We started the Day with this:



First BJ session ran it up to this:



Then second session cashed out with this:

The last two days we bricked the $400 daily tourneys again (now up to 11 tourney entries without a cash), then had two out of three bad cash game sessions:

Encore 2/5 NL: -$310 in 2.0 hours
Bellagio 5/10 NL: -$2,300 in 4.0 hours
(playing from 2am - 6am while tired is perhaps not a good idea!)
Encore 2/5 NL: +$585 in 1.5 hours

Running totals:

NL Cash Games: + $5,941 in 161.0 hours ($36.90/hour)
MTTs: +$1,923 in 98.0 hours ($19.62/hour)

Luckily our huge black-jack winnings mean were still way up for this extended Vegas trip.

On to Day 1A of the $250K GTD ($600 entry) today...

Live poker downswings are brutal. Since returning to Las Vegas for the remainder of the Wynn Classic Series we have the following results:

MTTs: 0 cashes for 17 entries in 12 days: -$9,800 USD
NL Cash: 41.0 hours: -$4,100 USD

Total downswing: -$13,900 USD in 110 hours

We did get ahead of this downswing by running hotter than the sun in Black-Jack, but in the past few days we gave most of those winnings back to the house too

We certainly ran terrible in MTTs, apart from a single case of a drunken donk-off, we basically busted from all of our tourneys in super obvious spots just running bad.

In cash games, however, we know we played bad, drank too much, gambled too much, and basically treated the sessions like steam-offs from our MTTs rather than serious money-making opportunities.

Our game selection wasn't always good, such as tackling a reg-infested 5/10 game at Bellagio when we were tired.

As such, we need to refocus when we get back to Montreal and build some serious cash game sessions over the next few weeks before the Party Poker Millions MTT series in April.

We might come also back to Vegas for the HPT Event in late-March...?

My first session back in Montreal after my Vegas blowout and I got into a great game late in the evening, but late night luck was not on my side and we ended-up booking a loss, but mostly happy with my play, except maybe Hand 5 below (I'd appreciate comments on Hands 5 and 6 in particular).

Venue: Playground Poker Club
Game: 2/5, 5/5 and 5/T NL
Max Buy-In: $500 / $1,000 / $3,000
Rake: 5% max $15 + $2 for BBJ/High Hand Promotions
Hours Played: 13.5
Profit: -$1,300
Expenses: $0

Background: My opening 2/5 table was actually pretty soft, but then got progressively harder as recs bust and were replaced by regs. I noticed a couple of fish in the 5/5 game, so moved over there. It became a 5/T game with $3,000 max buy-in when the VIP 10/25 game broke-up and a couple of the whales came over (and a few good players too). It was a great game with huge pots / swings for most players. I tried to pick my spots, but the cards meant I was mostly in marginal equity spots and they just didn't work out for me. Let's review some key hands, starting with 3 from the 2/5 game, then 3 from the 5/T game.

Hand 1

EP Limp, MP $25, Call 67 in HJ, CO, BB call, limper folds.
Flop ($100) 578: X Hero Bets $50 CO calls, fold, fold. Turn ($200) 5: XC $70
River ($340) J XF to $150 bet.

I'm pretty sure I'm beat on the river and I have a relatively easy fold, but could I win the hand by check-raising the turn? I think with a paired board I'm wary of getting stacked in this spot.

Hand 2

MP limp, SB calls, I check A3 in BB.
Flop ($15) Q56: X, Hero Bets $10, Limper Calls, SB Raises to $40, I make it $125, he ships and I call for $480 total. We run it twice and I win both versus 55!

This was a case of realising my equity, but reducing variance by running it twice. Thoughts on running it twice?

Hand 3

Old tight guy limps in MP, 3 calls to my BB and I make it $35 with 99 and get 3 calls.
Flop ($140) 766: Bet $80 and only the old guy calls. Before the turn is dealt I ask to see his stack, which he has hidden behind his hands. I see $250 in reds and decide to ship all non heart turns.
Turn ($300) A which I think is a bad card for him, so I ship but get snapped by AQ. Moreover he had one black $100 chip hidden in his stack. Angle shot by an old guy!!!

Move to 5/5 at 9.30pm added $600 to top-up to $1k, meaning I'm in for $1,300 total after having lost around $300 at 2/5. Nothing notable at 5/5, although I chipped-up winning mostly small pots and the game became 5/10 with my stack around $1,800. I still had $1k in my pocket, so I could have topped-up, but I decided that my stack was playable enough as it was. Most of the whales / good regs bought-in for $3k.

Early on there was a massive pot where the main whale in the game (the lynchpin of the VIP high-limit games at Playground) managed to win $6k+ pot flopping the nut straight versus top-set on JT9. He played pretty loose though-out the session, as we see from this hand we played:

Hand 4

Whale limps button and Hero makes it $50 from SB with TT. Whale calls.
Flop ($110): A63dd: Usually I am betting here, but I decided to check, partly for pot control, partly to let him bluff the Ace, which I was certain he didn't have since he limped the button (and with his aggression I know he's always raising an Ace OTB). He surprisingly checks behind.
Turn ($110): 4h: I decide to bet $55 for value and he raises me to $135, which I quickly call (I'm really not worried that I'm behind at this point).
River ($370): 4c: I check resolving to call any reasonable bet (he sometimes bombs major overbets, which will put me in a tough spot). He decides to bet $275, which seems reasonable and I think he can be betting any 6x hand with that here, as well as bluffs and some value hands such as 4x, 33, 66. I still never ever put him on an Ace, so I decide I'm winning often enough to profitably call and he shows me 8s4s

Hand 5

6-handed, $20 Straddle, OTB $55, Hero Calls SB with 56 ($1,500 effective stacks), Straddle calls.
Flop ($160) 47T: XX OTB Bets $110 and Hero raises to $275, Straddle Folds and OTB Calls.
Turn ($710) J and here is where I have some doubts about my line. I believe I should continue here for half pot or more, setting up a river shove, but I check he checks behind
River ($710) 2: I believe I have to make a strong bluff here and I go for $600, but he snaps me with K2 (he is a good player)

He told me afterwards that if I continue to bet turn and river he would fold, but when I checked the turn it was obvious I had a draw. Bad play and I need to be bolder in these spots. Agreed?

Hand 6

A few hands after Hand 5 and I've decided to not reload and just play my last $800 to try to win a big pot versus the aggressive action we're seeing from the whales.

LAG Whale Straddles $20, MP good player from Hand 5 calls, I decide to call from SB with 44, Main Whale from Hand 4 calls from BB, LAG whale decides to pop his straddle up to $100, MP calls, I decide to call knowing BB will call and we will have $400 pre-flop for my $80 call, with potentially another $700+ to be won if I can flop a set.
Flop ($400) J23: XX Straddler makes it $375, MP folds, I see that BB has lost interest and I think about this spot. It seems obvious that this bet is too large to be a value bet and must be an unmade hand, possibly a draw or just two over like AK, AQ. I decide that it is late, trust my reads and ship it in. He calls with T7
Turn ($1,800) 6
River ($1,800) 3

I'm actually really happy with the read I made and my willingness to gamble. Obviously it is a big flip where my equity is never a lock, but it's a good overlay on the odds and one I believe I should be taking irrespective of the pot value.

If I win that pot I book a nice win, so no worries about the loss. Personally I'm only concerned about Hand 5 and the fact that I missed seeing the old guys' hidden $100 in Hand 3.

Put in 4 cash sessions and 1 quick MTT since my last post:

1) 2.5 hours 2/5 NL: -$800
2) Under an hour in $50 + $15 + $50 bounty MTT
3) 6.0 hours 2/5 NL: +$600
4) 12.0 hours 2/5 NL: +$1,130
5) 8.5 hours 2/5 NL with some 5/5 NL: -$1,160

In summary we're still not crushing it and we know the reason why: too much spew. Here are a couple of butchered hands where we can definitely play better:

Hand 1

2/5 NL, $650 effective, Loose HJ opens $20, loose CO who has got very lucky running $200 up to $650 calls and Hero decides to 3-bet to $100 OTB with JTo. I've 3-bet the HJ a few times before and he usually folds. He has also called with weak hands like Q8s. In this case they both call.

Flop ($300): T76r HJ checks and CO makes a very weak looking $100 donk bet.

We haven't played much with him, he clearly is not a high-level player, and I'm thinking he probably likes to keep the $450 he still has behind. Unless he has flopped a set or a straight, therefore, I think (a little too quickly) that I can get him to fold what is probably a better, but weak Tx such as QT or KT. In hindsight I should have thought a bit more about what range he can be donk betting here, and what he can sensibly fold given my image (which is fairly strong and he should mostly believe I have the goods here).

Maybe it is still the right play, but I'm betting $550 to win $400 so I need to get folds more than half of the time (or suck out if he calls with better Tx, sets and straights, which only gives me 12% equity of $1100 = $130). I just think it is too optimistic to think I get the credit for an overpair and he is able to fold top pair here.

He really tanked and made the call with AT, telling me afterwards that he thought I had an overpair, but he decided to run his lucky streak and gamble...grrr!

Can we play this more sensibly? The answer is clearly yes. We can't just fold to his donk bet, but we can min-raise or call to re-evaluate the turn. Either one of those actions is far better than shipping. A min-raise might even win us the pot, since it probably looks stronger than shipping.

Hand 2

I've misplayed Ax hands that miss the flop a few times and need to be more disciplined. This one is borderline, but I think my flop shove is just too weak looking a lot like a draw and we achieve a better result by correctly sizing our bet to 1/2 to 2/3 pot:

We're at Don The Whale's table, which creates a lot more action than normal, since he's calling most hands pre-flop and donating on a lot of boards.

$450 effective, 2 limps, HJ makes it $35, DTW calls OTB and we decide to 3-bet to $105 from SB with AQo. The limpers fold, HJ calls, DTW folds.
Flop ($250): 764 and we open ship $350. He tank calls with AKo.

We're not always playing bad. This next hand is an example of a few things we've put together in our live game, including player-specific reads as we get to know a lot of the players at Playground.

Hand 3

5/5 NL with $1,000 effective, Villain limps UTG, OTB limps, Hero makes it $35 from SB with TT, BB folds, V and OTB call.
Flop ($105): 544 we think our hand is good and value bet $50, V calls, OTB folds.
Turn ($200): 7 and here is where it gets interesting. We know this player is generally fairly solid apart from a propensity to aggressively overplay his draws. We therefore decide to check to let him have a stab at the pot, which he does for $150. I'm not thinking I'm beat here and decide to raise for value to $300. At the time of making the raise I'm only thinking to make him pay another $150 to see the river, but he surprises me by shipping all-in for another approx. $625.

At this point we need to go deep into the tank and start eliminating hands: I don't ever put this guy on a premium pair with this line. He simply does not limp call those hands pre-flop. I also never put him on 63 or 68 since he I can't see him limp-calling those hands pre-flop. So can he have 55 or 77? The answer is no because he has no reason to ship the turn after I've check-raised. He would just flat and let me hang myself on the river. So are there any 4x combos in his range? Maybe A4s, but it seems so unlikely and doesn't really fit his line very well. After maybe 2-3 minutes in the tank I convinced myself that he has exactly 67. His previous propensity to overplay his draws was obvious with this line and I felt confident in my read.

So I made the hero call, the River bricked a Jack and MHIG (he refused to show his cards, but we could tell by his expression he was fuming at my call and he had the 67). He snap quit the table in a rage, lol!

Posting weekly updates now and especially due to last night's highly tilting cash game session, which is detailed below after the summary (all games at Playground):

9.5 hours 2/5 NL: -$640
3 MTT "power weekend" early bust-outs due to bad variance: -$770
7.0 hours 2/5 NL: +$970
12.0 hours 2/5 NL: +$3,595 (**stand-out run-good session**)
8.5 hours 2/5 NL: -$1,500 (**stand-out bad session**)

Key hands from the last session:

Early action was good and I won some nice pots to get into good profit. Nothing too notable except maybe this hand regarding bet-sizing:

Hand 1

Can we size larger here on turn and river?

EP limp active MP $25 HJ calls Hero call in CO with TT OTB SB and limper Call.
Flop $150 KQ9 checks around.
Turn $150 J check to Hero bets $100 SB calls.
River $340 6 X Bet $145 Call MHIG.

Hand 2

Is folding 2nd Nuts on the river getting 7-1 correct (I'm sure Doug Polk would say no)?

MP limp super loose OTB $30 Hero Calls SB with K6 BB and limper Call.
Flop $120 A98 XX MP $85 Fold and I have a bad feeling he has NFD based on his bet size and my knowledge of this player, but it’s hard to fold 2NFD so we call.
Turn $280 4 XX
River $280 3 Hero Bets $150, Villain ships $246 and I vomit. Even getting 7-1 I just see zero bluffs here and tank fold...?

Hand 3

This is hand I want back from the session - butchered it thoroughly / huge mistake!

$1000 effective 2 MP limps tight reg CO $35 and we decide to flat JJ from SB and first limper calls. In hindsight flat calling here is terrible. We price the limpers in and get to play OOP versus good players. I have to always 3-bet in these spots. Always!
Flop $100 642 XX CO $50, we decide to flat again, MP makes it $180, CO folds and we’re left with a major decision. His limp call caps his range to never have a better pair than JJ so we’re either facing a flopped set or a draw. He’s a good thinking player. He definitely knows to raise a suited Ah here as well as other combo draws but what percentage draws does he have versus sets? I was thinking it was close but I need to gamble my entire stack to find out (with some fold equity against some draws). We finally tank shove, he quickly calls with 22 and we lose 3 times 🙁.

In hindsight he knows we’re strong and is more likely to flat draws than raise them making his raising range more skewed towards sets. I think we have to find a Fold here. Big mistake.

I built back up from the soft spots at the table and got it up to almost breakeven for the session when this happened:

Hand 4

The poker gods like to kick a man when he's down!

$950 effective, Straddle, 2 limps, MP makes it $80 super loose SB calls, I decide to call in the BB with KJ and there's one more caller.
Flop $300 T96 checks to the raiser, he makes it $150, folds to me $350, he tank jams for $875 total. It's the same guy I folded 2nd Nuts to earlier and I’m pretty sure has AdXo and this time there’s only 3 diamonds out there not 4. So we quickly call, don’t even think about running it because we know we’re a big favourite, the board runs out Ac2d 😡 and he has AdAh.

My equity was 73% so I’m very happy about my play, but 3 times this session I made King high flushes and lost all three on river beats (the last one just a few hands after this lost me another $500 whereupon I quit the game).

It was a highly tilting session, but the one major punt with JJ cost me dear. Otherwise I'm happy with my plays, even the 7-1 odds river fold with the 2nd Nuts.

Just wanted to analyze and post this interesting multiway big pot hand from last night (which we lost), primarily because one guy, who also lost, called my play "terrible" (and he didn't even see my cards):

Background: Active 5/5 NL game with a lot of pre-flop raises / re-raises. All villains in this hand are capable of making moves and gambling stacks. V1 has around $2000 and recently showed down JTs after calling a large pre-flop squeeze and a large flop c-bet on AJxxx (checked-down after the flop). V2 has around $900 and is someone we've played with a lot, who overvalues/overplays his hands. V3 has been unlucky in the last couple of hands, is desperately shortstacked ($90) and is ready to gamble. Hero has $630, is nearing the end of a frustrating session and is ready to gamble for stacks.

Action: V1 opens UTG for $25, 1 EP caller, Hero decides to over-call in HJ with TT, V2 in CO 3-bets to $110, V3 in BB ships-in his $90, V1 tank calls and it folds to Hero.

We're thinking there's already over $300 in the pot, V1 can be making a move here with many hands that we beat, V2 can have JT+ and V3 has a pretty wide-range. Do we have the right equity to shove?

At the time I thought it was probably pretty close, not a lock either way, and I decided to do it because I was ready to gamble to win a big pot or quit. Losing my remaining $605 would not hurt me anymore than the day already had, whereas winning a big pot would make me feel so much better.

So we gambled and shipped it in. V1 was clearly frustrated with my shove, indicating he wasn't super-strong, but he has a tendency to lose his fold button (I've seen him stack-off when clearly beat more than once). He finally tank called. V2 was similarly hesitant, but finally decided to ship it in, knowing that V1 would call-off his remaining $300 or so.

Results: 652AK and V2 scooped with AK, V3 had J9o, V1 and Hero mucked without showing but V2 was on tilt and called-out my play. Was it so terrible?

I constructed an equity model based on the following ranges:

V3 Range = J9+
V2 Range = 22+, JTs+, KQ, A2s+, AQo+, calls my shove 40% of the time with 88+, AQ+, and calls both shoves 25% with TT+, AK
V1 Range = A8+, KQ, 88+ and calls my shove 40% with TT+, AQ+

Based on this model, the actual scenario (where all Villains call) only happens 10% of the time.

Our equity for betting $605 is $540 so slightly negative (-$65), but not terrible given our desire to gamble or quit, I think.

Views?

I haven't posted in a while and of course this is because I've been on a downswing, mostly from MTTs, whereas cash has been pretty flat to negative, but also very frustrating.

I was so looking forward to play the Party Poker Millions North America at my local poker room, Playground, that I lost sight of MTT variance being such a *****. Even though I shipped three "1 in 10" satellites from 10 entries (2 x $5300 from 8 entries; 1 x $1100 from 2 entries), I totally blanked all the events I played (3 x $1100 Opening Event; 2 x $5300 Main Event; 3 x $1100 Turbo).

The Main Event was the worst, especially my second attempt, where I suffered the grimmest few hours of my live MTT existence, exemplified by this spot (on which I'd be happy to hear of any alternate lines, including simply folding to the 4-bet or just flat calling the initial raise):

Blinds 5k/10k with 10k Button Ante
My Stack 1M (first playable hand in the tourney after around 15 mins); Villain 1.2M (local decent competent player)

Villain opens UTG to 25k, UTG+1 calls, MP calls, Hero looks down at AKo in the LJ and decides we need to raise, so we casually make it 125k, folds to BB, a very loose local recreational player who likes to gamble, and he flats my 3-bet, then UTG dwells for a while and puts in the 4-bet to 285k, folds back to me.

I feel like this is such a ****ty spot, but maybe I can jam since UTG is capable of moves and he knows BB is light and maybe he thinks I'm a bit light too. There's too little information to get an informed opinion so I rule that out. Then I think can I just fold here? Maybe I should? It's so early, he can easily have us crushed and we've 875k left to play with if we do so. No Problem?

Then I think what an amazing price I'm getting: only 160k to call with 595k already in the middle and almost certainly another 160k from the BB if I call. Getting almost 5-to-1 to call to see a flop with an Ace and a King seems like a good idea, no? If I whiff I'll still have 715k left to play with.

So I make the call, BB calls as expected, and we flop horribly: 776 BB checks, Villain cuts out 425k and of course we just fold.

After that I simply couldn't win a pot: my opens got 3-bet, including another AK spot UTG where UTG+1 puts in the 3-bet, yuck! We dwindled down to 15 BBs at 7k/14k/14k and ran AJ into AK.

It was miserable! I was miserable.

I tried to fight back with the $1100 Turbo Event to no avail with 3 bullets and this put a huge dent in my B/R and my confidence.

Then I hit a cash game and managed to drunkenly donk-off $1250 with heroic but stupid play.

This put me down over $15k for the year. I decided to take 6 days off from poker, rethink and reset.

Yesterday I was back with a new positive mindset, including the following rules:

1) Don't drink while playing (to be enforced for the rest of May, at least)
2) Don't tilt while playing
3) Figure out the good and bad spots at the table
4) Avoid playing marginal spots against the good players
5) Don't make tourney-style multi-street bluffs for stacks in cash games
6) Discipline on every decision.

For the most part, over a ten-hour session, we followed the above. We might have strayed a few times with 4 and 6, but not to a large degree.

We ran bad and lost $1400 at 2/5 NL, but I'm not upset about it, since we followed our plan and couldn't really have avoided three of these four spots that formed the bulk of our day's major swings:

Hand 1

Competent tight local reg makes it $20 UTG, Hero raises to $65 OTB with AA and UTG calls.
Flop $130 QcTc2h X Hero Bets $85 Villain Calls.
Turn $300 Jd, Villain snap shoves for $340 and we reluctantly fold.

Hand 2 (the one I could have folded on the river)

Hero limps As8s UTG, 3 more limpers and rec with bet sizing issues makes it $25 in the BB, which we all obviously call.
Flop $120 AcAd9c BB leads for only $35, so we flat and everyone else folds
Turn $190 Jh BB now checks, which we find very odd, but we decide to check behind to catch bluffs OTR.
River $190 7d and Villain bets $175, which seems very polarizing, but we should have realized this particular villain probably doesn't know that concept and therefore his bet size is weighted heavily towards strength not bluffs. I think we can easily fold here, but we made a mistake and called to be shown AhKh.

Hand 3

UTG (somewhat bad rec) opens for $25, 2 callers, Hero decides to call 9c7c in the BB.
Flop $100 9h7h5s Hero pauses for a while, gets a sense of UTG's demeanour, since he's sitting right next to me, and correctly deduces he's got a strong pair and he's going to bet, so we check, UTG bets $80 with $300 behind, loose gambler in MP calls with $470 effective, and Hero decides we need to simply ship here to protect our equity against MP's obvious draw. UTG snap calls, MP tanks calls and we're looking at around $1200 in the main pot with what we feel is great equity (side pot is an additional $180).
Turn 5d feels pretty safe...
River Ac, we show our two pair, UTG turns over his obvious AA and MP mucks...grrr (but we didn't tilt).

Hand 4

Straddle from hyper loose whale, Hero limps UTG with Kh6h, two more limps, aggressive HJ makes it $110, whale calls and we feel like we're getting a good price so we call (maybe a bit loose, but we're aiming for a big pot here versus the whale, who covers our $700 stack, HJ has $380).
Flop $350 4h5h8d XX HJ ships $270, whale folds and we call off with great equity. Runs out two blanks and we lose to TT (we had 55% equity).

Otherwise no bad spots and couldn't get value when we had hands.

As such, I'm happy with how I played and kept my discipline, even when I ran so bad. Last hand of the night I managed to find a check on the turn, fold on the river, where any level of tilt would have lost me another $160:

Hand 5

Hero opens CO with Kc5c for $20, SB and BB call.
Flop $60 Kh9c2s XX Hero bets $35 with $160 behind, both call
Turn $160 7c XX and Hero thinks about simply jamming here, but we feel that SB, a very good thinking player, currently has me beat with at least a better kicker and will almost certainly call, whereas BB looks very uncertain and is somewhat weak. We decide to take the free card to try to hit our flush rather than semi-bluff and see a Black Queen OTR but unfortunately it is Spades not Clubs. SB checks, BB bets $120, we find a disciplined fold, SB calls with K9 and looses to BB's JsTs.

Let's try again today...

Really hoping for some opinions on a tough 5/5 NL session yesterday:

Hand 1 ($850 effective stacks)

UTG limp, loose high stakes reg UTG+1 $30, LJ Calls, Hero Calls 22 in HJ, CO calls, limper calls.
Flop $150 245, checks to Hero $85, CO calls others fold.
Turn $320 K Hero checks and CO bets $170. It looks a lot like he made his flush, but we’re getting around 3-to-1 direct odds and can potentially win another $300-$500 OTR with 10 outs so we elect to call.
River $660 5 hero sizes $375 (leaving ~$175 behind) but villain tank folds.

Did we make a bet sizing mistake OTR? Should we either bet less for value (e.g. $250-$300) or simply ship it in? Is sizing this amount a huge tell that I'm strong because villain said he folded a flush?

Hand 2

HS reg MP $25, Hero calls HJ with K9, CO calls.
Flop $80 AK2 XXX.
Turn $80 9 X, Hero bets $55, CO calls and HS reg makes it $260 with $600 behind. We tank and villain gets angry that we're taking too long. We decide to fold, CO calls.
River 8 XX and Villain wins with A9

It was a big decision that I think was the correct one, since even though he's a HS bully and this small game means nothing to him, he still plays his best and seemed very strong with his turn play...

Hand 3

HS reg has left and been replaced by Hyper-LAG guy that everyone knows gives a lot of action. He has been opening a lot of pots, getting 3-bet a lot by the local pro to my right, but in this hand the pro is sitting out, so he's on my direct right. He opens $20 OTB, Hero decides to 3-Bet to $80 from SB with KJ, villain complains he's always being 3-bet, but makes the call.
Flop $160 K93 Hero bets $100 and villain makes a very quick call (usually he tanks).
Turn $350 3 XX.
River $350 7 Hero decides to bet $175 for value, villain tanks long and hard, looking over at me several times somewhat suspiciously, then ships $582. Given his rep and how nervous he looked, we decide he’s bluffing often enough to call and get shown A6

It was $407 to win $1107 so we only need to be right 27% if the time, but should we have picked-up on the tells (quick flop call, reverse tells OTR)?

Can we realistically ever fold here given his reputation (we've seen him bluff similar spots before and after this pot)?

Hand 4

UTG is a good reg player who has been running very bad versus the hyper-LAG villain.

UTG opens for $25, LAG 3-Bets to $85 in MP, Hero has JJ in the CO and we think about a 4-Bet, but even though these two have been at each other fairly light we feel that JJ is not quite strong enough to go to war here. Are we being too weak here and should we put in the 4-bet?

We’re $1000 deep so instead we decide to call in position, loose BB calls, UTG makes it $385 and LAG ships for $1000 effective. Again we know these two can be light given their history but we decide to fold, UTG calls and they run it twice: AQ versus TT; we see that we would have been ahead, but LAG villain makes a boat and a set respectively (phew).

Hand 5

MP Aggro makes it $20, Hyper-LAG calls CO, hero calls 88 in SB and BB calls.
Flop $80 Q48 XX MP $50, Call, we decide calling is safe against these two aggro players because only gutshots can realistically beat us and BB calls.
Turn $280 7 and we think someone will bet so we check, but it checks around.
River $280 K seems safe enough to bet as we’re only losing to random 56 so we confidently bet $175 for value. BB tanks, asks to spread the pot, plays with his chips and puts in a raise to $550 and it folds back to us.

As played BB never has KK or QQ so we think we’re up against 56, 44, maybe 77, maybe KQ and some rare bluffs. It seems like the number of 56 combos he has are not enough to find a Fold here but can we ever find a Fold here or should we X/R the flop? Note this is same villain as Hand 1.

These were my 2018 goals at the start of the year. Although I stopped updating the thread back in May, here is my summary versus my goals:

1) I tracked all my results and expenses in a spreadsheet - see results below.

2) I focused on cash games from Jan-May 2018, but after being in Vegas for a couple of weeks, I found that I really wanted to focus on MTTs for my time there (after making a really bad, really expensive 5/10 cash game river call and winning $45k in an MTT the next day!). My cash game results never achieved the consistency I was expecting and became less and less important as the year progressed.

3) I was selective about not playing low value MTTs for the first half of the year, but after Vegas I played more MTTs than cash games, including playing a lot of low buy-in MTTs at Playground (which turned-out to be reasonably profitable: $7,605 profit, 58% ROI, $25/hr).

4) I posted regularly until May, but having gained no traction with interest in the thread I gave up!

5) First 5 months until Vegas I played 484 hours of NLHE cash games and only 250 hours of MTTs, but after switching my focus to MTTs, this finished as only 672.5 hours of NLHE cash games for the year. NLHE cash game profits were far lower than expected, only $4,769 ($7.09/hr), almost all of this coming in Las Vegas and Aruba with a small loss at Playground cash games).

6) I played far more MTTs than I planned with the following results:

Buy-Ins: $174,686
Cashes: $188,650
Profit: $13,964
ROI: 8%
Hours: 1066.0
Hourly: $13.10
MTT Entries: 240
MTT Cashes: 47
ITM: 20%
ABI: $728

Profits came from a successful Las Vegas summer series offset by losses at Playground. Although I won good profits at < $500 buy-in MTTs at PG, I ran very bad in all of the festivals and ran-up large losses in all high buy-in MTTs there (Party Poker Millions, WPT, etc.).

Total yearly results were:

Profit: $16,576
Hours: 1741.0
Hourly: $9.52

[IMG][/IMG]

Note that the totals from NL Cash + MTTs don't exactly add-up because I lost a little in a few sessions of PLO.

Reflections on the Year

It was disappointing to find that cash games were higher variance than I expected. I'm sure I've still a lot to learn to get better at them, but I'm not sure I've got the patience/discipline to really grind-out cash games.

It was surprising to see that I made a very small loss in my local cash games. There really are quite a lot of fish in these games and I should be making a profit. I think it's a combo of a few drunken sessions, some bad play and probably some variance over only ~500 hours of play.

For MTTs I'm actually very happy with my results, although not with my profits! That may sound contradictory, but I cashed 20% of my entries, improved my MTT game through study (RYE Tournament Masterclass) and if not for some negative variance in high-value spots I easily could have had a good year (losing a $28k flip for 1st place at The Wynn; bad-beated on Day 4 of the WSOP Main Event just as the payout jumps were getting meaningful; losing AA to AK for a massive CL with 2 tables left in another Wynn daily; and just running so poorly in $500+ events at PG/CPP).

As such, my plans for 2019 are to focus on MTTs and just hope to run better