Well I could post all the mundane HHs.

1) 1 limper. MP raises to $25. One call. I call from the SB with AQs.
Flop ($85) Kc8h3d. I check/fold

What fun was that?

Your 2016 allin numbers. How many allin hands are we talking and what's your guess of total numbers of hands played in 2016? Just curious.

I said that in one of my posts. That obv you aren't posting mundane hands.

Maybe Mike gets paid off because he looks like an idiot.

I actually have no idea what he looks like but I'm curious what effect appearances have on how often we get paid off. I'm very nerdy looking and don't talk much while playing. Compare to say a super hot woman who acts drunk and flirts with everyone, but is actually similarly skilled. Or a middle-aged guy with a Donald Trump hat. JK on that last one. Kind of.

Some people I look at and just instantly think "this guy is an idiot." Maybe he's 18, wearing a loose hoodie, a baseball cap, sunglasses, a gold chain, and has a grill. Yes I actually saw a guy with all this at the table. I immediately assumed he was an idiot. After playing a couple hours I was 100% sure he was in fact an idiot.

My point is with no history I'm more likely to get paid by this guy than a sharply dressed middle-aged man with glasses who takes 5 seconds for every decision. The second guy seems like a thinking player, and probably won't pay me off with his crummy top pair. I assume the reverse also applies. Other players at the table may look at me and think "Hmm, this guy looks way too nerdy. He's not a degenerate gambler. I'm out."

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Also, session results don't mean much unless all players play the same hours. Player A puts in 8 hour sessions and then leaves, regardless of how he's doing. Player B puts in 3-12 hour sessions. He leaves as soon as 3-5 hours if he's way up, leaves around 8 hours if he's up, and leaves after 12 hours regardless. Say he averages 8 hour sessions. Player B will have a higher session winrate than Player A, but they could be making exactly the same hourly.

I just know Mike from the casino we play at. He is one of the nicest persons I have met. We also compliment each of our skill sets so we talk shop but not at the table. We come from different backgrounds which gives us different approaches to the game.

Mike really isn't anymore lucky than anyone else I just like to pick on him. He has had his bad streaks. I am the one not running well recently. The last all in I won for a full stack was in April if my memory serves correctly.

I would put my total hands in 2016 at around 60,000. The total number of all ins is pretty hard to take a guess at. Some days I have none and others I may have 3-6 depending on lots of factors including how many short stacks are at the table. If I was to throw out a number it would be around 750? But I could be way off.

I saw you mention that you rarely raise UTG and when you do it's a lot of hands like J9s etc, have you noticed any regulars that might have caught onto this and how do you adjust to them (presumably) exploiting your capped range?

Edit: Out of curiosity too, are you known as a pro in your room or is your occupation unknown?

You would have to ask other people but I would say I probably look like someone who bluffs a lot, but I really dont. I throw out some hopefully well timed bluffs occasionally and I make some strangely large value bets sometimes. I hope its hard for people to tell the difference.

The other day I limped TT UTG. There were 3 limpers and then a LAG made it $10 OTB. Both blinds called. I looked at the LAG who I have a lot of respect for and who mixes up his game very well and said "Really?". He laughed and then I made it $100. The SB said "God damn it! I knew he was going to do that. Im so sick of this".

The SB and I are friendly in the poker room, but he gets fed up with my style of play quite a bit. Im just guessing but I think its things like this that help me get paid off. People get fed up with some of my unorthodox plays that upset the balance of the poker world that they are used to.

Or.....it could be that I look like an idiot.

PS...this post was in response to how I get paid off...not in response to WJ294s question. I just happened to mention an UTG hand as he was asking that question.

I havent noticed anything like that. I do limp some big hands UTG, but not always. I try not to do anything always.

Raising J9s in position is light years better than raising it UTG, but you dont always get it in position. The reason to raise it UTG is for deception. People are automatically going to put you on AK/AQ/ big pair and they will play accordingly. If they are decent they will be very wary of how the flop hits your perceived range for raising UTG.

They should be folding most Js preflop that have you dominated which makes TP pretty good even though your kicker sucks. You can play the flop as if you really have an UTG raising hand and win lots of pots unimproved and you will also win some big pots when the flop pounds you but it looks to them like you missed.

Having a hard time reconciling your last 2 posts with "toughest room". When you posted in the other forum about toughest room, I thought you were being facetious. But then you said it again in this thread. I'm not doubting you. Just seems, well like they play with blinders on.

This is a post from Avaritia in a thread in the strat forum. We dont know each other but he used to play where I play. Ive talked to reg after reg who say the same thing. Its the toughest room in S.Florida.

Sure, there are still some donks who give away money but nowhere near like other places. Again, there's no point in posting a HH where I raise a nit and he folds which happens quite a bit. You cant hit TPTK and expect to get paid on 3 streets hardly ever.

No problem. For reference, we have J9 on T48A board. Villain has checked and action is on us. Stacks are $350

Line 1: Bet 120 on the turn (we get x/r AI 10% on the turn and always call, and he calls 75% OTT), ship all rivers (he calls 50%).

I did this calculation in post #164 and the result was Total EV = $156.59

Villain may shove the river some % of the time, but we're assuming he threw away his 2p/sets on turn x/r. It makes a difference of pennies whether he x/r these hands or leads them. I considered including this work but it will just not affect the result significantly at all as we only lose to a river shove when we call with a flush AND it's the A or 8 (this happens well less than 1% of the time we call). Anyway, I'm leaving some of the work here in case I reexamine it later.

Basically we would add this to the previous equation:

(P(VShoveRiver|calledturn)*(P(HCall|VShoveRiver)*( P(HWin|VShoveRiver)*WinAmt|VShoveRiver - P(HLose|VShoveRiver)*LoseAmt|VShoveRiver) - P(HFold|VShoveRiver)*LoseFoldAmt|VShoveRiver)


Line 2: Bet $120 turn (we get x/r AI 10% on the turn and always call, villain calls OTT 75%), ship all rivers that improved to a straight or flush (villain calls 50%), check behind everything else. We're assuming villain x/r AI with his 2p + sets OTT, so villain should basically never lead shove the river except as a bluff, which for simplicity we assume he never does (it would have close to zero effect on the result unless he bluffs a lot). Also, we're always good when we shove, since villain can't x/c a boat as he got rid of his possible boat hands on the turn.

This line is somewhat complicated so I'm glossing over how I get there, but much of it is similar to post #164

P(CRAI)=.1
P(HWin|CRAI) = .3116
WinAmt|CRAI = 455
P(HLose|CRAI) = .6884
LoseAmt|CRAI = 275

P(VFoldTurn) = .15
WinAmt|VFoldTurn = 180

P(VCallTurn) = .75
P(HChecksRiver) = 30/46
P(HWin|HChecksRiver) = 6/46 (this is reasonable against a station, as he in fact here had just a pair of 8s, so our J's and 9's are often good when he checks)
WinAmt|HChecksRiver = 180 + 120 = 300
P(HLose|HChecksRiver) = 40/46
LoseAmt|HChecksRiver = 120
P(HShoveRiver) = 16/46
P(Vfold|HShoveRiver) = .5
WinAmtVRiverFold|HShoveRiver = 180+120 = 300
P(VCall|HShoveRiver) = .5
P(HWin|HShoveRiver) = 1 (we assume he never checks his boats)
WinAmt|HShoveRiver = 180 + 120 + 155 = 455

Total EV = P(CRAI)*(P(win|CRAI)*WinAmt|CRAI - P(lose|CRAI)*LoseAmt|CRAI) +

P(VFoldTurn)*WinAmt|VFoldTurn +

P(VCallTurn)*(P(HChecksRiver)*(P(HWin|HChecksRiver )*WinAmt|HChecksRiver - P(HLose|HChecksRiver)*LoseAmt|HChecksRiver) +

P(HShoveRiver)*(P(Vfold|HShoveRiver)*WinAmtVRiverF old|HShoveRiver + P(Vcall|HShoveRiver)*P(Hwin|HShoveRiver)*WinAmt|HS hoveRiver))

Total EV = (.1)*(.3116*455 - .6884*255) +

.15*(180) +

.75*(30/46*(6/46*300 - 40/46*120) +

16/46*(.5*300 + .5*1*455))

Total(EV) = $90.20

Assuming I've made no mistakes (pretty sure there aren't any),

checking turn < bet 120 OTT, shove river if we hit < shove turn < bet 120 and shove river

Bet 120 OTT, shove river only if we hit is fairly low variance, though.

Now there's probably some optimal line, shoving X% of rivers. This is impossible to account accurately unless we make a model for every river card though, as villain is unlikely to fold the same amount on, for example, an Ace river as a 2. Unless his river calling range is super inelastic (vaguely possible for a calling station), we'd need to model individual rivers differently.

I could try to solve for X given our assumptions though. I don't think it would be too difficult though it would take a bit of work.

Your first sentence is correct and we improve to a straight or flush more like 35% so we'd miss a bit over 65% but you are close. You have the right idea but you forgot to account for the 180 in the pot on the turn. You have to account for the action of multiple streets correctly which can be tricky. There's a reason I multiply the river action by .75, because .1 of the time there's a check-raise and .15 of the time villain folds. We need the probabilities for the actions on each street to sum to 1. And you left out our fold equity.

The check-raise potential on the other hand is not that important. It costs us like $3. I thought of including a river leading possibility as well, but this would be worth even less, possibly pennies. As we add variables the model gets exponentially more complicated. Making it 10% more accurate might take 2-3 times as long to do the calculations.

I need to figure out how to make Mathematica applets for changing multiple variables simultaneously and viewing the output. I knew how in grad school but no longer. Short of that I could make some excel sheets maybe. Hmmm...

Ava said worst not toughest. Those are different things. Not saying either of you is wrong just saying his statement doesn't support yours necessarily


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Shai,

Thanks much for your reply.

Just so I'm sure I understand. We can bet turn and cb brick rivers and overall will make $90.20. Given the other assumptions. When we hit, it makes up for the times we brick. Basically. Right?

Oh and btw this doesn't even account for the times our j high is good. Which we do see once in a while. Obv immaterial amount of times, but does happen.

Thanks again.

Heh yea, "worst" just meant least amount of action / least amount of bad play / 10 handed games. So worst for wr.

If we were going to say "toughest" in terms of good players that put me in bad spots, it would either be the HR or pbkc. But its pretty hard to find good players that put you in tough spots <5/10. Obv the 5/10 at the isle had some pretty solid players, but again i can only remember 2 that often had me in tough spots.

Isle still is the nicest room in fl though imho.

Great thread!


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Shai,

What is the EV of this same scenario, but just change to: when we hit and ship, he calls zero % of the time (rather than 50%).

(I assume this won't take but a second for you to plug in that scenario. If you don't have your calculation saved and have to redo, then you don't have to do it all again. NM).

Just curious. Trying to get a better "visual" of what's going on in this type scenario.

I think why it is so hard to understand is the short hand format he is using. I get it. I do work like this all the time for scenarios.

It's not that I don't understand it. (Didn't really go thru each step, cuz that's something I'll never be able to do.) Mostly interested in bottom line using extremes. To get a visual (feel, if you will) here.

Well if you understand then I wasn't meaning you. I was meaning others.

Thats what I meant when I said it was the toughest also. I mean, if I play 5000 hrs at 2 different places with avg luck and my win rate is significantly lower at one of them, its a tougher room. It doesnt matter if I won less because the players are nits and the pots are small or if its because the players put me in bad spots and I lose lots of big pots. Less win rate = tougher room.

I would agree that I get into more tough spots at PBKC and HR, but I also win more there because there is more action and more donks at any time of day.

I dont know if I get paid off more than other people or not, but I do know that I dont bluff very often because I dont need to. If people keep calling my bets and raises when I have them beat it makes little sense to bluff very much. Not saying I never do it though. Hand #1 is an example

1) MP unknown player (which means 95% chance hes a rec player since I dont know him) opens to $15. I call OTB with KQ. BB also calls.
Flop ($45) AQ4. BB checks. MP bets $25. I call.
Turn ($95) 6. He bets $30. Pretty sure he has a weakish Ace here based on his sizing. I raise to $100. He tanks for quite a while and finally calls.
River ($295) 3. He checks. He only had about $150 left and I didnt feel like donking off another $150 to a guy who cant fold so I checked behind. He had AT.

Maybe I should follow up and shove the river but I make that play with things like A4s or 44 and get paid off most of the time so I gave up. I risked $100 to win the $125 pot. It should work more than 50% of the time. It didnt, I surrender. Instead of making it worse, I just wait for a similar spot and stack the guy. It never happened this time but I have a very good memory. Ill be waiting, Sir.

2) LP opens to $15. I call SB 44. BB also calls.
Flop ($45) 9d4d3c. I lead $25. BB folds and LP calls
Turn ($95) 6s. I bet $65. He calls.
River ($225) 5h. He has $195 left. I shove. He tanks and calls with 99.

3) 2 limpers. LP raises to $15. I call in SB with 9d8d. BB calls and 1 limper calls.
Flop ($60) 9h8c8d. I lead $40. Folds to LP who min raises to $80. I fold. Blah!

4) EP limps. I limp 8c7c in MP. Both blinds see the flop.
Flop ($20) 9c6c8s. SB checks. BB bets $25. If you look up OMC in the dictionary this guys picture will be there. Super super nice guy though. Hes one of my favorite guys in the room even though he wears a ****ing Patriot's hat all the time. Hes got $115 behind. EP folds. The SB is the guy who had AT in Hand #1. I decide to call. Mainly because the BB isnt deep enough for blow off of a 2pair type hand or the nut flush draw, but also because the pot is pretty small and the HH is worth $300.

So I call. SB calls also.

Turn ($95) 2s. SB checks. BB shoves his $115. I need 35% equity to call, provided the SB doesnt call also. I figure Im around 40-45% against his range of 2 pairs, overpairs, 9x type hands. SB folds.
River ($325) 5d. I didnt make him show. MHIG.

Nothing too exciting today. I got AA twice. Stole the blinds once and won $25 once. I got 3 bet about 5 times when I had pretty weak hands so they were easy folds. I couldnt recover from the set over set and had my 4th consecutive losing day.

Here's hoping I dont set a new record at 5 tomorrow.

4 losing days in a row sucks balls, but when combined with the hot run I had when I came back to 2/5 from my short stint at 1/2....Im at $56.50/hr over 45 hours so no harm done. Its just weird that it all or nothing right now. Nothing in between.

Wait, what? Why fold hand 3?

Because Im a nit and he has to have 99 here.

LOL...Sorry, the flop was 977