really? I just ran it on pokerstrategy equilab and it came back at 34%, because I thought 45 seemed to high.
thanks man!

[QUOTE=h_ven;38461923]really? I just ran it on pokerstrategy equilab and it came back at 34%, because I thought 45 seemed to high.
thanks man!
Yeah...combo draw with all outs live is definitely 2-1 dog on turn.

2 and 4 rule is pretty accurate in this spot.

Would you lean more towards Q10 or set of 4s because of the limp call, reducing your fold equity had it not been for the pained call read?

Like your line for sure with the pained call and the one pair read.

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U r correct. Ima idiot!!. 34.1% to win after turn. I was looking a totally different hand. My bad. Please forgive me. W all that said, I believe I still take the same line and play it the same way. Do u call turn w AQ there? What % of times u think AQ folds turn there? Curious to thoughts. Apologize again for confusing the 2 hands on my poker calc (I was running another one that I was reviewing and got them mixed up).

Yes the limp call pf made it tough to fig out. I can see 44 limp call, but the pained (def not hollywooding either) call on flop threw that hand out the window. It didnt feel like Q10 either. If he calls my raise more easily on flop, then I prob take a free card on turn (meta game). I was almost certain it was just top pair, and he cd fold to a $188 (his remaining stack) turn bet. Curious though how often u think AQ folds turn there. Please let me know what % of times u think AQ folds there. I understand its player dependent, but w this type of player i thought 65% of time he folds (w this particular hand scenario). Thoughts?

I think a big part of the expected fold percentage would be your table image. With you being a regular in the room would he know that you would likely play a big draw this way? With unknown players at 1/2 it's very hard to tell if they will over value top pair or be scared to put all their money in.

I'd like to figure the EV if the flush comes in (or the K) by taking a free card v shoving. What % do you think he check folds if you take a free card and hit?

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I don't think I ever played against this kind fellow or that he knows I'm a reg. i mayb seen him one other time or two, but I cd tell he was a pretty solid player. I do feel my image has a lot to do w the hand, but table was only open for a hr w not much info given from either of us leading up to this hand.
If i do take a free card and hit, i strongly feel he check folds to a shove bet for sure. Especially If river is K(heart or nonheart) he folds 90+% of time, any heart (unless Ace) 73% of time, and a non heart 8 - 40% of time. So if I took a free card and hit I wd def bet for value. Mayb $80ish if heart comes, $130 if 8 comes, and $65 if K comes.
Gd question.

is $13 ur normal iso size? i usually bump it up to $15ish or so if there are 3+ limpers.




like some say, it's very villan dependent. if you think he's folding on brick turns because you rep such a big hand, then go for the jam. vs a thinking player, i think you're getting a lot of folds. you rep all the sets(maybe not 44)+all the overpairs, while his ranged is capped at tpgk/draws.

Vs a thinking player do you think he calls the flop with the intention of folding on later streets if bricks hit if shoved on? He has to know when his flop bet is raised that he will more than likely see a shove later in the hand. If he calls knowing he most likely won't improve I think he is likely to take it to the end absent a scare card for him.

If I lead tptk there and get raised I know it is probably an all-in (maybe not there but before the hand ends) or a fold.



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I almost feel like you might be better off betting 80 or 90 on the turn. It might feel less like you are trying to get him to fold...and he has to anticipate you will bet the rest on the river so it feels like an all in bet to him while you are actually only risking half. I think if I was him, I'm folding to your raise on the flop if I'm folding...that five is not a scare card. But if I know for a fact he has AQ, I need some history with the guy before I consider trying to get him to fold it. It's 1/2 NL...I assume they are never going to fold that hand unless I have history that tells me otherwise. How does this guy play in general and what does he think of me?

I'm someone who might fold the AQ there, but if I decide to call the flop...the odds of me folding go way down unless the turn is a scare card. When you shove the turn, it's going to feel like you are trying to make me fold...and why would you want me to fold if you have me beat? Betting 80/90 into me is going to feel like I'm having to go all in on this hand...feel less like you are just trying to run me off...and have me thinking about having to make this difficult decision now and again on the river...also fretting about cards that might come to beat me IF I'm ahead.

Is this correct EV for the hand as it played? Win $353 ($165+$188) 34% of the time for +$120.02. Lose $188 66% for -$124.08. Which would mean needing very little fold equity for +EV.

Still trying to figure total EV with checking and hitting with value bets or a folded shove.

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$13 not usually...but I felt I cd iso 3 to flop during this particular hand w the particular limp players involved. Mainly due to brief history info... I did witness on a few different occasions that 2 of the limpers in this hand actually limp folded in previous hands after a player made it just $10 pf (on one occasion player x folded even after 5 players called $10pf before them. #nitfish). I actually thought about $15, but i thought $13 I cd still get a fold from the 2 supreme fish nits that limped in the hand. After seeing the flop tho, I wish the whole table was in the hand.
Gotta love 1/2 it's strange sometimes. which makes for some unorthodox plays on my part. Many plays I make, people hv no clue why. It's hard to explain, but it always makes perfect since to me.
This cd lead to a long ramble, so I better stop while I'm ahead. (Am I ahead?)

I think some players w AQ here may call the raise on the flop HOPING it goes check check on turn. If it does, then he has to feel AQ is gd after turn. I think if there is a large bet ($100+) on brick turn then AQ cd possibly fold here w so many other hands that rep bigger than AQ. To make it a more likely fold on turn, I like the shove ($188) to put that extra pressure to get a fold. Even if it does look like a big draw, it's still hard to call w just Tptk.
If I check a brick turn, then I might as well say I don't have AA, KK, 2 pair, or set. Then If a wet river card comes to complete my draw, I cd possibly not get paid off too.

Probably not against the average 1-2 player. They don't seem to be able to fold top pair. From this type of player, I think it works more than it wouldn't.

I agree,, dont' konw the exact math.

Are you raising more with better hands? I am

He has to fold much < 65% for this to be profitable.

I think this is a pretty standard hand, would you have posted this if you would have won it?

In one word, No. I primarily posted this hand to try to get opinions from 2 questions I've been wavering on.
My first question) Do u still shove on turn even if u know he has AQ?
My 2nd question) In your opinion, What % of the time does a "thinking player w AQ fold there on the turn? (Just a ballpark estimate is all I'm looking for, I understand its hard to tell wo being there).
This was the only reason for me to post this hand. Whatcha think @h_ven and @boilref and others? Please help a brother out! Thanks so much

Side note: played from 2:20p-9:20p today +$351 (starting today, trying for 100 hrs over next 2 weeks/ 93hrs to go). I hv always played poker on Mother's Day. It takes mind off from not having my mom around on this special day. Happy moms day to all!

1. No, not at 1/2. I have little confidence that general people playing 1/2 will fold AQ in this spot. I guess if I'm trying to damage my image a bit, I could shove knowing I'm theoretically getting some of that money back when he calls like I expect him to (and I hit my hand), while increasing the chances someone who witnesses this event calls my flopped set with top pair next time.

2. I have no idea on the %, but if the 'thinking player' mustered up the stones to call the flop, that 5 on the turn doesn't change much. And a shove really makes it look like you are trying to get him to fold...which being a 'thinking player' he might think about.

Good luck to you OP...

I just subscribed to see how this will play out. I hope you make it.

@soncy THANK YOU. This is exactly what im looking for! It means a lot to know what others think even if I agree or not. Thank u, these opinions have some influence in my game and how to approach various situations. Thanks again for taking the time to answer! Much much appreciation !
@eric stoner thanks for the encouragement and please chime u as much as u can. I learn a lot from the view points of others!! Thanks again!

Also, regarding 2. I certainly can't estimate how often you get called by other players, but the % of time I would fold turn is non-zero (partly because I'll smell your contentedness about your strong draw as strength and decide maybe I was wrong when I mustered up the courage to call the flop raise)...but also, I'm generally kinda nitty--folding is both a strength and weakness of mine. ...Also, if I'm slipping towards tilt or on tilt...it will affect your fold equity....but it could go either way depending on why I'm tilting.

[QUOTE=ButterflySymmetry;38478548]In one word, No. I primarily posted this hand to try to get opinions from 2 questions I've been wavering on.
My first question) Do u still shove on turn even if u know he has AQ?
My 2nd question) In your opinion, What % of the time does a "thinking player w AQ fold there on the turn? (Just a ballpark estimate is all I'm looking for, I understand its hard to tell wo being there).
This was the only reason for me to post this hand. Whatcha think @h_ven and @boilref and others? Please help a brother out! Thanks so much

1. Based on my EV calculation I think shoving is absolutely the correct play. You need very little fold equity to be profitable. Also, as we discussed I think it is +EV over checking based on the fact that you are not very likely to get paid off on any or K.

2. I think the percentage may be low against a "thinking" player. I would put myself in that category and like others said if I am folding it is going to be on the flop absent a scare card. Without being there it is hard to tell, but in an hour playing against you I may realize that you are raising in position to pot-build and control the hand and take over-pairs out of your range thinking you would raise more with those. I think the lead out by the villain makes this hand interesting. What is he trying to accomplish? If he is "trying to find out where he is" then he would have folded to the raise. Does the lead out change your perception of him folding v check calling a pot sized flop bet? Which one is more likely Ax?

[QUOTE=boileref;38483126] Even though this is 1/2 and people hate to fold TPTK, shoving is correct and if you check and a or K hits like Boiler said, it kills the action and your not going to get any more money out of villain.

1. Yeah I still probly shove if you view this guy as snug/tight and somewhat competetent

2. Not sure the exact % either, but I think often enough

[QUOTE=boileref;38483126] I agree. i strongly feel, He leads out because he thinks he has the best hand (and does). Though some wd check/call to disguise the strength of their hand (AQ), or for pot control if they think they cd b up against a bigger hand. It is intriguing tho. I don't mind his line, and I don't mind his small 1/3 pot bet. It is a lil feeler bet, and I just got to gv him credit for a great read and call on the flop. The turn is even a better read and call on his part. Kudos
yes the lead out from him does change my perception of HIM folding. I feel it makes MY hand look much stronger once he leads out into the pf raiser (me), and I still raise his flop bet. Then his Tptk has to shrink up. And once I shove turn it has to shrink up EVEN MORE. But mayb if I just bet $125ish on turn it might look even stronger w him thinking the remaining $63 will b n on river (so really does the same as a shove, but looks stronger). This seems more like i hv made hand that crushes AQ oppose to a huge draw hand.
Not sure.
Great questions!

Sidenote: today 7hrs. And won a George Washington!!. yes, u read that correctly! $1. I chuckle as i type this! (86hrs remain from 100hrs mini goal that ends 5/26)

Keep us updated on the 100hr mini goal please. Nice win today. Lol. Your tweet made me laugh.
Usually I get jealous of poker players that get to play for a living, but 2day you made me feel better about being a pizza delivery driver.