Hello im spanish poker player, my name is Alvaro, im 22 yo, and I have been playing poker for 2 years now. Moved to spins about 10 months ago and didnt play that much. I am a bit dismotivated at the moment so this is why I decided to do this to challenge myself.

My prop bet is to play 20.000 games at 100$ Spins with at least 2.5%EVroi pre-rakeback in a two months period (equivalent to 61 days).

I want to emphazise in how hard this Prop Bet is and why I'm asking for 3:1 odds, up to 30k$ of my own money. (90k$ of bettors total).

Firstly, I have never done more than 2500-3000 games in a month before until this February, which I have achieved around 6000 games. And I want to play 20.000 games within next two months. The average games/hour an average Spin&Go regular get is around 25-35/h, which would equal to 570-800hrs in 2 months.

Secondly, NO ONE has ever achieved two consecutive 10k game months in Spin&Gos in any stake (at least that im aware of), not to mention that im forced to be +2.5EV pre rakeback, and playing the highest and hardest stake possible filled with regs which is 100$ currently, and being a 2month long challenge makes it even more challenging.

On top of all of this, I have a stable where I will be forced to spend minimum of 10/h week, or 80hours total in next two months which in my opinion will be a ridiculous ammount of pressure on me... But I still think there's a chance I can achieve it. This is my first ever challenge and can cause me a lot of endurance/insommia and random issues I can't expect since I never done something like this.

Conditions:

- I will play 20k Spins at 100$ buyin, even if Pokerstars decides to add higher stakes spin&gos. 2 months starting as soon as possible (61 days) With a minimum of 2.5% evroi pre rakeback.

- If someone of my inmediate family dies, bet will be voided, all medical proofs and documents will be provided.

- If I suffer from a severe sickness during the challenge that clearly impairs my ability to continue, certificated aswell with all documents and proofs needed, bet will be voided.

- If for ANY uncontrolled reason I cant keep playing 100$ Spin&Gos, bet will be reviewed or voided. Few examples: Stars decide to remove all Spin&Gos. Malta decides to Ban online poker...

- Bet won't start until there is at least 10k$ of my own money booked (30k$ from bettors total). Hopefully we can do it as fast as possible.

- Emotionx , reputable TwoPlusTwo member with 1500+ posts, highstakes HUhyper (was leader of 300$ HU division) and currently Spin&Go reg. He has escrowed and taken part of other propbets before, and is willing to Escrow this bet. (Up to debate by popular demand).

- Minimum bet is 300$ (my 100$). All ammounts under this will be cancelled and sent back.

- Everyone who wants to bet has to send to Pokerstars.com/eu Emotionx (Austria) and then post in this thread saying ammount and pokerstars nickname, otherwise bet will be voided. If there is privacy issues you can send 2+2 username "emotionx" a PM with the booking info.

- For maximum transparency I will stream my webcam the whole challenge so no one suspects anyone else is using my account. Keep in mind for obvious reasons I cant show any legible information while im playing.

- If there is close calls, you guys can propose up to three independent judges that don't know me to solve any situation.

Sick

I confirm that I will escrow this bet unless there is popular demand not to do it, and will hold safe the money of bookings until the bet is over and consensus on the bet has been agreed on with bettors and judges involved.


GLGLGL!

Sick probet. Good luck

I think you need to show a graph of your history in spins
gl

/
Fox

damn this is crazy

glgl

Meh, less reason to bet then. The most likely situation for bettors to win against you is if you burn out... which will potentially result in severe sickness, voiding the bet.

This is my lifetime spins journey at Stars.com for more information:

nick in ps ? following

Bet seems too good to be true

Obviously burning out isnt considered a "severe sickness" ... severe sickness is life threatening things like heart failure, cancer, traffic accident, broken arms/hands and such. Feeling sick because grinding too much is not a severe sickness.

yeah what's your sn?

nah depends whether dominant hand or not

What's the chip EV needed for this bet to be breakeven?

Also last year there was a player who played over 10k games in November and almost 19k games in December...

Only been playing 2 years and profitably grinding 100$ spins at this kind of volume? Pretty impressive.

35.98 chips/game = 2.5% pre-rakeback ROI at 5% rake.

guess that extra 1% rake at WPN makes a big difference eh Max

It's been a while since I used spinlyzer - can you remind me what the numbers in the right column mean, '0 reg'. I'm guessing that means the percentage of games you played where neither of your two opponents are regs, but I'd just like to confirm.

ayup

Thats true, sorry i mess that. He finish with a huge negative ev result, like -75k ev pre rb between both months, i have to do at least 50k positive ev pre rb.

It's 39 chips/game

How we can know that are you playing all time and not some of your flatmates?

Im going to copy paste from my first post:


- For maximum transparency I will stream my webcam the whole challenge so no one suspects anyone else is using my account. Keep in mind for obvious reasons I cant show any legible information while im playing.

Yeah, sorry, I put the win rate by mistake. It should be 39.7 chips per game.

OK. Can you also work out the CEV needed for the BET (3:1 odds) to be breakeven?