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Turn ($230) 5c. He shoves $340. WTF? Thinking back over it now, this is probably a fold against this guy but I called. He had Jd9d and I rivered a 4th diamond. I didnt think he would limp UTG and call $25 with that but obviously I was wrong. The question is am I still running bad by getting out flopped in hands that are hard to get away from or am I running good because I actually hit this one. If I had folded the turn I would for sure think Im still running bad.
Turn is defo a fold. Partly because you block like 100% of his bluffs and as you say, he's not the type of guy to really spazz out here: "Mostly standard ABC type guy. He doesnt slow play. He just plays decent cards and pounds people when he hits." Best case scenario he has a set - either way you have like 15% equity on the turn and he's overbet the pot...
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I thought so too until I stoved it (and yes, I agree this almost never a semi-bluff given the villain description):
We have 35% equity vs KT suited/TT/44/flopped flushes (realistic ones like suited connectors and one-gappers).
Did you really stove it?
You don't have 35% equity here at all. I think it's also fairly optimistic to think villain will play all his KT this way.
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If you add a hand like AxJd or something that's trying to fold out top pair
Really? Lmao that's 100% never ever the case and you know it. Obv you're just looking for a way to increase your equity in this spot and feel better about it, but you and I both know this villain makes this play exactly 0% of the time.
It's okay to have made a mistake. **** I have made a few good mistakes over the past couple days myself. I just don't get why can't accept that and instead try desperately to rationalise your play.
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It's razor-thin, but its a call.
Saying this adds no value to your game. You know it's a fold, you have 13% vs flopped flushes which is what villain will have here almost every time. There's a fairly big discrepancy between 13% and 37%, enough that you should perhaps consider the fact that you may have made a mistake here...