I agree that the online wizards have much better in a vacuum, fundamental poker skills. One thing I see over and over though is that they know all the math, but they assign ranges that are vastly incorrect for the rec players, and worse, drastically misunderstand how the rec players will play their ranges.

Sure. But I don't put Shai on being a 20 something internet geek. Seems like a math geek, but doesn't sound like he has no self awareness; nor do I put him on being naive.

Bingo! We have a winner

I think hes very naive about live poker in general. Actually I dont think it. I know it because Ive read lots of his posts. He will tell you himself he just started playing live. He doesn't have the slightest clue how different online and live are and how different 1/2 and 2/5 are.

If I could have his math skills and the rest of my skills, sure I would make more. I just think hes mis-applying his math skills.

I think X'ing river is good here. You might have most of his range beat but most of his range isn't calling a river bet. So if lets say you beat 100 combos and lose to 20 combos. Maybe only 10 of those losing combos calls a river bet while 15 of the combos that beat you call a river bet. Then checking is fine.

I'll take your line. I can find a fold here. This isn't a XMRs. It's more. This is a value raise and it isn't a draw or he might just ship it. I'd see this range as AK, A6, A5, 66, 55.... I have folded in these spots. But I do have problems folding when these guys are offering me 4:1 or more on the river with this tiny bets like $30 into $120.

OoOoooOh I know who this is. Love this guy.

I dont think you know who maniac in HH 3 is.

I have a really bad back. 17 years ago I had neck surgery and 2 years ago I had back surgery. When I had the back surgery I was told I also needed another neck surgery but I could only have one at a time. My neck was bothering me a lot but my back was 100 times worse at that point so I chose the back surgery. Before the surgery I did not sit down for 4 months. Im not joking. I could stand and I could lay down but I couldnt sit down. I ate standing up. I surfed the internet standing up and I watched TV laying down. It took a long time to heal after the surgery, but about 6 months later I was able to sit for extended periods (while taking pain killers) and was able to play poker.

Here we are 2 years post surgery and I still have lots of problems. Sitting and playing poker for hours makes it worse so Im trying to cut back on my hours and take lots of breaks to walk around and keep my back loose.

Anyway I played a 3 hour session today. I was pretty card dead and only won like 5-6 hands but I didnt lose a single hand that I put any money into so I ended the session +$800.

1) 2 limps. I raise to $30 AcQs. 1 caller behind me and both limpers called.
Flop ($125) As4c3c. Checked to me. Im sure everyone will hate this but I checked. The guy who was last to act bet $85. It folded back to me. He had $200 behind. As I was thinking about how to proceed,

he says "I have you beat"
I said "Im not sure about that"
He slightly lifts the corner of his cards and shows me the Ad.

This guy is not a great player and calls raises with all kinds of junk, but once he showed me the ace, I was not going to fold. If he has 2 pair so be it. I put him on AT/AJ and called.

Turn ($295) 6c. X/X
River ($295) Kc. I bet $100 and he folded AdKd face up. Oops. He did have me beat on the flop.

2) 2 limps. I raise to $30 JJ. Both limpers call. EP limper is a fish. MP limper is a petty strong and tricky player who sometimes spews chips but is playing solid today.
Flop ($95) 9h5s5c. EP leads $100 with $100 behind. MP folds. I shove all in and he calls with As9s. MHIG.

3) The good player from Hand #2 opens to $15. I decide to just call with QhQd. Both blinds call
Flop ($60) 9c 3c 3s. Checked to me. I bet $40. SB calls HU
Turn ($140) 8d. He checks. I bet $100. He calls
River ($340) Tc. He checks. We have about $400 effective remaining. I beat 98 and T9, but lose to a flush. Would he really check a flush? Not sure so I checked behind. He had 97 offsuit. I doubt he wouldve called another $175 but who knows. Maybe I shouldve bet.

4) Limped pot. I have 44 in the BB. 4 to the flop
Flop ($20) 8d4d6c. I check. It checks to the button who bets $20. I call. Im taking a risk with the flush draw but the pot is small so Im not all that worried about having to fold if someone else calls. I find that people will pound the turn again with any 8 or even a 6 if they think Im chasing the flush, but they will fold if I check raise. All others fold so we are HU.
Turn ($60) Th. I check and he bets $75. Really? $75 into a $60 pot? I cr to $200 and he folds before I even push the 2 stacks of reds into the pot.

5) LP opens to $20. I call in the BB with KsJc. I normally just fold this but this guy is a fish.
Flop ($40) QsJs4d. I lead $20 and he calls.
Turn ($80) Ts. X/X
River ($80) 3d. X/X. MHIG

Why do you decide to just call w QQ in H3. What is your reasoning? If he's opening 97o, he's probably defending to 3b fairly liberally too... Also I'd reevaluate how "good" you think this good player is if he's opening 97o... If he opens from LP, even more reason to 3b IP.

Also don't like your logic with hand 4. It's 4 to the flop, you absolutely need to raise the flop - you give the other two players far too good pot odds on a board where you're gonna be boned on a lot of turns.

Hand 5, why are you leading? What's the logic?

#3) I think you misread something. Nobody opened with 97 in any hand I posted. In this hand a guy called the $15 raise with 97 but it wasnt the good player. The good player opened preflop and then check/folded the flop. QQ is almost always a 3 bet. I called this time because the good player was playing tight today and hadnt raised from EP all day. Sometimes flatting could cost me money, sometimes playing less face up makes me extra money. The guy I went to showdown with wouldve never called a 3 bet with 97 so it worked this time, but obviously its dangerous.

#4) I agree that a person should just about always be leading this flop or check raising the flop. For a long time Ive been trying to determine if players are more likely to fire a big 2nd bet with weak hands or even air when their opponent calls a flop bet on a flush draw board.

In other words if he bets a 8d6h4c flop, will he check behind with an 8 but fire again on the turn if the board if 8d6h4d.

Ive been trying to test out that hypothesis lately. I still havent really concluded anything. I think this time I was right though. If the pot was raised preflop I would be playing completely differently. Most likely I would lead out.

#5) The flop QsJs4d. There are 2 draws and I think I have the best hand with KJ a lot of the time so I led out. I know people here hate this logic but when I have a weakish hand but I think Im ahead, I think betting is better in general. If I check and he bets $30 and I think Im ahead I need to call.
Hes likely to put me on a draw and fire $70 on the turn with his entire range. Can I call that OOP with another street to come? Probably not. Now I will be folding the best hand a good portion of the time.

Leading out somewhat takes his positional advantage away, unless he has the balls to raise my flop lead but that's a rare person who will do that as a bluff.

Here's an example hand

a) Strong player opens OTB to $15. I call with JsTs in the SB HU. I thought about 3 betting him but decided against it.
Flop ($35) KhTc3h. I check and he checks back
Turn ($35) 3d. I should be ahead here most of the time. I couldve led the flop but didnt. I could lead here but checked again. Now he bets $25. I cal
River ($85) 8s. I think my best play here is to lead out about $40. He might call with a very weak hand like A high or a mid pair like 66 putting me on a missed FD. Or he might just fold his garbage hands. Its unlikely he will raise me without a strong hand unless he wants to get frisky and make a big raise but again that's very rare.

Instead, I check to him again and he bet $100. Now I have no idea where I am. Its a very good bet on his part. He can have anything from a K to total air. I dont think calling and trying to guess what he has is a good plan so I folded. Playing this weakish hand this passively against a good player OP is never going to work long term. I think I need to lead one of the 3 streets.

^^ If he's indeed a good player, he could easily float you if you lead flop or turn. Unless it's uncommon in your typical games.

Hand #1 "Old jedi mind trick play".... works everytime. I have no comment for that hand except the one you made.

Hand #3 I think the line is fine. Checking or betting turn is fine depending.

Hand #4 A flop XR would be appropriate usually. So many cards kill your action on the turn and he could very well have a FD.

Hand #5 KJo is usually a 3b hand in this spot. But a call isn't bad if your opponent plays very face up on the flop. At times a passive opponent will just call down and let you value own yourself but if given the head he flips his hand face up. Why the donk bet? You are only getting better or high equity to call and worse to fold. If you had TPGK I don't mind considering all the draws.

This is a call IMO. If this player is a strong player he should be betting all his draws, all his TP hands, all his Tx hands on the flop. Hands he checks are underpairs to the T, QQ, 3x.

Your hand looks incredibly weak on all streets by Xing and considering this heavy draw board. His bet is very polarizing to a 3x and 88 or nothing about 19 combos. You need to call here a certain percentage of the time not to be exploited. He does make it tough with a PSB on the river as 1/3rd of his river big bets should be bluffs for 2/3rd value optimally. If his bluff includes 97 here as a busted draw + 3 bull**** bluff combos that alone puts you are 19 combos. There are definitely a few more here in his bluff range.

But it depends on your definition of a strong player there. There is one TAG there I would 100% fold vs and another I would 100% call in this spot because of their style. But in a vacuum I think my analysis above is right.

I would check a K on that flop almost all the time in this spot. Why? If I open OTB, Im liable to have any K. I could have AK all the way down to K2s. If I bet the flop and he calls, I could be out kicked. Sure, he will call with a T most of the time but I cant play a big pot. If I check the turn I will get a lot more value out of hands worse than TP. He could be doing the same thing to me. He could easily have a K in this hand. Or he could easily have complete air. That's why his river bet is a good one. I dont mind a call or a fold. Its just a complete guess as to what he has and I hate calling when Im just guessing.

That's true. That's why playing a tough playing OOP is a losing proposition.

If you raised KJ and got this flop would you CBet it? So why not bet the flop when you are the caller? I think I'm ahead most of the time and I want value. I could say the same thing about a CBet. Why Cbet when he will only call with better or with a hand with high equity?

For the following reasons.

When you donk bet you give zero chance of the person stealing to bluff. If they are passive-predictable-sticky you give them no chance to catch up with a weaker hand and you gain less information about their hand.

When you you bet as the preflop raiser you are charging all the draws he can have. You get value from worse hands. The hands on that board that will fold will have a hard time calling you down if the board becomes more scary while they improve like a flush card T and he holds 87o. Also any A, K, T, or flush will kill your action vs a hand like 88 which might call one bet on the flop.

Now you can make an argument as the preflop raiser to check back that flop if your opponent is incredibly aggressive and will XR a range of hands that puts a lot of pressure on you and is balanced between better hands and draws while more often correctly folding most weakest hands that he would otherwise bluff with.

You can make an argument for donk betting against a preflop raiser to control the action and keep the SPRs high if by donk betting you keep them predictable. Like donk betting a draw vs a player who will always just call but if checked to will blast the flop with any piece of it making later decisions harder. But this is a rare situation. I do know one player where this tactic should work vs.

If that board was AJ4r then checking the flop as the preflop raiser is correct usually because either you are beat or they only have 3 outs on you to your 2nd pair. Due to the low # of outs when ahead it increases their bluff chance. Also keeps the pot small.

Why cant I lead out and "charge all draws and get value from worse hands" just because I called preflop as opposed to raising preflop?

That makes no sense to me. The reason people dont lead out into the preflop raiser is that they want to win his Cbet when they are ahead because they know most preflop raisers will CBet most of the time. On a flop like this with mulitple draws, Id rather lead out to "charge draws and get value from worse hands" than hope he CBets and call.

A donk bet will work if your bet will give you perfect information on your opponent's strength, will pay off 2 streets with worse, and he doesn't bluff, not even a draw.

But I find that very rare.

OK, but you still havent said why its any different from when I'm the preflop raiser.

There was a raise and a call. I have KsJc on a QsJsX board. Why does it matter if Im the preflop raiser or the caller? A donk bet and a preflop raisers CBet can accomplish the exact same thing. The main difference is everyone expects the raiser to bet but not for the caller to bet. The caller normally doesnt want to bet if he thinks hes ahead because he wants to collect the inevitable Cbet money. I like to do what other people dont do or dont expect.

I did above and I gave you an exception of when you can donk bet.

If you are telling me the player is what I described the ideal situation to donk bet then it's right. Most of the time it is not.

Whoops, mb.

Could have just been card dead and doesn't necessarily mean they've completely nitted up from that session onwards. I think you know this and I think you realise the benefits of 3betting outweigh the cons here. There's a HUGE difference between flatting QQ here and flatting AA.

This is just unnecessary man, you're making it way harder than it needs to be. This is not a HU SRP with super wide ranges - this is a million way hand where the last thing you need to be worrying about is whether some hypothetical player will bet twice. It's basically FPS - you have the nuts, raise. Get some value!

In a multiway pot where > half the deck are overcards/bad for 8x, the obv answer is they're not going to barrel. And if they do, you're not going to make much by raising when every turn is bad. Raise flop because you can still get value from a wider range of hands.

That doesn't explain why you chose to bet instead of xc. You say yourself, people are going to cbet more than half the time, so why not xc instead of blowing potential cbets out of the pot?

Once more I think you're misapplying this. If this were a 4-way limped pot and you had a weak top pair, sure, lead out. But this is a completely different situation. You can't lead/call, lead/folding sucks, and you're in the dark on every turn. Check the flop, acquire information about your opponents range, and proceed from there no?

Huh? How is leading the best play here? You have a bluff catcher. Very rarely will you get called by worse, often you'll get raised and not know what's going on, and every other time, you'll fold out his river bluffs. As winky said, he will have a LOT of river bluffs that take this line so you should be stoked about xc turn and river.

**** it's live poker cmon man how often are people overbetting river after checking flop. Just call turn and make a decision on the river instead of over-complicating it. FWIW, pretty sure folding river is the best choice. Realistically, he will cbet all his draws otf, and likely has some 3x in his xb range. He should have some KQ type **** as well and could feasibly bet this size w this hand. Don't think he has many draws that x flop bet turn and river so river fold is fine. But man just be careful, if this "good player" sees you lead w weak ranges too often, he's going to destroy you every time and you're gonna be folding 100%.

That's not true at all. Some hands we simply have to defend oop because it's higher ev than folding our blind. If you're not confident playing OOP vs regs, you probably need to do some range work off-table.

=================

TBH mate winky has been spot on in absolutely everything he's said re your last post. IMO you should heed his advice instead of looking for ways to justify your play.

Your logic here is completely backwards. The fact that we have a weakish hand means we should want to play a small pot, not a big one. It also means it's harder to get value from worse and this hand will work better as a bluff catcher.

I'm not sure what you consider a "good player" but if a good player is someone that can beat 5/T then you would get ****ing destroyed playing such weak hands so aggressively...especially considering you are too scared to even call a check/bet/bet line in this spot.

BTW, I'm not sure why you would be just "guessing." Sure, poker is a game of imperfect information so you are technically guessing but these should be educated guesses based on a wealth of experience that should give you a good idea of villain's likely holdings which along with the pot odds will help you form your decision.

This is definitely true.

Technically you're both right but blind defense is not nearly as important of a concept in live low stakes as it is in other formats due to the large size of the opens, the high rake, and very little dead money (only blinds, no antes). I haven't been following this thread closely so I'm not sure what stakes this hand took place at but at 1/2 a $15 raise is 7.5x, whereas at 2/5 a $15 raise is only 3x and we should obviously be calling this much wider at 2/5 than at 1/2 given the dead money in the pot as well as the villain's wider opening range (not to mention stack depths which are likely shorter at 1/2).

Of course ^. I'm not saying we need to defend super wide but with reference to the KJo hand I think OP said he usually folds it, which I think is a pretty big leak from SB Vs LP.

I have a bluff catcher that I folded and didnt catch anything. I dont know if he was bluffing the river or not. If I folded the best hand here, I lost a ton of equity. If I had bet the river I wouldve taken away his chance to bluff but if Im not going to call anyway, that makes no difference.

The pot was $85 on the river.

I checked and he bet $100

This guy is very good. Hes only been in town for a week or 2 so I dont have tons of time with him but enough to know hes as good or better than me. He plays 5/10 when it runs.

I dont know how often hes bluffing here. This situation doesnt come up very often against the same guy in 10-15 hours of poker. If Im going to fold to his river bet, bluff catching is worthless. If I bet $50 and he folds 95% of his bluffs and bluff raises 5% of the time, and calls or raises with his value hands, I do a lot better than when I fold to his bluff and his value bets.

BTW...these 2 similar hands where I called a raise and flopped 2nd pair are against 2 different players. One was weak and 1 was strong. I led into the weak player and won the hand. I checked vs the strong player and lost the hand when I folded the river. That doesnt mean either line was right or wrong. Im just saying leading is probably better vs a bad player than it would be vs a tough player.

Clearly the line 99% of people take when calling a raise and flopping a decent to great hand is to check/call. That doesnt mean its always the best line though. Most peoples default lines in poker are bad because they are bad players. Im not saying you should lead into the raiser every time with a decent hand. Im just saying mixing it up is good.

I had another hand yesterday where I called a $15 raise from the BB with AJ. Flop was Q92. I led out and he folded. Do I really want to check/call with A high here? Not really. Id rather lead out and most avg players will fold mid pairs and pretty much anything that isnt an overpair or a Q.