This thread consistently delivers the gold


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Also GL recording hand or range v range equities in real time, which is probably impossible anyway because of live villains' ranges being stupid half the time.

Hand range vs hand range is ridiculous and impossible. Most people have no idea what other peoples range is.

I'll say this again. All in EV is measured by Pokertracker and posted in the graph of every online player who posts here. I didnt make it up out of the thin blue sky. Its very helpful if you are interested in it for any number of reasons. If you dont care about it, thats fine too.

+1,000,000

Very first hand of the day. 2/5

EP limps. I raise to $25 Jh8h. A whale in the BB calls. Limper folds.

Flop ($55) JT4. Whale check/calls $30
Turn ($115) 6. Whale check/calls $60
River ($235) 8. Whale checks. He has $170 left. I shove. He thinks...shrugs...and pushed his chips forward. I table and he mucks.

Very next hand. We are 6 handed now.

I open $20 6h4h UTG+1. Next guy calls HU.

Flop ($45) Jc4c4d. I bet $20. He folds. I show.

Then I went card dead for quite a while. When a guy who raises J8s and 64s goes cards dead...its a total flat line of deadness.

I didnt get into any interesting spots all day. Mostly easy hands where I won a little or missed flops multiway and gave up.

I did limp JJ UTG once. 5 more people limped, then the button raised to $35 with $165 behind. I reraised to $200 and took it down.

I ended a short 3 1/2 hr session up $340. Most of it on that very first hand.

It seems you're not good enough at winning flips to be playing 2/5+. You should probably just stick to 1/2.

BTW, I believe you when you say your 1/2 games are as tough as other 1/2 games across the country.

Peak times 1/2 games. Anytime after 6 PM or anytime on weekends.

82% winning sessions with like zero downswings? Pretty sick. Obv 280 hours is nothing but will be cool to see how this converges over like 1k hours if you get it there...

Yeah, obviously Im running hot in that category (1/2 at peak hours). It cant be possible to sustain a win rate of over $50/hr but you can see why Im finding it hard to play 2/5 when Im doing this at 1/2. For now, Ive been playing 2/5 during the daytime and 1/2 when I play in the evening. On weekends Ive been splitting it up depending on who is playing.

The non peak hour 1/2 games in my room are super nitty with the avg age of players probably being 75+. There is no where near as much of a discrepancy in the 2/5 games between playing times.

Yeah, one would have thought that it'd be smarter to play 1/2 during day and 2/5 during peak but if it's true that your 1/2 dayregs are nitty old pensioners on a budget, maybe it's not better at all! Obv 1/2 peak is going to be incredible - kinda hard to see how it can be more profitable than 2/5 peak if the structure isn't super deep. It's clear you're just running significantly better at 1/2 of late but hey if the shoe fits wear it? Good work.

Congrats on the nice results over the 281 hours during peak times.

But, as you've stated, this is obviously a pretty small sample size, and I would go so far as to say almost meaningless. Obviously you're doing a good job of game selecting, which might even be more important than your general poker strategy, so keep that up.

Expecting to win 20bb/hr over an extended time at a 1/2 NL game where I'm assuming the BI is capped at 100bb is most likely wishful thinking. I mean, even if the games you are playing in are the best ever, they likely won't remain that way unless your fish filled line up remains exactly the same / doesn't run out of money / doesn't learn anything whatsoever, which is all very unlikely.

Gstill,veryniceresultssofar,goodluckG

The max buy in for this 1/2 game is 150BBs. The daytime geriatric players buy in from $60-$100 with a few $200s sprinkled in. My win rate during those non peak hours is $24/hr

The evening and weekend guys (moreso the evening guys no matter what the day of the week) buy in deeper. I normally see a couple $100, a couple $150+ and a couple $300 buy ins. The games are also much much looser action at these peak times.

I know that 280 hours is nothing, but Im not a newbie. I have over 3000 total hours in the past 21-22 months so Im a pretty good judge of running hot/cold and what is sustainable based on what Im seeing during these games. Im convinced that I can sustain 20BBs/hr during peak times at 1/2. Time will tell.

Yesterday I played 3 hours of 2/5 during the daytime and won $715. I won a few small hands and stacked a guy with a set vs a pair and FD.

EP raised $20. 2 MP calls. I call with 22 in LP

Flop ($85) 8s4h2h. Checked to 2nd guy in MP who bet $40. I raised to $125. It folded back to him and he shipped it for about $550. I called and help up. I won $390 more than my equity.

After dinner I played 1/2

Very first hand at the table

1) 2 EP limps. I limp Ad2d in MP. Couple more limps and then the BB makes it $5. LOL
We all call. 6 to the flop

Flop ($30) KdJd2c. BB bets $20. Folds to me. I know this guy and I am 100% sure he has AK/AA/KK. Most of these guys slow play a set so they can hit a high hand so Im 95% sure its not KK. I call HU

Turn ($70) 2s. He bets $100. I shove $275 total and he snap calls.

River is a brick. I table and he mucks.

2) I open UTG to $10 Qc9c and get 4 calls.

Flop ($50) QsTc4c. I bet $25. EP calls HU with only $50 behind.
Turn ($100) 8h. I shove. He calls with KcTd. LOL
River ($200) Ks. Blah. (89% favorite) There's $178 in lost All in EV for me.

3) Lost AQs vs QQ all in for $60 each

4) Here's my one obvious mistake.

EP limp. MP raises to $7. I make it $25 TT. MP calls HU

Flop ($55) J52. He check/calls $25
Turn ($105) 3. Check/check
River ($105) 3. He leads $40. This is a fold but I got stubborn and called and lost to QJ. I tried to put him on a hand that I beat like 88/99 which was very optimistic and dumb.

5) I open $10 with KJ. Young (20?) Chinese guy calls. I usually give young guys who carry themselves well at a poker table some credit. They are normally better than your avg donk. This guy was calling all of my raises though. Maybe because I was raising a lot and he had position on me or maybe just because he likes to gamble. I wasnt sure at this point yet.

HU to the Flop ($25) K73. I check/call $15
Turn ($55) 8. I check/call $27
River ($109) A. Hmmm...I already thought I was ahead. I could lead here to look like a bluff and maybe he calls me lite? He wont raise me without an ace. Meh...I just checked. He checked back and mucked when I tabled my hand.

6) Very next hand. EP limps. I make it $15 KhQc. Same Chinese guy calls HU again.

Flop ($35) 9c7c3c. I bet $20. He calls.
Turn ($75) 7h. X/X
River ($75) 4s. X/X. My King high is good. LOL.

7) Same Chinese guy straddles the button. It folds to me in the Cutoff. I raise to $20 QdTs. Im kinda blah about this raise because hes going to call me almost every time. I would rather just fold it I think. He calls HU

Flop ($43) Ac9s4d. I bet $25. He calls.
Turn ($93) Th. This is interesting. He def doesnt need and ace to call my flop bet so there's a good chance Im ahead now. I bet $25 again. He calls again
River ($143) 7c. I check. He bets $50. I fold.


I ended the 2/5 session up $715 but won $365 more than my all in equity. $+350 adjusted
I ended the 1/2 session up $285 but won $165 less than my all in equity. +$450 adjusted

Interesting discussion on AIEV here.

A couple thoughts I had:

1. By eliminating one (but not all) forms of variance, a correctly calculated AIEV number should always be a better indicator of your performance than actual results. Obviously not perfect as there are other forms of variance (being on the right side of coolers, getting strong hands, flopping sets, etc.), but should be better.
2. Unfortunately, Mike can't calculate true AIEV because he doesn't always see the other player's hand. That means that while he's eliminating one form of variance, he's potentially introducing bias into his calculation, most likely by persistently underestimating the equity of hands he doesn't see. For instance, when Mike gets it in on a draw, he also gets to see that he has some runner-runner outs that give him an extra 5% equity, and that he'll rightfully credit himself with. However, when his opponent bricks and doesn't show, Mike doesn't know his opponent's exact hand and has to estimate it. As a human being, he's probably underestimating his opponent's equity here, ignoring runner-runner draws, assuming that V has a draw, rather than a combo draw, etc. So, it's likely that his AIEV number is skewed in his favor, and it's possible that this bias overcomes the impact of reducing variance and makes the AIEV number a worse calculation of results, rather than better.

Mike - Say you get it in with 9h7h on a T97ss flop. Turn and river are 2d and 3c, and you win. How much equity do you credit yourself with here?

That's a valid argument but Ive addressed it before. The number of times I see the other guys exact cards is very high. I will estimate its 80% of the time.

If he wins, he has to show
If he shoves and I call his all in he has to show (like the 22 vs 85s hand I just posted)
Lots of people show when they dont have to especially if they get outdrawn, they had an overpair (lower than mine), set over set, pair and draw hands, straight flush draws...ect. They love to show their cards to show people they had a real hand.

So like I said, I estimate that I see their exact cards 80% of the time. Sometimes they say "I missed" when theres a FD on the flop and they muck. Sometimes they say "I knew you had me outkicked" on a Axx flop.

Those hands I can easily estimate the number of outs that they had. Now as you said, they could have a back door FD as well, so I always round up in their favor.

If I had AcQc and got all in on a As8d5h flop and he say "damn, you outkicked me!"...I give him credit for AJ which is about 14% equity. If he had AdJd he had about 18% so I give him 16%. Im only estimating equity 20-25% of the time since i know his cards the other times so I really doubt its going to throw off my calculations that far. Sometimes I give him a bit too much equity and sometimes I give him a bit too little.

In your example, a lot depends on the action. Did he raise preflop? Was it limped? That will narrow down his range considerably and give me a good idea what he had. If hes a TAG and he raised preflop and was willing to get all in on this flop he probably either had an overpair, or something like AsQs.

KsKh has 32% equity (I gave him backdoor FD)
AsQs has 35% equity.

So if he is a TAG and was the preflop raiser, I give him 33-34% equity. I always round to the nearest $5 anyway so I think its close enough.

A LAG could have T8s or QJs...something like that. 49% or 35%. I would probably give him 40%.

I understand your point that my math can never be perfect but I think its pretty close over all. I mean unless the 20-25% of the times I dont see villain cards, I underestimate his equity every time and never overestimate it, its going to even out over time anyway.

Maybe Ill keep track of the next 100 all ins to see how many times I see the cards and which ones I have to estimate equity.

Im gonna keep track for a while to see, but I just looked back at my last 8 all in hands from the last 2 days and 7 of them the villains cards were shown.

The only one of the 8 was the A2s hand that I posted earlier today. There's no doubt in my mind he had AK or AA so he had 2% or 4% equity. I gave him the 4% because Ive seen him raise AK to $5 a bunch of times. Rounded to the nearest $5 he had either $25 or $10 in equity. I gave him the full $25 even though it was probably $10. Over time I dont think these estimates are going to mean much either way.

Mike, as per our discussion elsewhere regards hands per hour...

I did 10 one hour samples this summer, and came up with 36, 35, 34, 34, 30, 30, 27, 27, 26 and 25 for an average of 30.4. All at different times (my table is reg infested so I doubt day/time makes much of a difference), all at tables I would consider "standard", all with shuffle machines and typical (and mostly competent) dealers. I also made notes on those sessions (I was tracking preflop aggression), and the higher hands per hours were all at tables I noted as very "meh".

Surprises me that you are getting ~40 hands per hour. That seems really high to me, at least in my experience. I'm actually surprised I average 30.4 hands per hour in my sample, my guess being I've gotten a lot less than that on average overall.

GFYIG

38-43 hands per hour is insanely high from my experience. (From the llsnl TT hand).

Interested to see what everyone else says.

That's what Ive heard many times here and even from a friend of mine that I play with almost daily. Then he counted a couple times and he now agrees with me that 40 is about right. Maybe my room just has super fast dealers? I counted one time at Best Bet in Jacksonville and got 40 there also.

Ill be playing after dinner tonight for 4-5 hrs. Ill report back.

As I said in the other thread, I'm not convinced speed of dealers has nearly as much affect as the type of game you play in. At ~40 hands per hour, wouldn't most hands have to be over preflop or on the flop? I don't care how fast your dealer is, but if all hands are going multiway to the flop / turn / river (a sign of a good game, imo) then I don't see how their dealing speed is going to make up for that.

Is your game a "good game" in the sense that stacks are going in flop/preflop most of the time with lol holdings? That's about the only case I could conceive of a good game @ 40 hands per hour.

GatleastinmyexperienceG

Not even close to anything like that. Stacks rarely go in at all. Im finding it strangely amusing that you think my game must be terrible if I get 40 hands/hr but at the same time you think my games must be great if Im winning at the rate I am (especially in the evening 1/2).

It cant be both can it?

PS..We have always played 10 handed which has to be slower. We just switched to 9 handed so my guess is I get 42ish now. We will see.

It’s usually not the speed of the dealers that matter. Rather the players tend to slow the game down.

1/2 40 hands/hr. Amazing.

I recon if 30 is standard casino procedure I could easily get 45 at one of my homegames. Dealer are absolute wizards. Sometimes you feel overwhelmed by how many hands you have to play! :') Might track it tonight and see what we get.

I played 1/2 this evening. I played exactly 3 hrs and 22 mins and was dealt 148 hands.

148 / 3.36 = 44 hands/hr. I cant figure out what the players are doing in these other games where people are saying they are only getting 30 /hr because the guys in my games are ordering food, watching TV, texting, picking their nose...ect

I had 2 all in hands and I saw villains cards both times.

1) 1 limper. I raise to $15 Jh7h OTB. BB calls HU
Flop ($33) Qd7dJd. He checks. I bet $20. He crai to $75. I call. Turn and river are bricks. He shows KcKs.

2) 2 limps. I raise to $15 Jc8c and get 3 calls this time. This table had zero action so I was raising more and more until people started to call.

Flop ($65) 8d 6d 3c. They check to me. I bet $40. One MP limper calls with only $35 behind

Turn ($145) Jd. He checks. I shove. River is a brick. He shows his 9d9h even though he didnt have to since I am the one who shoved.

That's 9 out of 10 all ins so far where I saw villains exact cards.