Why not? I like to throw in a crazy play now and then to make myself look like a gambler when in reality everything is calculated. Occasionally Ill flip a coin right on the table when deciding whether or not to call or not in a very close spot. This is the guy who made the comment about me being so tight. Shoving like this could get him to fold a mid pair when all I have is overcards.

Example: He has 88 and the flop comes T72. He might fold the way I played it since he thinks Im so tight (which is ridiculous) and I shoved without looking. That may push him to thinking I have AA/KK. On this same flop I have 29% equity so if he calls its still +EV for me.

Of course once I saw the flop, I wanted him to call, but I would've shoved anyway after seeing the flop.

PS.. Technically if he pushes his stack in he is going all, not calling. My bet is not even binding since the action changed. My bet would only be binding if he checked. I would never in a million years angle someone like that but its been done to me before I knew better.

You purposefully went all in on out of turn? Is that not an angle in itself? Assuming it was purposeful, you're deliberately breaking the rules to make your hand look stronger.

And why isn't it binding? I don't understand this.

To be clear, if you bet out of turn, you can later change your action if somebody else bets? Like you could fold if he went all-in on the flop??? If so that's messed up....

Unrelated questions:

A) What percentage of hands do you write down? It seems like a lot since many of the hands in the most recent post look pretty standard with you just hitting the nuts or close, and then value betting.

B) Where'd you come up with MikeStarr?

I just don't think it's a very good play in general. Mostly fish do this dark jam flop with AK - but then again, this is "unorthodox lines" so wp?

.

Very true. I ran hotter than hell in the last session which was very welcome after my last 6-7 session were colder than ice.

There were a few other interesting hands though. Here's one.

Limped pot 5 ways. I have Ah5h in the BB.

Flop ($25) QhQd8h. I check. Same whale as from several previous listed hands bets $25 from EP and it folds to me. This guy bets all the time. He doesnt need much to bet here. Its unlikely he has a Q. I min check raise to $50. He calls. Now its a little more likely he has the Q but Im not worried yet.
Turn ($125) 4h. I bet $60. He calls quickly.
River ($245) 4s. In the past I would bet $60 again here with a Q or with the hand I have or a few other hands. Its basically a blocking bet/thin value bet. Its a very rare player who will raise that river bet without a Q. The other option is to check, but he will probably check behind with hands like 99 or any 8. I also wouldnt want to call a large bet. However this time I checked and he did check behind with T8. Mistake on my part.

Jumping in a little late, but one item I would note PA is J9 can make 2x the number of nut straights as AK, and can make a 2nd nut straight as well.

AK can only make exactly 1 nut straight - broadway. That's it. 1 option, and you must have TJQ on board. Set of Queens might pay off, K9 might pay off, but 98 and two pair probably fold. The A can be used in a 4-card wheel also, but then its only 3rd nut and if 6x makes it to the flop and you end with a 4-card wheel, 6x at least has a draw and probably continues.

J9 on the other hand can make the nut J-high straight and the nut Q-high straight. It can also participate as 2nd nut K-high straight. On four card straights, it could be a 2nd nut 9-high or four card broadway.

So J9 has a lot more versatility. Not every flop is going to be alphabet soup ... when it is, it is easy to get away from if not connected.

Very nicely said

This hand from today's session is just too crazy to not post here.

UTG solid player opens to $25. MP lady who appears to not really know what shes doing (but I didnt know she was THIS bad) calls. LP calls as well.

Flop ($80) Kh9hQd. UTG bets $60. MP lady calls. LP shoves all in for like $400. UTG calls. The lady calls all in for like $300.

EP has K9s
LP has KQ
MP lady has 9d3h

Turn 6h
River Ah

Lady hits runner runner flush with the 3h to win a huge pot.

Standard.

Hands from today

1) 5 way limped pot. I have 77 in BB
Flop ($25) 872. Checked to the lady from the above 93 hand. This hand was played early on before I saw how bad she was. She bets $5. WTF? The button and SB call $5. I check raise to $45. The lady calls HU. At this point Im thinking theres a good chance she has 56 or T9.
Turn ($125) A. I bet $100. She think for a while and calls. She has $250 behind.
River ($325) 6. I really didnt want to see that card. Not sure what to do here. If she has T9 I just got rivered. If she has 56 shes not calling anything. I really cant figure out what else she has. I bet $75. She tanks and finally calls and mucks. She claimed she had 22. Thats hard to believe but she was probably telling the truth. She had no idea what she was doing.

2) Button straddle. 3 limps. I make it $50 in MP with AQ. A very tight player in the SB calls. All 3 limpers call.
Flop ($250) A86. SB open shoves $700. It folds to me and I cover him. Ive never seen him do anything like this before. He doesnt play many hands and doesnt call man raises, especially $50 raises. I thought he may have AK but Im not calling a bet like that without a better idea of what he has. I folded and he showed 97s. WTF? That came out of left field.

3) 2 EP limps. I raise to $35 with AA. Very solid player calls in the SB. BB calls. Both limpers call
Flop ($175) A43 rainbow. Checked to me. I bet $75. SB calls HU. What does a slid player have here? AQ? Seems remote. 56s? Did he really call $35 OOP as the first caller with 56s not knowing if anyone else would call or not?
Turn ($325) 8. He had about $400 behind. I went for the kill shot targeting 44 or 33 and bet $225. He winced and then folded.

4) Limped pot. I have QT in BB.
Flop ($20) TT5. SB checks. I bet $15. SB calls HU
Turn ($50) 3. He check/calls $30
River ($110) 8. He checks. I bet $75. He crai to $195 total. I call and lose to KT.

5) Same player from hand 4 limps. I raise to $25 AA. He calls HU.
Flop ($55) T94. He leads $25. I call. Im putting him on KT/QT/JT
Turn ($105) 7. He leads $25. I raise to $100. He instacalls and then shoves $145 all in blind before the river is dealt.
River ($305) J. If he had shoved after the J hit the river I would seriously consider folding but as played I called. He had QT.

6) I open to $20 9s6s in MP. BB whale calls
Flop ($40) 8s8c7h. He check.calls $20
Turn ($80) 7c. X/X
River ($80) 5d. He bets $45. I call and he instamucks without saying a word.

Had another really good day.

I got stacked three times in two days to this exact runner-runner flush thing. In each case it was their only outs. What the hell are these people doing in the hand? Amazingly, when they call and I'm a 97% favorite I've yet to win, though I've won a lot of coin flips and 70/30 type hands.

Congrats.

#2) People will shove draws in big pots (as will I), but I dont remember that last time I saw someone shove $700 into a $250 pot. Also, this guy plays the horses as he plays poker. Hes busy with his his horse program and just folds away all day. Hes a rock. He probably plays something like 12/6. I have no idea where this play came from but Im never calling here. He shouldnt have this range being a rock, but if he makes this move with A8, A6, AK, 86, 88, 66 and 97...I cant win by calling. If he showed me 97, Im calling of course. Its not about the amount of money, but hes not doing this with AT so Im not calling and risking that $700 just because he might have a draw (and Ive never seen him shove a draw before). It was a rainbow flop so he had just a str8 draw. Good for him. Next hand.

Someone flipped the boom switch. I just finished my best session ever and its also been my best 3 day run ever.

Never had 2 hands like this in the same day before.

1) Button straddles. I call in SB with 66. We go 5 to the flop
Flop ($50) 6s9s9c. I check. BB bets $20. MP calls. I call
Turn ($110) Td. I check. BB bets $50. MP raises to $150. I check raise all in to $475. They both call. BB has K9. MP has T9

River 2 and I bust them both

2) Limped pot 5 ways. I have 88 in BB
Flop ($25) TcTs4d. I bet $15. EP calls and we're HU
Turn ($55) 8h. I bet $25 and he calls.
River (125) 8c. Clearly he has a T here almost always. I check. He bets $100. I crai to $475 and he snapcalls with T9

Is there a typo in hand 1? If not MP should be raking ze chips. Sub'd, lots of interesting hands itt, Florida games look juicy!

Good pot steal from MP

Oops. I they had K9 and J9

1) Button straddle. 2 EP limpers. I limp Ac5c in MP. we end up going 6 to the flop
Flop ($60) 4c8d6s. Checked around
Turn ($60) 2c. EP bets $35. I raise to $115 with a double gutter and nut FD draw. He calls HU
River ($290) 9c He checks. I bet $200 and he folds. I think I bet too much. People just dont call $200 bets very often without a big hand. He cant really have a really big hand here very often unless he has a smaller flush or had 75 but most people wouldve reraised me on the turn with 75 or a set.

2) Same player opens to $15. He's been opening to $15 with marginal hands and opening bigger with premiums. I 3 bet him in MP to $55 with Ac9c. He calls.

Flop ($115) 8s4c3d. He checks. I bet $65. He folds.

3) Button straddle. One of the biggest OMCs on earth raises to $40. I fold AQs

4) Very next hand. I open to $20 AJs. Some random guy Ive never seen before shoves $110. I call HU and beat his AK. I told you Im sun running didnt I?

5) This one is strange. Button straddle. EP limps. I limp KcJc in MP. I would raise this most of the time but Im getting very little respect with my raises and didnt want to get called behind me and be in a big pot. We go 5 to the flop

Flop ($50) Kh5s2s. Checked to me. I check. Checked to button who bets $30. I call HU
Turn ($110) 8s. I'm pretty sure I was ahead on the flop. This guy kept betting last to act and I didnt want him to check behind and win with a 4th spade so I lead $45. He folds.

You might be wondering why Im only posting hands that I won. Did I mention Im bullet proof right now? When the cards fall your way you feel like the best player in the world.....just like you feel like you forgot how to play poker when the cards turn against you and you lose every hand. Crazy game.

I don’t know where to being. Let me start by saying, you are my hero. I’m not being sarcastic here. I follow your posts here and in llsnl.

You realize this stuff doesn’t happen in real life. I’m being facetious here. It’s just that in most games I play it doesn’t seem to as often as reflected in your posts. Obviously, you aren’t posting mundane hands.

How you get players to pay you off is amazing. Hand 1 Geez.
Question – do you often lead this flop? I mostly lead. Especially first to act with 5 players in.

I had a hand yesterday like a combination of both hands. I flopped a boat with 77 – flop JJ7. I lead. OMC only caller. Turn is an 8. I lead again. He shoves. This guy sat down less than an orbit. But I know he has quads. Maybe 88. He never has J8 – EVER, never would play it. We are short stacked, 60bb, so I call. (I had just gotten my KK cracked the hand prior by a short stacker, ironically by 77. I was waiting until the button to reload.) My read also consisted of him sitting down and straddling UTG. I think to myself – wow was my read off as I watched him sit. After action continued around back to him, he realized he wasn’t the BB. Read was spot on. Guy is never straddling. Anyway, he had quads. That's how we mortals run, unlike you.

I live about 3 hours from your neck of the woods. Hope to get down there sometime. I’ll let you know if I do. Would be a pleasure to meet you.

Keep up the good work and good posts.

TY, Sir.

Yesterday while playing I glanced to my left and the guys phone was sitting on the rail. The phone was open to a text conversation. I assume it was with his wife. It said the following:

Player: I plan to get back to depositing again soon. Just a setback. I know we are short on cash
Wife: I know
Player: I really need to get back on track before you tell be to go get a job
Wife: You worry too much
Player: Sometime I think you're oblivious to how close we are to being in real trouble

I stopped reading after that. I felt dirty reading it but it was like a train wreck that you cant look away from. This guy is probably 40ish. Ive played with a him several times and I would describe his as solid/decent player. I wouldve estimated him at a $25/hr winner.

I dont know if he quit a job making bigger money and had unrealistic expectations that he could make $60+/hr playing poker or if he just sucks and I just played with him a few times when he ran hot or what. Its a good example of how hard it is to be a poker pro. Even guys who seem to be solid struggle. There are just very very few people who can make a reasonable living playing poker.

Or his biggest leak might not be poker. Pit games, blow, whatever ... lots of very good poker players make enough money at the tables to lose it elsewhere.

People are optimistic...I think this especially applies at poker, and it's more problematic than for typical careers. People can easily delude themselves into thinking their actual winrate is higher than their results (often it is, but often not), or worse, that they can "print money" by playing poker so the answer to any financial troubles is just playing more poker. And many "pros" do not have a bankroll large enough to handle -4sigma level variance. They fall on hard times and dip into their bankroll, and suddenly they're running bad one day and find they're on their last buy-in.

And a lot of players are attracted to the lifestyle so they can live like a baller. $25/hour is a living wage in most locations, particularly if his girlfriend works, but not enough to live the lifestyle they may want.

That text exchange is kind of depressing though. I wonder what the text messages of actual losing players look like.

Finally, a post I feel qualified to reply to. I'll post some of my texts later.

I'm dialed in right now. I'm really on my "A" game. I'm not stupid though. I'm running hotter than hell, but when I'm running hot, it somehow makes me more focused. Im getting more playable hands, I'm in more pots, Im paying more attention and Im reading people better. When Im running cold, I rarely tilt off money, but I get bored. I dont pay as much attention and I play my "B" or "C" game.

1) Fish opens to $25 in EP with $140 total stack. I make it $100 with KK. A little more than a normal 3 bet. The next guy 4 bets to $300 ($500 total) and looks like he about to have an orgasm at the table. It folds back to short stack who calls. I fold KK. The 4 better had AA. I can only remember folding KK preflop one other time, but this one was fairly obvious to me. The guy with AA is the same guy who had K9 in hand #1 in post #138. Most people have a rule that they never fold KK preflop. Pretty dumb rule IMO. Clearly its very rare, but never say never.

2) Button straddle. 3 limpers. I limp Q9s in the cutoff. If it wasnt straddled I would raise this most times.

Flop ($50) 9s8s8c. Checked to MP fish who bets $10. I raise to $45. MP calls HU
Turn ($140) 3h. He checks. I bet $60. He calls.
River ($260) Cant remember the river card but it didnt bring the flush. He checks. I check back and beat 55.

3) 3 limps. I have AQs in the BB and decide not to raise.
Flop ($20) AdQd3s. Checked around. I was looking to check raise.
Turn ($20) 4c. SB bets $15. I raise to $45. It folds to the button who shoves for $375. SB folds. The button is an old cranky reg. Old like 90. But hes not an OMC. He plays very strange. He hardly ever raises preflop, but hes always looking for someone else to raise so he can make a huge overbet reraise. Basically he doesnt play post flop. He just picks a spot and chunks a bunch of chips in the pot and dares you to call.

I seriously doubt he has 52 here. Hes almost always has a set or 2 pair. Sometimes he will do this with AK. I call and he says "2 pair" and I showed right away. River bricked and MHIG.

4) The 5/10 game broke and one of the players Ive never seen before came to my table. He seemed pretty decent in the 45 mins up to this point. He was raising to $15 a fair amount which I actually hate in a 2/5 game but most of the 5/10 player open smaller amounts ($35 in 5/10).

So he opens to $15 UTG+1. 1 caller and then I 3 bet him to $55 with A5s. The button calls $55 all in. Then the SB shoves all in for $190. It folds back to me. UGH!

I got myself into a mess here. The pot is $335. Its $135 to me. I need 29% equity to call. I figured its probably pretty close depending on what you figure their ranges to be. If I call and win, Im going to win huge image points so I decide to make the call.

SB had KK
Short stack had JTs
Which gave me 30% equity. My call was just about neutral EV which is a huge win in this spot IMO. I lost the hand though. Blah

5) 1 limper. LP fish raises to $25 with only $80 behind. Im in the SB with AdQd. I should reraise here and put him all in, but the limper and I were pretty deep. Around $900 effective. I decided to just call and the limper folded.

Flop ($60) Jd 7d 4c. LP shoves all in out of turn. I was planning on shoving myself to try to get something like 99 to fold. If he calls thats fine too. Anyway, he shoved first so I called. The board bricked out but he had KQ and A high was good. Good thing he shoved first. He may have folded if I shoved into him.

6) 3 limps. I raise to $25 with Jh9h. Two limpers call.
Flop ($80) Th8s4h. They check. I bet $50. First limper calls HU. This si the same calling station from hand #2.
Turn ($180) Ac. This is clearly a great card for me to fire again, but not against this guy. I dont think he will fold so I check behind.
River ($180). Some brick card. He checks and I give up. He wins with K8. He probably folds if I triple barrel but there much easier way to get this guys money. He can have this one.

7) Very next hand. 3 limpers. I raise to $25 with Js9s. Same 2 limpers call again.
Flop ($80) Ac8h4d. Checked around
Turn ($80) Ts. First limped checks. Next guy bets $40. I call. Other guy calls also
River ($200) 7c. They both check to me. I have no idea what they have now. I bet $125 and they both folded.

Last 4 days
21 hrs.
+$4162

I'm glad you're running good but I'd be careful about that mentality that you're playing better. Maybe you are, but there is one clear mistake (#6), and a few other hands that may be fine but look questionable.

#1 - This may be a mistake 100BB deep. Is this guy really only 4-betting KK+? If so, good fold. But if he adds even QQ or AK you should call, particularly with that short stack likely to call as well with a weak range.

#2 - It seems like you're overplaying a weak top pair, unless I'm misreading the hand and you have spades. You don't beat much but lower pocket pairs, some of which (like 22) aren't particularly likely even from a station. On the other hand you lose to A9, K9, 99+, 33, and all 8s. You beat some draws, which also aren't particularly likely given the way the hand was played. I'm assuming the river card is below an 8, otherwise you probably wouldn't consider it a blank. I'm assuming the 5 (doesn't affect the analysis much unless the card is higher than a 9). There are about 120 likely combos that beat you (more the higher the river card is), and even if this guy is playing all spades and low pocket pairs that's only 79 combos you beat. Of course he can have lower 9s you beat like J9o but this increases the probability of lower 8s also.

#3 - I don't know that this is a mistake, but why not raise AQs against two limpers? Same question on the flop. Two limpers aren't particularly likely to bet that flop.

#5 - I don't know about this one. I can sympathize not wanting to play AQs OOP deep in a raised pot, but if you're not going to raise your best hands, what are you raising? If you make it $80 and both players call, you're basically heads up with an SPR of 3.5, which is great for AQs. And if just the shorty calls, that's also good, as his range should be quite weak.

#6 - I think you made a BIG mistake not barreling here. I don't get why you gave up on the turn with so much equity. You have 16 outs against most made hands. You will get there on the river 35% of the time. Against this guy you actually have 22 outs and will get there 48% of the time. But let's assume you have 16 outs. How often does he have to fold to a third barrel for this to be profitable?

Suppose you bet 125 OTT (I'd pick some amount to make shoving the river effective but don't know the effective stacks, so assuming 100BBish). The river pot is then 180 + 2*125 = 430 when called. Suppose you then shove for 350 regardless whether you hit.

EV(triple barrel) = P(fold second barrel)*180 + (1-P(fold second barrel))*(P(fold third barrel)*305 + (1-P(fold third barrel))*(P(win | call)*655 - P(lose | call)*475)

Let's assume you win when you hit your 16 outs (.3478) and lose otherwise (.6522). For the sake of this example, suppose he's a bit stationy and folds on the turn with probability .2 and folds on the river with probability .4

EV(triple barrel) = .2 * 180 + (1 - .2) * .4 * 305 + (1 - .4) * (.3478 * 655 - .6522 * 475)

EV(triple barrel) = 84.41

With these conservative assumptions, checking the turn cost you $84.

In fact it cost you $172.86 since all 22 outs were good.

Just how much of a calling station does this guy need to be for this to be a check? Suppose he folds the turn with probability x and folds the river with probability 2x (I don't want to make things too complicated with multiple variables).

Solve 0 = x * 180 + (1 - x) * 2x * 305 + (1 - 2x) * (.3478 * 655 - .6522 * 475)

We get x = .0912. If he folds the turn 9% and the river 18%, you're good. And this is with the 16 outs assumption. Unless he's the biggest station on the planet, it's a great spot to triple barrel. With the 22 outs assumption, he cannot possibly fold enough for your triple barrel to not be profitable.

This is one of the pitfalls of running good Ed Miller talks about in "The Course," namely, losing aggressiveness. This may just be a random mistake but it sounds like it's because you're running good: "He probably folds if I triple barrel but there much easier way to get this guys money. He can have this one." I mean it sounds like you're winning so much money you just decided to let this one slip by, even though doing so is almost certainly a huge mistake. $84 is two hours of work playing 2/5, and that's pretty much the best case scenario for this mistake.

If P(fold to triple barrel) > .5 as you suggest in "He probably folds if I triple barrel" the mistake is much worse, possibly $200+.

You can take my analysis on most of these hands with a grain of salt, but I do know math. Whether to barrel #6 is just a math problem, and the answer is "fire away captain".