That will hurt the ole all in ev


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Goat post

Meh...I only got about $465 in lost equity back. I just need about 35-40 more of these to be back to even.

life is so unfair you are so unlucky

Lol'ed.

So Mike, you must be computing the all-in EV every single time you go all-in, regardless of whether in a downswing / upswing (because most of the time you never know when you're in one, especially at the beginning)?

And on top of that you're also tracking the win/loss of every single hand you play? Which seems like a lotta hands if you have a highish VPIP (I'm assuming a highish VPIP if playing 5 high from MP)?

And then I guess you must enter these onto some spreadsheet later and total up all the numbers and analyze on a regular / semi-regular basis so see what's what?

Sounds *exhausting*, no?

GwindedjustthinkingaboutitG

Yes, if I want to know my total All in EV, I have to count every hand that goes all in before the river. Being in an upswing or downswing has nothing to do with it.

I keep track of the total profit/loss of certain categories of hands. Not every hand I play. At different times Im working on different things. For a few months I may decide to start 3 betting lite more often so I keep track of the results of every hand where I do that to see if its profitable to continue or not.

Yes I put a quick note on my phone and then enter the info into a spreadsheet when I get home. Here's a sample:

I can tell you that so far this month in 51 hours Ive 3 bet lite 9 times. Ive been called 6 of those times which is very high. My overall average is getting called is only 42.5%

In the 3 times I took it down without a call this month, I won $81.

In the 6 times I got called I won $545. That's also very high. My average profit per hand when called after 3 betting lite is $5.94. Obviously a lot of the time when I get called I have a severe range disadvantage.

Avg profit per hand when nobody calls is $36.58. If I can just break even when I get called (which is my goal), then obviously 3 betting lite adds to my overall win rate.

That may seem like a lot of work, but jotting down results of 9 hands in over 50 hours is nothing. Each hand takes like 10 seconds.

Here's a lite 3 bet from today. EP opens to $15 and gets 3 calls. I 3 bet to $80 in the cutoff with QcJc. EP calls HU.

Flop ($190) AcTdTs. X/X
Turn ($190) Ah. He chuckles, and checks. I bet $50 and he folds.

QcJc is a good hand to over call preflop with and I couldve done that, but 3 betting in a lot of these spots makes you much tougher to play against, it adds to your win rate and it gets you much more action on your premiums when people see you 3 betting more often than most people. The point of keeping track is that I dont want to be making -EV plays just to get more action and I wouldnt know for sure if Im picking the right spots to 3 bet lite or not if I didnt keep track of my results.

Here are the highlights of todays session

1) MP raises $20. Whale calls OTB. I call SB 22

Flop ($60) 952. Checked around
Turn ($60) J. I check. MP checks. Button whale bets $50. I check raise to $150. He shoves. I call off a total of $515. He has J5. We run it twice and I win both.

Ive called raises with small to mid pps like this 32 times so far this month. This is the 2nd set Ive hit.

2) Button straddle. I raise to $35 MP JJ. Button makes it $125 with $250 total stack. I shove. He calls and we run it twice.

First board is KKTT4
Second board is A95J....at that point he tables AA.....river J.

We chop.

3) UTG whale opens $20. I call with 55. I probably should fold because there too high a chance someone will reraise, although I really want to play pots with the whale. The button calls. BB 3 bets to $80. Whale calls. I fold and button calls.

Flop ($260) A95. BB bets $175. UTG whale folds. Button shoves about $400. BB calls. They run it twice.....BB has AKs. Button has 99. I wouldve been set over setted.

Second board the case 5 falls and we wouldve chopped up the BBs stack.

4) Whale limps. I raise to $25 Td8d. Another whale calls in the SB. BB calls also. Limper folds.

Flop ($80) 8s3s2d. SB leads $50. BB calls. I make it $150. SB tank folds. BB calls
Turn ($430) Kc. He checks. I shove about $350 effective. He folds

5) EP limps. Whale limps in MP. I raise to $30 AJ in MP. BB and whale call

Flop ($95) As8c3d. Check around
Turn ($95) 4c. Checked to me. I bet $45. Whale calls.
River ($185) 8s. He leads $105. I call. He says "2 pair". I say 'which two?". He says "I guess you win" and I table. He mucks. He obviously had a 3 or a 4.

6) LP open limps. SB limps. I raise $35 BB with 97s. They both fold. Easy money.

7) I open 74s $20 HJ. BB calls
Flop ($40) 722. He checks. I bet $25. He folds.

Every day someone calls me a nit which is actually pretty hilarious because I'm constantly raising these type hands. I just rarely get to showdown.

8) 4 limps. I raise to $40 SB with KJ. They all fold cuz they think Im a nit

I mustve raised a bunch of limpers to $40 like 5 times from the blinds and they all folded each time. I never had a hand better than AT or KJ.

The funny thing is that I'm actually a tighter player than you preflop, yet everyone thinks I'm a maniac LAG with no discipline. This is how I'd play these hands:

1) Yeah I'd play this hand the same way.
2) I'd probably sigh jam here, although I wouldn't be loving life. I'd much rather be the one 3betting JJ than facing a 3bet with JJ. I almost think we could find an exploitable fold in this spot.
3) I'd definitely fold here, regardless of your position. 88 is the minimum hand I'd want to call with here. Pure set mines are only marginally profitable if there's very little chance of facing a squeeze. They quickly become unprofitable when people start squeezing more.
4) You didn't say your position, but I'm only raising this hand in the CO or BTN. I've started folding it in the HJ. As played, I'd play pretty similar to you postflop. I like the flop raise and turn jam.
5) I play exactly the same.
6) Definitely checking this preflop and it's not even close. I don't see why we'd want to raise this hand from OOP.
7) Definitely folding this preflop and it's not even close. I'd only open this hand on the BTN. That's it.
8) I'm just completing this. I'd want AJ minimum to iso 4 limpers from the blinds.

You nit.

6,

Mike doesn’t want your comments. He knows he’s perfect. He wants your adulation and esteem

Lol that's basically the impression that I get.

Yeah, I only post here cuz Im trying to build up a fan club full of smart asses. That's my life long goal.

6betme,

Your comments are pretty much spot on. If you had the patience and discipline to play like you know you should you would be fine. The problem is you lack both of those so you go nuts in the heat of the moment. And apparently you cant stop yourself because you do it over and over again.

As far as raising trash from the blinds like I did a couple times (I actually did it several more times and just didnt post those), its very profitable at certain tables when people are open limping in LP. They fold almost every single time. If they are going to fold 90% of the time I can raise ATC.

If your games are much looser, then obviously that wont work. Mine are pretty nitty at times so I take advantage of it.

I guess it also depends on whether people have "protected limping ranges" vs "unprotected limping ranges".

An example is: on a super passive 1/2 table, an OMC might limp-call AKo. In this case, he has a protected limping range.

But a semi-competent 2/5 reg might limp exclusively suited connectors and low pocket pairs, so his limping range is "unprotected", since there are no nutted hands in his range that he can defend with.

This is true. There are some 2/5 players (not the competent ones) who limp/call things like AK, but those people almost always fold the flop when they miss so I will still win the majority of pots with things like KJ vs AK. We will both miss most of the time.

What its actually depends on is that my estimated guess is that Mike is miles better than you in his baseline game: meaning that he is alot better in judging what each table needs of adjustments and exploitative plays. From my own knowledge and experience interracting with him on the forum for couple of years now he have a better fundamental baseline when it comes to making decisions. Instead of attacking him like you have done in your own thread, you actually could learn alot from him on many levels-but of course your ego prevent you from coming anything close to that.

He isnt raising garbage from the blinds because he is bored, chasing losses or just itching too much to play a hand. No, he have been building up accurate reads that players limps too weak of a range from late position, then overfolding alot when facing raises. Many players misjudge these factors, and ends up finding themself in a myriad of difficult spots postflop out of position in raised pots with weak holdings instead.

Thats the essence of what ive talked about numerous times in different threads: aiming to be like water, fitting effortlessly in everywhere.

Vast majority of players (including you) make most plays because of the wrong reasons. You raise a hand because thats your "standard" range. You check-jam a draw because you feel like "you have to", or you feel like gambling to get even for the session. You 3 bet a hand because that is how you usually play that hand. You jam KQ off pre because you have a chart somewhere that says its a proper jam with 30 blinds or whatever you tell yourself. And so forth and so on.

First when a player is able to completely swallow their own ego, put away their own predecided plan of how they personally _want_ to play,stop playing hands based on tilt or how they their emotions tell them to play a certain hand- then they can begin slowly going down the road to become a crusher.

One more semi interesting hand from yesterday's session. This one was tough but I think I played it fine.

EP ($600) limps. He's got such a strange style that I wouldnt able to explain it here.
UTG+2 ($1000) raises to $25. Ive only played with him a few times. My buddy says hes a maniac. He does raise preflop a lot and isnt paying attention to the game at all. Hes on his phone.
Hero ($1200) 3 bets to $80 KhQh in MP.

EP cold calls $80. UTG+2 calls also

Flop ($240) Qc9d6d. Check to me. I bet $125. EP folds. UTG+2 cr to $275. I tank fold.

EP says he folded JJ and insists that I folded AA and UTG+2 had QQ.

My friend says I shouldnt have bet that flop because UTG+2 is a maniac and will check raise me with 87s there. Im not really buying that. He raises 87s in EP, called a 3 bet and then check raised me OOP in a 3 bet pot? I didnt see anything remotely that nuts or that tricky out of the guy.

Thoughts?

Tell your friend to watch the whole video next time so he understands what he is talking about

I mean, your hand is pretty much capped to staying as a 1 pair hand on most runouts in the sense that we doesent have neither flushdraw or a straightdraw. So i am on board with being comfortable bet/folding this hand if your reads on the guys flop raising range is accurate enough so that we are comfortable bet/folding top pair good kicker with this SPR.

Your friend does have a decent point though even though he expressed it kind of unaccurate, that on this dynamic type of board you flop C-bet could get raised a fair amount of the time, and we possibly (over)folding the best hand if you misjudge the raisingrange of your villain.

I'm always check backing that flop. We're never getting 3 streets of value there, so we might as well pot control. We don't want our equity denied when we have to x/f and villain shows up with a draw.

If we are going to bet flop, then I'll bet/call. I'll then proceed to gii on safe turn cards and fold dangerous turns where an obvious draw got there.

I've already passed that stage though.

There was a time when I used to be an ego reg. I used to overbluff and overcall. And I learnt that I could play a more tight-passive style and still profit, sometimes more.

No, not at all.80 percent of your posts on 2+2 confirms that you have not passed this stage. Not even remotely close, and you not being aware of this is basically the main source of your problem: huge lack of self awareness and self reflection.

You do realise that the hands which I post are the hands which I play?

I'm not going to post about how I folded KJo UTG or I folded 44 in the CO against a UTG+2 raise. I'm constantly making nitty folds but I never post them because there's nothing to discuss.

Do you think it's a coincidence that 80% of the hands I post are between the HJ and the BB, as opposed to UTG through to the LJ?

I started a new tracking project today. Lots of times when Im playing I raise and take down pots uncontested preflop. These daytime games I play in are nitfests a lot of the time. Sometimes I steal the blinds. Other times I raise limpers and everyone folds. I know, everyone does that, but the other day someone said "There goes Mike (they used my real name which isnt Mike) again raising just to steal the dead money. Some of them know what Im doing half the time but they still dont call. That's how you beat the nittiest games in the world.

Today I asked the dealer "Do you think there will be a $100 pot before you leave?". He said "No". I said "I think there will be. Im about to start raising every hand". I raised the next 5 hands in a row and we had some decent pots.

Here are the 5 hands.

1) Folded to me OTB. I raise to $20 with 55. Blinds fold.

2) Folded to me in the cutoff. I raise $20 with T7o and everyone folds.

3) Folded to me in the HJ and I open to $20 with Jc9c. Both blinds call.
Flop ($60) Tc6d2h. Check around
Turn ($60) 8s. BB bets $25. I call HU
River ($110) Qc. He bets $75. I raise to $200. He folds.

4) EP limps. I raise to $25 AdKh. Button and SB call
Flop ($75) Ks8s3c. SB checks. I bet $55. SB fish calls HU with $115 behind
Turn ($185) 8h. He checks. I go all in. He calls and rivers a flush.

5) I raise a limper to $25 with AT and everyone folds. Then I slowed down for a bit as I was in EP and my cards sucked for a bit.

So today I started keeping track of how many pots I take down uncontested preflop and how much money I win in those pots. Some are actual value hands but everyone folded and some Im raising junk.

I played 4 hrs 10 mins today and I took down 12 pots preflop for a total profit of $190. I raised plenty of other times and got called and played the hand out. I'm only talking about times where nobody called.

I'm interested to see how this ends up after 100 hours. The more I raise and take down pots uncontested, obviously the more easy money I win preflop. If I start overdoing it, Ill start losing too much money by raising too much trash and having a severe card disadvantage when called. I dont think this will lead to anything really. I'm just curious.

4 hrs 10 mins
Pots stolen..12
Profit...$190
Total money won...$475

Checking flop seems bad. We have a huge range advantage on this flop as the 3 bettor vs a wide range and the de facto nuts since we pretty much just lose to sets and likely aren’t getting blown off our equity by anything besides a couple of combo draws.

I don’t get your friend’s argument that we need to be worried about getting raised by 87s or how that would make this guy a maniac. 87s and JTs are a small part of his range and raising those hands, well mostly the diamond and club combos, are likely part of an equilibrium solution. If that’s all he’s raising on the flop as a bluff we can cbet very aggressively.

We definitely don’t need to be calling KQ here though unless he’s actually balanced. If his raising range is something like sets, some AA/AQ, Q9s, 87dd, 87cc, JTdd,JTcc, AJdd, ATdd we are getting absolutely smoked by that range. I think the absolute bottom of your continue range should be AQ without the Ad.