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Old 02-24-2019, 10:41 AM   #1051
MikeStarr
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
My worst downswing I think was close to 3k but that included a big 2/5 game. I think my biggest downswing just at 1/3 was $1200.

I think if you have 1k your risk of ruin shouldn’t be too high, 2k to be safe but I’m not an expert on this.

Assuming a win rate of 7 Bb/hr or roughly 23 Bb/100 and a standard deviation of 100, you need a 651 Bb bankroll for a less than 5% risk of ruin:https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
I wouldnt assume a win rate of anywhere near 7BB/hr for DooDooPoker. At least not until he gets 500+ hrs under his belt. He's going to find out right away that online poker and live poker are as different as football and baseball. Both are sports with balls but other than that, the skill sets are much different.

If he doesnt run good right off the bat, I think he could easily lose 4-5 buy ins before he figures out WTF is going on with these clowns.
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:52 PM   #1052
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Pretty good news, she ended up getting offers at almost everywhere she applied, including Boston, but she chose to stay in St. Pete. I told her I was fine with either location so it was up to her. Boston would have been exciting but I'm enjoying life in Florida. Weather+low cost of living+no state income tax is very nice. Trying to scrape together enough money to buy a house in Boston would have been a nightmare if we ended up wanting to stay there.

I don't know if I posted this already, but my goal is to make around 80k this year from poker and play around 2k hours. So far in 2019 I'm up around $13,700 after 280 hours so I'm a little behind on the hours (on pace for 1800) but doing well in terms of the financial goal. I need to continue to focus on how I spend my time off the table so I can keep my focus and don't get burnt out. I ended up taking Saturday-Monday off due to feeling a little burnt out on poker. I did play on Friday and finished down around $380.
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Old 02-27-2019, 01:31 AM   #1053
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Up $600 or so so far today after a few hours of 2/5. Couple of interesting spots, I thought this was a good bluff spot.

H1: bluff sticky rec?

2/5 $550 effective.

Main V has shown to be a pretty sticky rec. He wasn’t getting a bad price but he bet callled AK one heart on 654 two tone and called a small shove on an offsuit brick turn. Also saw him open ATo pre over limps in MP. Hero has vpip’d once in 45 min but it’s questionable to what degree this guy is paying attention.

Hero limps Q2cc. 5 to a flop.

Jc9s3c.

Xxx, V $25, H calls.

Pot:$75

Turn Kd.

X, V $45, H calls.

I got a read that he was pretty weak here. It felt like he had a weak J and didn’t know what to do with it. Given how sticky he has shown to be I don’t love raising here though.

River As.

Pot$160.

I donk $85 and he folds 98cc face up and he puts me on AK lol.

I think I probably should have sized up on the bluff but I like the line. It’s hard for the A to have improved his hand unless he had QT which I block or possibly A9.

In general I’m going back and forth between how much I want to trust my gut/live reads and how much I want to just stick to my basic overall strategy. I used to play too weak/tight in a lot of spots in the past so sticking to a solid strategy with some exploits has served me well but I wonder how far I should be willing to deviate from that based on reads.
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Old 02-27-2019, 02:46 AM   #1054
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

4 hours of 2/5 up $802. Good session. Played well and ran well.
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Old 02-27-2019, 08:35 AM   #1055
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

I dont like your limp of Q2s, but the way you played the hand and trusted your gut to use a line that won the hand is what separates the men from the boys

Solid TAG play will only get you so far. If you want to hit 10BBs/hr+ you have to get creative. So many people think a win rate that high is impossible but its because they play ABC poker. Nice Hand.
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:57 AM   #1056
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Crap. I meant to write “I check Q2cc” I was in the BB. I definitely don’t open limp or essentially ever limp Q2 lol.

Thanks though for the feedback.
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Old 02-28-2019, 12:54 AM   #1057
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Down about $400 so far today at 1/3 but made a bit of a hero call against a maniac which helped. I’ve also been massively nit rolled twice.

H1: Hero calling the maniac.

So I think every street is to some extent debatable. V is vpiping 100% of hands. He 3 bets a ton and is super bluffy. He and I have played together a few times and he is pretty reluctant to 3 bet me pre flop because he knows I’m not a pushover. He is bullying the table though and people are trying to stay out of his way and only playing premiums.

V straddles CO I’m OTB with Kh9c

He plays so bad but my this hand in this position is obviously fairly poor. If there were other competent players at the table who weren’t scared of him I would just toss my hand but in this game I decide to open to $25. Rec from h2 flats and maniac flats.

Pot:$75

Flop: Qs 9s 4c

Xxx

Turn Js.

X, maniac $100, H calls.

Pot:$275.

River 7c.

Maniac tosses out a bunch of chips. I would say ballpark $165. I made the decision on the turn I’m calling any reasonable bet on a brick so I snap call and I’m good against A2.

H2: annoying nit roll.

UTG has a sizing tell and raises based on his hand strength. He’s some kind of rec. He covers.

CO is short stacked

I’m in the BB with $450 I’ve lost every hand for the first 1.5 hours except for one hand where I cbet on K55 with air and took it down. Mostly I’ve just been folding pre.

Open to $10 UTG, 3 calls, I $60 JJ in the BB. UTG and CO call.

Flop: TJ3r.

Pot:$200.

I $70, V tank calls, other V folds.

Turn Kr

Pot: $370

I $150, V takes a minute and calls.

Pot: $670

River: 5.

I stuff $120 and he goes into the tank. After about two minutes he tosses in the call. I show JJ he shows Q9o lol. Frustrating but people being clueless is why poker is profitable so it is what it is.

H3 comical nit roll.

Different villain. This one was more funny than annoying.

Bunch of limps, H $25 AJ, V with a $75 stack limp reraises to $50. Ugh whatever I jam for his last $25. V tanks 1.5 minutes and calls with AK. He holds.
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Old 03-03-2019, 05:17 AM   #1058
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Some really tough spots today, got them all "right" except one. I got them right against their exact hand that is, range vs range it's always harder to say what the right answer is.

Here was the one I got wrong:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post54883538

I call and lose to 64. Not losing too much EV against that hand so call probably not terrible. I think I like the call against this V, but I'm not sure.

Got this hand right: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post54883536

I fold and V had 75dd. Again, I think I like my fold but I'm not sure. I talked to four different pros, two of which were in the game when it happened. Both who were in the game said fold, one of them has played with her a lot, one didn't know her. Both pros who were out of the game said call, one of them has played with her a lot and said "snap call", the other one said probably call and doesn't know her. So a lot of different opinions.

Got some other spots right as well but they didn't go to show down and they were against regs and were played pretty exploitatively so I can't really post them.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 03-03-2019 at 05:31 AM.
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Old 03-03-2019, 09:35 AM   #1059
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
I talked to four different pros, two of which were in the game when it happened.
Dude. Stop this. This will be the last time I post this advice bc tilt people when I beat dead horses but stop.

If you are just having a good time for the next few years then sure make friends talk strat etc.

If you want to make an easy $100k for the foreseeable future and do not talk strat with 4 different people that play in your same 1 game. It’s tough but be distant.

I’m going to go out on a very short limb here and say you are likely the best player in the room, whether you realize that or not. Stop talking to people.

It’s ok to have like one solid poker friend. Preferably another introvert, where you both vibe off each other and help each other but don’t spread knowledge beyond each other.

When you get in these big live circle jerks it creaates a bunch of different problems.
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Old 03-03-2019, 10:00 PM   #1060
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

I always appreciate advice, feedback never tilts me. I think it’s good advice as well and something I have to consider. I could be giving too much away.

I think you might be giving me a little too much credit but thank you for the compliment. I think I play between decent and solid by pro standards and I have a lot I still need to improve on.
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Old 03-11-2019, 12:47 PM   #1061
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

I’m off to a good start in March. I was card dead and flop dead for the first week. This week I made a few too many mistakes but I’m running substantially above EV, was on the good side of AA v KK and held, and have received a few gifts.

H1: V donks pot

Limp H $25 with AQss OTB, blinds call and limper calls.

Flop A72r.

Sb donks $100, fold, fold. I’ve seen her donk about 3 times so far in the first hour and she seems spewy so I’m just not folding here or on any turns. I call.

Turn 3d putting out diamond draw.

She rips it for $300. Not happy but I call.

River 5c.

She says “damn you got me” and turns over 47dd notrealizing she hit a straight. Hand was tabled so she scoops.

H2: Tough turn spot with QQ against likely maniac.

I sit down at 2/5 on a Friday night. The first 3 hands I play V open raises to $50. The next hand he straddles and raises Q4o to $50 over two limps and gets one call. He bet folds to a check shove on 478.

In general he is just tossing in the money like he couldn’t care less.

Very next hand, V is the effective stack with $450 V opens CO to $50, I $150 with QQ OTB and he calls. So pot is going to be $300 with $300 behind.

Flop AdJh3c.

Xx

Turn 6d

Pot: $300

V $150. H? I call.

River is a brick, he shoves $150 I call. V shows AJ.

His turn sizing is kind of value heavy but maybe I just can’t fold against this guy.


H3: Bluff doesn’t get through.

FPS against a rec?

I overlimp QJo V limps behind.

Flop 893r

X, I check, he bets small a couple of people fold and I call.

Turn 8.

I lead he calls.

River 3.

I barrel he calls and shows J8.

H4: Stacking off with AQ pre

Button was strongly implying this was spewy on my part but I can’t really find a scenario where this isn’t +EV for me. If he’s jamming TT+ AK+ call is profitable. If he’s jamming JJ+AK call is likely profitable but it depends on the other ranges. This is admittedly at the bottom of my get it in range here but it seems fine...

These stack depths aren’t exact for HJ and CO.

Button seems like decent/solid rec. plays lag. (covers)
CO ($700). Whale.
HJ ($1100) decent/solid rec.
Hero +2 $500
BB, drunk dude who just lost a pot ($70)

7 handed 2/5.

Button straddle, BB jams $70, I flat, HJ flats, CO says “donation” and flats, button $300, H ships it, HJ folds, whale calls and button calls. Button had JJ and I hit a Q and scoop.

H5: Solid draw vs flop donk for all the money

So this hand was actually just a few minutes after the QQ hand. I rebought for $800

V1 who seems potentially spewy opens $20, call by maniac, I $70 AKdd and both call.

Pot:$210.

643 two diamonds.

V1 donks $150, call, I consider flat vs jam and opt to jam. V1 tank folds and V2 folds what he claims was Q5.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 03-11-2019 at 01:12 PM.
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:27 PM   #1062
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Oh I also made a bit of a hero fold that I got correct. It was against a rec playing any two pre but seemed to be fairly passive post. His fold to cbet% is also close to zero but he gives up on turns and rivers.

I have a nit image and half the table has been giving me **** about it for three hours straight. Most of it was good natured, I’m just stating the extent of my image for context.

Game is playing passive pre, no one is 3 betting light. 2/5. I have ~$900 and LJ covers.

I open 67cc+2 to $20, rec calls LJ and blinds call.

Pot:$80

Flop: TT4 two clubs.

I $35 LJ calls.

Turn 3c

Pot:$150

I check, V snap bets $75, I call.

River is an offsuit 8.

Pot: $300

X, V snap bets $300.

I tank and fold. I ask him to show and he shows A2cc. I’m obviously paying off against a more aggressive player. I also saw him not value bet thin in a couple spots so I’m confident his sizing eliminates any Tx.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 03-11-2019 at 01:47 PM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:01 AM   #1063
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Well it’s been a great year so far and at the end of the month I’m taking my SO to Barbados so that should be a fun time.

I think this PG&C has mostly run its course however for a few reasons. I play in a pretty small population, there is usually one table of 2/5 on weekdays with two on weekends. Most of the pros and a couple of the serious recs know my 2+2 at this point (hi guys!) so after today I’m pretty much done posting strategy. I also think it’s in poor taste to post my financial results in a room where everyone knows me; I don’t see anything good coming from that. If I do well that’s not great and if I do poorly that’s not great either.

I’ll probably still post the occasional fun hand, monster pot, or any big life changes, but I’m going to be posting much more infrequently. I’m looking to start playing some 5/10 in the next few months, so if I start taking shots in that game and/or the 10/20 game I’ll let you guys know how it went.

Thank you so much to everyone who has posted advice, I’m sure without 2+2 my winrate wouldn’t be half of what it is, I don’t know if I would still be playing poker, I owe you guys so much. I know if current me played with me from a year ago he would think that guy is a complete fish. Now that I have some tools to help me think about the game in the right way, in a year from now I’m sure I’ll think current me was a complete fish.

Thanks again everyone

-A bad reg.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 03-15-2019 at 08:30 AM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 03:16 PM   #1064
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Sorry to see you go. GL
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Old 03-15-2019, 07:04 PM   #1065
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

GG, gl with the shots!
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:41 PM   #1066
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

GL man. Probably a smart move. RIP this thread
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Old 04-18-2019, 07:49 PM   #1067
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

It’s been a good month since I stopped posting, everything has been continuing to go well this year. I had a +3k 2/5 session yesterday to put me up almost 7k for the week. I did hit one $1000 high hand which certainly helped. This was not it:

H1: Play for the high hand here?

Very nitty 2/5 game going at 10:00 AM. hero is the only one under 65 at the table. The casino is running a $1000 per half hour high hand.

Hero opens KTcc +2 to $20 BU and BB call. Both have about $400 in their stack. I would expect both to flat JJ and QQ pre although 3 bet QQ sometimes.

Flop: 9hJcQc.

Pot:$57.

I thought this flop smashes their preflop flat ranges since they play so tight, so I might as well downbet and build a bit of a pot while still playing for the high hand.

H$15, BU call, BB $30, H$90, fold, BB rips it for $330 total I call.

BB flopped two pair and actually hit his boat.

Between that and a few other bad beats I actually started the session down $800 before going on an insane heater.

H2: Pro with the amateur live tell.

Hand from Tuesday:

Hero opens 99 UTG to $20, call, a guy who is 100% a full time pro flats BB.

Pot:$55

Flop 862r.

X, H$35, fold, pro calls.

Pot: $125

Turn 9

X, H $75 V actually sort of sighs and goes “hmmmm” then raises to $175 with 57. Lol. I call.

River is a 6. He rips it for $300 or so and I snap.

H3 Let the heater commence.

Hand that started the Wednesday heater, an absolute gift from the poker gods.

Super nit opens 25 UTG, 3 calls, I call 9h9d OTB. We go 5 to the flop.

Pot:$125

Flop Ah9c8h.

Nit $75 with $150 behind, CO snap rips it for $750 or so, Hero calls and UTG calls. I hold. CO had A8, UTG mucked.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 04-18-2019 at 08:16 PM.
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Old 04-23-2019, 02:18 AM   #1068
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Two more good sessions the last two days. Not looking forward to the inevitable regression to the mean but I’ll enjoy this 2019 heater while it lasts.

I’m a little confused about a hand between Bicknell and Mateos. Something Bicknell says seems straight up wrong. It’s the first hand:

https://problog.partypoker.com/2019/...irst-100k.html

Summary of the hand is she opens KhQc+1, Mateos flats button. KsTc2c-2s-3s board. She checks three streets and Mateos triples. He goes small on flop and 2/3
Pot turn and river and she folds river.

So Bicknell says she thinks having the Qc in her hand on the river is really bad for her but that seems backwards right? Mateos is an elite player and should know his best bluffs are going to block flushes, block strong Kx, and unblock clubs. Mateos should be bluffing hands like AQ/AJ with a spade and QJhh/dd right? I mean vs an average rec I wouldn’t want to have the Qc but it seems pretty irrelevant vs Mateos.

Am I missing something? River fold and the reasoning seem bad but maybe she’s just got the sick live reads and that’s why she has 3.3 million in earnings and I’m a 2/5 bad reg

Last edited by Badreg2017; 04-23-2019 at 02:37 AM.
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Old 04-23-2019, 05:55 PM   #1069
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post

So Bicknell says she thinks having the Qc in her hand on the river is really bad for her but that seems backwards right?
Am I missing something? River fold and the reasoning seem bad but maybe sheís just got the sick live reads and thatís why she has 3.3 million in earnings and Iím a 2/5 bad reg
She is just saying that the Qc removes some of his front door bluff combos = him having more value hands in his range. Seems like an ICM exploitative fold? Lol donkaments?

BTW, haven't caught up with your story since you went to LA - I am ecstatic for your success but sorry to hear about your cat.
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:41 AM   #1070
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Thanks.

I did understand her point that he has fewer missed draws in his range, but Mateos mostly shouldn’t be bluffing with those combos anyway. Mateos wants to be bluffing with hands that don’t contain a club and ideally do contain a spade.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 04-26-2019 at 07:46 AM.
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Old 05-07-2019, 12:57 AM   #1071
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Games mostly haven’t been great the last few weeks but I’ve been doing fairly well. Running a few thousand below all in EV the last two weeks but I don’t sweat it like I used to now that I have many more wins under my belt. I’m much more confident in my game at this point.

Today I was in a weird pot with a bit of a surprising result:

H1: I never doubted I would scoop!

2/5, the second biggest stack in the hand is a whale with $700 and I cover.

UTG straddles and whale double straddles from +1.

I open AQo to $60 +2, +3 flats, BB flats, UTG jams $130, whale calls, back to me, good spot to 4 bet iso and collect dead money but the whale plays the worst post flop of anyone I’ve ever seen at 2/5. He min raises bottom pair and just spazzes randomly, +3 also plays super face up.

I decide to go ahead and flat. +3 calls, BB, an unknown woman, now ships it for $400, whale calls, I jam, +3 folds, whale calls.

Board runs out like J52-5-6.

I table my AQ, no one else tables there hand for a while. Then everyone mucks and I scoop a $2050 4 way all in pre pot AQ high.

Was up 2.3k at one point but only cashed out up $1000. Whale cracked me big once.

H2: Getting unstuck.

We are now playing with a mandatory UTG straddle. I open AQcc UTG and get 5 calls including whale in the straddle.

Flop: A72 two clubs.

Whale leads, I raise, he flats. Turn 9. He rips it for like half pot and I snap. He tables 97o lol.

Obviously it was a great game and up 1k is a great result but still a bit disappointed.
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Old 05-07-2019, 02:52 AM   #1072
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Typos in the last post. H2 was meant to be titled: “getting upstuck”. Also: table *their* hands. I’m the worst typist on my phone.

2/5 died a bit so left to play 1/3 which then broke so went back to 2/5.

Just had someone who had not bluffed once for hours and never went for value in clear spots lead 4 ways and then call it off with A2 vs my QQ on 782r and get there. This whole day was just bizarre. I would have respected a check/jam there with A2, but half pot lead OOP 4 ways/call it off is so bad. Luckily I got it back a few hands later.

Easily the most tilting +1k session I’ve had lol.

Overall it’s encouraging to know at least that it’s going to be a while before live poker is dead.

I’ll need to rethink the first AQ hand when I get a chance and figure out if I should have just 4 bet pre. My preflop game still needs a lot of work. Given how H2 played out, you can see why though I wanted to keep that guy in the pot.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 05-07-2019 at 03:07 AM.
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Old 05-19-2019, 01:51 AM   #1073
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Great week last week, finished even this week, but only put in minimal volume this week due to life stuff.

Played in a few .5/1 and 1/2 PLO private online games over the last couple of weeks and have done well. I’m still pretty clueless but I’m considering playing some live PLO for the first time on Monday. Without knowing anything about PLO I can say the online games I was beating were crazy soft, I assume live will be similar but we will see.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 05-19-2019 at 01:59 AM.
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Old 05-21-2019, 02:49 AM   #1074
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Finished up $1300 at 2/5 and another $250 or so at 1/3. Also played a couple hours of .5/1 5 card PLO in that private online game and finished up $120. Live 2/5 was a good game so no point in leaving to go play live PLO.

Since I don’t want to talk about NLHE hand histories as much, I’m probably going to start posting a lot of my PLO results/hands. I’ve played less than 100 hands of PLO lifetime before this last week so I’m going to be an absolute scrub. Luckily for me, the game I’m playing in is crazy action and people are even worse than I am, so strap in.
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Old 05-21-2019, 06:58 PM   #1075
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Re: Talking my shot at becoming a live pro.

Couple of hands I might have misplayed from .5/1 PLO.

H1 I had trips.

Hero opens AA36 hchc to $3.50 HJ, button and blinds call.

Pot: $14.

9sTc6d.

Xxxx.

Turn 6c.

BB leads $4.50. Fold. H $17, fold, Bb calls.

River: Ks.

X, H? Do we go for value or check back. V is never going to bluff raise us if we bet. I opted to check back since I’ve been going for too much thin value but I think this is a bet. We lose to almost nothing that bets turn for that size.

H2: Go for value on river?

Hold’em mentality overplay by me or good line?

5 card PLO.

Straddle.

We open limp the HJ with Ah5s9sKsQc.

4 to the flop.

Pot:$8.5.

Flop As3s9h.

Straddle bets $6.5

With top two and the NFD I elect to raise it up $20 and V calls.

Pot: $47

Turn 2h.

X, H$37, V calls.

Pot: 117.

River Qd.

X, I jam $70, V calls with A99xx.

So if we are getting called by A9 that’s 4 combos. Then he has 4 combos of 33 and 99 that we lose to. He has some combos of 22 but not too many. So the question is if we also get called by A3.

H3: Lol wut?

Open, 3 bet, cold 4 bet, fold, 5 bet, 6 bet etc until these two guys get in over 400 blinds. TT52 single suited vs AJ57 single suited.

H4: check fold aces?

Both of those spazzes are gone and it’s back to a mostly loose passive game.

some limps, HJ open, I pot SB with AsAhKd4hJc. BB, one limper and HJ call.

Flop KsQc9s.

X, BB $75into $90. I have about $170 behind. Folds to me. I fold

Last edited by Badreg2017; 05-21-2019 at 07:09 PM.
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