Is it more likely for you to make mistake by being too tight or too loose agg in big pots?

Gl

I think I'm likely to make more nitty mistakes than aggro mistakes. I had a tendency to just barrel off GTO combos when weaker regs clearly don't like folding certain hand classes, but have improved a bit there. So right now I might make more nitty mistakes than aggro ones.

Tyty!

I just check. If you brakeeven player about 15% of sessions you would win 400+BB (session being 1.5k hands). So you probably play lower variance style, which might cost you some EV.
Obv it might be just variance.

Hey buddy, nice p&c and very helpful theory posts as well here, I really like your blog :-)

May I ask how many hands you´ve played on NL50 so far and how many tables you play?

Cheers

I might give up a lot of marginal spots, but wouldn't say I play a low variance style. Obviously my losing sessions have been bigger in magnitude than winning ones, so I've just experience more to the downside :-) I normally don't read too much into 70k hand stretches, but this was just interesting to me. I had a 100k+ hand breakeven stretch last year.

Thanks buddy! Glad to hear that.

I've played about 150k hands at 50nl and usually 3 zoom tables at once. Sometimes when I'm applying new concepts I drop down to 2.

Sub’d, you seem like you have a great skill set to achieve in poker

That´s a lot bro, did you give NL100 a shot so far?

Yeah I did in the end of last year. Played about 8k hands or something and had to move back down. Pretty much been breakeven since then. I'm not a 8bb+ crusher by any means so not expecting things to happen fast.

Hey Ship!

I'm planning to move from 10z to 25z soon. What were the differences for you between these stakes? Did you change anything in your game?

Week 7: Good start to the week but still not able to book a decent winner.

No didn't change much if at all! :-) Not much of a difference between regs IMO, but maybe a little less recs than on 10z. Regs are likely very similar and you won't start too see a lot of overbets and the like before you get to 50z and higher. When you get to 50z you could study more defending vs overbets and flop 3bets etc.

Interesting, thanks!

Curious what your BR was when you moved up to 25z then 50z?

Your graph looks like mine. Some days it's our job to lose the minimum, but it's easy to maximise the losses in those sessions by playing too long and making bad cools because "sigh, surely they can't have it again. Call. FFS!".

If that sounds like you, if you're able to quit sessions early, you'll transform your win rate.

I had a pretty aggressive BRM in the start. Think I shotted 50z with 20-25BI.

Nah doesn't really sound like me. I feel like it's one of my strengths to not let emotions affect my game, which was good last year but even better this year. I do some minor stuff if I'm actually tilted like playing a bit faster, wanting to win a stack before I quit, not taking as many notes etc. But it rarely gets out of hand and that's something I'm very happy about where I've seen improvement.

Only thing I'm worried about still is that I'll start losing motivation to grind. I've seen signs of the lack of motivation already, but it's not that bad. I get over it pretty fast.

I'd like to have a winrate of ~5bb/100, and if that is my true winrate I should expect these kinds of swings very frequently.

Pretty sick to see that kind of swings on NL50z from a player who I would classify as somehow competent from your posts.
Would love to see a few hands you played and you are unsure about.

I have a study group I do hand/session reviews with. Not posting a lot of hands in uNL or my PGC anymore.

Don't know what your assumptions are wrt variance. But from what I've studied and seen variance, with low-medium single digit winrates these swings are common.

It would be different if I'd see myself as a sicko. But I don't, and it would be naive to think I can avoid losing months or 15BI+ downswings at a significant frequency.

How do you work on, or what techniques do you use to keep your motivation up during downswings? ...I wouldn't call what you are in for a downswing really, seems more like a slow period. Like you said, 15BI swings should be common and even greater are likely gonna happen during a full year.

For short-term stress management I can recommend using one of Finlands greatest natural resources... ice and ice-baths It is very difficult to care about a bad session when you are freezing your nuts of. Literal blue balls.

I try to keep a good balance between poker and life in general. I'm sticking to a good routine that is realistic and split up my sessions to one in the morning before work and one after. I never have to think about playing 4 hours straight or anything like that. Quick session in the morning, quick session in the afternoon. After this I have time to do whatever I want. Doing this I know I will have played about X amount of hands closing the year, and those long-term results are the only thing that matter. Obviously not this easy but definitely helps!

I completely agree with your take on variance. I'm happy I haven't had a 30BI+ downswing yet, and one will come sooner or later. No way to avoid it unless you are crazy good.

This advice deserves a couple hearts

I take cold showers daily and try to ice-bathe once a week :-)

Hey Ship,

Completely sympathise with the BE stretchs, when you have a full time job and it's hard to get volume in a very standard BE stretch can feel very long. When the heater comes you'll know you deserve it and be able to enjoy the upswing that bit more!

Have you ever been tempted to try out other sites? I imagine you're improving very quickly against the tougher stars pool though

Please is 10 bi up and down in a week now called "variance". Gl ship nothing to worry about, how u play your downswings are what define u as a poker player

Thanks bossman! Yup, these stretches come and go. :-)

Definitely improving quite a bit playing the zoom pool and not just bumhunting. But one of my goals this year were to try another site. Haven't got to it yet though.

It comes either from A. inexperience or B. they are actually a top crusher in their games. If it's B, they probably already know what variance looks like with ok/decent winrates, so most likely it's A anyway. During periods of heat I've gotten a bit blind for negative variance too, so can't really judge anyone for that. But it's important to be aware of what's likely to happen and what's not.

Thanks man. Feeling pretty good all things considered and the year has only started :-)

Thaaaaaanks buddy! Glad you like it. I just like the format: good volume, easy to try out new stuff, pool has been looking relatively soft lately etc.. I will play reg tables from time to time though! Especially during shots.

He likes doses of pain as quickly as they can be administered obviously.

Just found this thread and really enjoy it. Your results so far this year definitely seem like some negative variance judging by what I just read from you in this tread. Do you have a graph or bb/100 over all of your 50nl play - not only this year? Mabye you posted somewhere but I did not find it.
I play the same stake and am always curious about the results of the better regs. Do you think a true winrate of 10-12bb/100 is possible despite paying 6-7bb/100 in rake? I figure any player with that winrate would move up more or less immediatly so I dont expect to find them in the pool, but considering all the fish I feel it should be attainable for someone who doesnt lose anything vs regs (which most regs obviously do because of the high rake)

Gl with your play and I look forward to reading more!