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Old 11-08-2019, 12:45 AM   #251
tgiggity
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by GarbageReg View Post
I have been seeing Postle poker on zone for a long time and got laughed at when I previously suggested it. Lines that make no sense yet totally own you when they shouldn't. I think the blatant cheating of Postle in live games right in the open might have finally opened the eyes of the naive sheep about what could be happening behind closed doors where it would be far easier and undetectable to get away with it.
shut up mirage
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Old 11-08-2019, 01:02 AM   #252
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by Kockar View Post
Can you eloborate on this? How do you know this for fact?
There is cheating on every site. It'd be naive to think otherwise. Doesn't mean there isn't still money to be made. It just cuts into winrates of people who are not cheating.
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Old 11-08-2019, 01:10 AM   #253
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

If someone is cheating on a site where you can see hole cards a day later, the cheated hands themselves should be subtle enough that no definitive conclusion that you were cheated at all could be made.

That said, postle and everyone else who has been caught cheating in the history of poker tend to be more conspicuous...

Anyway I'm above EV this month.
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Old 11-08-2019, 01:33 AM   #254
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
If someone is cheating on a site where you can see hole cards a day later, the cheated hands themselves should be subtle enough that no definitive conclusion that you were cheated at all could be made.

That said, postle and everyone else who has been caught cheating in the history of poker tend to be more conspicuous...

Anyway I'm above EV this month.
spread it around bud
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Old 11-08-2019, 11:54 AM   #255
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

People’s familiarity with technology and the rise in cheating is not a coincidence. Some of the biggest online winners by stake were bots or surrounded in controversy (superuser suspicions, dream machine rumors etc). Everyone googles, poker is no different. Sharing hole cards to “reduce variance” LOL is not far fetched either. No laws, no possibility of prosecution and lax poker security is just asking for it. It’s proven that some big winners have been using a crude version of “live” solvers for years. There’s no way the sites can stay ahead of it
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Old 11-08-2019, 02:24 PM   #256
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Hello everyone, i decided to come forward about this subject. I have been suspecting something for a couple of months as well. But due to the fact that I've won much in the past on this site I havent really done anything besides constantly monitoring hands for collusion. I'm going to post a bunch of results to strengthen my opionins, if it was just me that suspected this the results wouldn't really say anything. Given circuimstances I find my results super relevant because it seems like a majority (?) of the regs suspect something fishy is going on.

If TLDR what I'm going to talk about below, just look at the graphs. Former massive winner, now turned break even in short time span. Also want to add I'm still doing very well on any other site this year which isn't bodog/bovada.


"What types of suspicious activity:
- Collusion
- Multi Accounting
- Superusing
- Botting
- Real time Solver
- Other"

a) Collusion.. I dont think collusion is a massive problem, IIRC Bovada banned people in the past for collusion. The pools are relatively small and it would be very obvious. I've also been monitoring my hands for roughly 10 months and I rarely find anything suspicious. When you are looking for these things you will find more suspicious things just because you are biased. It's super rare that you get sandwiched in multiway pots by players which would be the typical collusion pattern. Also I think colluding is super hard to do properly when everyone has access to your hands. I do think it's going on but I dont think its the reason why people are not winning. There was always collusion on there to some extent, that's the price you pay for having anonymous tables. I also think variance would be way bigger.

b) Multiaccounting.. Fairly reasonable but still, think their security team would suspect or see something if this was the case. And it is essentially the same as colluding so it would be obvious to spot if people never played big hands vs each other.

c) Superusing.. I do think this is one of the most logical explanations. I'm not sure if I believe it's a inside job or if its a virus that is going around. Both are equally likely, in defense of it not being a virus I whiped my computer multiple times so I dont think its super likely. Open for suggestions what anti-virus to use or how to find out about this. I do use esea nod32 and it never found anything. One argument for this as well is that I see regs playing completely absurd hands preflop. Their stats look reasonable and their betsizes as well, but they somehow end up flatting opens with K9o on the button or whatever.

d) Botting.. sure, fairly reasonable. But there is hours where the action is super quiet and it's rare for a bot to crush highstakes. Most situations where this was the case there was a hybrid between a human/bot like OBORRA. Also a bot would make so big mistakes vs recs so I dont think a bot would be super succesful at 1k-2k. Variance would also be way bigger because you would end up exploiting the bot fairly often where he is playing a balanced strategy and you are not and vice versa.

e) Real time solver.. I know this is going on at multiple american sites due to low security. But tbh this is the site where I see the least ammount of super strong theoretical plays. On litterally any other site your average opponent use WAY MORE sophisticated sizings. A real time solver is less effective in a anon pool due that you constantly need to adjust for fish/weaker regs/nit regs/spewy regs. If this was the case I think we would see way more sophisticated sizings. A good example of this is on the chico network (Betonline/tigergaming). On this site you will see random 1k regs using sizings that are extremely correct. Sizings that top regs like Linus, OtB etc never used.

f) Other.. I do think its not out of the question that they have something in their system which makes it impossible for you to win. They lower your winrate in some way. This would be impossible to prove on a anonymous site. I rarely cooler people, and I rarely get aces preflop and gii. For a very large sample I was losing in AI PF with every hand besides AA (1.5k situations). This is a sort off fishy accusation. But there are a lot of extremely volatile fish and given my reason sample where it seems impossible to go on any kind of heater i'm def not ruling it out.

Also one might argue that the games got tougher, yes this is true they for sure got tougher. When thailand got access to play on there a lot of russian regs or sure showed up most likely due to the fact that the majority of russian high-stakes regs live in asia.

One other argument that I dont think its collusion is that I get absolutely smacked at HU. It's just possible there never was any good hu regs around and some beast started playing on there/someone got drastically better. But I feel like I very often have a opponent that play like he is seeing my cards. HU is usually way more variance, you win some you lose some. But it seems impossible for me to ever cooler the other person meanwhile they make perfect bluffcatches when I ship like 5 times pot in spots where population never bluffs.

I also find it suspicious that a lot of the times I get raped HU there is no one even open sitting at $5/10+ on acr for example. If there truly was some boss reg I'm sure he would be playing other sites. I want to add that I however am pretty sure that I play some normal regulars who beat me as well. I also do think 25k hands of HU is a pretty decent sample. It says more than people think, in ring games that's litterally nothing however.

It's interesting to me that people got doomswitched at different times, which sort off strengths my accusation of them not letting you win more than a certain ammount. Since I most likely was one of the biggest winners(?), I got hit earlier than others. For me this has been going on for the entire year. Either way I'm not sure this happend many times in history at all that one of the biggest winners on a site turned into one of the worst winrate regs. My table selection this year is even tighter on this site due to the lack of results.


Last years results:
https://i.gyazo.com/cf15d1a0536368f7...be5e6ae47f.png

Last years results HU:
https://i.gyazo.com/3fc8b6ebc84b6285...4c9d101650.png

Last years 3handed:
https://i.gyazo.com/fd8568f5ab630089...942ed536e6.png

This years results:
https://i.gyazo.com/24e802b291236d5b...0ecaa46a7b.png

This years results HU:
https://i.gyazo.com/8d33b260df65f06e...71bf86bb86.png

This years results 3handed:
https://i.gyazo.com/e7fbfaba55165dff...0ab389b64f.png

This years results in BBs:
https://i.gyazo.com/94fcfa0c0a130483...62a642779a.png

This years results playing HU+3handed on non bodog sites:
https://i.gyazo.com/979ff7905e260e7b...f4fdfee633.png

Surely if I played vs colluders or incredibly strong regs the variance would be way bigger in my BB graph. The fish on bodog is among the worst I've ever seen so it makes sense to win/lose big ammounts in short time spans. However this doesn't seem to be the case for me. I would never made this post if it wasn't for the fact that so many of you came out at the same time. I do understand that variance is a big part of poker, but if I'm making half a mill less in these games than last year, surely one of you must be crushing big time. Games still look soft to me when I'm comparing the level of play vs other sites. This have been bugging me for the entire year. I'm debating quitting the site despite making absurd ammounts untill this year. Seems like litterally any other site or any other game is higher ev for me at this point.

I did post some of this to Nick Howard as well, I'm curious how people want to move forward with this.
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Old 11-08-2019, 04:01 PM   #257
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Can we get a stake breakdown there for last yr/this yr badreg?
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Old 11-08-2019, 04:29 PM   #258
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Badreg - are you Ohheycindy? I can’t PM you, feel free to PM me when you can. Obv you don’t have to answer that if you don’t want

My $.02 in regards to all of this -

- All I know is that I was beating 500 and 1k for 10bb/100 over ~150k hands until May. Since then I’ve ran ~130 bi’s below Ev and between 70-90k under ev. Must be said that this obviously could be a bad stretch of variance.

- What throws me off, though, is that I’m winning on a harder site right now, yet can’t win on ignition.

- I have heard something along the lines of the site not being regulated by a gaming commission; could this mean that something could be “off” with the site, or it could be easily hacked? Collusion/hacking seems the most likely culprit IF something is amiss...that or, like badreg said, something could be up with the site. To me though, it seems like it would be ridiculously hard for a site to rig runouts in favor of specific players, not to mention the potential risk for the company.

At this point I am not getting out the tinfoil hat, but I’ve had a good number of winning regs contact me with concerns. Can any big winners at 500+ come in here and tell us we are all wrong? It would be comforting to know that the games are tougher than they used to be, but for some reason I just suspect that isn’t the case (at least not a legitimate reason).

Thanks for everyone who has come in and offered info/feedback

Last edited by Oladipo; 11-08-2019 at 04:49 PM.
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Old 11-08-2019, 05:12 PM   #259
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2019 View Post
how to flood a site with new regs
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:23 PM   #260
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

This is Nick Howard. If you are confirmed winner on the Bovada network, please reach out to me through PM for my skype details. My team is investigating the activity and I've created a group to keep all affected players informed. We're in the process of compiling an alias of the winners who have reached out so far, at which point we'll be sending evidence to Bovada as a courtesy to allow them the opportunity to go public before we do.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:33 PM   #261
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Hi Nick. You mention that you're creating an alias. Does this mean you're expecting us to all send you our hands?
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:34 PM   #262
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2019 View Post
Hello everyone, i decided to come forward about this subject. I have been suspecting something for a couple of months as well. But due to the fact that I've won much in the past on this site I havent really done anything besides constantly monitoring hands for collusion. I'm going to post a bunch of results to strengthen my opionins, if it was just me that suspected this the results wouldn't really say anything. Given circuimstances I find my results super relevant because it seems like a majority (?) of the regs suspect something fishy is going on.

If TLDR what I'm going to talk about below, just look at the graphs. Former massive winner, now turned break even in short time span. Also want to add I'm still doing very well on any other site this year which isn't bodog/bovada.


"What types of suspicious activity:
- Collusion
- Multi Accounting
- Superusing
- Botting
- Real time Solver
- Other"

a) Collusion.. I dont think collusion is a massive problem, IIRC Bovada banned people in the past for collusion. The pools are relatively small and it would be very obvious. I've also been monitoring my hands for roughly 10 months and I rarely find anything suspicious. When you are looking for these things you will find more suspicious things just because you are biased. It's super rare that you get sandwiched in multiway pots by players which would be the typical collusion pattern. Also I think colluding is super hard to do properly when everyone has access to your hands. I do think it's going on but I dont think its the reason why people are not winning. There was always collusion on there to some extent, that's the price you pay for having anonymous tables. I also think variance would be way bigger.

b) Multiaccounting.. Fairly reasonable but still, think their security team would suspect or see something if this was the case. And it is essentially the same as colluding so it would be obvious to spot if people never played big hands vs each other.

c) Superusing.. I do think this is one of the most logical explanations. I'm not sure if I believe it's a inside job or if its a virus that is going around. Both are equally likely, in defense of it not being a virus I whiped my computer multiple times so I dont think its super likely. Open for suggestions what anti-virus to use or how to find out about this. I do use esea nod32 and it never found anything. One argument for this as well is that I see regs playing completely absurd hands preflop. Their stats look reasonable and their betsizes as well, but they somehow end up flatting opens with K9o on the button or whatever.

d) Botting.. sure, fairly reasonable. But there is hours where the action is super quiet and it's rare for a bot to crush highstakes. Most situations where this was the case there was a hybrid between a human/bot like OBORRA. Also a bot would make so big mistakes vs recs so I dont think a bot would be super succesful at 1k-2k. Variance would also be way bigger because you would end up exploiting the bot fairly often where he is playing a balanced strategy and you are not and vice versa.

e) Real time solver.. I know this is going on at multiple american sites due to low security. But tbh this is the site where I see the least ammount of super strong theoretical plays. On litterally any other site your average opponent use WAY MORE sophisticated sizings. A real time solver is less effective in a anon pool due that you constantly need to adjust for fish/weaker regs/nit regs/spewy regs. If this was the case I think we would see way more sophisticated sizings. A good example of this is on the chico network (Betonline/tigergaming). On this site you will see random 1k regs using sizings that are extremely correct. Sizings that top regs like Linus, OtB etc never used.

f) Other.. I do think its not out of the question that they have something in their system which makes it impossible for you to win. They lower your winrate in some way. This would be impossible to prove on a anonymous site. I rarely cooler people, and I rarely get aces preflop and gii. For a very large sample I was losing in AI PF with every hand besides AA (1.5k situations). This is a sort off fishy accusation. But there are a lot of extremely volatile fish and given my reason sample where it seems impossible to go on any kind of heater i'm def not ruling it out.

Also one might argue that the games got tougher, yes this is true they for sure got tougher. When thailand got access to play on there a lot of russian regs or sure showed up most likely due to the fact that the majority of russian high-stakes regs live in asia.

One other argument that I dont think its collusion is that I get absolutely smacked at HU. It's just possible there never was any good hu regs around and some beast started playing on there/someone got drastically better. But I feel like I very often have a opponent that play like he is seeing my cards. HU is usually way more variance, you win some you lose some. But it seems impossible for me to ever cooler the other person meanwhile they make perfect bluffcatches when I ship like 5 times pot in spots where population never bluffs.

I also find it suspicious that a lot of the times I get raped HU there is no one even open sitting at $5/10+ on acr for example. If there truly was some boss reg I'm sure he would be playing other sites. I want to add that I however am pretty sure that I play some normal regulars who beat me as well. I also do think 25k hands of HU is a pretty decent sample. It says more than people think, in ring games that's litterally nothing however.

It's interesting to me that people got doomswitched at different times, which sort off strengths my accusation of them not letting you win more than a certain ammount. Since I most likely was one of the biggest winners(?), I got hit earlier than others. For me this has been going on for the entire year. Either way I'm not sure this happend many times in history at all that one of the biggest winners on a site turned into one of the worst winrate regs. My table selection this year is even tighter on this site due to the lack of results.


Last years results:
https://i.gyazo.com/cf15d1a0536368f7...be5e6ae47f.png

Last years results HU:
https://i.gyazo.com/3fc8b6ebc84b6285...4c9d101650.png

Last years 3handed:
https://i.gyazo.com/fd8568f5ab630089...942ed536e6.png

This years results:
https://i.gyazo.com/24e802b291236d5b...0ecaa46a7b.png

This years results HU:
https://i.gyazo.com/8d33b260df65f06e...71bf86bb86.png

This years results 3handed:
https://i.gyazo.com/e7fbfaba55165dff...0ab389b64f.png

This years results in BBs:
https://i.gyazo.com/94fcfa0c0a130483...62a642779a.png

This years results playing HU+3handed on non bodog sites:
https://i.gyazo.com/979ff7905e260e7b...f4fdfee633.png

Surely if I played vs colluders or incredibly strong regs the variance would be way bigger in my BB graph. The fish on bodog is among the worst I've ever seen so it makes sense to win/lose big ammounts in short time spans. However this doesn't seem to be the case for me. I would never made this post if it wasn't for the fact that so many of you came out at the same time. I do understand that variance is a big part of poker, but if I'm making half a mill less in these games than last year, surely one of you must be crushing big time. Games still look soft to me when I'm comparing the level of play vs other sites. This have been bugging me for the entire year. I'm debating quitting the site despite making absurd ammounts untill this year. Seems like litterally any other site or any other game is higher ev for me at this point.

I did post some of this to Nick Howard as well, I'm curious how people want to move forward with this.
This is OhHeyCindy. I've been winning this year at 10/20, though not quite as much volume as you. Had the worst downswing ive ever had on bovada (40 BI) in the summer, plus a relatively huge 37k hand breakeven stretch late september into october followed by huge upswing. Though most of my friends are losing (seems mostly 5/10 and below though).

Also I'd strongly encourage you to change those graphs to bb instead of dollars.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:49 PM   #263
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by isunkurbttlship View Post
Hi Nick. You mention that you're creating an alias. Does this mean you're expecting us to all send you our hands?
Full 2019 graphs are helpful also.
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:16 PM   #264
PopAShush
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Nick you can't be PMed yet.
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:15 PM   #265
Grothendieck
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Have the people who have seen their results decline over the past year at the reg tables also seen their results decline at the zone tables (if you play both)? If that is the case then it may be more indicative of VPNing regs making the games tougher rather than collusion.
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Old 11-08-2019, 11:42 PM   #266
Ihooper88
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

My win rate this year at 500 zone is double my win rate at 500nl reg tables over 500k hands, not a very big sample but its something I was thinking about before I heard about this. Especially as you would think winrates should be smaller on zone tables.
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Old 11-09-2019, 11:17 AM   #267
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Nick, with all due respect, I think it would be unwise for players to send you their hand histories based on your history of data collection/using it to exploit player pools etc.

Regarding results, my winrate in 2019 is a bit less than it was in 2018, but $/hand is very similar due to more 2k this year. With the end of last yr and start of this yr, there is a 200k hand breakeven stretch as well.
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Old 11-09-2019, 11:56 AM   #268
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by isunkurbttlship View Post
Nick, with all due respect, I think it would be unwise for players to send you their hand histories based on your history of data collection/using it to exploit player pools etc.

Regarding results, my winrate in 2019 is a bit less than it was in 2018, but $/hand is very similar due to more 2k this year. With the end of last yr and start of this yr, there is a 200k hand breakeven stretch as well.
+1, also ppl should ask themself if this is really nick howards account. If so, it would be very bold to request HH´s from guys sharing the same player pool like nick´s students.
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Old 11-09-2019, 12:12 PM   #269
Maxeth
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Anyone with an internet connection and a credit card has access to virtually unlimited processing power and storage. It’s dirt cheap and insanely easy to set up. In other words a person can run as many instances of pio on as many dedicated servers as they want and then store the data for future use for lightning fast lookups (ie real time solver). Bodog gives all hole cards for all opponents with complete hand histories, in a tiny player pool. You can begin to see how valuable this information is when combined with IT. It’s more likely someone upped their bot game than the site itself is in on it.
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Old 11-09-2019, 01:01 PM   #270
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kockar View Post
+1, also ppl should ask themself if this is really nick howards account. If so, it would be very bold to request HH´s from guys sharing the same player pool like nick´s students.


You guys clearly don't know how database analysis works.
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Old 11-09-2019, 02:05 PM   #271
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kockar View Post
+1, also ppl should ask themself if this is really nick howards account. If so, it would be very bold to request HH´s from guys sharing the same player pool like nick´s students.

Do you think you'd make that post if you had skin in the game?

For anyone trying to PM me, I'm waiting for support to give me privileges on a new account. Alternatively you can contact me at RunItOnce:
https://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/suspi...ovadaignition/

Last edited by nzsg; 11-09-2019 at 02:10 PM.
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Old 11-10-2019, 09:49 AM   #272
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Pre April 2019 at exclusively 10/20, i won at 6bb/100 over 300k number of hands. Even all in EV.

April until August -$43k over 63k hands $44k behind all in EV.

Very small sample size compared to what badreg2019 posted. But losing $1/hand in all in EV was a hard to swallow rate.

re: cheating, if i got superusered it was done by someone very intelligent. i never felt like i was getting called outrageously light too often. the times that happened they felt like GTO calls.

i did feel like people were timing their barrels against me much better and i often had the bottom of my range. but that would of course happen in a run bad sample too.

if somebody was going to intelligently super user then higher frequency barrels rather than higher frequency light calls would take much longer to notice and prove.

the player pool undoubtedly got better in that period though. at least 1 reg started really crushing the perfect sizing for unusual spots much more than in the past.

Nick i PMed you as Gambler on runitonce.

Last edited by Jay.; 11-10-2019 at 09:55 AM.
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Old 11-10-2019, 10:41 AM   #273
GarbageReg
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

21bi under ev is no big deal. You sun ran and now variance is finally knocking at the door. Seems that every reg whos running bad is now paranoid. Sun runners seem to forget You will eventually give a chunk back. I'm more worried about postle hands I keep seeing though.
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Old 11-10-2019, 11:40 AM   #274
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by skuzlad View Post
I see absurd bluffs and lines when relevant blockers are folded.
I guess i read this wrong the first time that i read it. I read it as "i see absurd bluffs from a player who later on in other hands doesn't even bluff with great blockers." aka a super user who is bluffing off no blockers in the perfect moment but not bluffing great blocks in the wrong moment.

But i guess you mean you see absurd bluffs when someone else in the hand folded a blocker to a value hand.

So a few players at the table are colluding by sharing their folded hands and say when one of them folded Ax and the board is Axx the chance of a bluffing working just increased dramatically.

... i've never really realised how much more powerful GTO + knowing some dead cards is until now. Very profitable and very hard to detect form of collusion.
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Old 11-10-2019, 11:42 AM   #275
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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21bi under ev is no big deal. You sun ran and now variance is finally knocking at the door.
yea, for sure. i'm adding my sample to the existing sample.
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