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Old 10-18-2017, 01:58 PM   #901
gobbledygeek
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

I still don't feel like I'm explaining myself right, but here's an example of you looking at your EV stats over ~100 hours to see if you should be making adjustments.

Let's say over that ~100 all your all-in's, all 10 of them, are all your KK vs their QQ, where you get it all-in preflop or on the flop (which never contains an action killing Ace).

So now you compute your EV based on all 10 results in order to decide how good you ran, and based on that whether you should be making adjustments.

And all the while, the only thing that really mattered is that *you ran KK into QQ 10 times* (at least, as far as you know).

And on top of that, we're not even counting the times that you may have also sun runned unknowingly, such as all 10 times you ran QQ into KK but didn't get it in preflop and was able to get away each time postflop thanks to an Ace falling every single time.

Your All-in EV calc isn't telling the whole story, so just be careful about making conclusions on it.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 10-18-2017, 02:10 PM   #902
MikeStarr
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

I understand what youre saying, but I'm not trying to account for all kinds of variance or rungood/runbad.

If I get AA vs KK 5 times 1 month and never get KK vs AA that month then obviously Im running good. If I set get set over setted three times in one month, Im running bad.

Im only talking about All in EV which is exactly what Pokertracker tracks. How come nobody has a problem with Pokertracker doing it?

PS...I actually do keep track of a few other things that have huge affect on win rate

AA vs KK hands
KK vs AA hands
Set over set hands

And number of sets compared to number of pocket pairs that saw the flop as well as amount of profit from those sets. We are folding 80% of every hand so theres plenty of time to keep track of this stuff.

Believe it or not 70% of every dime of my profit over the past 21 months had come from the money I won with a set. That includes money lost when I have a set. That doesnt account for money lost set mining and folding, but if I take total profit from any hand where I had a set and divide by total profit won over all.... its 70%.

So if I have a month where Im struggling. Maybe Im breaking even or just winning a little bit and I look at my spread sheet and see Ive hit only 1 set in 60 hrs of play for example...then I need look no farther for why Im struggling. I dont need to rack my brain to figure out if Im doing something wrong. I dont need to make any adjustments. Im just getting unlucky and not hitting any sets. I once had 63 pps in a row that saw a flop without me hitting a set (I didnt lose all those hands but the big profits come from sets). How do you think I did during that time frame? I would be a lot more frustrated if I couldnt easily put my finger on why I was struggling.

Like Ive said already, there are tons of different kinds of variance. You may miss the flop with AK 12 times in a row. You may flop a FD and miss it 15 times in a row. You may play a big pot with a straight flush draw and miss 8 in a row. You may get all in with a straight vs a set and lose and then 5 mins later get all in with a set vs a straight and lose that too. (although the last 2 examples will be accounted for in my All in EV calculation). I'm not trying to track every kind of variance. That's impossible.

The point is that most of your profit or loss comes in a few big hands. Why not keep track of your results in those hands compared to what your results would be in those hands if you played them a million times? People complain all the time about getting outdrawn. They forget about all the times they get all in while ahead and win. They think they should win. But they shouldnt win every time so when they do win, they won more than their share. My point in all of this is to find out if I am winning my share over whatever time frame I want to look at.

I may win $300 today and feel great except that I got all in in a huge pot way behind and caught a miracle and I actually played bad. Last nights 1/2 session I lost $115. I might feel blah except that I know missed out on $325 of all in EV and played great. Just got unlucky. Maybe you guys dont need this crutch and just play like robots with no emotion. I however, hate losing more than I hate liver and onions. Keeping track of this stuff keeps me sane.
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Old 10-18-2017, 03:42 PM   #903
pokerarb
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

A+ post. Poker is a crazy game, good to impose some structure
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Old 10-18-2017, 05:37 PM   #904
gobbledygeek
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

I've got no problem with doing whatever keeps you sane, so continue to do so if it helps.

Doing an MPethy homework assignment a few years ago, I kept track of results (albeit over an admittedly lol sample size of a ~8 sessions / 2 months) with AA/KK and any pot where I put in $100+. I was sorta semi-surprised (which I shouldn't have been) to learn that a great deal of my profit was simply AA/KK.

I find it interesting that 70% of your profits over the last 21 months has come with sets. Does that worry you, especially if playing ABC poker flopping a set and stacking TP becomes more and more difficult to do? I'm currently on a fun little 1-6 session streak over my last ~52 hours which has turned into my second biggest downswing of all time; I haven't been keeping exact stats, but I'm pretty sure I'm 2 for 4 with sets in that time and definitely down money with setmining.

I remember long ago a random poster posted in the LLSNL forum how setmining (at least, the pure idea of seeing a flop with a pocket pair to flop a set and walk away otherwise) was likely unprofitable. At the time, due to the game I was playing in, I lol'ed at the thought, as it was definitely a ridiculous statement. I've recently come around to the fact that setmining (or, at least, the pure act of it) likely isn't profitable in most games I play in now (at least in a lot of situations). That would be a disturbing thought if 70% of my profits came from flopping sets. Course, I don't track my stats; it could easily be the case that all my profits even now are mostly from AA/KK/sets.

GgoodluckG
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Old 10-18-2017, 05:46 PM   #905
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I've got no problem with doing whatever keeps you sane, so continue to do so if it helps.

Doing an MPethy homework assignment a few years ago, I kept track of results (albeit over an admittedly lol sample size of a ~8 sessions / 2 months) with AA/KK and any pot where I put in $100+. I was sorta semi-surprised (which I shouldn't have been) to learn that a great deal of my profit was simply AA/KK.

I find it interesting that 70% of your profits over the last 21 months has come with sets. Does that worry you, especially if playing ABC poker flopping a set and stacking TP becomes more and more difficult to do? I'm currently on a fun little 1-6 session streak over my last ~52 hours which has turned into my second biggest downswing of all time; I haven't been keeping exact stats, but I'm pretty sure I'm 2 for 4 with sets in that time and definitely down money with setmining.

I remember long ago a random poster posted in the LLSNL forum how setmining (at least, the pure idea of seeing a flop with a pocket pair to flop a set and walk away otherwise) was likely unprofitable. At the time, due to the game I was playing in, I lol'ed at the thought, as it was definitely a ridiculous statement. I've recently come around to the fact that setmining (or, at least, the pure act of it) likely isn't profitable in most games I play in now (at least in a lot of situations). That would be a disturbing thought if 70% of my profits came from flopping sets. Course, I don't track my stats; it could easily be the case that all my profits even now are mostly from AA/KK/sets.

GgoodluckG
Wait, what? How can set mining not be profitable? There are simply profitable and unprofitable ways to play pocket pairs. If you're cold calling 5x opens from MP vs EP with 22-77, not closing the action etc, mining vs short stacks, obv you won't make money doing it.

I remember maybe 4 years ago someone once said on this forum that set mining is profitable if the open raise size is 3x and effective stacks are 100+BB deep. Since then, that's been a bit of a baseline for me - this was also in an online environment so obv v different to live. But the point is there's a right way and a wrong way to do it.

Hitting sets is where a lot of your profit should come from. Saw it today, girl calls 25 dollar iso, 689tt flop, villain cbets, she raises, he jams 100 EF she calls and shows 99 and villain walks out of the card room. Flopping sets, at least in my game, is about the best thing you can do!
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Old 10-18-2017, 10:22 PM   #906
MikeStarr
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Flopping sets is definitely very profitable but you cant just call any 3-5x raise with a pp and expect that to be profitable.

Some people are never going to pay you off like they used to.
Some people (like myself) are raising things like 76s in LP and they will almost never have a strong enough hand to pay you off when you hit a set.
If you call with any tiny pp, you will get set over setted more often
If you call a raise in EP, it could get 3 bet behind you.
If you are only raising flops with sets you will never get paid off like you used to

There are many factors, but if you are playing pps correctly, sets make tons of money. I make more BBs compared to my preflop risk in limped pots than I do in raised pots. Its a lot easier to win 50BBs with a limped set than it is to win 250BBs when you call a 5BB raise and hit a set. I also lose a lot less with a limped PP that misses than I do when I call a raise with a pp and have to fold.

Maybe next year Ill keep track of all money won with pps. I know I do lose a good deal calling raises and then folding so the money made with sets is not all pure profit.
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Old 10-18-2017, 10:43 PM   #907
MikeStarr
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

All hail 97s !!

Playing 1/2 tonight.

1) Very first hand of the session. I limp 9s7s in EP. It limps 7 ways and then the SB raises to $5. 8 to the flop

Flop ($40) Th8h7c. Checked to me. I check. MP bets $25 with $75 behind. UTG calls with $200 behind. I check raise to $100. MP calls all in. UTG also calls which I didnt expect.

Turn ($340) 7d. UTG checks. I shove. He calls.
River ($540) 2s. My hand is good. MP shows QT. UTG shows AT. Donktastic.

2) Button straddles. I limp 9c7c in the SB. I normally fold this here but the table is passive and its 97s for Gods sakes! We go 6 to the flop

Flop ($30) Ks 9h 7h. I lead $25. MP calls HU

Turn ($80) Td. I bet $50. He shoves all in for $135. UGH ! I would fold this here a lot of the time but this particular villain was mixing it up more than most 1/2 players. Plus its 97s! I call. He shows Kh8h

River ($350) 9d. I win

3) Button straddles. EP limps. I limp 9s7s in MP. We go 5 to the flop

Flop ($25) 6s6c3s. BB bets $17. I call. MP calls and LP calls

Turn ($93) 8s. BB bets $25. We are all in the $400 effective range. I decided to just call here. I think a raise may be better but they really only have 5 outs to a higher flush
that doesnt give me a straight flush and I didnt want to get reraised. The $25 into a $93 pot is so weak though. Meh. Anyway, I called. MP calls as well

River ($168) Ts. Seriously? BB checks. Im pretty sure that MP has the As. She has about $375 behind and I cover. The problem is I dont know how much she will call on a paired board. I fire out $100. She calls. BB mucks. She shows the As. I didnt see her other card. I have no idea how she even got this far unless she had As3x? Even that is pretty fishy.

I won a $400 High Hand with this hand. I also won the previous 30 minute High Hand with the following hand

4) I have A3 in the BB. 5 to the flop

Flop ($10) AQ3. I check. It checks to the button who bets $12. I call. MP also calls.
Turn ($46) 6. I check but it checks thru
River ($46) A. OK, I know one of them has an ace. I check. MP bets $20. Button calls. I check raise to $80. MP folds but the button calls. He didint show but I won. You need a minimum of AAA22 to qualify for HH. This is the weakest hand Ive ever won it with and I won back to back $400 HHs.

Needless to say I was sun running today. I won $730 plus $800 in HH money (minus $80 tips) in 4 hours of 1/2.

I did lose KK vs JJ and JJ vs QQ back to back to the same guy. Luckily he was short stacked.
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Old Yesterday, 04:35 AM   #908
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

With the straight flush I think you should bet closer to pot. It'll fold out Ks type hands but we're okay with that and I think we easily get another $80 from the nut flush vs most.

Last hand river xr size is waaay too small imo. 20, call, you should tank for like 20 minutes then bomb it to 125 or 150 coz people aren't folding trips.
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Old Yesterday, 07:51 AM   #909
MikeStarr
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
With the straight flush I think you should bet closer to pot. It'll fold out Ks type hands but we're okay with that and I think we easily get another $80 from the nut flush vs most.

Last hand river xr size is waaay too small imo. 20, call, you should tank for like 20 minutes then bomb it to 125 or 150 coz people aren't folding trips.
#3) You could be right but its hard to tell. This situation comes up so rarely. Straight flush vs Ace high flush plus board is paired. Also, I doubt this lady even knew how much was in the pot so its more of a question of is she even aware that the board is paired and she doesnt have the nuts?

#4) The button checked behind on the turn so I was putting him on a weakish Ace. I think he bets again on the turn with AT+ (and probably wouldve raised preflop with those anyway). This guy was decent. You really think he will call an even bigger check raise with like A2s/A4s/A5s? He cant beat anything but a bluff and there's another guy in the hand also so even if Im bluffing, the other guy could have him outkicked.
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Old Yesterday, 12:29 PM   #910
gobbledygeek
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Wait, what? How can set mining not be profitable? There are simply profitable and unprofitable ways to play pocket pairs. If you're cold calling 5x opens from MP vs EP with 22-77, not closing the action etc, mining vs short stacks, obv you won't make money doing it.

I remember maybe 4 years ago someone once said on this forum that set mining is profitable if the open raise size is 3x and effective stacks are 100+BB deep. Since then, that's been a bit of a baseline for me - this was also in an online environment so obv v different to live. But the point is there's a right way and a wrong way to do it.

Hitting sets is where a lot of your profit should come from. Saw it today, girl calls 25 dollar iso, 689tt flop, villain cbets, she raises, he jams 100 EF she calls and shows 99 and villain walks out of the card room. Flopping sets, at least in my game, is about the best thing you can do!
Believe me, it's taken me a long time to come around to the fact that there are very few setmining spots which are profitable in the game that I play nowadays (compared to the one I played in the past). In the past, I'm fairly positive open limping small pairs in EP to setmine was quite profitable as my games were quite passive preflop and quite lol payoffy spewy postflop. Now my games are quite aggro loose preflop and not payoffy postflop. So I've had to adjust my strategy by open folding small pairs in EP (and even MP if it doesn't look like it is going multiway for cheap). It's not as simple as saying "it's only a 3bb raise and he has 100bb's" (ex. you think you'd be profitable against Phil Ivey in this spot?); it is very table / opponent dependent. ETA: Mike also makes a lot of good points above regarding this. I still think there are profitable setmining spots in my new table conditions, but they aren't nearly as abundant as they once were (mostly they consist of getting into a cheap multiway limped pot in position).

Also, if you think the girl in your example above made a profitable setmining-only call by calling off what sounds like 1/5th of her stack preflop, you're mistaken. She *easily* loses money on this long term (at least with regards to treating this case as setmining-only, which is admittedly debatable in this case with a hand as strong as 99).

GcluelesssetminingnoobG
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Old Yesterday, 02:05 PM   #911
meale
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

100bb effective not $100 :')
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Old Yesterday, 03:27 PM   #912
gobbledygeek
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

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100bb effective not $100 :')
Yeah, I was wondering about that.

Assuming 2/5 so $500? Fair enough, in least in a game where tards seem to be slinging in huge money at every opportunity. But even then it depends what he had. If he has offsuit big overpair, lol obviously. But he could have easily also had TT (overpair + OESD + perhaps backdoor flush draw) / JJ (overpair + gutshot + perhaps backdoor flush draw) / flushdraw (I'm assuming an underset shows for sympathy) and all of a sudden even her big killing in this case isn't nearly as crushing as it seems (although obviously getting in her money good). Heck, even a lol AA sucks out a decent amount of the time (~8%).

Git'smoreofanillusionthanyoumayrealize,althoughobv iouslygamedependent,imoG
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Old Yesterday, 03:33 PM   #913
meale
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Ofc, just wanted to illustrate how nutted sets are in my game. But from what I've read, you seem to have a much tougher game on amerage that I do!
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Old Yesterday, 05:40 PM   #914
MikeStarr
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

GG,

Where are you playing? And what at what times?
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Old Yesterday, 05:46 PM   #915
gobbledygeek
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Um... Saskatchewan... yeah, that's it... Saskatchewan...

ETA: Not a big believer in time-of-day / day thing around here since the game is just one stake and simply reg infested. I've sat in the best game ever like 10:00am on a Sunday / 4:15pm on a Monday and the worst game ever on a Friday/Saturday at 7:30pm (and of course vice-versa). It just all depends who happens to be sitting in the game.

GChiefWil-yum'sBingoandPokerEmporium,offroute9,takealeftatth ecowG
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Old Yesterday, 05:56 PM   #916
MikeStarr
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Re: Taking unorthodox lines to live poker success

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Um... Saskatchewan... yeah, that's it... Saskatchewan...

ETA: Not a big believer in time-of-day / day thing around here since the game is just one stake and simply reg infested. I've sat in the best game ever like 10:00am on a Sunday / 4:15pm on a Monday and the worst game ever on a Friday/Saturday at 7:30pm (and of course vice-versa). It just all depends who happens to be sitting in the game.

GChiefWil-yum'sBingoandPokerEmporium,offroute9,takealeftatth ecowG
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