Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
That too. But even in spots where it's closer. If we think we're good any % of the time, gotta ship it in there. Easily $100 missed value here.
Not exactly though. I hope we can have a debate once in a while without it sounding like Im arguing because Im not. I agree a river shove is best. But lets put some rough math to it.
The board is Qh7s3s8h7d (I said river was 7h, but the river didnt bring a flush so lets call it the 7d)
This villain is a pretty standard 2/5 player. Weak passive but not stupid and not terrible. Just avg...meaning he probably loses a bit. Based on that read and based on him limp/calling in EP what is his range with the way the hand was played?
I'll throw out some estimates
Flush draw or something like 56s maybe 40%
A weaker Q 30%
AQ 5%
KQ 5%
Middle pp like 99 maybe 5%
77 or 33 maybe 5% since he didnt crai on the turn.
Something like 76 maybe 5%.
AA/KK maybe 5%
We could debate that nobody would play AA/KK this way but we've all seen it. Hes probably going to shove the river if he hits a 7 so maybe he has a 7 less than 5% of the time. Im just trying to come up with something semi reasonable.
Using my estimates
FD or 56 (40%)...folds to river shove
Weaker Q (35%)...I win an extra $100 when he calls. He may only call 80% of the time.
AQ (5%) I lose an extra $100
KQ (5%)...break even
Middle pair (5%)...he might call 50% of the time since hes in so deep and wants to put me on AK
A Set (5%)...I lose an extra $100
AA/KK (5%)..I lose an extra $100
According to these estimates, I lost $15.50 by checking the river back.
If we say he can never play a set/ AA / KK this way and adjust the other percentages accordingly then I lost $37.50
I def agree shoving river is best. Im just saying I didnt lose $100 in value. I lost more like ~$30 in value.