.

Results in hand 6?

Sorry, I didn't mean I would put villain exactly on KK, though that's what it sounded like. When reading this hand I immediately thought "set" as it reminded me of the hand I was in. It just brought the possibility to the forefront of my mind, but we should not be results oriented.

I think against a hand like KQ or possibly a set you're better off raising the flop, with the intent of folding if you get 3-bet, as THEN you're pretty sure you're facing a set.

The main point regarding that hand was that you should not raise the turn. Forget about sets. Against any made hand like top pair or overpair or even 2nd pair you're not doing well. Just seems raising will only fold out hands you beat like weak pairs and crummy draws. You might fold out some better flush draws (I'm skeptical, but maybe), but would villain donk twice with a flush draw? A better way for villain to aggressively play a flush draw would be to make a large x/r OTF. If villain will fold most of his top pairs and overpairs raising is okay.

Most people will and should fold TP if you raise the turn to $200 because Im mostly going to have a big hand when I raise that much on the turn. But because a lot of them dont, I normally dont raise. People make huge mistakes by calling too much so you can easily get away with never bluffing and just pounding chips into the pot with big hands.

He had AT

A) "Most people will and should fold TP if you raise the turn to $200"

B) "People make huge mistakes by calling too much"

Maybe I'm missing something but I'm not following your reasoning...do they fold too much or call too much?

That's pretty contradictory obviously. Its really about the size of the bet and the escalation from $50 to $200 that I find makes most people fold. However, the more I play the less I try these moves because you just dont have to bluff to win at a really nice win rate. People pay me off constantly and I rarely make any big bluffs. I could've easily just have called the turn and still been paid off handsomely on the river if I hit.

That would be my default play. This may sound like a cop out, but when the turn card hit, I though about how a lot of 2+2ers would play the hand and that's why I raised. I do still think it would've worked if he had KJ or less though. Maybe KQ.

I posted a hand the other day
Limped pot
832 flop. There was a $30 bet and 2 calls
Turn K. There was a $120 all in and a call. I shoved for $400ish. The guy who called the $120 folded KJ. Not exactly the same but similar hand. KJ is never good there. The river was a J and the guy was pissed until I tabled my hand.

Here's another example of why making big bluffs is so unnecessary to crush this game at these stakes. Bluffing weak tight daytime nits is fine, but other than that I think its mostly spew.

This was yesterday. Its a Holiday type situation. There are bad rec players surrounding me in every direction. There's one pretty decent player at my table. The rest of them are insane. This table is 100% different from what I see here normally.

Button straddles. The SB throws in 5 red. He almost immediately tried to "unraise" but gets called by UTG+1. Its really obvious SB just wanted to call but he cant take it back now. I decide to take advantage and 3 bet super lite to steal. I raise to $115. Ive been card dead for hours so my image is tight as hell. The cutoff cold calls my $115 and we go HU.

Flop ($295) QdTd7d. The only hands I think he could possibly cold call $115 and then call a $300 shove with this flop are

TT
QQ
JdJx
AdKd
Maybe KK/AA if he decided to flat preflop with those.

So I shove. Its $300 to him. He calls with AhTh. That's how bad some of these players are. Imagine his surprise when the turn was the 9d and he still won? I actually had 24% equity vs his hand and I would've needed 34% equity to call if HE had shoved this flop so I wasnt a million miles behind even though he called. This play shouldve worked against this hand, but even when he had a hand he cant call with he still called.

About 45 mins later

2 EP limps. I limp 33 in MP. The ATs fish limps. The button raises to $25 and everybody calls.
Flop ($125) 9s6s3d. Checked to me. I check. The fish bets $150. It folds back to me. I shove for $500. He thinks for about 15 seconds and calls with 9h5h. Amazing.

I played an long 8 hour session at this table because it was so ridiculously bad and I couldnt pull myself away. I went thru a 4 hour stretch where I won 1 hand. I bluffed off a stack but still ended up $100.

Moral of the story....keep your big bluffs to an absolute minimum. They want to call.

Or, bluff flops less

What do you mean "or" bluff flops less? How is that different than "keep your big bluffs to an absolute minimum"?

Are you saying its OK to bluff turns or rivers but not so much bluff flops?

I told mike he bluffed too much money. He could have accomplished the same think with a bet of $200.

If $300 guarantees he folds 45% of the time... if I pass his range through the filter and our opponent has Ad or a hand he calls 55% of the time.
$200 doesn't change that number.
$150 might change that number by 15% but even that is a better +EV play than $300. We assume he floats with JJ on the flop but folds AK no diamonds.

If you include 2nd NFD Kd then he calls 62.5% of his range.

Correct. Especially rivers.

This makes no sense to me. There's no way he has a hand he can call with 55% of the time. No possible way. At least not a sane opponent that should be folding AhTh. If I realized this guy was THIS bad, I wouldve just checked and given up.

The pot was almost $300 on the flop. If I have any actual hand...like the ones I said he could call with, Im just shoving in. Im never betting less when effective stacks are only $300 left. So why would I bluff less than all in? Im bluffing here like once in a purple moon. Forget about a blue moon.

Id like to know what hands you think a avg player has in his range that call a $115 3 bet. Lets start there.

Another Holiday session today. Another session surrounded by donks. Everywhere I looked there were donks making donkey plays. However, it was an up and down session and I had to scrape and claw for every scrap as I couldnt really make anything happen or get any cards except for 2 nice hands.

1) I have 53 in the BB. Limped pot 4 ways.
Flop ($20) T42. SB checks. I bet $10. Folds back to the SB who cr to $30. Hes a 5/10 player but honestly i cant see any way that he beats 5/10. Ive taken a lot of money from him and he always bitches and moans about the way I played my hand. One hand he raised $35 after a limper or 2. I know that means he has a big pair so I just flat called with KK. I ended up busting his JJ on a rag flop and he started bitching about me not reraising preflop. Sorry I didnt let you know what I had Mr 5/10 donk.

Anyway, I call the raise.

Turn ($80) 6. He bets $50. I raise to $150 and he calls
River ($380) 6. He checks. I have about $170ish left. What do we think he has? He check raised that flop from the SB. If he has T4, T2 or 42 (which are in his SB range), the river counterfeited him since he has to put me at the very least on a big T. If he had 44 or 22, he has me beat. Can he have just a T here and will he call an all in with it? I didnt think he would so I checked back. He had QT. Maybe a mistake. Who knows. What I do know is he started bitching that I didnt "bet the nuts" and he immediately sat out for an orbit. Such a little *****.

2) Limped pot. I have Ah6d in the BB. 4 to the flop
Flop ($20) 6h4h2d. I check. UTG seems to be pretty good player and bets $15. MP call. Honestly I just fold here a lot of the time but I called this time.
Turn ($65) Qh. I led $20. UTG seemed a little miffed but called. MP folded.
River ($105) Th. I bet $100. He tank/folded.

3) Limped pot 5 ways. I have 44 in the BB.
Flop ($25) K94. I bet $20. Fish OTB calls.
Turn ($65) T. I bet $50. He raised to $110. Meh. Looks like QJ to me. Maybe 2 pair. I call.
River ($285) Q. I check and he instashoved for $250ish. I folded.

4) Limped pot 4 way. I have Js9s in the BB.
Flop ($20) 6s3s3c. I bet $15 and got 1 MP caller.
Turn ($50) 7h. I bet $30. He calls.
River ($110) Tc. I bet $50. He calls with 44. Hands like this are why I bluff less and less each session.

5) EP limps. I limp 88 in MP. LP limps. SB raises to $25. EP folds. I call and we end up HU. I have a pretty rock solid read on this guy. We are biddies but Ive taken a lot of money from him. Hes got lots of leaks but is a winner overall. Hes either got AK or a big pair here and his flop bet will tell me which it is.

Flop ($60) 944. He bets $25. Hello Mr AK! He has only $100 behind. I min raise to $50. He thinks and calls.
Turn ($160) 2. He checks. I shove and he folds.

6) 2 limps. I go $30 AQ and get 3 calls.
Flop ($125) Ks7s2c. Checked to me. I check and it checks around.
Turn ($125) 9s. Checked to me. I check. Next guy bets $70. BB calls
River ($265) Th. BB checks. LP shoves for like $290. BB calls with AK and loses to 4s5s.

7) EP opens to $25. I call with AdKd. The winner from hand #6 calls and we go 3 to the flop
Flop ($80) KhJhAs. EP checks. I bet $50. Villain calls. EP preflop raiser folds
Turn ($180). 4d. We are both $1000+ deep. I have no idea why but I checked. This is basically a similar mistake that I made with KQ the other day but at least this was HU and not 3 ways. He checks back.
River ($180) 8s. I bet $125. He thought a long time so he was either hollywooding a missed FD or he had something like AQ/AT. He finally folded.

8) I open to $20 9c8c in the LJ. The button 3 bets to $60. BB cold calls. The button is on eternal tilt. Hes terrible and is always griping and moaning about bad beats. Half the time hes lying about the cards he had and really just donked money off with garbage. I really wanted to call but I folded.
Flop ($140) Qc8s6c. Sheesh! BB checks. Button bets $125 and BB calls
Turn ($390) 7d. Sheesh! BB shoves all in for $250ish. Button folds and told me he had AcKc. This hand wouldve been huge if I had called preflop.

9) One orbit later. Same guy in OTB and straddles. It folds to me and I raise to $30 with Ts9s. He calls.
Flop ($65) Tc9c3c. I bet $55. He insta shoves all in for $310 total. I call.

Turn is a T.
River was some brick. I shouldve made him show since he went all in but I didnt. I tabled my hand and he starts moaning about how he had the nut flush and got outdrawn again...except that he picked his cards up high enough that I saw the Ad. NO idea what he really had but for 20 mins he was still talking about his nut flush.

Another good day. The 4 day holiday donk extravaganza is over so Im sure it will go back to nitsville tomorrow.

I hit $83/hr over these last 4 donktastic days.
Since going back to 2/5 from my short 1/2 run....Im at $69/hr over about 80 hrs. Clearly not sustainable but I do feel more focused and I think going down in stakes every now and then would do most people some good.

Hand 5 is wishful thinking at best.

That's as far as I read.

How so? He made a small flop bet telling me he didn't have a pair. This guy bets $40-$50 if he has an overpair. I min raised him and he called trying to hit his 6 outter. He missed. I shoved and he folded because he had nothing. I dont get what you mean by wishful thinking.

I think the point is villain's calling range is inelastic here. You're better off bluffing a smaller amount than shoving as you risk less and he folds close to the same frequency.

Also agree with Avaritia. At low stakes players often get sticky on the flop but play more straightforwardly on the turn and even more so on the river. Many players will chase weak draws to the turn, and some to the river, but they will just fold to like 2/3 pot river bets way, way too often.

But I'm not sure it was a bad call from villain. From the other player's point of view (the hand he had AT), you are likely C-betting most flops. Yet you often miss the flop. The call is actually fine unless you don't C-bet much. Players will fold to flop C-bets more often if there's the threat of additional bets. In this hand he just has to be ahead of you over 1/3 the time to justify calling.

Suppose you C-bet 70% of the time. Generally you connect with flops about 35% of the time. On this specific flop of QdTd7d, it might be a little higher, but the player with AT has some blockers also, so let's assume 35%. You bet $300 into $295.

Let's look at the EV of calling from the other guy's POV.

P(C-bet | connected) = P(C-bet AND connected)/P(connected)

You likely C-bet 100% when you connect with the flop, so P(C-bet | connected) = 1, i.e.,

P(C-bet AND connected)/P(connected) = 1

Therefore P(C-bet AND connected) = P(connected)

We need to calculate P(connected | C-bet)

P(connected | C-bet) = P(connected AND C-bet)/P(C-bet), which by substitution is

P(connected | C-bet) = P(connected) / P(C-bet)

P(connected | C-bet) = .35 / .7 = .5

Now how many of your "connects" actually are ahead of AT? Maybe 1/2?

Then P(Vbehind) = P(connected | C-bet) * 1/2 = 1/4
And P(Vahead) = 3/4

So villain should be ahead about 3/4 of the time when you C-bet. For simplicity we assume villain wins when ahead and loses when behind (correcting for this makes little difference as he should catch up when behind as often as you do)

EV(Vcall) = 3/4*(300+295) - 1/4(300) = 371.25

From villain's perspective, calling with AT is massively profitable.

For it not to be profitable, we need EV(Vcall) < 0, which happens if P(Vbehind) > 119/79 ~ .6648

How rarely must you C-bet that villain should fold? Set

P(Vbehind) > 119/79 or P(connected | C-bet)*1/2 > 119/79 or P(connected | C-bet) > 119/158

Equivalently, P(connected)/P(C-bet) > 119/158 or .35/P(C-bet) > 119/158

P(C-bet) < 79/170 ~ .4647

So if you C-bet more than 46.47% in this spot then it's a good call from villain.

Some aspects of this model might be a little off, but it's not really the point. If you C-bet anywhere close to how often most players would, it's a good call with AT.

And note this doesn't mean you should just check/fold here necessarily, but due to the amount of dead money in the pot 2nd pair + Ace overcard + BDSD is plenty to call IMO. Again, unless you would rarely C-bet here. And if villain thinks you might slowplay truly strong hands like a flush or a set then he has even more reason to call.

Don't forget I 3 bet to $115 preflop. A 3 bet to $115 is probably going to be a bluff ike 5% of the time. So the other 95% of the time, when I connect with that flop, Im going to be ahead of AT a heck of a lot more than 50% of the time. Probably closer to 80-90% of the time. Connecting with that flop to me means I have an overpair and/or a big diamond which includes all hands a person normally 3 bets with except for AK without a diamond. You have to discount some of the non diamond AK hands because I may not bet those.

Well I can't calculate it exactly without knowing your precise 3-bet range, which hands you consider connects, and exactly which hands you C-bet here. But you should note even if you're ahead 80 or 90 percent of the time you connect, it's probably still a call unless you rarely C-bet your misses.

Villain's call with AT may be bad if your 3-bet range is super strong AND you don't C-bet when you miss. But even if this is true, does he know that? Should he? From his perspective it doesn't seem like a bad call given the 2:1 pot odds.

Also possible he just felt there was something fishy about your 3-bet sizing and/or flop shove, particularly if you rarely do this. Dunno. I don't think the call is as bad as you think though.

Well if he picked up on the fact that I may be 3 betting lite due to the SB's mistake raise then more power to him. However, Ive busted this guy for full stacks probably an avg of 50% of the times Ive played with him which may be twice a month. Ive done it just like I did with the set of 3s hand. Just wait for a strong hand and pile chips in and even though it should be obvious to a bystander that I have a monster he still calls. That makes my play pretty bad in this hand and I take full responsibility for that, but it certainly doesn't make his call less bad.

I promise you that if you make calls like this (call 3 bet with ATs for 28% of your stack) and call flop all in with middle pair and no diamond just because youre getting 2:1.....you will get killed.

Here are my most likely hands

AdAx....he has 7% equity
AsAc....he has 11% equity
KdKx....he has 13% equity
KxKx...he has 21% equity
QQ......he has 4% equity
JdJx.....he has 13% equity
JxJx....he has 21% equity
TT.......he has 4% equity
AdKx...he has 47% equity
AxKd...he has 47% equity
AxKx...he has 70% equity....I may or may not Cbet this one.

Throw in 5-10% of the time I have some hand like I actually have
He has 77% equity

Add all of those combos up and what do you come up with? I dont have to do the math to know hes in bad shape.

But "more power too him"? You aren't FOS here quite often? I don't know the numbers. But given the dynamic, once he calls pre and flops a pair (and really had any piece of flop) pretty much has to go with it. No?

Again, given you are prolly FOS. Which doesn't seem a stretch to me.

(And maybe even if didn't connect. Not this flop, a different flop.)

i guess maybe I should take back my comments here. Re-read. You said a bluff 5% pre. Really? 5%?

I'm not sure either of you messed up significantly post-flop. You probably should have bet less. Whether villain should call is still unclear to me.

I didn't say I would play it this way. You just said his flop call was terrible and I'm not sure about that. Also, my opponents are not you. And I'd fold ATs to any decent 3-bet against sane opponents.

Again, I can't calculate villain's EV exactly without knowing your precise 3-bet range, which hands you consider connects, and exactly which hands you C-bet here.

Are you saying your 3-bet range is exactly {TT+,AK} even though, according to you, this looks like a great spot to 3-bet super light since the SB really obviously meant to limp? Be honest now. That's a very convenient cutoff point as every hand in it crushes AT.

You went to a lot of effort here to defend your play but left out the most crucial information: how often you C-bet. I don't need to know for specific hands. How often do you C-bet this flop in general? You could also list every hand in your range and the probability you C-bet that hand and I can do a weighted average.

I counted all the combos for a tight 3b call range and a loose one.
I included all naked Ac and Kc hands. I loose range comes out to him calling 55% and tight range 62%.

The rest of his range includes hands that wouldn't call a bet unless it was really small. Thus if you want to bet this flop it should be $150.

This is a bad player who doesn't understand pot ratios like you do. If you 3b $125 then bet $75 to him it looks like you bet smaller and it smells weak. If you bet $150 it looks stronger despite the pot size.

$150 or $300 he is always playing AcKx or AxKc, but he is always folding AKo no club.... as an example.

So if you take the loose calling range of 55%.

If you bet $300 he calls 55% of his range. The whole range.
If you bet $75 he calls with 90% of his range (even hands like 9c9x call here lets say
If you bet $150 he calls with lets say 60% of his range. Maybe he spazzes out and calls with AxQc.

When you do the math on all these scenarios the $150 be is the largest return on investment.

On this flop if we assign him a tight range of TT+ and AK. The only hand he should generally be folding is AKo no club and possibly JJ even with a club. And this is vs a bad player so the thinking is different.

If this hand was vs a thinking player other factors come into play. He might see a shove as a move which removes hands that a bad player would think you have like AcAx and change the ranges for example.

This is a non-deliberation hand. He either is calling or he is folding unless with a reasonable bet. So the max isn't required to move him off the hand due to the odds he is getting.

For example lets say he had 88 here. He is folding to a $300 bet as easily as a $150 bet. While AcKx isn't folding to either.

Math genius can explain it in math form because I don't feel like doing it.

The hands I listed are the typical 3 bet hands. There's not a whole lot of people 3 betting at 2/5 much lighter than those hands. Especially when the original raise came from the SB which is even stronger than an UTG raise.

I would most likely shove this flop with any hand I listed. You can call it 100% if you want since I shoved the flop with a hell of a lot less than that hand (but he doesnt know that anyway). Its not like we've been in any large 3 bet pots with monotone flops before. Im only shoving because of the size of the pot, because the flop is monotone and because its fairly unlikely he has a diamond after calling a 3 bet and one big diamond being on the flop.

I'm not defending my play at all. It was a steal that went awry. I'm only saying that an overwhelming majority of players are not calling my flop shove here with his hand.

Im not only listing the hands that have AT crushed. I listed every legitimate 3 bet hand plus I talked about throwing in a 5-10% factor for spazz hands I might have. I not 3 betting in this spot with less than TT or AK/AQ. I think I left out the AQ hands. You can throw those in also.

If it wasnt for the accidental raise, which I dont know if anyone noticed or not, I wouldn't 3 bet TT or JJ here either most times.