Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Here's an interesting stat that boggles my mind.
After 3200 hrs of 2/5 tracking All in EV...Ive run so far under All in EV that my win rate should be 13.6% higher. If I ran neutral in my all in pots, I wouldve won 13.6% more money. That seems like an astronomical amount to me over a pretty large sample.
In all other stakes...1/2, 1/3 and 5/10...Ive run 1.5% OVER All in EV.
Im no stat expert but I would think +/- 3-5% would be fairly normal over a large sample. 13.6% has to be way outside anything that would be considered normal. In total, over all stakes I'm about 10.5% under All in EV.
Forget about ever getting back to even, Id give my left nut just to run even from here.
Mike,
An old post of yours from 21 May
Can you tell me how often you GII (I’ll assume once every two hours) and what is the typical effective stack (I’ll assume $250)
With above assumptions, I think we can approximate your situation by thinking of it as 1,600 coin flips for £250 each HU.
(Coin flips are an example of Bernoulli trials with a 50% chance of success)
The number of successful coin flips follows a Binomial distribution B(n,p) where n is the number of trials and p is the probability of winning each trial, so it’s a B(1600,0.5) distribution
The variance (of the distribution of the number of successful coin flips) = np(1-p) = 400
Standard deviation = square root of variance = 20.
I think you make 10bb per hour, that’s $160,000 total win after 3,200 hours
Your loss versus EV was 13.6% of winnings, so $21,760
With a pot size of $500 in each coin flip, you have lost 43.52 more flips than you’ve won. Lets call it 44. So you’ve lost 822 flips and won 778 flips - you’ve lost 22 more flips than you expected to. This is 1.1x the standard deviation.
For a large number of trials, the distribution will behave like a Normal distribution. We can look up 1.1 in a z-score table. This tells us you are at the 13th percentile point (‘of unluckiness’.)
Still assuming the same $250 effective stacks, if you have been GII once every hour then you’ve had 3,200 trials and you are at the 21st %ile point (less unlucky). If GII once every 4 hours, 6th %ile point.
You mentioned you considered 3-5% of your total win as more normal. Using 4%, you are at the 37th %ile point.
I could have gone wrong somewhere along the line here, I’d be happy to hear if anyone finds any errors or thinks the method is flawed