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Shipping nickles in 2020 [10-100 Zoom] Shipping nickles in 2020 [10-100 Zoom]

03-28-2020 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parsons Grinder
This thread is like a training site with no subscription.
I'm glad it helps :-)

I would highly recommend RIO 30-day free essential.

Henry Lister's videos are amazing, should check those out at least!
03-28-2020 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
3 street poker breakdown:

We open on the BTN and BB calls. The most common of spots.

Flop comes:
K97

BB checks.

And no, not all Kxx are range bets. This flop gets checked 50% of the time. The reason is that K97r is a bit more connected. Lots of possible straight draws and pairs for the BB.

There are some good things going on for BTN. We have all AA, AK, KK, KQ, 99, 77. BB definitely doesn't have all these hands. When we have a massive nut advantage we want to have overbets. 15% of our range overbets. This is not a clear small bet or overbet board, so we do a little of everything. AK5r is a board that is a clear almost only overbet or check because of a obvious nut advantage where villain is massively capped. 866ss is a clear small bet or check board because of no nut advantage and villain is likely to do a lot of x/raising, and we don't want to bloat the pot with a range that has a nut disadvantage.

BB best hands are K9 (all combos probably), K7s, some 77, 97s and some KQ combos. That's somewhere around 30 combos, so villain can go ahead and raise most of these + some bluffs to balance that out. Depending on our sizing BB x/r about 8-15% OTF.

BTN has many value combinations so we are able to bet often. We decide to bet almost all our straight-draws to the nuts and also mix a lot of hands with backdoor straight/flush -draws as bluffs. The hands that have potential to become nuts on the river are higher frequency bluffs. The more good turn cards we have the more we bet the flop with the specific combo.

BTN mostly overbets the strongest top pairs+ and hands that block BB strongest top pair hand. The smaller bets are done with weaker part of the value range and also value combos that block villains likely continuing hands, like KK.

BTN bets 1/3 and BB calls.

Turn comes:
4
(K974)

BB checks.

What are the best and worst cards for BTN? Obviously the A is a superior card for BTN because button bets most AK, AA, A9 and Ax with backdoor equity. BTN range here usually has proportionally more strong Ax hands than BB. The situation would be a bit different on a more lower and drier flop that connects better with BB, here BTN would check back a lot of Ahi. And when BTN bets it's not Ahi hands as often, but BB would float more Ahi hands because they more often have 2 overs and some backdoors.

The worst cards for BTN is cards that pair the board, because BTN won't bet all 9x and 7x, but BB calls all of those. Also cards like T/J are "bad" for BTN because BTN has way more offsuit strong broadways and backdoor air that BB doesn't have as often. So BB has some more direct draws that improve BB range.

The 4 is somewhat neutral and does not bring in any strong hands for either range. So most strong hands OTF for BTN are as strong on the turn. This is where BTN usually wants to polarize and overbet or check. Here it doesn't make much sense for BTN to bet 9x and weak Kx anymore, because BTN will only get called by better most of the time.

So BTN now overbets the strongest of his range and bluffs. So what bluffs should BTN choose here? The most obvious hands are draws, especially those that are draws to the nuts and include a . Even hands that are "complete air" but blocks strong top pairs and include a and that can bluff on a river card. Gotta remember that many hands are mixed, and the more bluff potential the hand has right now and on the river the higher the betting frequency.

BTN bets 1.5x pot and BB calls.

River comes:
8
(K9748)

8 is a decent card for BTN because BB can't call too many gutshots OTT without it being a combodraw. The river gives BB some 2 pairs though. BTN will now have more straights, sets and two-pair (villain raises some of these either OTF or OTT), so BB is mostly capped OTR.

BTN has a normal sizing on the river and also an overbet shove, but mostly an overbet shove for over 2x the pot because of how capped BB is. So BTN will shove many 2 pairs, sets and straights. As a bluff BTN will shove hands that block BB's most likely top pair bluffcatchers and possible straights. For normal sizing BTN bets top pair hands and weaker 2 pairs, and bluffs for this sizing with hands that have somewhat weaker blocking properties.

BTN shoves for >2x pot and BB folds.

Final board:
K9748
Hey man, gotta say that's an awesome post! Glgl bro Must be nice doing all this theory work on your bangin setup
Just a minor thing, because you said BB can't call the turn with gutshots. JT is an 8outer straight draw (Q or 8), I'm not sure if you missed that, but I'd assume you think he's also folding those to a turn overbet?
03-28-2020 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by r00vam
Hey man, gotta say that's an awesome post! Glgl bro Must be nice doing all this theory work on your bangin setup
Just a minor thing, because you said BB can't call the turn with gutshots. JT is an 8outer straight draw (Q or 8), I'm not sure if you missed that, but I'd assume you think he's also folding those to a turn overbet?
Thanks! :-) Yeah everything is a blast on the setup!

BB has to fold almost any draw, but calls pair + draws because of the set/2p blocker. Even low FD's with a non-nut straight draw barely makes it into the calling range! JT without a flushdraw is very close in EV. Actually didn't see JT double gutter while making this, but even that gets folded most of the time OTT vs 1.5x. I don't know what overbet size is best though, usually ranges from 1.25x-2x.
03-28-2020 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
Thanks! :-) Yeah everything is a blast on the setup!

BB has to fold almost any draw, but calls pair + draws because of the set/2p blocker. Even low FD's with a non-nut straight draw barely makes it into the calling range! JT without a flushdraw is very close in EV. Actually didn't see JT double gutter while making this, but even that gets folded most of the time OTT vs 1.5x. I don't know what overbet size is best though, usually ranges from 1.25x-2x.
And the SD value and additional equity.
03-28-2020 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
3 street poker breakdown:

We open on the BTN and BB calls. The most common of spots.

Flop comes:
K97

BB checks.

And no, not all Kxx are range bets. This flop gets checked 50% of the time. The reason is that K97r is a bit more connected. Lots of possible straight draws and pairs for the BB.

There are some good things going on for BTN. We have all AA, AK, KK, KQ, 99, 77. BB definitely doesn't have all these hands. When we have a massive nut advantage we want to have overbets. 15% of our range overbets. This is not a clear small bet or overbet board, so we do a little of everything. AK5r is a board that is a clear almost only overbet or check because of a obvious nut advantage where villain is massively capped. 866ss is a clear small bet or check board because of no nut advantage and villain is likely to do a lot of x/raising, and we don't want to bloat the pot with a range that has a nut disadvantage.

BB best hands are K9 (all combos probably), K7s, some 77, 97s and some KQ combos. That's somewhere around 30 combos, so villain can go ahead and raise most of these + some bluffs to balance that out. Depending on our sizing BB x/r about 8-15% OTF.

BTN has many value combinations so we are able to bet often. We decide to bet almost all our straight-draws to the nuts and also mix a lot of hands with backdoor straight/flush -draws as bluffs. The hands that have potential to become nuts on the river are higher frequency bluffs. The more good turn cards we have the more we bet the flop with the specific combo.

BTN mostly overbets the strongest top pairs+ and hands that block BB strongest top pair hand. The smaller bets are done with weaker part of the value range and also value combos that block villains likely continuing hands, like KK.

BTN bets 1/3 and BB calls.

Turn comes:
4
(K974)

BB checks.

What are the best and worst cards for BTN? Obviously the A is a superior card for BTN because button bets most AK, AA, A9 and Ax with backdoor equity. BTN range here usually has proportionally more strong Ax hands than BB. The situation would be a bit different on a more lower and drier flop that connects better with BB, here BTN would check back a lot of Ahi. And when BTN bets it's not Ahi hands as often, but BB would float more Ahi hands because they more often have 2 overs and some backdoors.

The worst cards for BTN is cards that pair the board, because BTN won't bet all 9x and 7x, but BB calls all of those. Also cards like T/J are "bad" for BTN because BTN has way more offsuit strong broadways and backdoor air that BB doesn't have as often. So BB has some more direct draws that improve BB range.

The 4 is somewhat neutral and does not bring in any strong hands for either range. So most strong hands OTF for BTN are as strong on the turn. This is where BTN usually wants to polarize and overbet or check. Here it doesn't make much sense for BTN to bet 9x and weak Kx anymore, because BTN will only get called by better most of the time.

So BTN now overbets the strongest of his range and bluffs. So what bluffs should BTN choose here? The most obvious hands are draws, especially those that are draws to the nuts and include a . Even hands that are "complete air" but blocks strong top pairs and include a and that can bluff on a river card. Gotta remember that many hands are mixed, and the more bluff potential the hand has right now and on the river the higher the betting frequency.

BTN bets 1.5x pot and BB calls.

River comes:
8
(K9748)

8 is a decent card for BTN because BB can't call too many gutshots OTT without it being a combodraw. The river gives BB some 2 pairs though. BTN will now have more straights, sets and two-pair (villain raises some of these either OTF or OTT), so BB is mostly capped OTR.

BTN has a normal sizing on the river and also an overbet shove, but mostly an overbet shove for over 2x the pot because of how capped BB is. So BTN will shove many 2 pairs, sets and straights. As a bluff BTN will shove hands that block BB's most likely top pair bluffcatchers and possible straights. For normal sizing BTN bets top pair hands and weaker 2 pairs, and bluffs for this sizing with hands that have somewhat weaker blocking properties.

BTN shoves for >2x pot and BB folds.

Final board:
K9748
This is great stuff! and very scary that players in my pool are thinking this deeply about spots (I see you at the tables every now and again)

I had a question about your strategy here. When you the solver overbets 15%, does that mean you are also trying to use a multiple sizing strategy on the flop?

I feel this is very difficult for any human to balance, if you end up putting too much value or bluffs in one sizing it becomes very easily exploited.

I would probably approach this by running sims of different single bet sizings to find the one which gives the highest IP EV. I ran some sims for this board and 33% was the best sizing, betting 76.65% frequency. Then I looked if you bet 33% with your range and it results in a 0.29% loss of EV. So I would personally simplify to betting 33% with range which you suggest my not be a good strategy.

Do you think the EV generated from mixing large cbet, small cbet and check outweighs the potential mistakes you might make balancing a mixed strategy? It also makes multi tabling harder, but I guess that isn't too relevant when just looking at what strategy is best.

These strategy posts are really great content btw
03-28-2020 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bossman0161
This is great stuff! and very scary that players in my pool are thinking this deeply about spots (I see you at the tables every now and again)

1) I had a question about your strategy here. When you the solver overbets 15%, does that mean you are also trying to use a multiple sizing strategy on the flop?

2) I feel this is very difficult for any human to balance, if you end up putting too much value or bluffs in one sizing it becomes very easily exploited.

3) I would probably approach this by running sims of different single bet sizings to find the one which gives the highest IP EV. I ran some sims for this board and 33% was the best sizing, betting 76.65% frequency. Then I looked if you bet 33% with your range and it results in a 0.29% loss of EV. So I would personally simplify to betting 33% with range which you suggest my not be a good strategy.

4) Do you think the EV generated from mixing large cbet, small cbet and check outweighs the potential mistakes you might make balancing a mixed strategy? It also makes multi tabling harder, but I guess that isn't too relevant when just looking at what strategy is best.

These strategy posts are really great content btw
Thanks bossman! Yeah its nice to see 2+2 ers every now and then :-)

1) I use 33% and 150% in game on this flop (in my sims I use 33, 75 and 150. On this flop it mixes between all sizings). Yes I am trying to balance 2 sizings, it's hard though and I am probably unbalanced. But I have a set of "rules" to which sizings I use, so it will balance somewhat. Not sure it's the best idea, just what I'm used to right now.

2) Yes very difficult and I am for sure not doing it even close to perfect.

3) Did you use the same exact flop in your sims, what about sizings? My sims like to check only ~25% time on Khi when both lowcards are <= 8 and bet 1/3 sizing, but on this texture it checks more and uses several sizings. You should definitely range bet K97o 1/3 if the EV loss is insignificant! I did not test betting 33% with range, just assumed this has a bigger loss than K63r for example. Thanks for this, please share your sim if you want

4) Whenever you can simplify a strategy, DO IT. But having an idea why some textures might have several sizings is good, because it increases your overall understanding of the game and you can be more comfortable in your simplifications if you implement them.

I don't have a lot of experience in GTO+ but know the basics. So there is a chance I have some errors in my sims too.

Thanks for really good questions and points, will definitely remember these and look into it more.

Last edited by Shipnickle; 03-28-2020 at 03:14 PM.
03-28-2020 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
Thanks bossman! Yeah its nice to see 2+2 ers every now and then :-)

1) I use 33% and 150% in game on this flop (in my sims I use 33, 75 and 150. On this flop it mixes between all sizings). Yes I am trying to balance 2 sizings, it's hard though and I am probably unbalanced. But I have a set of "rules" to which sizings I use, so it will balance somewhat. Not sure it's the best idea, just what I'm used to right now.

2) Yes very difficult and I am for sure not doing it even close to perfect.

3) Did you use the same exact flop in your sims, what about sizings? My sims like to check only ~25% time on Khi when both lowcards are <= 8 and bet 1/3 sizing, but on this texture it checks more and uses several sizings. You should definitely range bet K97o 1/3 if the EV loss is insignificant! I did not test betting 33% with range, just assumed this has a bigger loss than K63r for example. Thanks for this, please share your sim if you want

4) Whenever you can simplify a strategy, DO IT. But having an idea why some textures might have several sizings is good, because it increases your overall understanding of the game and you can be more comfortable in your simplifications if you implement them.

I don't have a lot of experience in GTO+ but know the basics. So there is a chance I have some errors in my sims too.

Thanks for really good questions and points, will definitely remember these and look into it more.
I don't think there is error in your sims (although our ranges may differ slightly), I just didn't run it with multiple sizings. The way I approach each board is to run the sim with several different single sizes (25%, 33%, 50%, 66%, ..., 150%) and then use which ever single size gives highest EV for IP. In this case 33% had the highest EV.

So when you run the sim with only the 33% option (no other bet sizes), I think the solver bets more frequently as it has more nutted hands in the small size (without the overbet option) so also adds more marginal bets.

I think trying to balance a 150% and 33% definitely has lots of merit on a board like T42r. Hands like JJ are essentially the nuts but need lots of protection. For now I'm going to try balance the one size strategy and then maybe work in more sizes as I improve.

I am currently running sims of the 74 flop subset to find the highest EV size on each board and then try and balance the single sizing.

I am pretty awful at SRP in position I think I far too frequently bet small with my range, thankfully BB x/r frequency is pretty abysmal too at 25z. I think overbets are super valuable on the flop because people spazz really hard sometimes against it.

Hope that all makes sense
03-31-2020 , 09:34 AM
Please forgive me for the volume. But hey, I've beaten my minimum goal of 10k hands every month so far! We are slowly approaching my graduation, after that we up the volume goals.

March:


YTD:




Thanks to everyone that reads this PG&C!
03-31-2020 , 10:42 AM
Nice boomswitch towards the end of the month!
03-31-2020 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bossman0161
I don't think there is error in your sims (although our ranges may differ slightly), I just didn't run it with multiple sizings. The way I approach each board is to run the sim with several different single sizes (25%, 33%, 50%, 66%, ..., 150%) and then use which ever single size gives highest EV for IP. In this case 33% had the highest EV.

So when you run the sim with only the 33% option (no other bet sizes), I think the solver bets more frequently as it has more nutted hands in the small size (without the overbet option) so also adds more marginal bets.

I think trying to balance a 150% and 33% definitely has lots of merit on a board like T42r. Hands like JJ are essentially the nuts but need lots of protection. For now I'm going to try balance the one size strategy and then maybe work in more sizes as I improve.

I am currently running sims of the 74 flop subset to find the highest EV size on each board and then try and balance the single sizing.

I am pretty awful at SRP in position I think I far too frequently bet small with my range, thankfully BB x/r frequency is pretty abysmal too at 25z. I think overbets are super valuable on the flop because people spazz really hard sometimes against it.

Hope that all makes sense
Yes it makes sense! I like the approach. It's probably an unnecessary struggle to try balance flops with a bunch of sizings.

I agree with the x/r frequency, you can get away with betting small on almost any board, so you are probably not making a mistake. Not only do they defend too little by raising but also not calling enough.
03-31-2020 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parsons Grinder
Nice boomswitch towards the end of the month!
Yeah well I like shipping nickles my way.
03-31-2020 , 01:45 PM
Thanks to one of the better 2+2:ers I noticed I'm defending way too loose preflop, considering rake. I'm doing some labwork to fix this leak atm. Being the aggressor we are less sensitive to rake since we don't go to the flop 100% of the time, but taking the passive line preflop we are very sensitive to rake. I did know we need to tighten up a bit, but didn't know we need to be this tight.

Building reasonable GTO ranges without a preflop solver is a pain in the ass though, but definitely worth it. Rake is actually making us burn money with the bottom of range in standard preflop ranges that do not consider rake, especially if we are facing somewhat decent opponents.
04-04-2020 , 06:58 AM
I made a "quick-fix" to my preflop leaks, because I don't have enough time or computing power to run every spot through GTO+. I just use http://www.zenithpoker.com/preflop/ ranges that are somewhat close to what monker spits out for 500nl.

The adjustment I made to these ranges to account for micro-stakes rake is that I use "vs 3x open" ranges as my ranges for vs 2.5x open. So if villain actually opens 3x I need to be even tighter than the ranges I use.

I also use Zenithpoker "vs 3b" ranges, and use "vs large 3b" as my vs normal 3b ranges. I think that gets pretty close to what is optimal for microstakes.

As opening ranges I use Snowie preflop ranges for 2.25x that are optimized for rake at micros. This is way tighter than I opened before.

A little refresher to my preflop game. Feels good.
04-04-2020 , 07:52 AM
This is great stuff, I’ve probably been going a bit too extreme, basically 3b/fold pre other than in bb, not sure if this is the best approach or not but if I flat too many hands I just find myself pissing money away
04-04-2020 , 07:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UAC
This is great stuff, I’ve probably been going a bit too extreme, basically 3b/fold pre other than in bb, not sure if this is the best approach or not but if I flat too many hands I just find myself pissing money away
Probably the way to go. Even if blinds rarely squeeze enough I don't think it's good to cold call much in this rake environment. Another adjustment to those ranges I talked about is trying to avoid cold calls, even if there are some in those ranges.
04-04-2020 , 08:11 AM
Ive changed to 3b/fold except BB ofc and a small CC on the BTN vs EP/MP. Makes decisions alot easier + because the rake where marginal decisions becomes unprofitable. Was thinking of 4bet/fold OOP also......
04-04-2020 , 08:31 AM
******************** NEW FREEROLL **********************

I had fun helping out Fubar_TV and Brigov. So I could offer another freeroll if people are interested.

I will pick the 2 first posters. If there are more people interested I can see what I can do to help everyone.

Same qualifications as earlier:
Post a graph of your >10k previous hands

The freeroll includes:
Analysis of your stats
Analysis of your ~30min gameplay video (recorded with OBS or similar)

I'm not an expert but I like to help. I improve too by helping others.

You now have a chance to get upgraded from Whale to Fish ;-)

Last edited by Shipnickle; 04-04-2020 at 08:51 AM.
04-04-2020 , 10:40 AM
Nice thread. Decent content.
Good luck, Nickelshipper
04-04-2020 , 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubar_TV
Ive changed to 3b/fold except BB ofc and a small CC on the BTN vs EP/MP. Makes decisions alot easier + because the rake where marginal decisions becomes unprofitable. Was thinking of 4bet/fold OOP also......
I think this is reasonable. We can flat 3bets OOP but we just need to be a bit tighter. It's also another dynamic when you close the action. Flatting a CO open OTB for example is different because 1) rake 2) risk you get squeezed.
04-04-2020 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pennypusher
Nice thread. Decent content.
Good luck, Nickelshipper
Thank you very much, Pusherofpennies! ;-)
04-04-2020 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
******************** NEW FREEROLL **********************

I had fun helping out Fubar_TV and Brigov. So I could offer another freeroll if people are interested.

I will pick the 2 first posters. If there are more people interested I can see what I can do to help everyone.

Same qualifications as earlier:
Post a graph of your >10k previous hands

The freeroll includes:
Analysis of your stats
Analysis of your ~30min gameplay video (recorded with OBS or similar)

I'm not an expert but I like to help. I improve too by helping others.

You now have a chance to get upgraded from Whale to Fish ;-)
Hey Shipnickle,

You're beating the stakes I am trying to shot take (well was..). Would love your opinion on some of my play because I'm worried I'm missing some huge leaks that I'm just blind too

After the last 10k hands it would be lovely to get a little reassurance that I'm not a massive whale, and if i am then I would love a few pointers

04-04-2020 , 12:27 PM
On mobile right now, but would love to take advantage of this, can post graph later today
04-04-2020 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
******************** NEW FREEROLL **********************

I had fun helping out Fubar_TV and Brigov. So I could offer another freeroll if people are interested.

I will pick the 2 first posters. If there are more people interested I can see what I can do to help everyone.

Same qualifications as earlier:
Post a graph of your >10k previous hands

The freeroll includes:
Analysis of your stats
Analysis of your ~30min gameplay video (recorded with OBS or similar)

I'm not an expert but I like to help. I improve too by helping others.

You now have a chance to get upgraded from Whale to Fish ;-)
This is like my first 10k hands played in years, so although it is going the right way, a lot of it is likely positive variance, so would appreciate the review if possible.

04-04-2020 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bossman0161
Hey Shipnickle,

You're beating the stakes I am trying to shot take (well was..). Would love your opinion on some of my play because I'm worried I'm missing some huge leaks that I'm just blind too

After the last 10k hands it would be lovely to get a little reassurance that I'm not a massive whale, and if i am then I would love a few pointers

Quote:
Originally Posted by UAC
This is like my first 10k hands played in years, so although it is going the right way, a lot of it is likely positive variance, so would appreciate the review if possible.

PM me your discord (or skype) and I'll add you. :-)
04-04-2020 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shipnickle
******************** NEW FREEROLL **********************

I had fun helping out Fubar_TV and Brigov. So I could offer another freeroll if people are interested.

I will pick the 2 first posters. If there are more people interested I can see what I can do to help everyone.

Same qualifications as earlier:
Post a graph of your >10k previous hands

The freeroll includes:
Analysis of your stats
Analysis of your ~30min gameplay video (recorded with OBS or similar)

I'm not an expert but I like to help. I improve too by helping others.

You now have a chance to get upgraded from Whale to Fish ;-)
If u have +10k and record a video of 30 mins guys .. take up on his offer... recommended..

Fubar

      
m