That does happen to me occasionally too

I’m gonna warm you right now that this is a post of the ‘how many angels can dance on the head of a pin’ variety

Hand 4

I might have got something wrong here but here are some thoughts.

I like your read of super-nit having pretty much precisely AQ/99 and sometimes AhKh. I’d also add occasionally AA and QQ, as super nits can flat QQ, and can flat AA so as not to be 3 betting almost literally only AA (and/or be ‘trapping’ with it).

If we discount the AA/QQ/AhKh to just two combos instead of three then we are losing to three combos and splitting with four.

To keep the numbers simple, let’s say the pot is 300 and you are thinking of betting 200 to get him to fold AQ.

When he folds AQ instead of checking it back, you win 150.
When he has you beat, you lose 200.

Three times you lose 200 and four times you win 150. So that looks neutral EV for you to bet or check the river.

(I guess a benefit of the bet might be that it denies him the opportunity of betting his AQ to make you fold your AQ but that is probably almost a zero chance from this guy)

I guess we can play around with the discounting factors for AA/QQ/AhKh. If we get more than two combos then the bet is -EV. If we get less than two combos then it’s +EV.

I would actually discount the AA/QQ/AhKh to less than 1.5 combos to be honest, so a bet is probably a good decision.

...My guesses fwiw lol
AA nit flats 20% of the time or less
QQ nit flats 40% of the time or less
AhKh nit flats 70% of the time or less
Total = 1.3 combos max .... So hurrah for the bet!

61.3 hours played
98 pots taken down preflop
Preflop profit...$1396
Total profit....$5521
Win rate...$90.14/hr

Preflop profit is 25% of total profit.

Run good continues....

1) I overlimp 66 in MP. We go 4 to the flop.

Flop ($20) 9h8c6d. Checked to me. I bet $15. SB and MP call
Turn ($60) 8s. SB leads $30. MP folds. I call.
River ($120) Ks. He bets $50. I raise to $160. He calls with T7.

2) I open to $20 AdAs in the HJ. Button and BB call. BB is same guy from HH1
Flop ($60) 4h3d2h. BB checks. I bet $45. They both call
Turn ($195) 4c. BB checks. I bet $100. Only BB calls
River ($395) Ks. He checks with $115 left. I shove and he folds.

3) EP limps. Cutoff raises $15. I call SB 9c7c. EP calls.

Flop ($45) Jc2c6h. Checked to cutoff who bets $30. I call and we're HU
Turn ($105) 8s. I check. He bets $50. I cr to $200. He folds.

4) I open $20 8h7h in MP. Cutoff and button call

Flop ($60) AdAc2s. Check around.
Turn ($60 2c. I check. Cutoff checks. Button bets $25. I cr to $75. They both fold.

5) EP limps. MP raises $15. I call 9d7d SB. EP calls.
Flop ($45) Kc8h6d. I lead $25. EP raises to $75. MP folds. I call
Turn ($195) Ah. I check. He bets $125. I fold

6) I open $20 AcJc in EP. MP calls. A total and complete maniac 3 bets to $60 OTB. I call. Now MP shoves $500 all in. Maniac folds. MP just got busted by the maniac the previous hand and hes clearly on tilt. I go into the tank and eventually call.

We run twice. He had TT and we chopped.

Ive now "run it twice" 26 times since they started allowing it in my room. Ive won the first board 19 times (73%). Ive lost both boards only once. I had 61% equity in that hand and it was only a $170 total pot.

Ive run $2400 over equity in pots when I ran it twice but if I had run them once I would have run $3950 over equity. That's very strange because since Feb 1st when they started this, Im -$2825 in All in EV. It seems I only run good in All ins when we run it twice.

71.5 hours played
117 pots taken down preflop
Preflop profit...$1657
Total profit....$5773
Win rate...$80.76/hr

Preflop profit is 29% of total profit.

Fun hand from today. Complete fish straddles UTG. I limp KsQs in EP. 2 more limps. Straddler raises to $50. I reraise to $200. It folds back to UTG who shoves $490. I call. We run it twice.

First board...5432Q
2nd board....TT664

If he had any Ace he wins both. But he didnt have an Ace. He had Kd7d and I won the first board and we chopped the 2nd board. I win 3/4 of the pot.

And the table was in disbelief to see "Nitty Mike" limp raise KQs. They probably thought you were boozed up.

The guy to my left did say "WTF was that?"

I was going to track for 100 hours, but Im putting this little project to bed.

79.2 hours played
132 pots taken down preflop
Preflop profit...$1840
Total profit....$6789
Win rate...$85.70/hr

Preflop profit is 27% of total profit.


I dont think running hot or cold affects the money taken down preflop. It should be about the same amount. You raise, they fold. No luck involved in getting good flops or good runouts. No run good or run bad to worry about. So the total preflop money Ive won should be about the same even if I wasnt running good. If I had run at $50/hr my preflop profit would be 46% of my total profit.

My goal here was to see how much stealing pots preflop adds up to. That's more than just a significant amount of money stealing small pots preflop.

Cliff notes.....if you play in nitty games, raise your ass off preflop and run them over.

Running hot if your win rate is over 50 hr =) at 2/5

I was running that good until the inevitable break even 500 hour stretch =(.

I was playing sessions where I got j3 83 K5 ect for like 10 dealers. It was especially bad for me because the table plays so crazy.

Finally manage to get AA AI on the flop just to lose to a maniacs flopped top pair who runs a back door flush =(

Be grateful to not go through that nonsense yet.

Ive been thru that crap many times. This is just a small sample while keeping track of my "nit income". Stealing nits preflop dead money.

So, Ive been off the grid for a while. I just got back from a 2 week trip to Alaska and hadn't updated this thing much before that so I thought Id post some hands from the last 2 days.

Yesterday I had been playing just a few mins when I saw a maniac at a different table so I changed tables. Here's the very first hand dealt to me.

1) I open to $20 JJ from EP and get 3 LP calls. The maniac 3 bets to $125. Trust me when I tell you that JJ is the nuts here. I shoved all in for $475. It folded back to himn and he snap called me with Q2s and hit a Q

2) About 10 mins later the maniac straddles and I open to $35 with AQs. I get 1 caller and the Mr Maniac re pops it to...well I dont remember how much it was. I was expecting it and was planning to shove which I did. He called with 43s and hit a 4 to beat me.

3) Not too long later he straddles the button. I raised to $40 with QdJd and he called HU

Flop ($80) KdQhJh. I bet $100 and he called.
Turn ($280) 8s. I shoved $350 and he called with Kh3h and he missed the river.

Those were the only 3 hands I played with him but check this one out...

He opens to $105 UTG with 74. MP makes it $500. He calls with another $400 behind
Flop ($1000) T42. He shoves it in and gets called by QQ. QQ holds.

Back to mostly normal poker for today.

4) Strong player who Ive played 5/10 with opens to $20 in EP. I call in the SB with AK. We are HU

Flop ($40) 654. I check/call $25
Turn ($90) T. I check.. He bets $80. I cr to $225 knowing there's no way he can call with this board unless he has TT. He smirks and folds.

5) Action table....2 EP limps. I overlimp Jd8d in MP. 2 more limps and then the button (plays 5/10 but is terrible) makes it $20. Everyone calls including me. 6 to the flop.

Flop ($120) KdQc4d. EP who is a total whale leads $25. Folds to me. If I call its pretty obvious that Im on a draw. I felt like I was in a weird spot to raise with so many people behind me (which is why I shouldve folded preflop) and I sure wasnt folding. So I decided to min raise to $50 hopefully scaring anyone with Kx into not raising. It folded back to the button who raised to $150. It folded back to me. I was pretty surprised that the whale who led out actually folded. I dont think he wouldve folded to one raise.

I called the extra $100.

Turn ($445) 6d. I check. He bet $100. I crai to $390. He tank called.
River ($1225) Td....Im still good.

6) EP limps. I limp 99 in early MP. We go 4 to the flop.

Flop ($20) Js9s7h. Check to me. I bet $20. LP goes all in for $100. The BB tank calls. We are about $1000 effective. EP folds and its to me....I decided to call instead of reraising

Turn ($320) Ac. He checks. Im pretty sure now that he doesnt have T8 which worried me a but on the flop. I bet $165. He called.

River ($650) 8d. He checks. I really didnt put him on a T and probably shouldve bet but I decided to just check back. He has Ks8s and missed the FD.

7) MP opens to $15. The button calls. I 3 bet to $80 with KK in the SB. MP calls and then the button shoves in $250. EP only had $190 so I called as did EP.

EP had JT
Button A5

Board AKTQ3....blah

I would't be too surprised that a whale type donked into the PFR in a multiway pot.

Not much excitement these days. Concerned that season won't be as great this year or will start later / end earlier.

Id say this summer has been better than last summer, so Im actually optimistic about the snowbird season. Ive actually already seen a couple of them in the room.

Lots of people in the strat forum seem to think Im passive. So with that in mind, here are a few hands from the last 2 days.

1) I open to $20 in EP with AQ and get calls from MP and LP and the BB. We are all about $500 deep.

Flop ($80) JsTh8s. I check. A fairly tight guy in MP bets $60 and it folds back to me. I check raise to $200 with my double gutter. He surprises me and calls.

Turn ($480) 9d. No brainer play now. I stick it all in. He calls. The river bricks and I double up.

2) I open to $20 7c5c in EP. I get 3 calls again. I get calls from EP, MP and LP.

Flop ($80) Qc8d6h. I check. EP checks. Solid player in MP who Ive seen make some big folds bets $60. LP folds. I check raise to $200. Everyone folds. MP shows a Q as he folds.

3) UTG straddle. 2 limps. I raise to $55 Kh9h in the SB. A rec player in MP calls

Flop ($140) 8h5c3s. I bet $105. He thinks and calls.
Turn ($350) Ah. I shove. Its $390 to him. He instafolds.

4) 2 EP limps. MP raises $15 and gets 2 calls. I 3 bet to $115 SB K3s. They all fold.

5) UTG straddle. 2 calls. I raise to $50 AQs OTB. UTG 3 bets to $125. It folds back to me. I stick $600 all in. He calls and says "I need a 2"

Board runs out 956JK. I table my hand. He shows the 2h and says "You're good". That was a nice surprise!

6) 2 EP limps. I overlimp 7h5h in LP. SB raises $20. BB and the rest of us call. 5 to the flop.

Flop ($100) AhJc6d. X around
Turn ($100) 4d. Checked to UTG who bets $30. Fold to me. I raise to $105. He tanks and finally calls HU.
River ($310) Qd. He checks. Hmmmm....I decide to fire $230. He calls with 5d3d.

My friggin 7 high was good on the turn. LOL

7) EP limps. I raise to $25 AK in LP. He calls HU

Flop ($50) QT4. X/X
Turn ($50) 3. He bets $20. I call
River ($90) 2. He bets $20. I raise to $100. He folds AT face up.

Bump. What's up Mr. Starr?