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When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance

11-20-2016 , 08:14 PM
Yes I agree it should be moved to the Poker Goals forum. Is there a way to flag it to a mod that it needs moved? I suggested it a few times but of course I don't expect that suggestion to be noticed by a mod by happenstance when the suggestion is buried deep in this post. Maybe there is a way to flag this with a suggestion attached to it?
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 08:20 PM
This typical play at 100NL 6max zoom at Ignition.


PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 221.39 BB (VPIP: 26.03, PFR: 17.55, 3Bet Preflop: 4.32, Hands: 34,126)
Hero (BTN): 136.76 BB
SB: 94.5 BB (VPIP: 30.01, PFR: 13.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.25, Hands: 36,091)
BB: 79.94 BB (VPIP: 29.30, PFR: 6.36, 3Bet Preflop: 5.30, Hands: 36,304)
UTG: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 16.45, 3Bet Preflop: 5.58, Hands: 34,672)
MP: 98.65 BB (VPIP: 23.55, PFR: 16.47, 3Bet Preflop: 3.52, Hands: 34,511)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 4

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) 7 4 A
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets 14.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 14.5 BB

Turn: (41.5 BB, 2 players) 6
CO checks, Hero bets 24.75 BB, CO calls 24.75 BB

River: (91 BB, 2 players) 7
CO checks, Hero bets 11.71 BB, CO calls 11.71 BB

Hero shows 7 4 (Full House, Sevens full of Fours)
(Pre 20%, Flop 71%, Turn 82%)
CO mucks T T (Two Pair, Tens and Sevens)
(Pre 80%, Flop 29%, Turn 18%)
Hero wins 111.42 BB



PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 105.15 BB
SB: 102.34 BB (VPIP: 30.04, PFR: 13.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.25, Hands: 36,525)
BB: 549.48 BB (VPIP: 29.28, PFR: 6.34, 3Bet Preflop: 5.28, Hands: 36,736)
UTG: 121.22 BB (VPIP: 21.96, PFR: 16.45, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 35,110)
MP: 64.67 BB (VPIP: 23.49, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 3.55, Hands: 34,952)
CO: 16.79 BB (VPIP: 26.00, PFR: 17.55, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 34,549)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 4

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, fold, BB calls 4.5 BB

Flop: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 3 2 4
BB checks, Hero bets 13.5 BB, BB raises to 543.98 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 86.15 BB and is all-in

Turn: (210.8 BB, 2 players) 8

River: (210.8 BB, 2 players) 7

Hero shows 3 4 (Two Pair, Fours and Threes)
(Pre 39%, Flop 83%, Turn 91%)
BB shows 9 A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 61%, Flop 17%, Turn 9%)
Hero wins 207.8 BB
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 08:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
Yes I agree it should be moved to the Poker Goals forum. Is there a way to flag it to a mod that it needs moved? I suggested it a few times but of course I don't expect that suggestion to be noticed by a mod by happenstance when the suggestion is buried deep in this post. Maybe there is a way to flag this with a suggestion attached to it?
Yup - the red triangle to the left of every post. Someone's already done it for you, which is why I'm here.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
11-20-2016 , 09:49 PM
Woohoo Bobo Fett to the rescue!
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 04:18 AM
Back in the saddle after a long, long break. I played 10k hands, then came back and re-read my original post - my advice to myself was pretty good, with regards to identifying my main leaks.

First graph is all the history I have from PT4:



Second graph is my first 10k hands back in the saddle:



Trying to get at least 1,000 hands down every day, preferrably closer to 1,500. Will see how the next 5k-10k hands look. I already had two massive tilt sessions, at -6BI each, in the most recent 10k hands, costing me around 12BI's total. Managing tilt is really my main focus at this point. Strategy wise, I am just playing TAG (emphasis on the tight, and emphasis on the aggressive). Right now, I am VPIP/PFR 16/10. Before, a couple years ago, I was running 25/20 in position and 20/16 out of position.

I would like to get another 10k hands in, without a single tilt session, and see how things look. Tilt seems to follow one of two scenarios: dropping 3-4 BI's back-to-back (talking within 5 minutes on Zone) to runner-runner, and/or followed up by showing PF on Aces 3 or 4 times in a row. (Usually happens twice when I have KK and QQ, and after that, I just start smashing the all-in button out of anger). If I suffer a bad beat, I keep telling myself how thankful I need to be that the bad beat happened - bad beats are a sure sign that the game is juicy. Without bad beats, it means I'm the worst player at the table.

You can see both of my violent downswings followed some beats (where the green and yellow lines come together signifies a bad beat, followed by a violent tilt session where I am throwing chips out the window). Would probably be running on a 10BB/100 heater, without the two massive tilts. IF... If I can get tilt under control, the next challenge would probably be surviving cold cards (when my heater is over - I have been given hand after hand in this first 10k) and learning how to play when Zone God isn't throwing me Aces every third hand.

Last edited by stamina; 07-06-2018 at 04:31 AM. Reason: Note on the meaning of bad beats
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 05:11 AM
Basics analysis:

1. PFR/VPIP

BTN - 63.90%
CO - 60.57%
MP - 61.37%
EP - 58.13%
BB - 28.02%
SB - 42.48%

2. VPIP by position

BTN - 16.72
CO - 16.24
MP - 16.70
EP - 15.16
BB - 16.36
SB - 14.97

3. Attempts to steal

Att to Steal: 11.92%
Steal winrate: Different ways of looking at this, not sure how I calculated it before.

4. Defending blinds

BB: -19.96 BB/100
SB: -16.30 BB/100

5. Heads-up play

Heads-up winrate: +24.52 BB/100

6. Multi-way pots

Multi-way winrate: +13.43 BB/100

7. Pocket pairs

VPIP% with pocket pairs: 95.41%
PFR% with pocket pairs: 44.91%
Winrate of 77 through 22: 73.60 BB/100
Winrate of AA through 88: 508.11 BB/100

8. Suited connectors

Winrate for suited connectors: 166.66 BB/100
VPIP% for suited connectors: 59.68%

9. Unsuited connectors

Winrate for unsuited connectors: -33.96BB/100
VPIP% for unsuited connectors: 14.32%

I've gotten even worse at playing unsuited connectors. Or maybe I'm not playing enough of them. Or both.

10. and 11. - Not calculated.



I'm not exactly sure these statistics are meaningful for me at this point, as I need to dive deeper. I decided to update the statistics for posterity, anyway, so as to compare my initial 50k hands with my most recent 10k hands. There's definitely a statistical difference in pre-flop strategy. I can't say if it's good or bad, just that it's changed.

Last edited by stamina; 07-06-2018 at 05:19 AM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 12:56 PM
I re-read my first post and it's the only important post of this whole thread. In these last 10k hands, I've played a very tight starting hand range, but have played it much more aggressively pre-flop (3-betting to 15BB or more), and much more aggressively post-flop, while also using the fold button sometimes when villain jams and I feel like I am behind. I'm also playing flop very aggressively with strong hands and am inducing all-ons on the flop more often with the best hand. I have been able to surpass the 2-3BI cieling, have avoided stacking off more often, and have even had a few +6-7BI tables. Using the fold button in key situations has prevented me from stacking off.

I do still suffer from tilt which has caused my winrate to drop from 12BB/100 down to about 5.5BB/100. Current strategy seems to be working at the moment, so we'll work on sticking with it, while working dilligently on recognizing tilt and getting away from the table.

Nothing to do now but grind another 10k hands and see how it goes.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
I'm not exactly sure these statistics are meaningful for me at this point, as I need to dive deeper. I decided to update the statistics for posterity, anyway, so as to compare my initial 50k hands with my most recent 10k hands. There's definitely a statistical difference in pre-flop strategy. I can't say if it's good or bad, just that it's changed.
Can you post your winrate by position? If you're playing ~16% VPIP in the button and 15-16%VPIP from EP/MP, you're not considering position at all, or more concerned w/ raising first in than w/ being in position post-flop, which might explain why your winrate w/o showdown is tanking your overall profits.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 05:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mycorrhizae
Can you post your winrate by position? If you're playing ~16% VPIP in the button and 15-16%VPIP from EP/MP, you're not considering position at all, or more concerned w/ raising first in than w/ being in position post-flop, which might explain why your winrate w/o showdown is tanking your overall profits.
Your gut is leading you to the right place and is something I have beem thinking about but failed to address in my posts last night. I'll post winrate by position next time I am home.

My gut says you are right. If I recall, I have felt very out of place in middle position lately, lots of PF raising or 3bets in middle on my part, getting called behind a lot, and then my reading skills and reading of villain hand ranges are not strong enough to survive the post-flop while I am OOP. This is regardless of whether I hit or air the flop, I feel like a fish out of water in these situations and my play is not good.

I appreciate your attention and I think you are on to something and I'll post stats later.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
Your gut is leading you to the right place and is something I have beem thinking about but failed to address in my posts last night. I'll post winrate by position next time I am home.

My gut says you are right. If I recall, I have felt very out of place in middle position lately, lots of PF raising or 3bets in middle on my part, getting called behind a lot, and then my reading skills and reading of villain hand ranges are not strong enough to survive the post-flop while I am OOP. This is regardless of whether I hit or air the flop, I feel like a fish out of water in these situations and my play is not good.

I appreciate your attention and I think you are on to something and I'll post stats later.
I think this could be due to the spiraling effects of poor preflop hand selection, disregarding your skill post-flop OOP.

If you're playing the same range of hands from MP/EP that you are from the Button/CO, there are multiple players to your left who can flat you or isolate with position post-flop, and barrel any amount of equity when you miss your range to get you off your hand. Their 3bet isolating range will have better equity than your range on flops you might hit, and pots you get into where 1-2 villains flatted IP, you have pretty poor implied odds because they will have control over the size of the pot, and barreling OOP is risky.

All of that is given that your RFI/VPIP is 75%+ from EP/MP where it should be. Looking at your PFR/VPIP, you must be limp/calling too often from EP/MP, as well as the CO which is going to cause you some problems and put you in a lot of unnecessarily difficult positions.

Last edited by mycorrhizae; 07-06-2018 at 08:39 PM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mycorrhizae
I think this could be due to the spiraling effects of poor preflop hand selection, disregarding your skill post-flop OOP.

If you're playing the same range of hands from MP/EP that you are from the Button/CO, there are multiple players to your left who can flat you or isolate with position post-flop, and barrel any amount of equity when you miss your range to get you off your hand. Their 3bet isolating range will have better equity than your range on flops you might hit, and pots you get into where 1-2 villains flatted IP, you have pretty poor implied odds because they will have control over the size of the pot, and barreling OOP is risky.
Yes, yes and yes. I like the way you put this. Sessions where I play the middle positions more carefully (think more carefully about who's ahead and who's behind, think harder about the starting selection, etc.) and try to control the pot size (keep it smaller) tend to go more well. Sessions where I play the middle more aggressively with a similar hand range to that of late positions (i.e. such as playing AQo aggressively in early position) don't go well.

Here's those stats:

BTN: 48.71 BB/100
CO: 33.19 BB/100
MP: 13.69 BB/100
EP: -28.58 BB/100
BB: -19.96 BB/100
SB: -16.30 BB/100

Silly question, but if I just folded 100% of the time in EP, would my winrate improve for EP to 00 BB/100, and my overall winrate improve by 1/6th of -28.58 BB/100? Seems like I either need to figure this out and improve it quick, or just fold 100% of hands in EP in the mean time.

Last edited by stamina; 07-06-2018 at 08:34 PM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-06-2018 , 08:31 PM
Wow you really helped out a lot - that is a huge glaring leak right there in the stats. -28.58. Also wondering how much of my tilt comes from playing bad like this and then getting angry about it lol. Could kill two birds with one stone if I work this out.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-07-2018 , 02:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stamina
if I just folded 100% of the time in EP, would my winrate improve for EP to 00 BB/100, and my overall winrate improve by 1/6th of -28.58 BB/100?
It would improve your EP winrate to 0 and your winrate overall if you stopped playing any hands from EP, there's some chance it would affect your table image on the margins but it's unlikely anyone would notice without a huge sample.

I would just tighten your EP range up drastically, NIT it up at like 8%VPIP or smtn, and do some hand reviews and see what types of situations you're ending up in from EP that are making you uncomfortable even w/ premium hands. Once you feel confident you're not spewing from there, you can think about opening it back up a bit.

I'm curious though, what's your open raising range from every position? is it different than your calling range from those spots?
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-30-2018 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mycorrhizae
It would improve your EP winrate to 0 and your winrate overall if you stopped playing any hands from EP, there's some chance it would affect your table image on the margins but it's unlikely anyone would notice without a huge sample.

I would just tighten your EP range up drastically, NIT it up at like 8%VPIP or smtn, and do some hand reviews and see what types of situations you're ending up in from EP that are making you uncomfortable even w/ premium hands. Once you feel confident you're not spewing from there, you can think about opening it back up a bit.

I'm curious though, what's your open raising range from every position? is it different than your calling range from those spots?
Sorry for the delay in responding. Since I last posted, about 10 days ago, I went on a mega-tilt (dropped about 15BI's in about an hour), took a week off. Got back on the bandwagon this last weekend. Ran up 7k hands over the weekend.

Good question above. In position (BTN and CO), I rarely just call - I typically raise, 3-bet, or fold. In EP, I found myself flatting, or flatting then calling the 3B, or raising and then getting re-raised and just calling their 3B. So, as I started up again this last weekend, I played about the same I've been playing, except I put some extra thought into playing those MP and EP positions. I cut down my hand range, especially in EP, and got on my big boy pants and tried to play aggressive from that position.

Here are the stats for the last 7k hands:

BTN: 51.40 BB/100
CO: 15.42 BB/100
MP: 19.05 BB/100
EP: 11.09 BB/100
BB: 10.67 BB/100
SB: -26.25 BB/100

BTN: 17.87/12.79
CO: 15.60/10.10
MP: 14.54/9.40
EP: 12.65/6.61
BB: 16.22/5.53
SB: 14.58/6.12

I focused on trying to use the fold button in MP and EP. I focused on making sure I was using a different starting hand range on EP, and also spent extra time thinking carefully when playing in that position (looking around at stack sizes, raises, exactly which position was raising, etc. etc.).

This chart is just 7k hands from this last weekend.



This chart is for all of 2018, it includes only some of the tilt from last week (I tilted so bad I took a week away and forgot to download all the hands... which really stinks, this chart should look even worse than it does).



I dropped about 6 BI's after these charts were created, it was the late night Saturday crowd (totally insane action), loosened my range to try to get in on the last night action, but loosened it too much and got edged out in the 500NL game. (Lost AQo to AKo, lost JJ to QQ, etc. etc.). So I still had a really decent session over the last 7k hands, decided to take a breather for a couple of days and regroup mentally. Was just exhausting to get in 7k hands. I thought for sure I could grind out 10k hands in a weekend, but I was pretty tired.

Kudos to myself: avoided tilt after some really nast beats. (It's easy to drop 3 BI's in Zone in literally 5 or 6 minutes on beats and then just lose your ****). Recognized tilt by the end of the 7k hand session and pulled the plug before it got too nasty. Lost probably 3 BI's, again I had loosened my range as the tables were getting juicy, maybe a bit too much, lost by a hair on each one, but knew mentally that it was time to go if I was getting edge out by my opponents, better to recognize that they were beating me fair and square and that I wasn't likely to start playing "A" game after such a long session.

Will enjoy the sunshine for a couple of days and see about getting back on later this week. Will see what happens. I am happy that in my first 50k hands, I was a losing player, but in my last 17k hands, it looks more like a BE stretch, and am also happy that I recognize some leaks from the BE stretch. Now this could just be running lucky, who knows, so all I can do is keep focusing on my major leaks and grind out some volume and see what happens next.

Last edited by stamina; 07-30-2018 at 01:24 AM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-30-2018 , 01:20 AM
Drop down man, judging by your hh's you have horrible strategy and mental leaks that decent 10nl players don't have. Playing 500nl the variance will even out quickly.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-30-2018 , 01:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuxxx
Drop down man, judging by your hh's you have horrible strategy and mental leaks that decent 10nl players don't have. Playing 500nl the variance will even out quickly.
Hi Nuxxx. Yes those HH's are from several years ago. Tons of huge leaks, mental and in play, etc. etc. Been off poker for a year or two. Coming back to it this year, my play and strategy has changed quite a bit from back then.

Maybe I would say for anyone else seeing this post, please check the posting date of the posts? I'm not sure how to stop this thread from getting hijacked by lots of railbirds coming in and saying I'm horrible (which is perfectly accurate if they are just looking at the first 2 or 3 posts from a couple years ago :-) ). Totally accurate but not pertinent to today's discussion at all :-) However if you guys have any specific questions I'd be grateful to dive into my pot of data and share and look for improvement. I just wish to keep things productive. "Go down in stakes" and "you suck" are not things I'm really going to respond to from here on in. :-)

Last edited by stamina; 07-30-2018 at 01:39 AM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-30-2018 , 01:45 AM
Crap I should clarify. I play mostly 200NL. I only have 2k hands at 500NL. I'll open up a 500NL shot on Saturday nights (mainly if I am in the middle of a 10BI upswing at 200NL) because people are playing crazy in there. Otherwise most of my volume is 200NL. I wouldn't be playing 500NL regularly with my BR, I would get wiped out on a bad day. My bad.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-30-2018 , 01:47 AM
Maybe make a new thread? Most people will just skim through the thread and see the graphs and hh's then see you talking about nl500. There's nothing between then and now so it's just horribly confusing.

I wish you no ill will and I hope my explanation makes sense as to why I said drop down, thread confused me. All the best

Last edited by nuxxx; 07-30-2018 at 01:55 AM.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote
07-30-2018 , 03:48 AM
Absolutely and thanks for being so friendly and apologies on my end for being snippy too. Need a two day vacay from poker lol!

I will close out this thread in another week or so. This is basically make or break. If I can't hold steady for say another 10k-20k hands without tilting off my BR then it would be a clear sign that I haven't matured enough to keep playing.
When up is down, losing rec player insanity, and variance Quote

      
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