Lol. Yeah as originally posted, was gonna need a lot of 'splaining to do.

Edit: Actually you still might need to unpack this. Here you must be playing vs a nit reg.

If you had a 78 what do you do. You said he always has 99. Do you bet trips here often? Does he know that if you do?

I was joking about him always having 99. You can bet he has an over pair though. If he has less than an over pair, hes pretty tricky/dangerous. That would be pretty rare.

Odd. I find hands harder to play @ Isles and easier @ HR and PBKC.

The Isles is tricky-play city. PBKC the stakes are higher but I can read them better. Maybe it's all the old people and their "advanced tricky" play style.

PBKC there are more younger people and the group think of younger players spreads down to the minority of the masses.

Come to think of it where I used to play was very much setup like PBKC. The play is more similar than Isles.

Mike

I don't post this with any sense of schadenfreude. But, I noticed you don't post $ losses for day. Most pg&c do. It's fine if you'd rather not. We are all rail birding a winning player and dunno if this gives us more insight or not.

Fwiw

Keep up the good work/posts.

"The Isles is tricky-play city. PBKC the stakes are higher but I can read them better. Maybe it's all the old people and their "advanced tricky" play style."

Winky just called you old, Mike. Lol

I agree with not barreling river in hand one in this situation.

Hand 4. Why don't you want sb to call? Because if he does prolly has a better flush draw?

Edit: nm. Misread hh.

My 4 day losing streak is a total of $1800

In no spring chicken, but Im younger than the avg population in my poker room. That's for sure.

Less than a buyin a day. Not bad.

Prolly better than my daily overall rate. Lol.

The old people there do weird things.

Like pot is $120 they got a set, there are 2 draws and 3 people behind them they check or bet $30. Really weird ****. Or call with AA/KK with people already in the pot of that are going to call behind. Or limp every premium hand in any position.

There is a difference between mixing it up, balancing, and playing tricky-trappy all the time.

Not exactly. I'll try to explain. We do make money when we hit but we also make money from the turn bet. We have to look at the entire situation from the perspective of where we started: on the turn.

There are 3 turn events that make up the "sample space" of the solution, which means adding these events together gives us the solution. I'll break it down.

10% of the time we get CRAI OTT. We lose about $3.38 from this.

EV(CRAI) = (.1)*(.3116*455 - .6884*255) = -3.3764

15% of the time villain folds OTT, which is worth $27

EV(VFT) = .15*(180) = 27

The third event is much more complicated since it is multi-street. 75% of the time villain calls, which has various resulting events. We can think of the river events as their own sample space. Either hero checks behind, in which case he wins with J/8 or he loses with other rivers, or hero shoves the river, in which case villain either folds or calls and loses. We assume we never shove and lose, as this only happens if villain has a boat on exactly 2 river cards. We also assume villain doesn't lead the river. So the river sample space is broken into 2 events, hero checking or hero shoving.

From the perspective of being on the river, hero checking is worth -$42.53

EV(HChecksRiver|VcalledTurn) = 30/46*(6/46*300 - 40/46*120) = -42.5331

From the same perspective, shoving on the river is worth

EV(HShoveRiver|VcalledTurn) = 131.30

So the two river events sum to $88.77

But these take place in the river sample space. We have to weight the events properly so the three turn events (villain crai, villain folds, or villain calls) add to 1. And villain calls 75% OTT so they do add to 1 (.1 + .15 + .75 = 1)

So from the perspective of the turn, these river actions are worth only

EV(VCall) = .75*88.77 = $66.58. This is because we only get to the river 75% of the time.

So to add what the whole play is worth from the turn, we add the three turn events:

Total EV = EV(CRAI) + EV(VFold) + EV(VCall)

Total EV = -3.38 + 27 + 66.58 = $90.20


No problem. I did partly but not completely accurately account for the Js and 8s. I assumed we'd win with a J or 8 when it got checked back, or 1 in 6 times we shove with these. Basically I estimated they were worth 1 out. They're probably worth a bit more if villain is stationy. If we assume he's super stationy, to the point our Js and 8s are always good, then the result is worth $103.96, (note if we're shoving these hands we can't win them when checking them back so I have to eliminate those terms).

This isn't entirely accurate though as he's not always going to call. I can refine the model more but adding terms mostly just complicates things. Do we care about the actual EV or which play is better? Unless the EV of separate plays is very close, we generally shouldn't worry about accounting for variables that only slightly change the result.

Well it's not good for us if he never calls when we hit, but we still make a lot of money from him folding. I'm going to assume we're still sometimes good when it gets checked back so I don't have to change the model, but if we drop his calling rate to 0 when we shove the total EV is $69.98. We still make money from villain folding so much, but now the line is as bad as checking the turn and bet/checking depending whether we hit.

However this is not realistic. Compare a river fold rate of 80% where we make $78.07.

Also, if villain is folding the river so much, he will fold more on the turn also. Let's say he folds on the river when we hit 80% and folds on the turn 30% (twice as often as he was). Now the line is worth $94.18. So the play is fine if he folds a lot in general, but if he's always calling the turn only to fold when a heart or 3-straight hits, it's not so good.

P(X) or EV(Y) is not shorthand exactly. More notation. They mean "Probability of Event X" and "Expected value of random variable Y" respectively. One could consider it shorthand except it's the standard way to write out functions. Not doing it like this is super clunky. Which I think you get, but just pointing this out.

I think these EVs are hard to calculate mainly because it's difficult to account for 30+ variables accurately and then input them correctly into a computational engine. Most people make numerous mistakes even if they understand the fundamentals. When I taught calculus I saw this a LOT--students who I knew understood the concepts and even set up the integrals correctly with the correct steps, but how many do you think ended up with the correct result after a page-long problem? Maybe 1 in 100. Seriously. I didn't even count off for the results being wrong if the solution was correct because otherwise 198/200 of my students would have failed.

I make mistakes like this occasionally but far less (multiple orders of magnitude) than most people for some reason. I'm not necessarily smarter--I just work carefully and methodically and assume I messed up until I've checked two or three times that I haven't. As a kid I'd usually be one of the first to finish my exams, but always the last to turn them in because I'd just check everything over for as much time as I had.

Good stuff Shai. Thanks for your time and the work.

I'm going to start calling Mike "Job". You have to have the patience of Job to play there without tilting. This tilts me just reading. Lol

Here is the doozies of doozies. This will make your head explode.

I raise KhTs in the CO, fish calls in the SB, BB calls.

$60 FLOP QdJd3h - SB donks $40, BB folds..... I call.
$140 TURN Qs - SB checks, I check
$140 RIVER Ad - SB checks, I bet $55 to get some value. I think this guy maybe has AJ, Qx hand... ya know 2 draws came in. I get XRed to $150.

I sit there like WTF? I was going to fold but I was getting 3:1 to call. I almost folded but with 3:1 I thought there was a 25% chance he was spazzing for certain reasons.

I called he had KQo. This is how weird they are.

I have seen a guy check quads 3x and never get paid.

It's a ****ing weird casino. It costs me a lot as I value own myself a lot.

Here is another weird one. I flop the nut straight and check... Someone bets smallish, call, I raise because there is a FD out there. They both call. Turn is a blank, I POT the damn thing I get 2 calls. River comes the flush the pot is $400.....

There is like no way someone doesn't have a flush... I check, small better bets $50, other guy calls. There is like no way I am good here but I am getting 10:1 to call... I call... I'm good. WEIRD!!!

I dont think the KQ hand is that weird at all actually. He bet the flop with TPGK and you called. I would bet the turn again most times but agaisnt an aggro player like yourself, I would check turn sometimes hoping to check raise your ass. You check behind. The river comes and its unlikely you have much. Maybe you have a J and you probably fold if he bets. Maybe you missed a FD and you fold if he bets. You dont have a Q. Check raising the river with KQ is not a bad play at all here.

Flush came in tho

That hand is a perfect example of one of the bigger challenges in live poker.

People click huge buttons with their value hands.

Oops. Yeah, much weirder than I thought.

LOL exactly. I am either bluffing or I have him beat. If he is a donkey and thinks I think like a donkey then I am checking my boats behind on the turn... as a donkey.

So he has only a bluff catcher and should XC.

Just as a quick summary -- it turns out not all players play at your level of knowledge of the game or sophistication. In fact most people don't in a random cash game in some random casino. Its not that weird, it sounds like just about every poker room I've played in, except maybe the Bellagio.

Embrace the free value someone else bet for you.

I keep telling myself I need to play more in the evening. For those of you who work during the day and play in the evenings, you have no idea how much tougher daytime play is. Its not that daytime players are tough, its that evening players are mostly poker idiots. Remember that if you are considering "going pro". Unless you want to play an evening schedule, your win rate is going to drop considerably. My evening win rate is 54% higher than my daytime win rate.

I got an evening session in today. Here are a few hands.

1) Button straddle. I have KK UTG and limp. MP Asian female raises to $40 and gets 3 calls. I shove my $430 in. She calls without a second thought. The button who is a pretty good player who Ive played a fair amount with during the day considers calling but finally folds.

She has AQs and I win. The button said he had QJs. He said he was stuck a fair amount and almost called trying to win a big pot. Final board was Q4777.

2) Tough young Asian kid opens to $20 in MP and gets 2 calls. Not sure if hes just passing thru town or what but Ive only seen him the past week or so. Hes been playing 5/10 also. I 3 bet to $85 with AQ OTB. Asian kid calls and we go HU.
Flop ($210) K87 rainbow. He check/calls $85.
Turn ($380) Q. Check/check
River ($380) A. He checks. I bet $125. He says "I know you have AK. Why didnt you bet the turn?" Then he folds KQ face up.

The first guy who called his original $20 raise says "I folded AK". The 2nd guy who called the original raise says he also folded a K. This puts the Asian on tilt and he leaves the table a few mins later.

3) Tough German guy limps. I raise to $25 in MP with Jd9d. He calls HU.
Flop ($55) 8c6c5d. Check/check
Turn ($55) 2d. He bets $60. I think and call. I think my overcards may well be good.
River ($175) 9h. He checks. I check back. I beat his As4s.

4) Button straddles. 1 limp. I raise to $60 with AhAd. Asian female from Hand #1 calls HU.
Flop ($135) Ts6s4c. I bet $80. She calls.
Turn ($295) 8h. I bet $100. She calls.
River ($495) 3d. I bet $125. She calls and mucks.

5) Button straddle. I have KK in the SB and limp. MP raises to $40. LP calls and the button calls. I 3 bet to $200. MP has a total stack of $840 and 4 bets to $440. It folds back to me. I cover him.

Yesterday I raised a limper to $25 with KK. This same guy 3 bet me to $75. I shoved $425ish and he folded JJ face up. I cant see him making this small a reraise with anything but AA so I folded. Hard to believe I folded KK preflop twice in the past few days but I did.

5) Limped pot. I have KhTc in the BB.
Flop ($25) Td4h3h. SB bets $25. I call and we go HU.
Turn (75) 7c. He bets $55. I'm not crazy about it but I call.
River ($185) Ks. He checks. I almost instantly bet $125 trying to make it look like I missed my FD. He tanks and finally calls and mucks.

6) I watched a guy for a while and Im pretty sure he was raising $25 with AK and $20 with big pairs based on a couple showdowns. He had checked/folded the flop twice after raising $25 and the flop didnt have an Ace or King.

He opened to $25. 1 call, and then I call JJ.
Flop ($80) 943. He bet $70. 1 fold...I folded also

7) EP opens to $15...3 calls. I call QdJd OTB. Both blinds call.
Flop ($75) QcTcTh. Checked to me. I bet $40. BB calls
Turn ($155) 6s. He checks. I wasnt sure if he had a T or a FD so I checked behind.
River ($155) 6c. He bets $25. Blah. Im pretty sure Im beat but I called. He had 62. Both of them were red. WTF can I say besides its Friday evening.

There were a few ridiculous hands that I wasnt involved in.

1) Didnt see preflop but the flop is 863. 1st Asian chick bets $50. MP raises to $150. Second Asian chick calls. First Asian chick shoves $400+. They both call

1st Asian chick has AQ
Both the other 2 players have T8

Turn A and she triples up

2) 2nd Asian chick (who is the girl with AQs who called my all in when I had KK) opens to $15 and gets 3 calls. LP 3 bets to $85. The Asian girl calls HU.
Flop ($300) 932. Asian chick checks. LP shoves fr $275. She calls with A4s and is ahead of LPs KT.

Like I said, I have to play more evenings. I broke my 4 day losing streak with a $1115 win in 5 hrs.

What made you hesitant on the turn in your second #5? You still have TPGK and only behind top top, Top2, sets and 56. Based on previous these folks would be betting with JT, T9, or maybe even A4/A3, and probably would have raised pre with anything that made a set. I dunno, feels like a solid spot for a call and see the river?

He was betting from the SB on a T437 board. A lot of these guys will play just about any hand from the SB so there are a lot of 2 pair combos he could have. I find most people will make smaller bets with TP weak kicker and not increase from $25 to $55. They may bet $15 on the flop and $25 on the turn with something like JT or worse. One thing I know for sure is calling people down when you're basically guessing if you're ahead or not is not a great idea most of the time.

The games here are opposite. Day games full of rich clueless farmers most of the year.

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