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Poker Goals & Challenges Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

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Old 02-26-2016, 01:54 PM   #1
Spin4play
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Join Date: Feb 2016
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Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Hello im spanish poker player, my name is Alvaro, im 22 yo, and I have been playing poker for 2 years now. Moved to spins about 10 months ago and didnt play that much. I am a bit dismotivated at the moment so this is why I decided to do this to challenge myself.

My prop bet is to play 20.000 games at 100$ Spins with at least 2.5%EVroi pre-rakeback in a two months period (equivalent to 61 days).

I want to emphazise in how hard this Prop Bet is and why I'm asking for 3:1 odds, up to 30k$ of my own money. (90k$ of bettors total).

Firstly, I have never done more than 2500-3000 games in a month before until this February, which I have achieved around 6000 games. And I want to play 20.000 games within next two months. The average games/hour an average Spin&Go regular get is around 25-35/h, which would equal to 570-800hrs in 2 months.

Secondly, NO ONE has ever achieved two consecutive 10k game months in Spin&Gos in any stake (at least that im aware of), not to mention that im forced to be +2.5EV pre rakeback, and playing the highest and hardest stake possible filled with regs which is 100$ currently, and being a 2month long challenge makes it even more challenging.

On top of all of this, I have a stable where I will be forced to spend minimum of 10/h week, or 80hours total in next two months which in my opinion will be a ridiculous ammount of pressure on me... But I still think there's a chance I can achieve it. This is my first ever challenge and can cause me a lot of endurance/insommia and random issues I can't expect since I never done something like this.

Conditions:

- I will play 20k Spins at 100$ buyin, even if Pokerstars decides to add higher stakes spin&gos. 2 months starting as soon as possible (61 days) With a minimum of 2.5% evroi pre rakeback.

- If someone of my inmediate family dies, bet will be voided, all medical proofs and documents will be provided.

- If I suffer from a severe sickness during the challenge that clearly impairs my ability to continue, certificated aswell with all documents and proofs needed, bet will be voided.

- If for ANY uncontrolled reason I cant keep playing 100$ Spin&Gos, bet will be reviewed or voided. Few examples: Stars decide to remove all Spin&Gos. Malta decides to Ban online poker...

- Bet won't start until there is at least 10k$ of my own money booked (30k$ from bettors total). Hopefully we can do it as fast as possible.

- Emotionx , reputable TwoPlusTwo member with 1500+ posts, highstakes HUhyper (was leader of 300$ HU division) and currently Spin&Go reg. He has escrowed and taken part of other propbets before, and is willing to Escrow this bet. (Up to debate by popular demand).

- Minimum bet is 300$ (my 100$). All ammounts under this will be cancelled and sent back.

- Everyone who wants to bet has to send to Pokerstars.com/eu Emotionx (Austria) and then post in this thread saying ammount and pokerstars nickname, otherwise bet will be voided. If there is privacy issues you can send 2+2 username "emotionx" a PM with the booking info.

- For maximum transparency I will stream my webcam the whole challenge so no one suspects anyone else is using my account. Keep in mind for obvious reasons I cant show any legible information while im playing.

- If there is close calls, you guys can propose up to three independent judges that don't know me to solve any situation.
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Old 02-26-2016, 02:06 PM   #2
emotionx
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Sick

I confirm that I will escrow this bet unless there is popular demand not to do it, and will hold safe the money of bookings until the bet is over and consensus on the bet has been agreed on with bettors and judges involved.


GLGLGL!
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Old 02-26-2016, 02:26 PM   #3
SANTACE
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Sick probet. Good luck
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Old 02-26-2016, 02:39 PM   #4
Like_a_Fox
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

I think you need to show a graph of your history in spins
gl

/
Fox
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Old 02-26-2016, 02:56 PM   #5
nico0503
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

damn this is crazy

glgl
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Old 02-26-2016, 03:23 PM   #6
Fludae
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
If I suffer from a severe sickness during the challenge that clearly impairs my ability to continue, certificated aswell with all documents and proofs needed, bet will be voided.
Meh, less reason to bet then. The most likely situation for bettors to win against you is if you burn out... which will potentially result in severe sickness, voiding the bet.
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Old 02-26-2016, 04:05 PM   #7
Spin4play
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Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

This is my lifetime spins journey at Stars.com for more information:

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Old 02-26-2016, 04:43 PM   #8
pyr0
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

nick in ps ? following
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:13 PM   #9
Silent-Ghome
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Bet seems too good to be true
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:32 PM   #10
emotionx
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fludae View Post
Meh, less reason to bet then. The most likely situation for bettors to win against you is if you burn out... which will potentially result in severe sickness, voiding the bet.
Obviously burning out isnt considered a "severe sickness" ... severe sickness is life threatening things like heart failure, cancer, traffic accident, broken arms/hands and such. Feeling sick because grinding too much is not a severe sickness.
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:42 PM   #11
debacle
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

yeah what's your sn?
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:42 PM   #12
debacle
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by emotionx View Post
broken arms/hands
nah depends whether dominant hand or not
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:54 PM   #13
watergun7
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

What's the chip EV needed for this bet to be breakeven?
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:55 PM   #14
watergun7
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Also last year there was a player who played over 10k games in November and almost 19k games in December...
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:55 PM   #15
nateofclubs
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Join Date: Mar 2013
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Only been playing 2 years and profitably grinding 100$ spins at this kind of volume? Pretty impressive.
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:55 PM   #16
Max Cut
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by watergun7 View Post
What's the chip EV needed for this bet to be breakeven?
35.98 chips/game = 2.5% pre-rakeback ROI at 5% rake.
 
Old 02-26-2016, 05:59 PM   #17
p2 dog, p2
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

guess that extra 1% rake at WPN makes a big difference eh Max
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Old 02-26-2016, 06:07 PM   #18
nateofclubs
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin4play View Post
This is my lifetime spins journey at Stars.com for more information:

It's been a while since I used spinlyzer - can you remind me what the numbers in the right column mean, '0 reg'. I'm guessing that means the percentage of games you played where neither of your two opponents are regs, but I'd just like to confirm.
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Old 02-26-2016, 06:09 PM   #19
Max Cut
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by p2 dog, p2 View Post
guess that extra 1% rake at WPN makes a big difference eh Max
ayup
 
Old 02-26-2016, 06:14 PM   #20
Spin4play
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Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 29
Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by watergun7 View Post
Also last year there was a player who played over 10k games in November and almost 19k games in December...
Thats true, sorry i mess that. He finish with a huge negative ev result, like -75k ev pre rb between both months, i have to do at least 50k positive ev pre rb.
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Old 02-26-2016, 06:47 PM   #21
meatpies19
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut View Post
35.98 chips/game = 2.5% pre-rakeback ROI at 5% rake.
It's 39 chips/game
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Old 02-26-2016, 07:07 PM   #22
Crackdel29
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Join Date: May 2013
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

How we can know that are you playing all time and not some of your flatmates?
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Old 02-26-2016, 07:10 PM   #23
Spin4play
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Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 29
Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crackdel29 View Post
How we can know that are you playing all time and not some of your flatmates?
Im going to copy paste from my first post:


- For maximum transparency I will stream my webcam the whole challenge so no one suspects anyone else is using my account. Keep in mind for obvious reasons I cant show any legible information while im playing.
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Old 02-26-2016, 07:27 PM   #24
Max Cut
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by meatpies19 View Post
It's 39 chips/game
Yeah, sorry, I put the win rate by mistake. It should be 39.7 chips per game.
 
Old 02-26-2016, 07:29 PM   #25
watergun7
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Re: Spin&Go PropBet: Two months, 20k games, 100$ stakes, 2.5% EVroi pre rakeback.

OK. Can you also work out the CEV needed for the BET (3:1 odds) to be breakeven?
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