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Old 10-18-2019, 09:15 PM   #226
Oladipo
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by isunkurbttlship View Post
Yikes, nasty run man. Really impressive on the volume front. Keep it up, with that dedication it'll turn around!
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
damn, that volume is motivating af. seriously hope you start to run better
Thanks guys, appreciate the well wishes

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Originally Posted by JosephRellort View Post
I’m struggling with alcohol dependence and was formerly a successful professional in the medical field. I’ve turned to poker too, but have not had much success so far. Your thread is an inspiration. Thank you for sharing.
Sorry to hear man. Shoot me a PM if you want

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Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
Yuck, that is def one of those nasty stretches of variance one hopes to not find themselves in although we all eventually do. I assume you are playing a lot of zone? That's pretty sick volume, do you believe you can actually sustain that month after month? Hope you start running better soon!
Thanks bud, appreciated.

I play on 2 sites simultaneously, no zoom. Volume is sustainable, I am a worker bee by nature and as long as I get my daily dose of physicality I don’t mind workout long hours indefinitely.

It’s been my experience that an unfortunate majority of poker players are p*ssies in every sense of the word and don’t know how to work hard. With some hard work we can change the course of our lives & set ourselves up for life in a relatively short period of time, yet almost every poker player can’t manage that because of sheer laziness. I’m not going to waste the opportunity, I’ll put in however many hours it takes.

Edit: had my first session running normal in a few days just after posting in here, maybe my whining helped
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Old 10-19-2019, 01:20 AM   #227
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Are u sure ur not playing vs super users or colluders?
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Old 10-19-2019, 04:37 AM   #228
barney big nuts
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

12 year pro


idk why anyone would quit a steady good paying job for this ****.



Just my opinion
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Old 10-19-2019, 12:32 PM   #229
IntheNow
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Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Whatís up man. Youíre work ethic and mindset are super impressive. Especially your attitude and discipline to keep doing the right things away from the table. But I do think you should switch up your strategy wrt playing.

Life, and especially poker isnít all about hard work. What you do and how you do it are much more important than hard work grinding for success long term. Smart work is actually often ďharderĒ work mentally bc it requires intelligent strategy, calibration, and often fighting your instincts/nature.

There is zero chance youíre playing with a high win rate on hour 10 of the day grinding Chico games. You need to be playing with a high win rate to not be at the mercy of variance. Play in better environments for less hours. Itís not only smarter long term, but short term as well. Thereís a balance to this all obv.

But I donít know anyone that would recommend playing as many hours as you are online. Itís not about being a pussy wrt hard work. Itís about being smart. Thatís what makes poker so hard, just putting in the hours regardless doesnít work. For you, thatís easy. I think you need to fight your nature and do the hard work of backing off a bit.

This might be assumptive to ponder, but oh well, maybe it will resonate and help....do you think deep down your compulsion to put in this many hours comes from a core belief/fear that you arenít good enough to have a high win rate to beat out variance? Or a fear that you wonít make it as a pro at all?

I know obv a lot of it comes from youíre strong desire to get ahead and be ďsuccessfulĒ and all that. Just think the paradox is that backing off at this moment and deploying some patience is the way to go. Even though itís hard to do and trust.

If we were good friends and you came to me hereís what Iíd say: Iíd challenge you to switch up your strategy. Keep doing everything you are doing away from the tables. Itís perfect. But Iíd challenge you to drop the insistence to keep barreling along doing what youíve been doing. So, play something like 50k (which is still plenty) hands or less each month for the next 2 months. Itís not the hands so much, but make sure youíre playing less than 40hr weeks. Drop the # of tabes/hands per hour by like 20%. Game select harder (meaning mostly Ignition hands) and time of day select more. Play less hours, in better games, for just 2 months, and see what your results are.

Either way youíre gonna be fine. Itís just not possible you wonít with your mindset and lifestyle. But itís just my opinion you should calibrate your strategy a bit. Gl dude!

Ps. I hope this post comes off how I intend it to. Which is just a humble opinion/what Iíd do. And from a place of rooting for you/trying to help. I just never know over text sometimes how things will come off.

Last edited by IntheNow; 10-19-2019 at 12:54 PM.
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Old 10-20-2019, 04:39 AM   #230
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
Whatís up man. Youíre work ethic and mindset are super impressive. Especially your attitude and discipline to keep doing the right things away from the table. But I do think you should switch up your strategy wrt playing.

Life, and especially poker isnít all about hard work. What you do and how you do it are much more important than hard work grinding for success long term. Smart work is actually often ďharderĒ work mentally bc it requires intelligent strategy, calibration, and often fighting your instincts/nature.

There is zero chance youíre playing with a high win rate on hour 10 of the day grinding Chico games. You need to be playing with a high win rate to not be at the mercy of variance. Play in better environments for less hours. Itís not only smarter long term, but short term as well. Thereís a balance to this all obv.

But I donít know anyone that would recommend playing as many hours as you are online. Itís not about being a pussy wrt hard work. Itís about being smart. Thatís what makes poker so hard, just putting in the hours regardless doesnít work. For you, thatís easy. I think you need to fight your nature and do the hard work of backing off a bit.

This might be assumptive to ponder, but oh well, maybe it will resonate and help....do you think deep down your compulsion to put in this many hours comes from a core belief/fear that you arenít good enough to have a high win rate to beat out variance? Or a fear that you wonít make it as a pro at all?

I know obv a lot of it comes from youíre strong desire to get ahead and be ďsuccessfulĒ and all that. Just think the paradox is that backing off at this moment and deploying some patience is the way to go. Even though itís hard to do and trust.

If we were good friends and you came to me hereís what Iíd say: Iíd challenge you to switch up your strategy. Keep doing everything you are doing away from the tables. Itís perfect. But Iíd challenge you to drop the insistence to keep barreling along doing what youíve been doing. So, play something like 50k (which is still plenty) hands or less each month for the next 2 months. Itís not the hands so much, but make sure youíre playing less than 40hr weeks. Drop the # of tabes/hands per hour by like 20%. Game select harder (meaning mostly Ignition hands) and time of day select more. Play less hours, in better games, for just 2 months, and see what your results are.

Either way youíre gonna be fine. Itís just not possible you wonít with your mindset and lifestyle. But itís just my opinion you should calibrate your strategy a bit. Gl dude!

Ps. I hope this post comes off how I intend it to. Which is just a humble opinion/what Iíd do. And from a place of rooting for you/trying to help. I just never know over text sometimes how things will come off.
Spot on.
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Old 10-20-2019, 09:59 AM   #231
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

The small silver lining of running bad aiev is it's objectively bad luck and out of your control. You could instead run just as bad distribution wise then question whether or not you're actually winning since it's harder to judge objectively. Either way it'll turn around big time with the amount of work you're putting in.

No need to justify posting graphs or anything. Unless you have a tight group of poker friends poker can be such an isolating experience especially when going through a rough stretch. I think sharing on this forum can be big for psyche, motivation, etc. because it offers a small sliver of community and feedback. Poker as a career offers none of things but as humans it's something we desperately need for job fulfillment imo. Keep posting and keep working hard!
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Old 10-20-2019, 01:31 PM   #232
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by andees10 View Post
The small silver lining of running bad aiev is it's objectively bad luck and out of your control. You could instead run just as bad distribution wise then question whether or not you're actually winning since it's harder to judge objectively. Either way it'll turn around big time with the amount of work you're putting in.

No need to justify posting graphs or anything. Unless you have a tight group of poker friends poker can be such an isolating experience especially when going through a rough stretch. I think sharing on this forum can be big for psyche, motivation, etc. because it offers a small sliver of community and feedback. Poker as a career offers none of things but as humans it's something we desperately need for job fulfillment imo. Keep posting and keep working hard!
That's just an illusion though since we still have no clue how good or bad we are running distribution wise. It just has to be accepted that we will never know our true winrate (especially because variables are constantly changing) or how good/bad we are running.

+1 to InTheNow, I agree with you OP that in general most people don't work hard enough, but make sure you enjoy your life and have a long term and sustainable approach as opposed to working yourself to the bone.
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Old 10-20-2019, 05:24 PM   #233
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by andees10 View Post
The small silver lining of running bad aiev is it's objectively bad luck and out of your control. You could instead run just as bad distribution wise then question whether or not you're actually winning since it's harder to judge objectively. Either way it'll turn around big time with the amount of work you're putting in.

No need to justify posting graphs or anything. Unless you have a tight group of poker friends poker can be such an isolating experience especially when going through a rough stretch. I think sharing on this forum can be big for psyche, motivation, etc. because it offers a small sliver of community and feedback. Poker as a career offers none of things but as humans it's something we desperately need for job fulfillment imo. Keep posting and keep working hard!
+1, this is such an inspiring thread full of intelligent discourse
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:45 AM   #234
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Hey all, quick update. Haven’t felt like posting.

Nothing has changed except now I’m 50 bi’s (rather than 35 or whatever it was) below ev since October 1st.

I’m just focusing on playing the best that I can, of course that’s way harder than it is under normal circumstances, but I just take lots of breaks.

Came into November really excited to start the new month, too bad I just can’t run normal.

Most every day is the same - I wake up refreshed, positive, and ready to go, then get progressively frustrated throughout the day by losing pots as a favorite.

The saving grace is that it will never get worse than this, I have never ran even close to this far under ev for this many hands; the whole year has been surreal.

Not much else going on, I really have no desire to do anything else or socialize with anyone until I start running at equity.

As always, working even harder will be the way forward.

Jiu jitsu is the highlight of my day, I’m getting a lot of my frustration out in there, I’m progressing really quickly.

When I look back on it all, the year has still been a success. Quit my job, lived in LA, lived in Sweden, have improved a ton as a player and am a winning mid/hi stakes player. Stayed sober. Got engaged.

And this month has been my best yet, ev wise. Every day in November, I have been up in equity. It’s only a matter of variance working in my favor until things are good again.

Last edited by Oladipo; 11-06-2019 at 01:55 AM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:24 AM   #235
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by Oladipo View Post
When I look back on it all, the year has still been a success. Quit my job, lived in LA, lived in Sweden, have improved a ton as a player and am a winning mid/hi stakes player. Stayed sober. Got engaged.

And this month has been my best yet, ev wise. Every day in November, I have been up in equity. It’s only a matter of variance working in my favor until things are good again.
This is the stuff that matters. I'd say just keep doing what you're doing, because the tides of variance will inevitably shift and at last you will find success...but you've already found it.

Have been where you're at and had my mind blown by relentless negative variance over hundreds of hours of live poker including at the time losing the two biggest pots I played all year to a one outer and three outer after the $ got in. It's the most unpleasant thing you can experience playing poker, in my opinion. You will survive and be better for it.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:24 PM   #236
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Keep on keeping on my friend. Hope your luck turns around soon!
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Old 11-07-2019, 06:37 AM   #237
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

@Oladipo are these hands being played at 500nl regular tables? Or even higher? Nick Howard recently just posted on Run it Once https://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/suspi...ovadaignition/.

He says that suspicious activity has been occurring but I would claim that it has been happening since July 2019. I have been fairly quiet about all this because I don't want to make it sound like I am making excuses with my results but I think there is enough circumstantial evidence within the community that I need to speak up.

If anyone else has the same concerns, please pm me. I have reached out to Nick Howard, waiting for a response.
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Old 11-07-2019, 08:19 AM   #238
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

I would argue that Nick Howard's strategies and approach (whilst undeniably very smart for SSNL) shouldn't beat highstakes really anyway, so it could be that the player pool just improved.

On the flip side, from what I have seen reviewing in my CFP there is definitely cheating going on too. Unbelievable tanking in 3bps for example, the timebank is just way too long and the anonymous format makes collusion so so easy too, where even just none obvious card removal effects would make a huge difference (and can also account for running a long way below EV OP).
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Old 11-07-2019, 09:09 AM   #239
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

I got a pm a few weeks ago from someone saying they know 1k/2k winners getting absolutely fisted lately too
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Old 11-07-2019, 09:47 AM   #240
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by PlasticElephant View Post
I would argue that Nick Howard's strategies and approach (whilst undeniably very smart for SSNL) shouldn't beat highstakes really anyway, so it could be that the player pool just improved.

On the flip side, from what I have seen reviewing in my CFP there is definitely cheating going on too. Unbelievable tanking in 3bps for example, the timebank is just way too long and the anonymous format makes collusion so so easy too, where even just none obvious card removal effects would make a huge difference (and can also account for running a long way below EV OP).
This, nick howard's strats can turn into massive losing strats if your opponent knows what you are doing. Also if all of his students play similar strats that can be countered by the same exploits, a sudden change in the meta (or player composition) could be the reason of that.

Gl, man! Keep putting that work! Vamo!
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Old 11-07-2019, 02:36 PM   #241
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

There's obv cheating happening there and has been for a long time. It seems likely that at some point either the cheating will reach a level or a lack of fish will reach a level where games are no longer beatable. I doubt that time is now but it's not like we will know before hand, it's just going to happen.
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Old 11-07-2019, 03:03 PM   #242
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
There's obv cheating happening there and has been for a long time. It seems likely that at some point either the cheating will reach a level or a lack of fish will reach a level where games are no longer beatable. I doubt that time is now but it's not like we will know before hand, it's just going to happen.
Can you eloborate on this? How do you know this for fact?
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Old 11-07-2019, 04:14 PM   #243
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Whats nick howards approach?

good luck OP
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Old 11-07-2019, 04:39 PM   #244
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by Rapidesh123 View Post
This, nick howard's strats can turn into massive losing strats if your opponent knows what you are doing. Also if all of his students play similar strats that can be countered by the same exploits, a sudden change in the meta (or player composition) could be the reason of that.



Gl, man! Keep putting that work! Vamo!


This is the case with any exploitable strategy obviously...
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Old 11-07-2019, 05:04 PM   #245
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

I would definitley agree that the pools have improved so there is a possibility that a reg's winrate will drop. However it cannot be a coincidence that Nick Howard expresses his concerns regarding suspicious activity since August and my study group suspecting suspicious activity since July (Scott (500nl), Neuron (500-2knl) and Bani (200z)- who play a completely different strategy to Poker detox).

I agree with Plastic Elephant. I have seen full time bank tanking (even for very simple deicisions). I see absurd bluffs and lines when relevant blockers are folded. I even see ridiculous value jams when relevant blockers are folded as well.

I also agree with Tyman. Its pretty obvious cheating occours but everyone just deals with it because winrates are so high. Now the pools are tougher, everyone is starting to notice it on their bottom line.

For what its worth, I have received many personal messages (too many to make this a coincidence now) from 500nl+ regs who are expressing these concerns and screening me their graphs. To be completely honest I don't really know what the next step is. I would probably have to run some numbers behind everyones winrate and the probability of every single person running below EV.
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Old 11-07-2019, 05:20 PM   #246
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by PlasticElephant View Post
I would argue that Nick Howard's strategies and approach (whilst undeniably very smart for SSNL) shouldn't beat highstakes really anyway, so it could be that the player pool just improved.

On the flip side, from what I have seen reviewing in my CFP there is definitely cheating going on too. Unbelievable tanking in 3bps for example, the timebank is just way too long and the anonymous format makes collusion so so easy too, where even just none obvious card removal effects would make a huge difference (and can also account for running a long way below EV OP).
You've been arguing this for quite a while, if I recall correctly? However, the evidence doesn't support your argument at all. Maybe it's not surprising considering you have a competing CFP program.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rapidesh123 View Post
This, nick howard's strats can turn into massive losing strats if your opponent knows what you are doing. Also if all of his students play similar strats that can be countered by the same exploits, a sudden change in the meta (or player composition) could be the reason of that.

Gl, man! Keep putting that work! Vamo!
Obviously if you're deploying exploits that your opponents have clairvoyance over throughout the game tree your'e in big trouble. Is that the reality, though?

Ironic that you chime in here. You are literally the poster boy for the struggling player (that theoretically shouldn't be) Nick preaches about all the time. Even if you hadn't once looked at a solver for the past few years, and simply adopted a few of Nick's strategic and most importantly mental game/decision making heuristics, you would have made soooo much more money these past few years.

I couldn't think of a more suitable player that could have benefited from him. It's not too late btw. Recommend his free content on YouTube from a few years ago.
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Old 11-07-2019, 05:29 PM   #247
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Yeah it was a needless point by me really - but should be fairly clear that playing in extremely small pools of very good players mass data analysis is fairly redundant. For a long time bovada did not fit this criteria, and in anon games I also haven't really got my head around the optimal approach anyway. I learnt a lot from Nicks ideas and have a lot of respect for what he did.

Whether his style works is really a silly derail anyway, I apologies for my original point. I'm very interested to see the outcome of this investigation.
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Old 11-07-2019, 05:36 PM   #248
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

Quote:
Originally Posted by skuzlad View Post
I would definitley agree that the pools have improved so there is a possibility that a reg's winrate will drop. However it cannot be a coincidence that Nick Howard expresses his concerns regarding suspicious activity since August and my study group suspecting suspicious activity since July (Scott (500nl), Neuron (500-2knl) and Bani (200z)- who play a completely different strategy to Poker detox).



I agree with Plastic Elephant. I have seen full time bank tanking (even for very simple deicisions). I see absurd bluffs and lines when relevant blockers are folded. I even see ridiculous value jams when relevant blockers are folded as well.



I also agree with Tyman. Its pretty obvious cheating occours but everyone just deals with it because winrates are so high. Now the pools are tougher, everyone is starting to notice it on their bottom line.



For what its worth, I have received many personal messages (too many to make this a coincidence now) from 500nl+ regs who are expressing these concerns and screening me their graphs. To be completely honest I don't really know what the next step is. I would probably have to run some numbers behind everyones winrate and the probability of every single person running below EV.
To be fair, you're going to get an unrealistic sample from the other players, bc you're largely going to get samples from guys losing/running below EV. I've run above ev in this time frame for instance
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Old 11-07-2019, 05:58 PM   #249
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

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Originally Posted by isunkurbttlship View Post
To be fair, you're going to get an unrealistic sample from the other players, bc you're largely going to get samples from guys losing/running below EV. I've run above ev in this time frame for instance
Yeah I was actually thinking about this and ways to mitigate a data bias. I also don't like using "running below EV" as a metric for proving something suspicious is happening. I have seen many regs on other sites run way below EV than some of the samples shown to me.

It would be good if all regs could send me a message regardless if they think something is happening or not. Like I said earlier, I don't really know where I am going with this. Even if we do prove something, I highly doubt ignition/bovada will do anything about it. I guess it will provide some awareness in the community, but I think we all know (and probably choose to ignore) that there is some shady stuff happening.

I am assuming the 500nl 1knl and 2knl pool is very small so a survey approach would potentially be applicable here.

Perhaps something like -

1. Name & Stake
2. Suspicious activity - Y/N
3. If Y,
What types of suspicious activity:
- Collusion
- Multi Accounting
- Superusing
- Botting
- Real time Solver
- Other

I will keep all personal messages confidential. Even if you do not suspect anything please send me a message stating No.

Thanks
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:14 PM   #250
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Re: Success, Sobriety, and Financial Freedom: Out of Poker Retirement and back to Mid/Hi Stakes

I have been seeing Postle poker on zone for a long time and got laughed at when I previously suggested it. Lines that make no sense yet totally own you when they shouldn't. I think the blatant cheating of Postle in live games right in the open might have finally opened the eyes of the naive sheep about what could be happening behind closed doors where it would be far easier and undetectable to get away with it.

Last edited by GarbageReg; 11-07-2019 at 11:25 PM.
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