Rayz rayl

This just happened 15 mins ago...

Me: 2k
Button: $1500 stack. Middle aged black guy. New to the table. homely appearance
Bb: $1200 stack. older overweight white man w scruffy beard. Plays abc

5/10nl.
I open w AQ $40 from mp, button calls, bb calls.
Pot $120. Flop is A106
Bb checks, I bet $60, button calls, bb ch/calls.
Pot $400 turn is J.
Bb checks, I check, button checks
Pot $400 River is 4.
Bb checks, I bet $120 w 2nd nuts, button ask dealer how much and tank raises to $300.
Pot is now $820, and its $180 to call.
I ask the dealer if we are allowed to talk heads up, and he says yes. So I ask the V if the Q is gd, and he shakes his head no.


His line of calling otf and checking the turn otb had me puzzled. Kind of thought I was gd, but also to me his appearance looks like he doesn't bluff. Wd he check the K ott. mayb?

To call or not to call?

Snap call once he responds.

I think its a call no matter what your read is. You only need to be good 22% of the time.

That's a tough one with no history/reads on V. What K is in his range? AK (heavily discounted), KQ, KJ, and K10 are also discounted and except for K10, they'd be unsuited wrt . KK is possible but he played it super-passively and it's unlikely that he called with K9-K2 as those are perfect 3bet hands OTB but once again, we don't know his ability. I might be leveling myself but that silent head shake indicates to me that he wants a fold. I typically think that river raises are rarely bluffs at low to mid-stakes but 200bb+ 5/10 is on the border and getting 4.5-1, I'd probably look him up. I'd say V has air (trying to fold out your perceived A) or KK and the odds certainly justify a call.

Not 18%? 180 to win 1000 (820+180)?

KT? I mean that's the only likely K but two things I can think of...he has a baby flush that just got killed probably with the Tc, or V thinks our bet OTR is weak and we are unsure of our flush as if we might have the Tc.

Nah, you don't "win" the money you call with...you already have it, it's not in the pot yet. Regardless clear call even though he obv has the Kc a good amount of the time.

I sheepishly folded.
I think it was an incorrect fold even though he said he had the K afterwards.

Main reason why I folded: absolutely no history w Villain, but more so by his appearance at the table.

I hate to say it, but he had a homely look to him, and I figured he was not the gambling type. More the type that values his money, and I just didn't think he cd b bluffing.
Yep u heard correct...what he was wearing got me to fold. That was how close it was.

After the hand he said he thought I was bluffing the river. He said the way u put the chips out looked like a bluff. I told him that was my intention, and asked if he had it. He continued on just saying he thought I was bluffing.
I asked why not just call if u thought I was bluffing? He told me because he either had it or he didn't.

*Him not betting the turn was strange to me, and fig most players wd bet the K being last to act and 3 way checked.
But then again, w his torn up shirt appearance mayb he didn't want to put money in the pot semi bluffing, and played it very safe.

I'm not so sure on this, and now I kind of wish I called. We will never know.

I have another complex hand that put me in a pickle that I'll post tomorrow. It was even a more difficult decision than my Q hand.

Thanks so much for responding! Hearing this kind of feedback from everyone makes us all be better players. Very much appreciate it.

Currently railing my gd buddy Gary Simms in this Colossus. Hometown hero from Louisville that I play a lot of cash games with at the "Shoe". Real gd dude, and still in it w 11 players left.

seems a little big maybe losing a little value??

My buddy Simms just FINAL TABLED the COLOSSUS!
Gonna b hard to make money tomorrow because I plan to show my support railing my buddy on the feature table. Mayb I'll get up extra early and grind before the start of it.

I have another crazy hand. This one was really puzzling for me.

2/5nl at the Rio.

Me: $900 bb
Utg+1: tourist fish $400 stack
Villain: $1k stack in Sb, 30yr old Asian on the list for 5/10nl game. Great thinking professional poker player. Haven't seen many hands from him. Cool/Calm demeanor.

Utg+1 limps $5, V in sb completes, I check in bb w K5

3 players to the flop and pot is $15.

Flop: 5QK rainbow.
V in Sb over bet leads the pot to $20, I smooth call w my 2 pair, utg+1 folds.

HU. Pot $55
Turn: 2
V leads $30, I raise to $95, v calls.

Pot $245
River: 2
V checks, I bet $160, V grabs for some blacks and check/raises me to $460!

What?!!!

Damn another dilemma!

They making it very tough on Rayz in Vegas!!! Putting me to the test every single day!
But u know what?
This is why I love this game! It's the ultimate test of wits! #thinkinggame #skillgame

So let's think about it...I'm only beating bluffs at this point.
So to call, or not to call?

I tank for awhile, and start talking out the hand. I tell V I don't think u hv KQ, so u either have pocket 5s or K2 or bluff. I don't think u raise w a dry K. So which one is it is the question?????
...he sits stoically like a true professional.

I tank some more...

Let's think about this on a deeper level...

The only bluff hands with his line wd b:
-Villain w sm sort of straight draw like J10. That makes sense w his betting line of leading otf and ott, and then calling my raise ott w a straight draw, and ch/raise bluffing river.
-Maybe pair otf and picked up flush draw ott. ??? That also makes sense w his betting line of leading otf & ott, and then calling my raise on turn w flush draw, and ch/raise bluffing river.

I really can't think of any other type hands I'm beating that V takes this line w.

*It's never AA,KK,AK,QQ w limp action from him in small blind preflop.

so possible made hands he cd have:
-55 makes sense w his line.
-K2 makes sense w his line.
-KQ makes sense w his line...I guess.
What other made hands can it be w his line of action???? Oh yeah, maybe same hand K5, but does he ch/raise me otr w that hand. ???? Wow this is getting tricky.

Mayb he is trying to get me out of a chop and thinks I just have a K.

I know V being a thinking player doesn't put me on AK, KK, QQ, AA since I too didn't raise in the blind preflop. Thus, may b raising to get me to fold to a chop KK22...Q on board knowing I don't have the Ace w my King.

BUT if V knows I don't have those hands mentioned, then he must think I have KQ, K5, K2, or 55 w my betting line.
So w him raising me otr has my mind boggled. Now I'm thinking his raise instead says that he can beat my K5.

Mayb he is just stone cold bluffing...

My head hurts!!!!

What's the play folks???
I'll let u know after I take some aspirin and get some feedback. Thanks

I dont think he bluffs like that. The runout is just pure bricks and you already showed that you have a strong range. Looks alot like 55 or k2 to me.
Really intresting hand tough.

overbet flop and not 3b turn looks like 55 trying to keep action in. I don't think he's trying to bluff you too much here, despite you obviously never being too strong.

If he IS a good pro, I'd discount 55 somewhat and KQ almost always given preflop, and you should be able to discount probably all unsuited combos of K2. Also can't see a good pro overbet lead K2 here...

I'd be super confused sitting in your seat... How's your image? Have you been agro enough pre to give him any reason to just complete his strong hands oop with you in the bb?

I guess I just click call...

Why do you bet the river? What hand do you expect to call you?

IMO 55 or KQ is not in his range. He's a 5/10 player but killing time in a 2/5 game. Higher limit players are raising with 55/KQ instead of trying to get sneaky like a 1/2 player would.

I think the flat when he leads OTF may have been a little hiccup. Let's get some information by raising him right now especially since he limped in pre. And when he calls when you raised him OTT he may have a float in mind. So with his COTR his float is complete. I don't see him having K2 and even if he does he has to feel with your betting pattern you could possibly have a bigger FH with that river card. 2's full is really shallow vs. K's full, Q's full, 5's full. Obviously he doesn't think you have KK or QQ because you def. wouldn't have limped in that spot.

I make the call.

Because it's a limped BvB pot, it's difficult to narrow V's range as much as we'd like. I agree w/ some of the others that you can heavily discount the stronger made hands (AA, KK, QQ, KQ) as they're unlikely to be limped OOP. 55 could go either way. When I flip the read though, it looks like you could either have a weak K or be on a straight and/or flush draw by the turn. All draws bricked OTR and he could be completing the float. Tough to say what V holds but given his range and the reversed read, I make the call.

U all are very smart poker players. Loving the analysis and decision making here.

I'll let the hand ride for until the end of the day, and I'll let u know the result then.

@skills_2106 my image has been a little of everything, but Asian pro is fairly new to the table and only seen a couple orbits of me. During that time I haven't been raising oob and been playing pretty standard.
@battagd1. I bet the river because I think I can get called w any K. I think the 2 otr may now making 2pair, Q on board playing helps me get a call. V cd have put me on Q5 and now counterfeited, and calls w K. Or I cd hv draws when raising the turn, and V calls as a bluff catcher. I cd have went to showdown, and after facing that huge raise mayb I she hv, but I think all Kings wd call me in that spot.
@bluffbenluffed I was kind of thinking the same that he may raise 55 in the sb, and possibly KQ. I personally wdnt, but he may. Plus w me holding a 5 and another 5 on board, I just felt V having 55 was possible, not likely.
@mepsiol and @gtl2p2 I agree w u as well. His line is perfect for 55 and K2 type hand.
@sobo I like how u think. Gd analysis on both hands.

V looks at my River bet, and picks up a collection of blacks and reds in the amount of $460 and gently places them on the felt. I talk out the hand, and he sits comfortably without saying a word.
To be continued...

I love his river check raise, and hate your spot!! Against a weaker opponent, villain can profitably make this play with a wide variety of hands, in my opinion. It portrays a great deal of strength, but because he is a great opponent, I think his range could include 55, K5, Q5, J10, and some Kx hands. Really tough spot for you to call here without at least K5. I would probably sadly fold.

If you break down hand combinations I think you have to call because I don't think he is over betting flop with k2 or q2 and I think he is raising pf with kq, so that only leaves the one combo of 55 left. But my gut says your hand is no good.

I had something written out and then decided I didn't care for it. I am calling the $300 because your hand is a better 2 pair than is on the board and he maybe trying to keep from chopping with a naked K. I also believe he would raise with 55 or KJ+ preflop. J10 is possible, but I probably raise that preflop, depending on table dynamic.

The only issue is that the second 2 seems very harmless and only KQ or K5 should be thin value betting here. I call and expect him to show K5 at best and say "your good" at his worst...but again, I am sitting in KY and not at a poker table in Vegas.

that makes at least 2 of us

GL out in vegas Ray, keep your head up!

END RESULT

So I thought about V ch/raising the river, and it didn't feel right for some reason.
I decided in the end that the V was trying to push me off a hand.
My thinking was kind of like...if he had a big hand, I fig he wd lead out instead of check raising.
I like his line w a big hand until the river ch/raise. The ch/raise otr isn't bad w a big hand, but more times than not I feel he leads.
I'm thinking if he has a hand that beat mine like K2 or 55, then he wd lead and gets a call from a hand like K5 or KQ. I doubt if he wd want to risk it going ch/ch otr w me possibly checking a K5 type hand behind. Therefore, it just didn't feel right.

I tank called, he insta mucked. I didn't even have to show my hand.

Currently playing 5/10nl at the Wynn and down 300ish. Pretty much card dead and bleeding off blinds, and folding on flops. No worries I'll continue to b patient and hopefully it will turn around.
My folds are perfect though...right in the middle of the table.

Thanks for all the input! Great minds out there on this thread!!!

My boy! Nice effin' call...

Am I the only one who tries to hit the muck instead of the center?