So, I've decided to start a thread here, which I am going to update regularly.
The Beginning
I have been studying poker game theory for around 6 weeks now, with the short-term intention of improving to a level where I can reasonably expect to be good enough to start playing poker for a decent base income. I haven't played during this time (beyond a few games for academic purposes) so that I can dedicate my entire focus to this studying, but when I do start to play I plan to learn in tandem on an ongoing basis, to improve to levels where I am playing at the upper echelons of the game in a few years time. I plan to use hourly win rates as both short-term benchmark targets and metrics to measure my performances by, in pursuit of this bigger objective. Lots of small steps rather than one big leap.
While I'm sure these forums are probably filled with this kind of all too familiar "I'm going pro" type entry - many of which invariably tend to fizzle out - all I can say is time will reveal mine to be one of the genuine projects. However, as an initial statement of intent, I should briefly explain that this wasn’t a snap decision - I considered my options and decided to do this for various reasons. I am absolutely committed to these aims, and I don't expect any easy half-arsed ascent to the top. I fully expect to put in the hours and, in fact, I relish the potential edge I can gain from working harder - and smarter - than others. I have good reasons for wanting to do this, but these are fairly involved. I expect a more complete picture of my situation and objectives will become apparent over the coming posts.
To reiterate, my time-frame for this is in years, not months. I hope this is indicative of my intention to be realistic. I haven’t completely settled on my exact targets, because there is more research I want to do before I get to that stage, but I do have some initial ideas for what I think is possible, and plausibly based (I will outline these in a later post). I like to set achievable short-term targets whilst honing much bigger ambitions longer-term - I find it a mentally sound approach for dealing with the swings of a life (not doubt made swingier by a career in poker!). It acknowledges the numerous practical hurdles I will need to overcome in pursuit of improvements, but ensures I don't sacrifice the "dare to dream" type ambition that makes life fun and exciting. I love proving people wrong, it energises me, and this mentality has always helped me in the past.
Some Background
I'm 27, London-based, and have spent the last 3 years working as a credit derivatives market-maker at two of the "Big Banks" (Morgan Stanley, then Credit Suisse). That whole experience was invaluable for me in terms of my personal confidence, and understanding of how things "work" in the real world economy (and indeed the real world more generally). But I decided to leave the industry in March because it felt the right time for me to move on, and become more autonomous with my life. (As an aside, I know some members of the community are interested in trading, and I am happy to lend my perspective / share my experiences with anyone who finds it helpful)
I didn’t drop trading for poker, I left the industry because after the buzz and excitement of the first few years, I felt I had plateaued, and I could clearly see the cynical career path I was heading down. Yes there’s good money to be made, and the odds are against me to surpass my future earnings curve with poker for at least a few years. But life is more than money for me, and the frequent 6am to 8pm days in the office, the lack of social contact with family and friends, and the fact that the industry is in highly tenuous times (which means you frequently don’t reap rewards for these sacrifices anyway) all led to my decision to leave. An opportunity lent itself to pack it in without losing out, and I took it. The decision to play poker came later.
Poker Philosophy & Approach
In my experience, the majority of people seem to be too embarrassed to risk stating apparently “outlandish” targets or unrealistic ambitions. That attitude is a pet hate of mine. I like to set the bar as high as realistically plausible (and perhaps I find things more plausible than others as a tendency). If others managed to get to the top of the game, why not me? I consider myself an ambitious realist - I know the community is full of intelligence, but I'm confident I can intellectually match the best players out there when I put my mind to it, and I am willing to put in the required effort to do so.
My resolve in this instance is strengthened by the approach I’m adopting. As mentioned at the top of this post, I am studying game theory at the minute as the starting base for these poker pursuits. I fully buy into the theory that Mathematics underpins how to maximise profits playing poker. As a Mathematics graduate I am perhaps biased, but my recent studying has reinforced these views, and I already feel as though my fundamental understanding of poker has significantly improved. I’m not the most brilliant Mathematician - in fact it is probably one of the areas I found hardest throughout academia - but I chose to study it because I could see how useful a skill it would be throughout life. Having said that, my maths abilities do extend to the point where I’m capable of understanding complicated concepts when I focus on them. My innate strengths, however, lie more in the application of these concepts, aided through my propensity for creative thinking. I am good at understanding people and emotions, and being able to describe my intuitions through rigorous Mathematics will, I believe, be hugely additive.
After many years of learning Mathematics, and many of its various fields, I found Game Theory to be the area that most lends itself for creative use. It uses probability and measure, calculus, linear algebra, pure and applied analysis, linear and dynamic programming methods, and more. It seems to pretty much draw on any area to help in solving games. Once you know the theory, and have learned some methods for solutions, you can define games that mimic an unlimited array of circumstances from real life, and solve them. The design of these games obviously underpins how useful their solutions are, and one of the important abilities is in being able to interpret the solutions for real life use. Poker is far too complex to solve beyond Heads up situations, so having the ability to design games for solutions with practical uses, as well as interpret results for real life, is clearly of huge importance. I have no doubts about my capabilities to do this, which is the basis of my confidence.
Purpose of this thread
My main aim for this thread is to create a way for me to externalise some thoughts, ask some questions, and post updates on progress made. Through doing so, I hope to make a few new friends, and become acquainted with some of the other open-minded thinkers from the community.
I’ll leave it there for now. Thanks for reading if you made it this far!
Ben
