and even then it's tough to play. This hand goes against being aware of position, aggressiveness, and starting hand charts. And also I didn't even bother making a read on the opponent which it's pretty obvious a flopped straight is well within his range here, along with 2 pair.


PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 57.52 BB (VPIP: 21.96, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 5.63, Hands: 35,207)
MP: 102.75 BB (VPIP: 23.48, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 3.56, Hands: 35,046)
CO: 71.35 BB (VPIP: 26.01, PFR: 17.54, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 34,641)
BTN: 236.62 BB (VPIP: 30.28, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 36,705)
SB: 53.31 BB (VPIP: 30.02, PFR: 13.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.24, Hands: 36,616)
Hero (BB): 180.95 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 8

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, UTG calls 4.5 BB

Flop: (11.5 BB, 2 players) J 9 T
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (11.5 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 11.5 BB, UTG raises to 23 BB, Hero raises to 80.5 BB, UTG calls 29.02 BB and is all-in

River: (115.54 BB, 2 players) Q

UTG shows K Q (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A 8 (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
UTG wins 112.54 BB



Hand #4: No analysis needed, this is just tilt. Making a play with T9s is o.k. with another deeper stack, but you missed your flop so it's time to fold. (I'm not a fan of a flop C-bet in this position, villain is repping strong in my opinion and that is a bad board for me)


PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 57.52 BB (VPIP: 21.96, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 5.63, Hands: 35,207)
MP: 102.75 BB (VPIP: 23.48, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 3.56, Hands: 35,046)
CO: 71.35 BB (VPIP: 26.01, PFR: 17.54, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 34,641)
BTN: 236.62 BB (VPIP: 30.28, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 36,705)
SB: 53.31 BB (VPIP: 30.02, PFR: 13.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.24, Hands: 36,616)
Hero (BB): 180.95 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 8

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, UTG calls 4.5 BB

Flop: (11.5 BB, 2 players) J 9 T
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (11.5 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 11.5 BB, UTG raises to 23 BB, Hero raises to 80.5 BB, UTG calls 29.02 BB and is all-in

River: (115.54 BB, 2 players) Q

UTG shows K Q (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A 8 (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
UTG wins 112.54 BB



Session analysis: Your basic statis look a hare better, your tilt is leaking badly, if you controlled your tilt then this was a breakeven session. But you didn't so it was a losing session! Pay more attention to detail, at least put the opponent on a range based on your gut read, and make your decisions accordingly based on that range!


DougL sorry about re-posting I had accidentally included some hands from awhile back when making reports in PT4.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote

      
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