I didn't come to any great conclusions on this hand but it was still helpful for me to break down some ranges on this texture in this situation. I was also coming up on an hour of reviewing this one hand which seems excessive.
Time to play some poker.
Hero: K
Q
We 3b KQo from the BB against a CO open, CO calls. CO is 34/20 over a very small sample. He could either be a looser reg or a fish depending on where his stats go.
For the purposes of this HH I'm going to assume villain is a reg playing on the looser side rather than a fish bc that would complicate a lot of assumption.
We'll give villain an opening range of 27%
AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
And lets assume that he folds 40% of the time to a 3b. And we'll also assume he 4bets QQ+/AK. We can also assume he 4b bluffs but its impossible to say which holdings he chooses as 4bet bluffs so we won't arbitrarily remove any bluff combos from his range.
So he's going to continue with appx 16% of hands, taking out his value 4bets he continues with appx 11% of hands. I weighted some of the worse hands in this range to 65% of combos.
AA-77,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-A8s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,[65]66-22,AJo,KJo,A7s-A2s,T8s,97s,76s,65s,54s[/65]
There are a lot of ways I could approach this hand. Instead of deciding how I ought to best play THIS holding I'm going to decided how to best play my entire range on this texture.
Because of the overall looseness of villains in these games I 3bet depolarized, pure value when I am OOP. The game are anonymous and balancing my preflop range with bluffs serves no purpose since the do not fold enough to make bluffs +ev preflop. There is a chance that I could make my bluffs +ev or at least nuetral ev by playing better postflop, but I'm unsure if that is true.
My default 3betting range here
AA-TT,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs
Flop: Q
J
7
Villain reaches flop with 157 combos. 117 of these combos connect in a way that he would be likely to continue with. Meaning he only folds about 25% of the time.
My range completely crushes his range here. But my perceived range probably includes many SCs and suited Ax that whiff this flop. So i get into a spot where if he knew my range I could bluff a ton on this board, but since he probably expects my range to be wider/weaker here I shouldn't bluff as recklessly. That said, I have very few hands that wight want to bluff that don't have a ton of equity. AK/AT have plenty of equity to bluff. TT is really the only hand that I should probably just totally give up with.
I can easily bet all of my Qx for value, and my AK/AT as bluffs. The question is whether or not AJ/KJ are strong enough to vbet on the flop. My standard is to check these hands but looking at the types of hands he continues with it may be a flop vbet. When I hold AJ, less than 1/3 of his continuing range to my flop bet will be ahead of me. Meaning I can easily vbet flop assuming he doesn't raise often. With KJ, closer to 40% of his range will beat me on this flop, meaning I can still vbet but only if he doesn't raise much at all.
Turn: Q
J
7
8
Villain get to turn with 95 combos
This spot gets tricky with AJ/KJ. villain will have a lot of pair+draw hands in his range. 99/TT/89/T8/JT/J9 that will not want to fold to my bet, but they may choose to raise my bet. They may also decide to bluff once I check making c/c attractive bc it can induce a bluff as well as avoids the possibility of facing a tough decision if raised.
Even a hand like KQ faces similar problems. It has the benfit of beating all villains Jx, but the weaker Jx will sometimes raise. We beat appx 62% of villains range for getting here. He is unlikely to fold much of this range at all given that so much of it is pair+ draw. So we can vbet KQ if we assume villain raises only rarely, but we need to c/c if we assume villain raise often.
River: Q
J
7
8
J
River is a clear check with even AQ. AA or KK could be a bet IF we think villain is unlikely to fold any of his Qx to a bet and we expect him to bluff well when we check. But neither of those seems likely so check seems best with any 1 pair hand.
Our vbetting range here is only boats+ since we don't 3 bet 9T and we dont barrel turn with Jx. To have a balanced bluff range we can only bluff a few AK/AT combos. Tho its possible we may have decided to give up with all of our bluffs on the turn given how rarely villain is folding. If we were deeper we could possible check everything with a plan of c/raising boats and some bluffs as well as c/c some Qx and c/f some other Qx. But stacks here are such that if villain bets his only bet size is to jam. That said, checking boats still might be better if we think he mucks Qx often to the jam but jams bluffs and Jx when checked to.