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Skuz's Road to 500nl+ 2018 Skuz's Road to 500nl+ 2018

06-21-2018 , 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baannii4
one sec let me get a pen and paper and write this down so i dont forget

"use the high fold equity generated by my nitty image to raise only my premium hands " ok got it


"limping with a wide range actually defines ranges more than raising with a tight range" wow inspiring
"multiway pots are minimal ev, so you should limp to reduce the field" couldn't have said it better myself

ok so raising pre is bad because we need to bluff post but bluffing in limp pots is good because we have less of a range advantage and have to go through more people... ok cool i think im getting the gist of it
I don't know what it's like down in AUS... but in the US if you're not bluffing/winning a bunch in non showdown pots then you're simply not going to win a lot long term.

Live players definitely notice and play back against the guy that raises a bunch pre and is agro post. Due to that you have no fold equity and are just looking to hit a big hand with marginal holdings and get paid. Good luck with that strat long term buddy.

This next part is MAGIC bro, did you know you can profitably play a bunch of hands AND still maintain a tight snug image? It's called limping. And bro... being at a range disadvantage/ face up ranges works in you're ****ing favor! It makes it that much easier to get pros/regs to fold.
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06-21-2018 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by upswinging
I don't know what it's like down in AUS... but in the US if you're not bluffing/winning a bunch in non showdown pots then you're simply not going to win a lot long term.

Live players definitely notice and play back against the guy that raises a bunch pre and is agro post. Due to that you have no fold equity and are just looking to hit a big hand with marginal holdings and get paid. Good luck with that strat long term buddy.

This next part is MAGIC bro, did you know you can profitably play a bunch of hands AND still maintain a tight snug image? It's called limping. And bro... being at a range disadvantage/ face up ranges works in you're ****ing favor! It makes it that much easier to get pros/regs to fold.
this is u:
> bluff = needed to profit (bc players tight)
> bluff = bad bc players not tight

if u would like to discuss how to type more than a sentence without contradicting urself free feel to pm me and stop trolling this thread. im not gonna reply anymore
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06-21-2018 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skuzlad
At the moment yes. I would say 75% of my time is directed towards poker.

Currently my short term goal is to move up to 500nl (obviously)

Long term I am not really sure. I want to try complete 1million hands for this year and then reassess what I want to do with poker after 2018.

If all goes well I would like to move abroad for 2 years and grind both live and online and then hopefully have enough funds to reinvest that into a business when I return. I personally prefer playing online but the online scene is not so great at the moment. If Galfond's site is successful I will probably move overseas and grind that and try and compete with the very best.

Pokerstars does however look incredibly soft these days and would not be surprising if you saw me back over there (when Australia sorts out their online poker regulation). However I am just a little bit worried about playing and supporting a site that is going in a very negative EV direction for the overall poker environment
Where you planning on going if you don't mind me asking?

Yeah I play 50nl hu with very little cash experience and I'm beating it at 4bb/100, so you would likely crush on the site.

I think that's kinda debatable, Stars lowering RB obviously sucks (and sucks for me as I would probably have an extra 10-15% BR with decent RB), but in terms of other things, Stars is just SO much better than other sites it's not even close. Hell on PartyPoker zoom, you can't even take notes when you move to a new table as it removes the player's name (nor can you do it by looking at the last hand either like Stars), 888 has made no changes in years and neither site are really trying to do anything interesting, even taking feedback Stars is a lot better. Obviously there are issues with Stars, but Stars has just laid such excellent groundwork and other sites refuse to try and do anything really interesting apart from slight structure changes, increasing rakeback or just not being Stars, I think Stars still leads the market in a variety of ways (communication, taking feedback, software, MTTs by far and having big soft fields).

Just my 2c, but as an MTT player, I've tried talking to a few other websites about trying a few different things specifically when it comes doing Zooms and new Zoom variants, the way they brush me off and act as if changing blind structures from 10-12 minutes or adding 2k chips to the starting stack will somehow drastically change things for them, but adding completely new variants won't is just off putting, so while I completely agree that Stars has gone in a negative direction, they still get a lot right more than most.
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06-21-2018 , 08:07 PM
Fair play guys, some of you don't half talk ****.
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06-21-2018 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by upswinging
Ah yes. Those epic Aussie games that you guys seem to think is normal for the rest of the world. Maybe if you left your dinky little country or if you realized how few posters live in aus you wouldn't make such ignorant posts as above or give such horrible advice.

i can see how not raising everything would be dumb... if you were a little poker tool on your first heater- where raising atc would be profitable . For everyone else that's actually been around poker, raising pre with trash and opening yourself up to stuff isn't the best strat when you can limp with a much wider range (that's somewhat protected) and actually play post flop poker where a winning poker players true edge is.
#triggered
Skuz's Road to 500nl+ 2018 Quote
06-21-2018 , 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by upswinging
Are all aussies just ****ing ******ed or what? Maybe it has something to do with all the poisonous **** down there idk. You absolutely need to be bluffing regs and pros, and limped pots are one of the last spots you can bluff with impunity. That doesn't mean you should be over bluffing fish in these spots. What is so hard to understand about that?
Do you mind keeping this strat to yourself bro, we dont want the games getting harder than they already are. Especially for Aussies like myself that need to play against these other Aussie regs.
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06-21-2018 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
I totally agree with you but your wr will be higher with a limping strategy in low stakes live specifically.

Not talking 5/10 or higher (or any 6 max online obv) but the dynamics of live low stakes poker favor a very simple limping strategy that realizes a higher EV than a binary raise/fold strategy.

Underlined being the important aha.
Yeah fair enough. Makes sense. Sounds like you have a well constructed limping range so it should work quite well.

Also loving the banter in the thread. Pure comedy.

Quote:
Are all aussies just ****ing ******ed or what?
If Matt kirk is the only one representing AUS in high stakes then I guess you have a valid point hahahah

Quote:
Where you planning on going if you don't mind me asking
?

Probably Europe. Would love to live in Germany or Eastern Europe. Otherwise maybe some south American country. Honestly anywhere that doesnt have absurd live rake.

Also have played on 888 and Stars and yeah stars is much better. 4 tables of zoom would be nice.
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06-22-2018 , 12:27 AM
If you're not overlimping in LLSNL on the regular, you're not doing it right.
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06-22-2018 , 12:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
If you're not overlimping in LLSNL on the regular, you're not doing it right.
#balance aha
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06-22-2018 , 12:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
If you're not overlimping in LLSNL on the regular, you're not doing it right.
You know you are not doing it right when you have to google what "LLSNL" is. Rip my Live career
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06-22-2018 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
If you're not overlimping in LLSNL on the regular, you're not doing it right.
can u provide some examples? high spr makes doing this regularly seem pretty bad and the small amount of hands that can benefit from high spr spots just do better raising imo. if the players limping before you are playing shorter than 100bb then there might be more of a case for limping. there are also like heaps of other variables, some more important than others that can affect a decision like this. it's why i think the other guy is almost certainly misapplying his strat
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06-22-2018 , 02:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baannii4
can u provide some examples? high spr makes doing this regularly seem pretty bad and the small amount of hands that can benefit from high spr spots just do better raising imo. if the players limping before you are playing shorter than 100bb then there might be more of a case for limping. there are also like heaps of other variables, some more important than others that can affect a decision like this. it's why i think the other guy is almost certainly misapplying his strat
I'm not sure where you're getting 'high spr' from, at least not in Australian casinos. The reason overlimping is good is because we've resigned to the fact that two things are given... A) extremely high chance of multiway pots and B) we have little fold equity preflop. Some hands (22-55 as an example) are not strong enough to isolate given A and B. The EV of overlimping is > 0 so we should play these hands, but the EV of isolating is definitely lower than the EV of overlimping. Hands that have poor multiway playability as well as poor visibility will often struggle in isolated pots.

Also just because we insta-fish-tag someone who limps on a Stars 6max game doesn't mean limping is automatically never a good idea ever. Also I'm really only talking about overlimping and not so much open limping, but that too has a place on some tables.

Re the SPR stuff, I'm mainly referring to 100bb cap games like the entire Aus market. The 1/2 in London obv plays way deeper than the Melbourne 1/2.

Last edited by meale; 06-22-2018 at 02:33 AM.
Skuz's Road to 500nl+ 2018 Quote
06-22-2018 , 04:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
I'm not sure where you're getting 'high spr' from, at least not in Australian casinos. The reason overlimping is good is because we've resigned to the fact that two things are given... A) extremely high chance of multiway pots and B) we have little fold equity preflop. Some hands (22-55 as an example) are not strong enough to isolate given A and B. The EV of overlimping is > 0 so we should play these hands, but the EV of isolating is definitely lower than the EV of overlimping. Hands that have poor multiway playability as well as poor visibility will often struggle in isolated pots.

Also just because we insta-fish-tag someone who limps on a Stars 6max game doesn't mean limping is automatically never a good idea ever. Also I'm really only talking about overlimping and not so much open limping, but that too has a place on some tables.

Re the SPR stuff, I'm mainly referring to 100bb cap games like the entire Aus market. The 1/2 in London obv plays way deeper than the Melbourne 1/2.
thanks, those are some very good points

by high spr i mean higher than a normal single raised pot. generally in limped pots ur going to find urself in situations where u win proportionally smaller pots (for a much higher rake % btw) with nutted hands that might've been raised instead for a spr that allows us to make more money when we do hit. these types of hands aren't really concerned with generating fold equity post. why wouldn't raising 22-55 (perhaps for a smaller size where u arent really concerned with fold equity) to work with a more profitable spr be better than limping?

however i assume that overlimping as a strategy isn't concerned with the ev difference of opening vs limping but more so the difference between 0 ev folds and limping. sure it might be slightly better to overlimp k10o instead of folding since we have an 'edge' but i think people are really oblivious to how close the ev's run when there are more people in the pot. u might have an edge but u will have significantly less opportunity to realise it. not to mention a million other variables that are in play like how likely villains are to raise behind (are we calling if they raise because everyone else called? what was the point of limping?), rake structure, stack sizes, positions, the hands we limp (are we limping hands that can get outflushed, set over setted?), etc
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06-22-2018 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
why wouldn't raising 22-55 (perhaps for a smaller size where u arent really concerned with fold equity) to work with a more profitable spr be better than limping?
Basically if I can pay $5 to try flop a set (overlimp strat) instead of $25-30 (iso strat), I'll do it. Usually I think with 3-5 other players in the hand we're going to be able to extract plenty of value anyway and we'll probably still be able to get stacks in if we bet big enough. In all honesty the EV of iso vs overlimp with these sorts of hands is probably somewhat similar but I think overlimping is more appealing because I feel like it might reduce variance a bit and it also makes life easier. Like if you iso every time and only hit a set 1 in 8 times, the other 7 times you're basically torching your iso. If we're only betting when we have it post then I think it makes sense to try "get it" for as cheap as possible.

Quote:
however i assume that overlimping as a strategy isn't concerned with the ev difference of opening vs limping but more so the difference between 0 ev folds and limping. sure it might be slightly better to overlimp k10o instead of folding since we have an 'edge' but i think people are really oblivious to how close the ev's run when there are more people in the pot. u might have an edge but u will have significantly less opportunity to realise it. not to mention a million other variables that are in play like how likely villains are to raise behind (are we calling if they raise because everyone else called? what was the point of limping?), rake structure, stack sizes, positions, the hands we limp (are we limping hands that can get outflushed, set over setted?), etc
Absolutely wholeheartedly agree with this. The games I play in online are 5/10/20 with an ante of 5. This makes the discussion of fold vs limp a bit more interesting. Like if it folds to you in CO with K8o or A8o or some borderline hand that you don't really want to open but could be profitable to play. I usually always just open fold (even with the ante) because if we DO have a profitable limp the EV is so so so tiny that the EV of making your life easier and playing more hands per hour is actually worth considering.
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06-22-2018 , 09:01 AM
Meale has given some good answers that are in the right direction.

I'll add:

Live no limit is almost an entirely different variant of poker. I'm not sure most people realize the magnitude of complexity each additional VPIP'ing player adds to the game tree.

To be clear, live poker is a joke and a basic ABC tag strategy should net you 5-7bb/hr.

That said, the dynamics of live play create an incredibly complex game from a max exploit perspective. When one person limps cutoff in 6 max, this spot is easily solvable. When 7 people limp live and we have 77 otb, this is a very complex spot. The factors that make this complex are limping ranges (which can be surprisingly strong), stacks sizes, and the "schooling" effect of fish playing hands together and in effect playing a combined range that will have extreme board coverage. This means we will be in situations where we almost always under-realize our equity post flop.

Once you can open your mind beyond bolded (which is very difficult for those with an online background or who have watched too many doug polk videos), you will start making alot of money in the variant of poker that many of us call LLSNL.

Someone once posted in NVG their idea for a new variant of poker: "what if everyone had to pay a big blind, and all 9 players took a flop?" And I responded, "thats live poker, and i've been trying to solve this for years" and got a few laughs.
Skuz's Road to 500nl+ 2018 Quote
06-22-2018 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Meale has given some good answers that are in the right direction.

I'll add:

Live no limit is almost an entirely different variant of poker. I'm not sure most people realize the magnitude of complexity each additional VPIP'ing player adds to the game tree.

To be clear, live poker is a joke and a basic ABC tag strategy should net you 5-7bb/hr.

That said, the dynamics of live play create an incredibly complex game from a max exploit perspective. When one person limps cutoff in 6 max, this spot is easily solvable. When 7 people limp live and we have 77 otb, this is a very complex spot. The factors that make this complex are limping ranges (which can be surprisingly strong), stacks sizes, and the "schooling" effect of fish playing hands together and in effect playing a combined range that will have extreme board coverage. This means we will be in situations where we almost always under-realize our equity post flop.

Once you can open your mind beyond bolded (which is very difficult for those with an online background or who have watched too many doug polk videos), you will start making alot of money in the variant of poker that many of us call LLSNL.

Someone once posted in NVG their idea for a new variant of poker: "what if everyone had to pay a big blind, and all 9 players took a flop?" And I responded, "thats live poker, and i've been trying to solve this for years" and got a few laughs.
lmao bang on mate. well said.
Skuz's Road to 500nl+ 2018 Quote
06-22-2018 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
Basically if I can pay $5 to try flop a set (overlimp strat) instead of $25-30 (iso strat), I'll do it. Usually I think with 3-5 other players in the hand we're going to be able to extract plenty of value anyway and we'll probably still be able to get stacks in if we bet big enough. In all honesty the EV of iso vs overlimp with these sorts of hands is probably somewhat similar but I think overlimping is more appealing because I feel like it might reduce variance a bit and it also makes life easier. Like if you iso every time and only hit a set 1 in 8 times, the other 7 times you're basically torching your iso. If we're only betting when we have it post then I think it makes sense to try "get it" for as cheap as possible.



Absolutely wholeheartedly agree with this. The games I play in online are 5/10/20 with an ante of 5. This makes the discussion of fold vs limp a bit more interesting. Like if it folds to you in CO with K8o or A8o or some borderline hand that you don't really want to open but could be profitable to play. I usually always just open fold (even with the ante) because if we DO have a profitable limp the EV is so so so tiny that the EV of making your life easier and playing more hands per hour is actually worth considering.
i understand what ur saying about overfolding post. i literally had the same thought dilemma when i was playing live and i found myself in these spots a lot. i didn't want to raise a hand that i had a high chance of giving up on post. but i realised it literally doesn't matter. imo live poker is all about manipulating spr so that opponents make more mistakes. let's say u limp in a multiway pot with 22. u hit ur set eventually and u bet some ridiculously small amount because the pot is tiny and by the river hands that had eq against u either have u beat or are folding for ur largest bet (which is still tiny btw). stacks will rarely go in unless someone is coolered. however, isoing pocket 2's to $15 and getting 5 callers seems like it would be a good middle ground between opening and limping (with the benefits of playing with a more reasonable spr for when u do hit).

regarding ur 2nd point, i completely agree. why fatigue urself/waste time/reduce hand hourly (for online) playing a limp strat? not to mention wasting time actually developing it off the table. there are so many other things u can develop in ur game that would actually increase ur winrate significantly

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Meale has given some good answers that are in the right direction.

I'll add:

Live no limit is almost an entirely different variant of poker. I'm not sure most people realize the magnitude of complexity each additional VPIP'ing player adds to the game tree.

To be clear, live poker is a joke and a basic ABC tag strategy should net you 5-7bb/hr.

That said, the dynamics of live play create an incredibly complex game from a max exploit perspective. When one person limps cutoff in 6 max, this spot is easily solvable. When 7 people limp live and we have 77 otb, this is a very complex spot. The factors that make this complex are limping ranges (which can be surprisingly strong), stacks sizes, and the "schooling" effect of fish playing hands together and in effect playing a combined range that will have extreme board coverage. This means we will be in situations where we almost always under-realize our equity post flop.

Once you can open your mind beyond bolded (which is very difficult for those with an online background or who have watched too many doug polk videos), you will start making alot of money in the variant of poker that many of us call LLSNL.

Someone once posted in NVG their idea for a new variant of poker: "what if everyone had to pay a big blind, and all 9 players took a flop?" And I responded, "thats live poker, and i've been trying to solve this for years" and got a few laughs.
like i said above, who cares about under realising equity. spr is literally all that matters. for example, if everyone in the game is playing 40bb stacks then limping is equivalent to opening 2.5x. u can almost always achieve a more desirable spr for 77 by not over limping.

it's kinda weird that u agree that the spot is impossible to solve due to a plethora of variables with different weights affecting the decision but u are adamant about it being best. not only that, u haven't even really provided sufficient reasoning or theories as to why it could be better.

also fwiw i played live before moving to online so im not entirely a close minded online player
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06-22-2018 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baannii4
let's say u limp in a multiway pot with 22. u hit ur set eventually and u bet some ridiculously small amount because the pot is tiny and by the river hands that had eq against u either have u beat or are folding for ur largest bet (which is still tiny btw). stacks will rarely go in unless someone is coolered
Look I'm not trying to attack or get defensive, but this cleary shows you are very disconnected from the live environment. I've clogged up someone elses thread enough on the subject though.
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06-22-2018 , 02:57 PM
I make way more playing against people who fold and with very little variance compared to bloating pots pre and trying to hit big hands against people that won't fold.

Granted, I play i games where there's maybe only 2 fish and a bunch of regs/pros so overlimping/ trying to look like a weak reg/nit and bluffing a ton is the most ev. Again, I have no idea what AUS games are like.
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06-22-2018 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Look I'm not trying to attack or get defensive, but this cleary shows you are very disconnected from the live environment. I've clogged up someone elses thread enough on the subject though.
yup you've definitely made a lot of posts about how great limping is and haven't given a single respectable reason as to why
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06-24-2018 , 08:35 PM
What did you start your roll off with
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06-24-2018 , 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doctorflush
What did you start your roll off with
For Ignition - I started off with $750 USD. However I started at 50nl and took me around 4-5 weeks to build a roll for 200nl ($6,000USD - 30 Buyins).

2 Week Volume update:



(sorry kizzah for no colours) EDIT: Just realised I forgot to add 4 hours of live poker on the 16th June

Really poor from me. Missed my 35 hour week on both weeks. Study hours have been a little bit lackluster as well.

Having a tough time balancing watching world cup and playing many hours. Unfortunately the games play from 22:00 - 4:00 AEST. During this time the 200nl pool is pretty inactive. I am going back to my regular schedule this week and probably limit myself to only watching the 22:00 game (exceptions for Australia, Japan and Germany). Sleeping late and waking up late is super non-gto.

I also have not been as productive in my other areas - languages,Gym and Video editing. My friend who usually keeps me accountable has gone to Europe for holiday/family. Therefore I have been a little bit lazy on this front.

Will post month graph this week and obviously try post 2 videos this week.
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06-26-2018 , 12:31 AM
New video out now



Quite a few decent sized pots in highlight reel this week.

I think I played quite well despite hitting a rough turn of events during the middle of the week.

I still think I am making quite a few mistakes out of the big blind. Definitely my weakest position in terms of WR. Been trying to run a script on Pio for BB spots but keep getting a tree error. I have contacted Pio support to see if I am doing something wrong. Otherwise been looking at individual spots. A lot of the output I am getting from Pio is not really relevant for the pool despite node locking. Ranges and assumptions are extremely wide BvB even with my relatively large sample size. Need to continue to work on this in the next couple of weeks.
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06-26-2018 , 06:27 PM
Forgot to post update on thread (for those who don't want to watch the videos):

Graph for 18th- 24th June



Progress up until the 24th of June

29/50 Buyins
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06-26-2018 , 09:21 PM
Solid rostucko
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