Why the delayed cbet in the QJ hand as opposed to betting flop? Too much Ax in his continue range pre which you can weed out if he checks turn?

That was pretty much my thoughts. Plus once the board is ATTA, I actually have the best hand with Q high a good percentage of the time. I beat all his pocket pairs 99 and below.

I was card dead beyond belief today. The only hand of any note came on the first hand of the day. A whale on the button opened to $20. I made it $100 from the SB with KdKh. He called HU

Flop ($200) 8d7d5c. I bet $100. He shoved $350. I called and we ran it twice. He had 6h5h and we chopped. I hit on flush on the first board and he hit 2 pair on the 2nd board.

As far as my raising and taking pot down preflop went...my cards were atrocious and the table I was at most of the time was much much looser so I didnt get many opportunities.

I took down 3 pots preflop for total profit of $51

7.9 hrs played
15 pots taken down preflop
Profit...$243
Total profit...$281

Almost all of my profit so far has come from hands that never saw a flop. I also ran $380 below All in EV in 3 All in hands during this time.

Mike are you also taking note of the times and $$ you opened loose when you wouldn’t normally open and didn’t win the pot ?

Or am I misunderstanding the nature of your data capture?

No, Im just counting up all the money I win when I take a pot down preflop. Its really just for the sake of curiosity. A lot of the games I play in are very tight and nitty so I figure a high percentage of my profit comes from this and its probably also why my variance is so low. As I said yesterday, they arent all Lite raises. Im including raising premiums when everyone folds.

The basic premise is that I raise a lot compared to the daytime nits and people keep folding and they say "I hope you needed that $7 that bad"....they dont realize how quickly that $7, or $12 or $17 adds up over time. People constantly complain about the games having no action and they put in for table changes. I stay there and just keep peppering the table with raises and stealing dead money and it adds up.

I realize that if I get carried away and raise too often with too much junk that the money I lose when called will add up quickly. Im not going to use this to make any serious adjustments although I may start opening lite a little more often than I already do, because I know that Im profitable when someone calls my raises and I have junk hands. Playing these junk hands in raised pots has also forced me to become a better post flop player overall because I'm in many more questionable spots.

For almost 1000 hours Ive been keeping track of profit/loss of all hands when I raise preflop with a category of hands that I call "super lite".

Its basically anything
A8s and lower
K9s and lower
Q9s and lower
J9s and lower
Anything lower than that.

Basically pretty junky hands to be raising with.

Over 941 hours, Ive raised these hands 734 times. Sometimes Im open raising. Sometimes I raising $30 with 65s after 3 limps.

Ive been called 496 times and Ive shown a profit of $665 (Ive run $1270 under All in EV in the hands where someone shoved so I shouldve won more but even running bad so far in these spots, I'm still making a profit when called)

Ive taken it down preflop 238 times for a profit of $2453.

So even when called and having a severe card disadvantage, Im still profitable. These are mostly the hands that people constantly tell me I cant raise profitably unless I'm super deep. At least in my games, Ive proven that's not true. When I play in different rooms with much more action or when a table in my main room has more action, I dont raise that crap.

Of course I dont know if I could've made more money limping 65s after 3 limpers than I have raising in that spot.


Sorry for the ramble...

this is life on the felt in a nutshell

GREAT POST

playing the players and adjusting to the table at the time in spite of math and charts =$$$$$ earned

the better you become at reading opponents , than you can adjust to take advantage.

I see very few players still in the game from even 5 yrs ago as they can't set EGO aside and they go broke

Today's session was 4.5 hrs of trash hands and trash flops. The table had plenty of action but I couldnt do much to take advantage of it. I had 1 big winning hand, 3 good bluffs and a whole lot of bleeding of chips.

1) 3 limps. I limp MP with Th7h. We end up going 7 to the flop.
Flop ($35) 8h9c6s. Checked to me. I bet $20. A fish in the SB check raises to $50. EP limper cold calls the check raise. I call as well.

Turn ($185) 2d. SB bets $65. EP calls. I have $390 left and decide to raise to $150. SB tank/folds. EP calls after a few secs.

River ($550) Kc. He checks. I shove and he calls off $240.

That was my one value hand of the day. I only won 4 more hands and 3 of them were bluffs. Here they are.

2) MP limps. I raise to $25 Jh9h. A super loose guy calls in the SB HU
Flop ($55) TsTc4d. He checks/calls $35.
Turn ($125) Kh. He checks. I bet $80. He folds a 4 face up.

You may not call this a bluff. Most would call it a double barrel, which is what it is but I keep track of bluffs and I include double barrels with very little equity in that category.

3) 5 way limped pot. I have Ah5h BB.

Flop ($25) 7c4h3s. Checked to the button who bets $20. I call with a double gutter. we are HU
Turn ($65) 8h. I check and he checks back.
River ($65) 9c. He clearly doesn't have a strong hand. 2 overcards came after the flop and he looks weak so I fired $50. He folded a 7 face up and said "I know you have 65"

4) Button straddles. I call in the SB with Js9s. I should fold for sure. MP limps. The button is pretty bad and he raises to $25. I call and MP calls

Flop ($80) QsTd3h. I lead $35. MP folds and the button calls.
Turn ($150) 4c...X/X
River ($150) Qd...I know Im not repping much but I dont expect the button to know that. I bet $50 and he folded. I figured it was a low risk bluff attempt to win the $150 pot.

Now for a couple hands that cost me money...

5) 5 way limped pot. I have T6 in the BB

Flop ($25) Ts8s6c. I check and it checks to MP who bets $20. The button and SB call. MP has $100 behind and I check raise to $120. He calls HU. The others fold

He had 97 and it held up.

6) EP limps. I raise $25 AsAc in LP. A fish calls OTB. SB also calls

Flop ($80) Ts6s3c. SB checks. I bet $50. Button calls HU
Turn ($180) 8d. I bet $125. He shoves $400. I fold.

I ended up losing $197 even though I won $500ish in the one big hand. The rest of the day was just me getting trash and trying to pull a bluff now and then to stay afloat.

The table was very loose so I wasnt raising very much at all with non premiums and and I didnt get many premiums. I only took down 2 pots preflop for a total of $19.

12.4 hrs played
17 pots taken down preflop
Preflop Profit...$262
Total profit...$84

Mike, if it isnt too much trouble...could you add red flop / black flop to your tracking?

I do alot of prop betting and am curious which one comes up more often.

Ty

Will do, Sir

lol

I realize that of all the stuff I keep track of, this sounds like one of the dumber ones . It is kind of dumb. I'm curious what percentage of my total profit comes from winning pots preflop. I make a lot of largish raises preflop after a few limps and take down a lot of pots rake free and with no post flop risk. I think its a big reason my variance is so low. If you play in action games, this stuff will never work, but in nitty games its the key to good consistent profits. The action at the Isle has picked up quite a bit the last week. I have no idea why but it has. We had six 2/5 games almost all day on Tuesday when 2-3 would be normal for the summer. This has made me play a bit tighter preflop and cut down on this phenomenon of my nitball games.

Results since July18th when I started looking at this:

31.1 hours played
37 pots taken down preflop
Preflop profit...$552
Total profit....$1946
Win rate...$62.27/hr

Preflop profit is 28% of total profit.

Here are a few examples from today.

1) EP limps..I raise $25 QJ in the LJ. Everyone folds.
2) UTG straddle. It folds to me in the SB. I raise $35 A5s. BB and UTG fold
3) 2 limps. I raise $30 QQ. Everyone folds.
4) 2 limps. Button raises $15. He obviously has some sort of SC type hand with this "pot sweetener". I 3 bet to $65 SB AT. Everyone folds. Buttons cards flipped up accidentally when he folded and he had QTs. If he raised $20-$25 I wouldve folded preflop but that $15 raise is just way too obvious.

Nothing earth shattering. Just easy money being stolen with very low risk. I won $100 preflop today.

I must be missing the point, but you're tracking the amount of money you take down preflop when you raise? I mean, that will *always* be positive and impressive, no?

Don't get me wrong; I've also concluded that taking down pots preflop, especially with decent dead money, especially against opponents who aren't payoffy postflop, is a good thing. However I also realize I can't go overboard because the one or two times I do get caught with my hand in the cookie jar could be devastating.

GcluelessstattrackingnoobG

Sure, it has to be positive since I win every hand. Im just trying to compare the total profit from pots won preflop to the total overall profit. The nittier the games are, the higher this percentage will be. Also the nittier the table, the more pots/hr you can win preflop by raising anything remotely playable.

People in my room complain constantly about how nitty the games are (mostly the nits are the ones complaining). The way you beat these nitballs is to raise them into oblivion preflop and keep stealing their money.

In 4.8 hrs today I won 11 more pots preflop. Clearly it was a nitball day. Thursdays at the Isle are pretty bad. Some days you may not even raise 11 times in 4.8 hours. I probably raised 35 times today.

35.9 hours played
48 pots taken down preflop
Preflop profit...$684
Total profit....$2028
Win rate...$56.26/hr

Preflop profit is 34% of total profit.

Yeah, I get what you're saying: tight games with no payoffy players it's probably best to amp up stealing pots preflop (and I don't disagree).

However, in order for the numbers to really be meaningful you'd have to compare (a) the total profit of raising a "so-so" hand preflop (profits - losses, not just keeping track of the profit of taking it down preflop) versus (b) the total profit of overlimping that same "so-so" hand in the exact same spot. And of course you'd need a pretty big sample size at both, and hopefully within the same conditions (both of which are likely not possible), before you really start beginning to see the big picture of which method is better.

I mean, what you're tracking is interesting and all, but I'm not convinced it's actually telling you something very useful? I wasted a 100 hours with my recent setmining tracking, and in the end I'm fairly convinced it was useless energy spent on something that didn't reveal all that much over a lol insignificant sample size.

ETA: Ha, feels like most of my posts in your thread have been leaving towards the negative. I don't mean to be and I'm not hating, just offering an opinion. You're crushing, so keep up the good work Mike!

Gthat'sjustmytakeonthings,ImightbewrongG

Mike
I’ve only just found this thread, it’s excellent, keep up the good work.
I think I read an earlier post from you that also gave your results when you raised lite pre and got called. I think you were showing a profit there and you said you were happy to break even those times.
Would be good to see updates of those stats too, if you do have them

Yeah, Im not sure something like this means much other than the fact that writing it down and/or tracking it keeps me aware of it. Its really easy to go into robotic ABC mode, which is not a persons "A" game.

Anything you track is going to make you hypersensitive to it. I tracked bluffs for a while and was doing really well with them. I stopped tracking them for a while and then realized I hadnt even attempted a bluff in quite a while. When Im tracking them (percentage that I get it thru and profit/loss) I look for spots to make a bluff. When I'm not tracking, its really easy to just fold and move on and not look for those spots. I call that your "B" game.

In July, Ive 3 bet lite 16 times. I got called 8 times and took it down preflop 8 times. (Long term rate of taking it down preflop is 58%)

The 8 times not called I have $260 profit
The 8 times I did get called I have $285 profit

Long term results when called preflop is just about breakeven. My goal is to break even when called. Anything above that is gravy to add onto the profit when they fold preflop. But the main purpose is to be seen 3 betting more often and to get more action on your premiums when you 3 bet.

Glad you're enjoying the thread.

This is an excellent point, and my tracking suggestion above (i.e. having to track both times you do vs don't and overall results) wouldn't even be able to factor in the benefits of this, and yet it's obvious pretty important for metagame.

GkeeponkeepingonG

Crazy you're getting 50% folds pre. Sounds closer to an online game than a regular live game. There's no way ppl are folding 50% to 3bet in the live games in my area.

Im getting 58% folds preflop. This is only when I 3 bet lite. I dont keep track of it when I have a premium. I think the main reason its so high is because Im pretty good at identifying the right time to do it.

Mainly I look for either guys who are raising way too often and its obvious they are trying to isolate people, or more importantly I 3 bet people lite who have obvious sizing tells. There are lots of guys who I see raise $20-$30 with a premium hand but then they raise to $15 after 2-3 limpers. If I have a playable hand, Im going to 3 bet in that spot very often depending on my position and who's yet til to act behind me. They almost always have some sort of mid pocket pair, small suited Ace or QTs type hand

I also play in nitty games. Everyone assumes a 3 bet is AA/KK because it usually is.

Mike,

An old post of yours from 21 May

Can you tell me how often you GII (I’ll assume once every two hours) and what is the typical effective stack (I’ll assume $250)

With above assumptions, I think we can approximate your situation by thinking of it as 1,600 coin flips for £250 each HU.

(Coin flips are an example of Bernoulli trials with a 50% chance of success)

The number of successful coin flips follows a Binomial distribution B(n,p) where n is the number of trials and p is the probability of winning each trial, so it’s a B(1600,0.5) distribution

The variance (of the distribution of the number of successful coin flips) = np(1-p) = 400

Standard deviation = square root of variance = 20.

I think you make 10bb per hour, that’s $160,000 total win after 3,200 hours

Your loss versus EV was 13.6% of winnings, so $21,760

With a pot size of $500 in each coin flip, you have lost 43.52 more flips than you’ve won. Lets call it 44. So you’ve lost 822 flips and won 778 flips - you’ve lost 22 more flips than you expected to. This is 1.1x the standard deviation.

For a large number of trials, the distribution will behave like a Normal distribution. We can look up 1.1 in a z-score table. This tells us you are at the 13th percentile point (‘of unluckiness’.)

Still assuming the same $250 effective stacks, if you have been GII once every hour then you’ve had 3,200 trials and you are at the 21st %ile point (less unlucky). If GII once every 4 hours, 6th %ile point.

You mentioned you considered 3-5% of your total win as more normal. Using 4%, you are at the 37th %ile point.

I could have gone wrong somewhere along the line here, I’d be happy to hear if anyone finds any errors or thinks the method is flawed

Some very good observations there about playing a 30BB game which apply very much to tournament play IMO (bad players but high variance, aptness of the baseball analogy)

I dislike tournaments for this reason - the need to make very precise decisions pre-flop, not being able to splash around much pre, fewer interesting decisions on later streets. Just not much fun compared with live deeper stacked IMO.

Having said that, I think it can be fun to play short-stacked occasionally for variety (face a different set of challenges) and as practice for tournaments...

Someone mentioned a couple of months ago (wrt Mike’s playing the 30BB cash game) that there were some good threads on 2+2 on short-stacked strategy.

Can someone tell me where these are?

I’m thinking of applying these ideas to tournament play. Let me know if you think it won’t apply to tournaments. I guess an obvious difference is that in cash you can just pull up more money, so you don’t have all the ICM considerations etc. Nevertheless, I’m hoping I can apply some of the advice.

(I dislike tournaments, but play a regular freeroll)

Wow..that made my head spin! Im not sure we can really use this math because most of the all ins arent coin flips. More often than not, Im ahead. I have no way of knowing how much equity I had in each pot now but here's something to think about.

Recently my room started allowing us to "run it twice". Some people dont like it, some do. I'm one of the ones who does like it because it lowers variance. Most people who dont like it dont even understand the purpose....anyway, Im rambling. The reason I brought that up is because I have noted every all in where we ran it twice so far. I have 21 of them. In those 21 all ins, I averaged 64% equity. Im sure that in all of those ones before where I lost so much in All in EV, I probably averaged somewhere near 64% or more also...not 50%.

Also, the avg pot size in these 21 all ins is $700, so the avg all in is higher than $250 each.

Here is a short stacking thread. Im not sure how good it is though.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...1-2-a-1718430/