The games have gotten better in my room lately as its the winter and the snowbirds all fly south for the winter. Ive been crushing for a while now. Playing well, running well and the games are softer.

A rare 5/10 game opened the other day so I thought I might jump in. I havent played 5/10 since last fall when I played about 100 hours and ran at $78/hr. But then I saw who was playing. Ive played a good amount of hours with 6 of them and I knew there would be very little action, but maybe the 2 unknowns were whales?

The dealers changed table when there down was over. (I was playing at the next table beside the 5/10). I asked the dealer how the action was at the 5/10. He said it was like watching paint dry. Someone raises $35 and everyone folds....or maybe 1 guy calls and folds to a Cbet...rinse and repeat. Sheesh! Why the hall would I play in that game? I know I can beat it but talk about boring as hell. No thanks. The 5/10 in S. Florida is all but dead.

Ive been saying this for almost 2 years now and 16 year olds from Kansas lol at me and say I'm obv not familiar with the market.

At least i picture them as 16 year olds from Kansas.

The high stakes bubble in Fl was huge, but like any bright candle it burned out quickly. Wish I had the roll/courage to play the early years (2010-13)

Sounds pretty rough. I imagine it would almost be possible to have a highly hourly at the 1/2 there than the 5/10 unless you were an absolute god at poker?

Really hoping my 5/10 games aren't that sad lol

I think the Hard Rock gets 5/10 more consistently but I have no knowledge of how good the game is.

I checked yesterday evening and they did have (2) 5/10 games but its hit and miss. If I was an actual poker pro who relied on the income to live, I guess I could go out of my way and scour Bravo all the time and find a game now and then and play whenever it was available.

But since I have other more substantial income other than poker and play poker for extra income and for the challenge, I prefer to decide when I feel like playing and play whatever the best game is at that point...instead of the other way around.

In other words, poker doesn't dictate my schedule. It would be nice if there were 5/10 games available in more rooms and at times other than some weekends and the occasional evening game at a room far from me. You would think in a poker market as big as S. Florida that would be the case

Oh I agree wholeheartedly and am in a similar boat. I play at the Isle because it is convenient and smoke free, not because it has the best game at all times. If poker was my main income source I would definitely want to be playing in at least the 1kcap 2/5 games or 5/10.

The last 4 days of the year consisted of a brutal stretch of card dead hell. I won 6 pots bigger than $20 in the last 16 hours. I still had my 2nd best month ever so I guess that's what matters.

Here are some interesting stats over the past 2 years and a little over 3000 hours.

2/5

Ive had Set over Set 8 times.....I made $1905 (I lost one of them)
Ive had Set under Set 8 times....I lost $900

Ive had AA vs KK 13 times.
I went 8-5 for 62% and won $2560

Ive had KK vs AA 15 times
I went 2-13 for 13% and lost $2485

These obviously only count hands where I saw villains cards. There may have been once or twice where I had AA vs KK on a Axx flop and he folded....or vice versa.

I also folded KK preflop twice (in the same week) and was shown AA both times.

Im pretty happy with those results. I won more than double what I lost in set over set situations with an equal number of each. I had a few more KK vs AA than I had AA vs KK and won less than my share of each and still won more money overall.


1/2

Set over Set once for +$335
Set under set 5 times for -$420

AA vs KK 5 times. I went 4-1 for 80% and profit of $360
KK vs AA 2 times. I went 1-1 for 50% and lost $200


Total

Set over set 9 times for $2240
Set under Set 13 times for -$1320

AA vs KK 18 times. Went 12-6 for 67% and +$2920
KK vs AA 17 times. Went 3-14 for 18% and -$2685

But how many times did you have a dealer named Tim?

I don't know how many people keep that many stats live, that's a little OCD haha ;P

Hmmm...I think it might be zero

Probably so, but it keeps me from getting bored and doing something stupid.

What about flush over flush?

Play less small pairs and imo

AQ hand vs crazy Asian.... you bet too much on the flop. Need to bet less it's dry vs 2 opponents. In a weird sense of reverse stupidity if you bet huge there fish don't believe you have a strong hand. Yesterday I bombed QQ on a flop of QdJd7c into 3 people. I got paid off and the person who paid me off, another Asian, said he didn't think I had a big hand because I bet so much. But in this case it is right to bet a lot. There are 2 draws, high cards, and 3 players. There's a 33% chance someone has a FD and about the same for a SD.

86s - He has twice as many J9s+ hands as he does underpairs to the J 40 vs 24. Now add QQ. If he is playing any J8s-J2s vs a raise then add 12 to his combos that might fold. It makes your play break even at best. So I'm not liking the river bet unless you think he can fold a Jack and suspects you slooooowplayed a set. So this is the element where you have to evaluate. The fact there is only a 1 gap between the K and the J means you can only rep one big pair QQ which is possible he actually has. I think tells come into play whether you should bluff or not but it's marginal. I like the $100 bet and you know why.

QQ - this is a 1 gap straight board. You should be betting it. A ZERO gap board you could consider checking it. And if you make this play I'd rather do it with KK than QQ. You only have 1 overcard to the KK. As played he caught up and you benefited.

JJ - I liked the way you played it. On this made board I see many fish betting scared or calling scared their whole range. So his bet size is less meaningful than a board like 8d 4d 3c. I wouldn't bet the river when the Ace comes.

Maybe this is a flaw in my character but I like to prove people wrong. Ive been doing it my whole life. From the time I was told I couldnt play baseball because I was too little....and I threw 4 no hitters that year and hit .750 (OK I was 10 and the other kids sucked but still...)...to when I was told my marriage would never work because we are too different. Im white, quiet and boring. Shes Hispanic, crazy and the life of the party. We've been married a long time.

I was told my several 2/5 players that 1/2 was unbeatable due to rake. I made a prop bet that not only could I beat it but I would beat it for more than $30/hr. I played 175 hours of 1/2 that month at something like $44/hr and won the bet which IIRC was 3:1 odds on $500. I forget the exact amount without looking it up.

That brings me to my point. The latest 2 things I have an inkling to prove wrong are:

1) playing 2/5 shortstacked cant be done profitably
2) The $5/$10 game with $100-$300 buy in at PBKC isnt profitable and is "like playing bingo"

Ill be proving both of these wrong in 2018. Probably not right away. Ill probably wait until the snowbirds leave and the normal 2/5 game gets stagant again.

Anyone want to help me with a fair over/under on either of these 2 scenarios for a prop bet with my doubters?

If we are talking about the same AQ hand...he led into me. I didnt bet the flop.

Oh then my bad.

As your points.... the 5/10 $300 is totally beatable. Those guys are bad.

The 1/2 is beatable when players buy in for $200 and very beatable for $300. **** if the table has $400 on the table for at least 1/2 the players I will play than game over 2/5.

2/5 short stack is beatable because your short stack beats the rake. I assume you are buying in for $100. If you play correctly you can make marginal income. 1/2 isn't beatable if every one is super short.

Though you might consider not playing short stack just to prove a point. Playing short stack is about as much fun shoving your set on the turn and some fish calls your shove for a PSB and a 3rd flush card comes river while the flips their 5th nut flush draw face up and screams "I knew my flush was coming".

I think short stacking 2/5 is definitely beatable, but not for nearly as large a margin over time as buying in full.

I've never played the 5/10 300 max game at kennel club but I think it will definitely be profitable. Few players will play their 30bb correctly, and once you get deep with bad players they will make even larger mistakes. That said it will probably be decently high variance until you get deep.

OK, so whats your over/under win rate for both games? A number that youre not sure which side you would take against me

What r you buying in with at both.

I feel like 25/hr would be a fair line at the 5/10 if you buy in for $300 and if $200 at the 2/5 maybe $15/hr.

Its also weird bc what do you mean by shortstacking? If you double up do you leave? That is true shortstacking, but difficult to do live.

Also wouldnt consider anything less than 500 hours. Even that is just pure gambling with variance.

I would buy in for $300 in the 5/10 game and $200 (thats the min) in the 2/5 game.

When shortstacking the 2/5 I would change tables if I double up and if there are no other tables to move to, I would continue playing but not count anything after that towards the shortstacking results.

I would probably only be doing either of these for 150 hours or so if I was making a prop bet. We all know that anything can happen in the short term but anything can happen in one football game too and millions of people still bet on them. They bet based on what they think the outcome will be. Whatever injuries, bad calls, bad weather or whatever else affects the outcome is just part of the luck involved just like good or bad variance in a poker prop bet.

I think your lines of $25 on the 5/10 and $15 in the shortstack 2/5 are fair as far as a bet goes and Im pretty sure I can beat both of them.

Would you even enjoy doing that though? I can’t imagine short-stacking 2/5 to be much fun, perhaps the 5/10 would be more so but still doesn’t sound great. You’ve noted a few times you don’t play professionally or need the money so presume you wouldn’t do it purely for the value of the bet.


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I enjoy being challenged. I personally believe the 5/10 to be very profitable. You can see by Avaritia's line of $25/hr that good players dont believe its worth playing, hence why there's no good players playing it. Ive played a small amount of hours in it already so I know how it plays and I know my results so far.

Short stacking the 2/5 I'm not sure about. I did play most of 2016 buying in for $300 so I have a pretty decent idea of how I would play the game but I dont really have a great handle on what my results would be. When I was buying for $300, I didnt leave when I chipped up. I just kept playing and probably played at least 1/2 the total hours over $4-$500.

I do think I can kick $15/hr's ass though or it wouldnt be worth even trying.

You do not need to prove shortstacking 2/5 is profitable mang

Martagdynya (or however the phuc he spells it). Is a short stacking hours logging beast. I've met him personally and the dude is legit. He has a couple o threads in LVL where he comes to vegas during the summer and plays poker and sleeps...and wins.

Whats his win rate?

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...tml?highlight=

this was his last thread which has 5 trips and a sht load of graphs etc.

hard to tell with all the graphs...but it looks like his lifetime is north of 20. And I believe he truly shortstacks (200$ buy in leave when double up)