The purpose of this thread is to bet on golf.

Starting bankroll is $5,000.

I've got 250 bets currently open on both the Euro and PGA tours. I had some three ball bets which settled today:

14 3-ball bets
Record: 5-9
P&L: +$44.17

Biggest winner:
Ryan Armour @ +260
3 Balls

Patrick Reed / Ryan Armour / Brendan Steele

1 BET x $59.45 @ +260

Bet Amount: $59.45
Paid out: $214.02

Biggest Loser:
Jonas Blixt @ +225
3 Balls

Brandt Snedeker / Chris Stroud / Jonas Blixt

1 BET x $60.21 @ +225

Bet Amount: $60.21

Bets settled so far

3 Balls - Sebastian Soderberg @ +320 - Lost - Bet $98.53
3 Balls - Marc Leishman @ +180 - Won - Bet $28.81 - Returned $80.67
3 Balls - Max Homa @ +220 - Lost - Bet $29.74
3 Balls - J.J. Spaun @ +260 - Lost - Bet $33.19
3 Balls - Bronson Burgoon @ +260 - Won - Bet $11.83 - Returned $42.59
3 Balls - J.T. Poston @ +138 - Lost - Bet $22.05
3 Balls - Lucas Glover @ +138 - Lost - Bet $19.25
3 Balls - Vaughn Taylor @ +225 - Won - Bet $5.61 - Returned $18.23
3 Balls - Ryan Armour @ +260 - Won - Bet $59.45 - Returned $214.02
3 Balls - Tony Finau @ +250 - Lost - Bet $43.16
3 Balls - Patrick Cantlay @ +150 - Won - Bet $14.34 - Returned $35.85
3 Balls - Troy Merrit @ +200 - Lost - Bet $6.03
3 Balls - Jonas Blixt @ +225 - Lost - Bet $60.21
3 Balls - Sung Kang @ +210 - Lost - Bet $2.43
3 Balls - Hank Lebioda @ +250 - Lost - Bet $11.09

Total - (5-10) - Bet $445.72 - Returned $391.36
P&L = ($54.36), ROI = -12.2%

subbed, would love to hear more about your methodology

Well this is different, GL bro.

Basically I just have a model based on historical data and I'm combining that with Kelly criterion betting. I've done some backtesting on the model and I'm reasonably confident in it but I don't really know if it is profitable so we'll see.

Thanks.

----

As a matter of housekeeping, I originally intended to start with a $10k BR and a more conservative betting style, but then I decided to switch to $5k and more aggressive. As a consequence of that, I actually have slightly more than $5k in play this week (like $5,800) but I'm just going to add this week's P&L to $5k and that will be my BR for next week.

I've seen a lot of dfs guys go busto with kelly criterion.

I'd be careful going that route. It's not designed for something that's typically -EV. It's meant for traditional investing, where a monkey throwing darts at a wall will still likely yield a positive return in the long run. Applying something that was never intended for these purposes usually ends poorly.

If you have great reasons behind unsing KC, again, I'd love to hear your argument for it.

Are there any sites that don't offer -115 on h2h golf matchups?

I have yet to find one that does, at -115 you have to win 53.5% of h2h to break even, I don't think it's beatable

Well obviously it only works if you are +EV :P . There is no strategy that will stop me from going busto if my bets are -EV.

The vig is pretty high, but sometimes the lines can look pretty far off.

But yeah, I'm definitely not 100% confident it is beatable.

Edit: Also, in my limited time looking at this, I find that the futures odds look to have way more value than the H2H odds. Also, the Euro tour odds seem to have more value than PGA Tour, due to the players being less known and there probably being less betting on that market generally.

Just waiting for this playoff to finish in the BMW International Open and will post full Euro Tour results for week 1. Playoff is Pavan vs Fitzpatrick. I bet $2 (!) on Pavan at +10000 so a Pavan win would be worth $202.

Edit: Success!

This is my point exactly.

Sports betting is a series of binary outcomes. It's either a total loss or a gain. Kelly Criterion was never designed for that. I promise you, if you follow KC, you're busto within 6 months.

It was never designed for investments where a total loss is the expected outcome and it'll have you risk far more of your roll than what would ever be able to survive even the most minute downswing. Even if you are +EV, you'll go through many downswings that Kelly won't be prepared to accommodate.

If you bought a collection of stocks and funds and did really, really badly, you'd probably lose about 15% over the course of month. In sports betting you can have 100% losses over a single afternoon. They are horses of different colors and can't be lumped together using the same bankroll strategies.

I'm watching a ship set out to sea without life vests and you're telling me it's alright because you brought parachutes.

BMW International Open 2019
---
SUMMARY OF BELOW
Bet: $3,257.93
Returned: $4,198.10
P&L: $940.17

RUNNING TOTALS
Bet : $3,703.65
Returned: $4,589.46
P&L: $885.81
ROI: +19.3%

---
Outright Winner - Sergio Garcia @ +10000 - Lost - Bet $9.56
Outright Winner - Masahiro Kawamura @ +20000 - Lost - Bet $6.44
Outright Winner - Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ +9000 - Lost - Bet $11.75
72 Hole Match-up - Rafa Cabrera Bello @ +100 (v Joost Luiten) - Won - Bet $24.00 - Returned $48.00
72 Hole Match-up - Matthew Fitzpatrick @ -111 (v Martin Kaymer) - Won - Bet $60.00 - Returned $114.00
72 Hole Match-up - Sergio Garcia @ +100 (v Matt Wallace) - Lost - Bet $76.00
Top 5 - Kristian Krogh Johannessen @ +20000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 10 - Deyen Lawson @ +8000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 5 - Tom Murray @ +15000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 20 - Shiv Kapur @ +1400 - Lost - Bet $5.00
Top 10 - Shiv Kapur @ +4000 - Lost - Bet $4.00
Top 5 - Shiv Kapur @ +10000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 20 - Matthew Nixon @ +1100 - Lost - Bet $55.00
Top 10 - Matthew Nixon @ +2800 - Lost - Bet $24.00
Top 5 - Matthew Nixon @ +10000 - Lost - Bet $19.00
Outright Winner - Matthew Nixon @ +50000 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 10 - Jinho Choi @ +4000 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 5 - Junho Choi @ +10000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 5 - Dimitrios Papadatos @ +8000 - Lost - Bet $3.00
Top 5 - Paul Paterson @ +8000 - Lost - Bet $5.00
Top 20 - Niklas Lemke @ +1000 - Lost - Bet $64.00
Top 10 - Niklas Lemke @ +2800 - Lost - Bet $35.00
Top 5 - Niklas Lemke @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $19.00
Outright Winner - Niklas Lemke @ +35000 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 20 - Gavin Moynihan @ +1000 - Lost - Bet $44.00
Top 10 - Gavin Moynihan @ +2500 - Lost - Bet $20.00
Top 5 - Gavin Moynihan @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $12.00
Top 5 - Matthieu Pavon @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 20 - David Drysdale @ +1000 - Lost - Bet $20.00
Top 10 - David Drysdale @ +2500 - Lost - Bet $5.00
Top 5 - David Drysdale @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 20 - Anton Karlsson @ +800 - Lost - Bet $25.00
Top 10 - Anton Karlsson @ +2200 - Lost - Bet $22.00
Top 5 - Anton Karlsson @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $19.00
Outright Winner - Anton Karlsson @ +30000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 20 - Alejandro Canizares @ +800 - Lost - Bet $18.00
Top 10 - Alejandro Canizares @ +2200 - Lost - Bet $17.00
Top 5 - Alejandro Canizares @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $5.00
Top 20 - Adrien Saddier @ +1000 - Lost - Bet $42.00
Top 10 - Adrien Saddier @ +2500 - Lost - Bet $21.00
Top 5 - Adrien Saddier @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $14.00
Outright Winner - Adrien Saddier @ +30000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 5 - Sebastian Soderberg @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $4.00
Top 20 - Kalle Samooja @ +800 - Lost - Bet $23.00
Top 10 - Kalle Samooja @ +2200 - Lost - Bet $20.00
Top 5 - Kalle Samooja @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $8.00
Top 20 - Justin Walters @ +700 - Lost - Bet $70.00
Top 10 - Justin Walters @ +1800 - Lost - Bet $42.00
Top 5 - Justin Walters @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $27.00
Outright Winner - Justin Walters @ +25000 - Lost - Bet $3.00
Top 20 - Grant Forrest @ +750 - Lost - Bet $11.00
Top 10 - Grant Forrest @ +2000 - Lost - Bet $13.00
Top 5 - Grant Forrest @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $8.00
Top 20 - Callum Shinkwin @ +900 - Won - Bet $27.00 - Returned $270.00
Top 10 - Callum Shinkwin @ +2500 - Lost - Bet $24.00
Top 5 - Callum Shinkwin @ +6600 - Lost - Bet $16.00
Top 10 - Ashun Wu @ +2200 - Lost - Bet $4.00
Top 5 - Ashun Wu @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 10 - Nicolas Colsaerts @ +1600 - Lost - Bet $9.00
Outright Winner - Nicolas Colsaerts @ +20000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 10 - Masahiro Kawamura @ +2200 - Lost - Bet $0.18
Top 20 - Masahiro Kawamura @ +850 - Lost - Bet $162.00
Top 10 - Masahiro Kawamura @ +2200 - Lost - Bet $68.00
Top 5 - Masahiro Kawamura @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $48.00
Outright Winner - Masahiro Kawamura @ +20000 - Lost - Bet $7.00
Top 10 - Louis de Jager @ +1800 - Lost - Bet $9.00
Top 5 - Louis de Jager @ +5000 - Lost - Bet $15.00
Top 20 - Gaganjeet Bhullar @ +600 - Lost - Bet $10.00
Top 10 - Gaganjeet Bhullar @ +1600 - Lost - Bet $21.00
Top 5 - Gaganjeet Bhullar @ +4000 - Lost - Bet $15.00
Outright Winner - Gaganjeet Bhullar @ +20000 - Lost - Bet $0.00 ($1 Free Bet)
Top 20 - Bradley Dredge @ +650 - Lost - Bet $47.00
Top 10 - Bradley Dredge @ +1600 - Lost - Bet $26.00
Top 5 - Bradley Dredge @ +4000 - Lost - Bet $18.00
Outright Winner - Bradley Dredge @ +20000 - Lost - Bet $1.00
Top 20 - Robert Rock @ +550 - Lost - Bet $53.00
Top 10 - Robert Rock @ +1400 - Lost - Bet $32.00
Top 5 - Robert Rock @ +3300 - Lost - Bet $18.00
Top 20 - Joachim B. Hansen @ +650 - Won - Bet $4.00 - Returned $30.00
Top 10 - Joachim B. Hansen @ +1600 - Lost - Bet $8.00
Top 5 - Joachim B. Hansen @ +4000 - Lost - Bet $10.00
Top 5 - Thongchai Jaidee @ +2800 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 10 - Scott Jamieson @ +1100 - Lost - Bet $2.00
Top 5 - Scott Jamieson @ +2500 - Lost - Bet $3.00
Top 20 - Maximilian Kieffer @ +500 - Lost - Bet $26.00
Top 10 - Same @ +1200 - Lost - Bet $18.00
Top 5 - Same @ +2800 - Lost $1.00
Top 5 - Same @ +2800 - Lost $0.00 ($5.00 free bet)
Top 5 - Same @ +2800 - Lost $0.00 ($5.00 free bet)
Top 5 - Haydn Porteous @ +4000 - Lost $12.00
Top 20 - Jason Scrivener @ +450 - Lost $110.00
Top 10 - Same @ +1100 - Lost $66.00
Top 5 - Same @ +2500 - Lost $36.00
Winner - Same @ +12500 - Lost $5.00
Top 20 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ +550 - Won - Bet $87.00 - Returned $565.50
Top 10 - Same @ +1400 - Won - Bet $62.00 - Returned $930.00
Top 5 - Same @ +3300 - Lost $35.00
Top 20 - Ashley Chesters @ +550 - Lost $65.00
Top 10 - Same @ +1200 - Lost $20.00
Top 5 - Same @ +2800 - Lost $11.00
Top 20 - George Coetzee @ +450 - Lost $3.00
Top 10 - Same @ +1000 - Lost $1.00
Top 5 - Same @ +2500 - Lost $10.00
Top 20 - Andrea Pavan @ +425 - Won - Bet $96.00 - Returned $504.00
Top 10 - Same @ +1000 - Won - Bet $64.00 - Returned $704.00
Top 5 - Same @ +2200 - Won - Bet $34.00 - Returned $782.00
Winner - Same @ +10000 - Won - Bet $2.00 - Returned $202.00
Top 20 - Sam Crocker @ +350 - Lost $27.00
Top 10 - Same @ +800 - Lost $16.00
Top 5 - Same @ +1800 - Lost $12.00
Top 5 - Lucas Herbert @ +2000 - Lost $1.00
Top 20 - Tom Lewis @ +300 - Lost $53.00
Top 10 - Same @ +700 - Lost $52.00
Top 5 - Same @ +1600 - Lost $39.00
Top 20 - Matthias Schwab @ +320 - Won - Bet $9.00 - Returned $37.80
Top 5 - Same @ +1600 - Lost $6.00
Top 10 - Fabrizio Zanotti @ +650 - Lost $2.00
Top 5 - Same @ +1400 - Lost $6.00
Top 20 - Jhonattan Vegas @ +230 - Lost $280.00
Top 10 - Same @ +500 - Lost $194.00
Top 5 - Same @ +1100 - Lost $141.00
Winner - Same @ +5000 - Lost $31.00
Winner - Same @ +5000 - Lost $0.00 ($5.00 free bet)
Winner - Same @ +5000 - Lost $0.00 ($5.00 free bet)
Top 10 - David Lipsky @ +500 - Lost $3.00
Top 5 - Same @ +1000 - Lost $4.00
Winner - Same @ +5000 - Lost $3.00
Top 10 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello @ +260 - Won - Bet $3.00 - Returned $10.80

nicely done

Didn't mean to phrase earlier statement so harshly and you do seem to be diversifying well enough, I'm just saying I've seen a number of people use KC and it never ended well.

I think you should consider something a little less volatile is all. I'm otherwise going to be railing you and cheering you on.

It'd be cool if you posted before the event finished though.

Good luck and keep it up

Wat? That is literally exactly what the Kelly Criterion is for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

See above. Total loss / total gain scenarios are literally where the Kelly Criterion is defined. Its application to the stock market is an adaptation of this, not the other way around.

The % of bankroll bet is a function of the probability of success. For example, even in the case where we believe something is 0.1% (1 / 1000) to happen and we are offered amazing odds of 3000 to 1, we would only bet 0.03% of the bankroll.

No offense taken.

Re: bolded, I am shading my expected odds towards the odds offered as well to make it a bit more conservative (i.e. if I think something is 80% to happen, and the odds imply 70%, I will bet as if the true probability is 75%).

Also I do plan to post the bets before the tournament in the future.

Just threw down 2 bets on 2-balls for this afternoon (tie = loss btw)
Zack Sucher v Roberto Diaz (+115) - $48
Martin Laird v Patrick Cantlay (-167) - $83 + $15 free bet

well don't i look like an idiot


I'll read up on it more now - but I do suspect they used the stock market variation of it given these were all finance people who I saw use it

very intriqued though and will spend this weekend having a blind date with Kelly

Travelers Championship 2019
---
Below
Bet $2,247.94
Returned $2,815.16
P&L +$567.22

Overall
Bet $5,972.59
Returned $7,404.62
P&L +$1,432.03
Betting ROI +24%
Value of Bonuses / Rewards $37.50
TOTAL P&L +$1,469.53

New Bankroll = $6,469.53
---
Winners
Chez Reavie
Top 5 @ +1200 - Bet $1.51 - Returned $19.63

Keegan Bradley
Top 5 @ +1800 - Bet $19.59 - Returned $372.21
Top 10 @ +750 - Bet $16.80 - Returned $142.80
Top 20 @ +320 - Bet $11.04 - Returned $46.37

Vaughn Taylor
Top 5 @ +4000 - Bet $6.91 - Paid $283.31
Top 10 @ +1600 - B $8.09 - P $137.53
Top 20 @ +700 - B $23.23 - P $185.84

Roberto Diaz
Top 10 @ +4000 - B $4.24 - P $173.84
Top 20 @ +1400 - B $1.75 - P $26.25

72 Hole Match-up
Marc Leishman @ -125 v Brandt Snedeker - B $81.85 - P $147.33
Justin Thomas @ -111 v Jordan Spieth - B $272.80 - P $518.32
Patrick Cantlay @ +110 v Brooks Koepka - B $90.46 - P $189.97

Placed after round 1 for winner
Chez Reavie @ +2500 - B $15.96 - P $414.96

2 Balls (Sunday)
Patrick Cantlay @ -167 v Martin Laird - B $98.00 - P $156.80

Losers
Jason Kokrak
Winner @ +6600 - $5.80
Top 5 @ +1400 - $39.21
Top 10 @ +700 - $75.06
Top 20 @ +320 - $116.80

Byeong Hun An
Winner @ +6600 - $3.03
Top 5 @ +1400 - $23.27
Top 10 @ +650 - $35.10
Top 20 @ +275 - $30.17

Lucas Glover
Winner @ +8000 - $6.25
Top 5 @ +1600 - $30.88
Top 10 @ +750 - $55.92
Top 20 @ +333 - $85.16

Kevin Streelman
Top 10 @ +650 - $9.45

Keegan Bradley
Winner @ +8000 - $0.52

Sung Kang
Top 5 @ +2200 - $10.61
Top 10 @ +1000 - $20.35

Andrew Putnam
Top 5 @ +2500 - $10.45
Top 10 @ +1100 - $16.76
Top 20 @ +450 - $4.47

Bud Cauley
Winner @ +12500 - $0.33

Collin Morikawa
Top 5 @ +2800 - $1.60
Top 10 @ +1200 - $2.38
Top 20 @ +500 - $2.26

Max Homa
Top 5 @ +3300 - $9.70
Top 10 @ +1400 - $11.97
Top 20 @ +600 - $13.02

Joel Dahmen
Top 5 @ +2800 - $5.64
Top 10 @ +1200 - $8.77
Top 20 @ +500 - $14.53

Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Top 5 @ +3300 - $4.31
Top 10 @ +1600 - $17.16
Top 20 @ +600 - $9.05

Cameron Smith
Top 5 @ +2800 - $0.37

Troy Merrit
Top 5 @ +3300 - $10.70
Top 10 @ +1400 - $16.96
Top 20 @ +600 - $37.01

Matt Jones
Top 20 @ +550 - $12.47

J.T. Poston
Winner @ +20000 - $0.37
Top 5 @ +5000 - $17.75
Top 10 @ +1800 - $22.69
Top 20 @ +750 - $48.02

Harold Varner III
Top 5 @ +3300 - $1.44

Sam Ryder
Winner @ +25000 - $1.55
Top 5 @ +5000 - $17.84
Top 10 @ +2000 - $32.25
Top 20 @ +850 - $74.09

Peter Malnati
Top 5 @ +4000 - $8.95
Top 10 @ +1400 - $1.45
Top 20 @ +650 - $24.49

Brian Stuard
Top 5 @ +4000 - $9.73
Top 10 @ +1400 - $2.24
Top 20 @ +600 - $12.50

Dylan Frittelli
Top 5 @ +4000 - $10.80
Top 10 @ +1400 - $7.40
Top 20 @ +650 - $31.18

Denny McCarthy
Top 5 @ +5000 - $14.50
Top 10 @ +1800 - $20.05
Top 20 @ +750 - $38.35

J.J. Spaun
Top 5 @ +4000 - $2.63
Top 20 @ +750 - $16.64

Jonas Blixt
Top 5 @ +4000 - $2.69
Top 10 @ +1800 - $6.87

Trey Mullinax
Top 5 @ +4000 - $1.02

Scott Stallings
Top 20 @ +750 - $1.69

Aaron Baddeley
Top 5 @ +4000 - $2.76
Top 20 @ +700 - $6.97

Ryan Armour
Top 5 @ +5000 - $4.85
Top 10 @ +2000 - $8.20
Top 20 @ +750 - $5.74

Adam Schenk
Top 5 @ +5000 - $4.63
Top 10 @ +2000 - $4.25
Top 20 @ +850 - $14.87

Bronson Burgoon
Winner @ +50000 - $0.85
Top 5 @ +12500 - $12.16
Top 10 @ +4000 - $22.08
Top 20 @ +1400 - $42.09

Adam Long
Winner @ +40000 - $0.14
Top 5 @ +8000 - $4.49
Top 10 @ +3300 - $11.22
Top 20 @ +1200 - $17.72

Carlos Ortiz
Top 5 @ +6600 - $1.83
Top 10 @ +2500 - $1.15
Top 20 @ +1000 - $1.47

Andrew Landry
Top 20 @ +1000 - $13.60

Kramer Hickok
Top 5 @ +6600 - $1.46

Brice Garnett
Top 5 @ +8000 - $2.99
Top 10 @ +2800 - $1.07
Top 20 @ +1100 - $5.77

Richy Werenski
Top 5 @ +10000 - $5.91
Top 10 @ +3300 - $7.45
Top 20 @ +1200 - $11.13

Patton Kizzire
Top 5 @ +8000 - $1.09

Roberto Diaz
Top 5 @ +10000 - $1.64

Josh Teater
Top 5 @ +10000 - $1.64

Cameron Davis
Top 5 @ +10000 - $2.49
Top 20 @ +1400 - $9.81

Boo Weekley
Top 5 @ +12500 - $1.55

Hudson Swafford
Top 5 @ +10000 - $0.49
Top 10 @ +4000 - $4.09
Top 20 @ +1400 - $3.10

Adam Svensson
Top 20 @ +1600 - $3.92

Nicholas Lindheim
Top 5 @ +10000 - $0.16
Top 10 @ +4000 - $1.64

Anders Albertson
Top 5 @ +20000 - $1.27

72 Hole Match-up
Tony Finau @ -105 v Bubba Watson - $50.85

Placed After Rd 1 - all for winner
Bronson Burgoon @ +6600 - $21.72
Collin Morikawa @ +9000 - $2.56
Nick Watney @ +9000 - $11.84
Ryan Armour @ +4500 - $17.30
Sam Ryder @ +25000 - $7.03

2 Balls (Sunday)
Roberto Diaz @ +115 v Zack Sucher - $48.00

I'm not going to post every bet because it is too tedious. I will post the ones I think are very good, and track them separately.

This week in 72-hole matchups on the Euro Tour:
Jon Rahm at -105 over Sergio Garcia, 12 units (currently $740.79)

P.S. I intend to post more than one "tracked" bet per week in the future, but this week I spent so much time messing with my spreadsheet I didn't get them up in time