Nobody's on third.

The problem is that unless it gets to showdown this is really not of much value since you don't really know the player pool and thus the villain tendencies so you will just be projecting their ranges.

I would agree with what Mr. Ava is positing here

A while back I tracked every single all in and in over 85% of the hands I knew exactly what they had. The other 15% it was pretty easy to narrow it down to a range of outs. If I can narrow it to, lets say, 7-12 outs I use a middle number like 10 outs. I will be a couple over or under the correct number. Over time it should even out. I may predict 3 too many outs one time and 2 too few outs the next time.

Its very rare that I cant figure out at all what the EV was. And remember, its only a problem when I win the hand, when he doesnt have to show first, and when he doesnt show even when he doesnt have to which lots of people do.

When this only covers 15% of the total number of all ins, it really makes very little difference in the total number I end up with.

I tracked every all in for 50 of them and the margin of error from having to estimate the number of outs when I didnt know was like 1% of the total EV number. Its plenty close enough for my purpose.

Im only talking about all in hands where it went to showdown. There's no way to track anything more than that.

wp

I dont mean Im a mind reader and knew what they had. I mean 85% of the time I either lost the hand and saw their cards, I won the hand but they had to show first, or I won the hand and they showed even though they didnt have to.

I have no idea whats so "LOL" about that.

The more I read 2+2, the more I realize how many idiots play poker and post on 2+2. Its no wonder a non genius guy like me can make so much money.

It should go without saying that this post goes hand in hand with my previous one where I said I used to give 2 ****s, but now only give 1.

I would guess the over/under should probably be around $40/hr.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

What's new in here?

Lets see...

I went 400 hours at $75/hr from Nov-Feb (ran pretty hot plus snowbirds were here)
Last 300 hours from March 1st thru present I'm at $26/hr (ran pretty cold plus snowbirds have left).

That's about $54/hr over my last 700ish hrs of 2/5.

Throw in a smallish amount of 1/2 and 1/3 while out of town or waiting for a table where I did pretty OK.

Add a dash of 5/10, when I can find a table open, where I crushed like a god and you have a pretty healthy amount of money sucked out of the poker economy the last 6 months.

But the S. Florida summer doldrums are upon me now. My normal games are filled with old nitty retired regs who eat matzah ball soup and argue about who has had more medical procedures.

So Im about to kick off my summer plan which includes gorilla warfare on S. Florida poker. In between a couple summer trips we have planned, Ill be hitting different poker rooms, different stakes, different times of the day than my normal routine.

I really want to try to get 100 hours of the $100-$300 buy in 5/10 game during the summer and Ill be kicking that off tomorrow.

Im trying to get some opinions on a realistic top end win rate in the short stack 5/10 game. Ive got a few opinions from people in real life and 1 person so far here has thrown out a $40/hr number.

Id love to get some more opinions. Keep in mind that there are virtually no good 5/10 players who would be caught dead in this game which is fine by me.

Cool to hear you doing well m8.

I was going to say, surely you're getting to the point where you just want to fist people at 5/10? For me now anything less than 5/10 just bores the fk outta me... But 5/10 is actually entertaining at the worst of times.

Wrt the +- hourly for that short buyin, it's actually completely ******ed that the buyin is 10-30bb, like completely ******ed. Who on earth decided that would be a good structure jesus ***** christ. I guess when the table opens you might get somewhere in the ~$25 ballpark and then if it's been open for a while and stack depth is getting closer to 100bb on average, then surpassing the $40/hr mark should definitely be doable. Obv if you're only playing it when table opens, then getting to that number would be tough. Also if you get stacked and everyoe is 1k+ deep do you have to rebuy for 300 lol?

I think 25 to 40 an hr is a good estimate. Avg stack sizes and line up are the biggest factors.

GL!

5/10 games are surprisingly hard to find in S. Florida. Its 9:30PM here and in the 6 rooms on Bravo there is one 5/10 game total. Ive been told that game is loaded with young pros in the evening.

I did say the short stack game sounds stupid didnt I? But I'm convinced its pretty profitable. Skill wise, the players appear to me to have no chance of beating a 1/2 game.

Ive never seen the stack depth get close to 100BB on avg but if it did, I assure you the top end win rate would be much higher than $40/hr. I mean imagine a 5/10 game where all the players are standard 1/2 donks. I think that game would be beatable for $150+/hr. However, like I said, Ive never seen stacks that deep. Ive seen 1 or 2 get that deep but Ive never seen $9000+ on the table.

Id say if I get a seat a couple hours after the table has been open there is probably $4000 on the table.

Yes, if you get stacked you can only rebuy $300.

My personal opinion after only about 50 hours in the game is that I can beat it for $50-60/hr. I may be proven wrong but I'm sticking to that for now. You just have no idea how bad some of these players are. Imagine a guy calling $40 with J8 and $100 behind? Or calling $40 HU with 44 and only $75 behind? You would think they would at least have the brains to shove or fold? Imagine 4-5 guys like that?

I haven't played in the game since last summer so maybe its changed but I doubt it.

Oh I mean if it is really no different to a $300 cap game then I think it'd be close to impossible to get 50-60. Obv depends on rake too but yeah can't see that happening. It's basically a 2/5 game and the only 2/5 games where you can get like 10bb/hr winrates are deepish ones, which you've indicated this one isn't. :/

GL WIDDIT THO!?

Iv'e played in the 5/10 100-300 game you're referring to and made a thread about it last year in LLSNL. It runs basically 24/7 and if you get in and play at the right times it is super soft. GL with the challenge. Maybe we will run into each other at the table w/out ever realizing it.

What's the rake at the lol shortstack 5/T game? I mean, honestly, it sounds a lot like my 1/3 NL game, but if the rake is much more due to it being a bigger game (I haz zero clue if that is actually the case?) then that's really going to cut into your hourly.

GandobviouslyOPis****tingtwiceasbigasbefore?newdie t?G

Rake is $5 +$2 which is standard in Florida but this place also rakes preflop. A lot of local rooms are no flop no drop but not this place.

I got started in the Donk 5/10 game today. I didnt get to play it as long as I wanted to because there was no table open for a bit after I got there so I played a little 2/5 first.

I played 3.5 hrs of Donk 5/10 and won $417. I won my 3 all in hands and ran $235 over All in EV on those hands. There's nothing earth shattering about them or many of the hands at all. The most important decision is preflop. After that a lot of the hands play themselves. Luckily, most people suck at their preflop decisions.

After the 3.5 hrs I played, there were 3 stacks over $700 (incl me). As the stacks get bigger the expected win rate increases especially since most of these guys have no business playing higher than 1/2 with a couple hundo in front of them. Ill try to stay and play longer sessions so I have more time at the table with deeper stacks.

Hrs...3.5
Actual win rate...$119/hr
Adjusted win rate...$52/hr

I will admit Mike, that when you joined 2+2 couple of years back i was somewhat sceptical of you and the posts you wrote in the threads. I know you catched alot of flaming, but so did i when i started out. And i am still playing, not close to broke- compared to 80 percent of the posters who have berated me through the years in various ways.

Guess i just wanted to say you proved me wrong, and these days i agree with alot of what you say+ ive surely learned a thing or three also from your reflections/posts.

And yeah, same as you i have discovered over time that 2+2 actually consist of more fish and more BS than i could ever imagine.

Hmm, tough to tell if that is worse than my $7 + $1 but no flop no drop room. I actually aim to take down a lotta pots preflop, so I'm guessing worse, but likely not by much.

GcluelessrakenoobG

Thank you, Sir. I agree with most of your posts also.

I wish I had bookmarked some of the best flaming that was sent my way so I could quote it back now. Maybe its a character flaw, but I'm a "I told you so" kinda guy. I love proving people wrong and its so easy because the loudest people are usually the most wrong.

.

Lol wp

I went back to day to play the SS 5/10, but I got seated at 2/5 waiting for a SS 5/10 seat and the game was so soft I stayed for a while. After an hour I was up $750 and I hadnt won a big pot. I just won 4-5 medium pots and didn't lose any. I played about 4 hrs and then left for dinner and came back to play the SS 5/10.

I only got 1 1/2 hrs in before the game started to suck, but I won $416 and ran $55 over All in EV.

1) EP opens $25. EP2 calls. I shove $280 from the BB with KK. EP calls with QQ HU and I hold up.

2) Couple hands later I open $35 with AA. BB calls.
Flop ($70) AKQ. He check/calls $60.
Turn ($190) J...X/X
River ($190) 4. He checks....maybe I should bet but I checked back. He had A5.

3) I open $30 As2s in the LJ. Button and BB call.

Flop ($100) Ad5d2c. BB checks. I bet $60. Button calls. The BB shoves $90 all in and we both call.
Turn ($370) Qc. Button still has $400 and I cover. I bet $200 and the button folds
River ($380) Qh. I chop with the BBs A4.

4) K8 in the BB...4 ways
Flop ($40) KK4. Check around.
Turn ($40) T. SB bets $25. I call HU
River ($90) 9. SB bets $60. I call and beat AJ.

Total played...5 hrs
Actual win rate...$166.60/hr
Adjusted win rate...$108.60/hr